伊朗与海合会成员国关系研究

伊朗与阿拉伯海湾合作委员会成员国是隔海相望的近邻,但地理位置的接近并未使双方成为好邻居、好伙伴,反而加重了海合会成员国对伊朗扩张野心的担忧。伊拉克战争后,原本由伊拉克和海合会联手制衡伊朗的“三角关系”被破坏,海湾局势随着伊朗的“被崛起”以及伊朗核问题的演变而面临深刻的变化。本文试图从伊朗的扩张意图和海合会成员国的担忧、海合会成员国遏制伊朗的战略以及目前双方较量的关键问题等方面,分析伊朗与海合会成员国之间的关系,并探讨这一关系的未来走向。     

伊朗与海合会成员国关系研究

伊朗与阿拉伯海湾合作委员会成员国是隔海相望的近邻,但地理位置的接近并未使双方成为好邻居、好伙伴,反而加重了海合会成员国对伊朗扩张野心的担忧。伊拉克战争后,原本由伊拉克和海合会联手制衡伊朗的三角关系被破坏,海湾局势随着伊朗的被崛起以及伊朗核问题的演变而面临深刻的变化。本文试图从伊朗的扩张意图和海合会成员国的担忧、海合会成员国遏制伊朗的战略以及目前双方较量的关键问题等方面,分析伊朗与海合会成员国之间的关系,并探讨这一关系的未来走向。     

冷战后美国中东战略的调整与伊朗核问题

新一届美国政府成立后,其对伊朗核问题的立场成为国际社会广泛关注的热点问题。伊朗核问题解决的方式,主要取决于美伊双方,但在全球化的今天,美国和伊朗走向直接对抗甚至爆发战争的可能性越来越小,双方更可能以全方位外交谈判的方式来解决美伊之间的矛盾。     

冷战后美国中东战略的调整与伊朗核问题

新一届美国政府成立后,其对伊朗核问题的立场成为国际社会广泛关注的热点问题。伊朗核问题解决的方式,主要取决于美伊双方,但在全球化的今天,美国和伊朗走向直接对抗甚至爆发战争的可能性越来越小,双方更可能以全方位外交谈判的方式来解决美伊之间的矛盾。     

美国与以色列在伊朗核问题上的共识与分歧

美以均坚决反对伊朗拥有核武器,且始终认为伊朗发展核技术旨在制造核武器,因此两国主张严格限制伊朗核活动。这是长期以来美以在伊朗核问题上的基本共识,美以现政府仍持有此共识。但由于美国把伊朗核问题置于海湾乃至全球安全战略框架中考虑,伊朗核问题只是其安全战略框架的构成要素之一。除了伊朗核问题,美国也同样关注伊拉克问题、阿富汗问题等其他中东问题。而以色列则把伊朗核问题看作维护其国家安全的重中之重。两国的安全战略目标在范围和轻重缓急上存在差异。因此,尽管美以两国均主张严格限制伊朗的核活动,但在限制手段和限制方式等方面存在分歧。     

叙利亚与伊朗准联盟关系浅析

自伊朗霍梅尼革命以来,叙利亚就与伊朗在政治、军事和安全领域保持着准联盟关系。27年来,叙伊准联盟关系经历了产生、发展和成熟三个阶段,其构建的基础主要是共同的安全利益,分别为:对抗伊拉克萨达姆政权、制衡土以军事联盟和抗衡美以特殊关系。伊战后,美国推行“大中东计划”,指责叙伊准联盟关系是美国民主改造中东国家的绊脚石。面临美国的打压,叙伊针锋相对,进一步密切了关系。2006年7月爆发的黎以冲突是叙伊同美以两大对抗派别矛盾激化的结果。为分化和瓦解叙伊准联盟,美国采取拉拢叙利亚、遏制伊朗的“区别对待”战略。未来叙伊两国正式结盟对抗美国的可能性不大,但只要两国面临共同的安全威胁,其准联盟关系就会存在下去。叙伊准联盟关系在一定程度上遏止了美以在中东推行的霸权主义,客观上也为其他大国中东外交提供了更多的回旋余地。     

新世纪以来美国对伊朗的政策研究

在小布什政府时期,阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争及伊朗核问题等构成了美国与伊朗关系的特殊背景。依据小布什政府在此背景下实施的一系列具体的对伊政策,可归纳出如下结论:小布什政府对伊朗政策的核心目标是伊朗停止铀浓缩活动,其根本目标是伊朗的政权更迭。在奥巴马政府执政初年,美伊关系的原有背景没有太大变化,但美对外政策受国内金融危机影响日增,因此奥巴马政府对伊朗政策的目标和限制因素同小布什政府的基本相同,但在实现目标的手段上作了调整,突出表现在对伊朗实施了无条件接触政策。但因接触政策效果不佳,以及受后来的撤军伊拉克、中东剧变、战略重心加速东移等影响,奥巴马政府在其实现目标的手段上逐渐回归小布什政府的强制性外交老路,而且有过之无不及。与此同时,奥巴马政府还加强了对伊朗的秘密战争。     

伊拉克战争后沙特和伊朗关系中的美国因素

2003年伊拉克战争后,在沙特和伊朗之间结构性矛盾的形成和发展方面,美国发挥了重要的负面影响。在小布什时期,伊拉克战争的爆发为伊朗提升地区影响力提供了有利条件。该时期,沙伊关系总体维持良好状态,但小布什政府的中东政策对沙伊关系的消极影响在其任内中后期日渐显现,激化了沙伊之间的矛盾,导致两国关系逐渐疏远。在奥巴马时期,美国在中东地区实施战略收缩以及缓和美伊关系的政策措施,再次为伊朗的崛起创造了条件,奥巴马政府的中东政策由此成为沙美关系恶化的重要外部因素。特朗普执政后,美国将修复与盟友关系、加大军售以及遏制伊朗作为中东政策的主要目标,并刻意利用和挑拨沙伊矛盾,进而导致沙伊关系进一步恶化。     

伊朗核问题：让美国很难办

2007年2月22日，国际原子能机构总干事巴拉迪在向该机械理事会和联合国安理会提交的报告中认定，伊朗没有履行联合国1737号决议，在它规定的期限之内停止铀浓缩活动。     

伊战后美国对伊拉克库尔德政策的动因及走向

长期以来,奉行亲美立场的伊拉克库尔德人在美国的中东战略中具有不可替代的作用。伊战后,以2003年伊拉克战争为标志事件,2011年美军撤离伊拉克为重要节点,美国的伊拉克库尔德政策可以分撤军前和撤军后两个阶段。随着伊拉克国内安全局势的恶化、伊朗支持什叶派力量的力度加大、极端组织“伊斯兰国”的沉浮和美国中东战略的收缩,美国不断调整对伊拉克库尔德政策。该政策是内外多重因素影响的结果,从本质上讲是美国将其作为维护中东霸权战略的重要抓手和依托。近年来,随着伊拉克国内反美情绪的高涨、伊朗地区影响力的增强、叙利亚局势的不确定性等多重因素的叠加,美国根据中东局势变化和战略利益需要持续调整库尔德政策,伊拉克库尔德人仍将是美国中东战略中的一个重要棋子。     

Gambling participation in the U.S.--results from a national survey

Demographic patterns of gambling participation in the U.S. were examined. A national telephone survey was conducted with 2,630 representative U.S. residents aged 18 or older. The sample as weighted for analysis was 48% male, 12% black, and 11% Hispanic. Respondents were questioned on 15 types of gambling: how often they played and how much they won or lost. Eighty-two percent gambled in the past year. Lottery was the most commonly played game, while casino gambling accounted for the largest extent of gambling involvement. Men and women were equally likely to gamble in the past year, but men gambled more frequently and had larger wins and losses, particularly on sports betting and games of skill. Blacks were less likely to have gambled in the past year, but blacks who gambled did so more heavily than other racial groups. Blacks and Hispanics were more likely than average to be pathological gamblers. The rate of past year gambling declined with age, but extent of gambling involvement among gamblers did not vary with age. Rates of participation in most forms of gambling increased with socioeconomic status, but higher socioeconomic status gamblers had lower rates of pathological gambling, and lower extent of gambling involvement, particularly for lottery. New Englanders gambled more heavily than other Americans. Comparison with past studies showed an increase in overall gambling participation in the U.S., and large increases in rates of participation in lottery and casino gambling.     

The Institutional and Technical Structuring of Nonprofit Ventures: Case Study of a U.S. Hybrid Organization Caught Between Two Fields

This paper engages the concept of the organizational field to explore the status of a growing set of organizations referred to as social enterprises, nonprofit ventures, and social purpose businesses. The argument is developed through an ethnographic case study of a nonprofit hybrid organization (in the United States) that is training welfare recipients in their own in-house businesses. First, this paper provides an overview of the commercial trends in the nonprofit sector and the rise of social purpose enterprises. Then, employing key concepts from neo-institutional theory, the author proposes framing nonprofit-business hybrids as organizations positioned in two different organizational fields—each necessitating different internal organizational technologies—to elucidate the structural tensions that can emerge inside these new hybrid models. Internal organizational tensions identified in the case study are highlighted. Finally, the proposed use of organizational field theory developed from the case analysis is discussed in terms of social enterprise more generally.

The Second Closet: A Qualitative Study of HIV Stigma Among Seropositive Gay Men in a Southern U.S. City

ABSTRACT

Objectives: Stigma connected with HIV/AIDS has decreased considerably since the early epidemic yet affects those living with HIV in many ways. Little research, particularly qualitative research, concerning HIV stigma from the perspective of gay men has emerged. The present qualitative study aimed to fill this evidence gap by examining how HIV stigma is perceived and experienced by gay men who have become HIV-infected and how they respond to this stigma. Methods: Thematic analysis of 19 gay men's narratives identified six main themes. Results: Encountering HIV stigmatization was common and was linked to the physical stigmata identifying respondents as HIV-positive. Overwhelmingly, they found stigmatization to be most intensely felt within gay communities. One profound theme was internalized HIV stigma, referring to respondents’ internalized negative feelings about their HIV status. A related theme was the closeted nature of HIV. Lastly, regarding how the men dealt with the HIV diagnosis and experiences of HIV stigma, a theme of adaptation became clear. Conclusions: Although exploratory, the results can serve as a beginning framework for understanding and assisting seropositive gay men who experience HIV stigma. The findings are important because it is realistic to expect that in a climate in which HIV has become increasingly invisible and closeted and in which infections are on the rise, gay and bisexual men will be increasingly affected and infected by HIV.     

台湾留美学生保钓群体研究

20世纪70年代台湾留美学生爆发了保钓运动,运用社会学"群体"的概念,可以将保钓学生视作一个群体,但群体内部不同组成部分参加保钓的心态以及特征各有不同。从整体看,70年代台湾留美学生保钓群体大都是具有高学历的知识分子,继承了中国传统的士人精神;而理想主义是钓统运动持续时间长久的内在原因。     

Three Korean perspectives on U.S. internet public diplomacy

This study identifies perspectives of relationships publics have about countries other than their own and examines whether publics engaged through social media-based public diplomacy programs demonstrate different relationship perspectives. Q methodology and survey research were used to investigate these issues. Data come from South Korean adult internet users, including members of Café USA, an online community run by the U.S. Embassy in Seoul. Three relationship perspectives were identified: outcome-based, sincerity-based, and access-based. Compared with other groups, Café USA members put more emphasis on sincerity in their relationships with the United States. The results of this study indicate that individuals’ subjectivity should be considered as far more contextualized and nuanced than has been the case in previous research on national image or country reputation.