Oil prices,stock market returns and volatility spillovers: Evidence from Turkey

This paper examines the relationship between crude oil prices and stock market returns in Turkey taking into account volatility spillovers that are exemplified by second moment effects. Using weekly data from 1990 to 2017 and time varying causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance tests and taking into account structural breaks, we model each series as an EGARCH process in order to capture any leverage effects in the volatility of returns. Empirical results suggest crude oil prices as measured by Brent benchmark have significant effects on stock market returns in Turkey. While we fail to document significant spillover effects stemming from oil prices in the entire sample, there are significant spillover effects from crude oil price changes to stock market returns in 1993 and 2008–09. These results suggest that government policies must take into account risk spillover effects between markets and that investors are better off monitoring crude oil markets in portfolio allocation decisions.     

Soccer, stock returns and fanaticism: Evidence from Turkey

This paper assesses the effect of three major soccer teams’ wins on the returns of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). We argue that the effect of soccer wins on ISE returns increases with the fanaticism of the teams’ supporters.     

Gender-specific differences in labor market adjustment patterns: Evidence from the United States

Do men and women behave differently while adjusting labor supply over the business cycle? Using data from the United States, we show that women are significantly more likely to adjust along the intensive margin (number of hours), while men adjust more along the extensive margin (employment). Older, single, and divorced/widowed adjust predominantly along the extensive margin.     

试论我国证券市场国际化与监管

加入WTO ,实现证券市场国际化 ,对我国证券业的生存与发展将产生重大的影响 ,对证券市场监管也提出了更高的要求。作为证券市场的监督机构 ,要对市场进行分析和预测 ,超前进行探索 ,主动调整监管思路和监管模式 ,制定和完善监管措施 ,在确保证券市场国际化的同时 ,实现证券市场的安全有序运行     

Black‐market Medicine and Public Opinion Towards the Welfare State: Evidence from Israel

Based on a survey and interviews, this article presents and analyses Israeli public opinion toward black‐market medicine (BMM) and the welfare state. In addition to providing quantitative and qualitative evidence of the existence of under‐the‐table payments in Israel, we suggest various insights into this phenomenon. While most citizens admit that they would consider making under‐the‐table payments in order to receive preferential medical treatment, when the questions mention words such as ‘illegal’ or ‘bribe’, respondents tend to be less tolerant of such activities. We find that, first, there is a basic willingness among Israeli citizens to use BMM. Second, despite this predilection, Israeli citizens are reluctant to articulate their willingness to engage in such illegal activities. This reluctance implies the existence of a moral barrier among the population as far as identifying themselves with illegal behaviour is concerned. We may infer the existence of a gap between declared attitudes and behaviour. Third, the fact that people's willingness to engage in BMM is greater than their willingness to adopt black‐market strategies in other areas signifies the special nature of health care. Finally, by connecting the phenomenon of BMM to public opinion regarding the welfare state, we point to a possible gap between normative attitudes and preferences produced by structural conditions.     

证券市场过度反映周期性特点研究--国际市场实证比较

有效市场理论认为,证券价格总是可以充分反映所有信息的变化,证券价格等于其“内在价值”。然而,过度反映作为行为金融学的重要命题和“反转交易策略”的理论基础,对这一假说提出了严峻的挑战。证券市场过度反映对称周期由长到短依次为:中国市场、日本市场、英国市场和美国市场,不同市场对极端坏信息反映的“尖端效率”存在差异。     

The likelihood of various stock market return distributions, part 2: Empirical results

The present article shows how Bayesians should shift beliefs among a family of models concerning the probability distribution of daily changes in the Standard & Poor 500 Index, given a particular sample. The preceding article in this issue showed that classical (R.A. Fisher, Neyman-Pearson) inference can be highly misleading for Bayesians, as can the assumption of a diffuse prior. The present article discusses how to bound Bayesian shifts in belief for compound hypotheses generally, as well as the specific shifts in beliefs among simple and compound hypotheses implied by the particular sample.     

The likelihood of various stock market return distributions, part 1: Principles of inference

This is the first of two articles which apply certain principles of inference to a practical, financial question. The present article argues and cites arguments which contend that decision making should be Bayesian, that classical (R. A. Fisher, Neyman-Pearson) inference can be highly misleading for Bayesians as can the use of diffuse priors, and that Bayesian statisticians should show remote clients with a variety of priors how a sample implies shifts in their beliefs. We also consider practical implications of the fact that human decision makers and their statisticians cannot fully emulate Savage's rational decision maker.     

Pension reform, the stock market, capital formation and economic growth: A critical commentary on the World Bank's proposals

Proposing far-reaching reforms to pension systems, the World Bank has recently suggested that the existing pay-as-you-go systems in many rich as well as poor countries should be replaced by fully funded, mandatory, preferably private pensions, as the main pillars of the new system. It argues that these reforms will not only benefit pensioners but also enhance savings, and promote capital formation and economic development. This paper provides a critical examination of the Bank's theses and concludes that it has adopted a one-sided view of the relationships between the key critical variables. The proposed reform may therefore neither protect the old nor achieve faster economic growth.     

Social Capital and Fire Service Performance: Evidence from the U.S. States*

Objective. The present study evaluates whether areas with high levels of social capital are likely to have better fire service performance. Method. Utilizing Robert Putnam's 14‐measure index of social capital, OLS regression techniques are applied to objective data on the rate of unintentional fire deaths in the U.S. states between 1980 and 2003. Results. The findings show that social capital is associated with a low unintentional fire death rate, even when controlling for a range of important environmental constraints. However, the effects of social capital vary by its conceptual components. Conclusions. The study supports the argument that social capital is likely to be an important determinant of fire service outcomes, and suggests that the political engagement and social trust components may be the most important focus for public policies seeking to build social capital in order to reduce fire fatalities.     

Effect of monetary policy credibility on the fear of floating: Evidence from Brazil

Based on the argument that monetary policy credibility can reduce the fear of floating (FF), we analyze this hypothesis for Brazil. Since expectations play a key role under Inflation Targeting, we also analyze whether credibility can affect the expectations of financial markets about the FF of the Central Bank. The results show credibility can reduce the FF, and financial markets expect less intervention by the Central Bank when credibility is higher. Thus, policymakers must pay attention to the credibility of their policies, otherwise they may be misinterpreted regarding both the goals they pursue and how they conduct monetary policy.     

方言能力与流动儿童的学业表现——来自中国教育追踪调查的证据

本文以就读于八年级的流动儿童作为研究对象，考察了方言能力对其学业表现的影响及作用机制。通过对中国教育追踪调查2014—2015学年数据的分析，本研究发现，掌握流入地方言可以显著改善流动儿童的学业表现，但其影响主要体现在语文和英语两个科目上。同时，来自教师和同学的支持是方言能力影响流动儿童学业表现的作用机制。本研究从语言环境的角度揭示了流动儿童人力资本积累的逻辑，为相关部门完善与流动儿童相关的教育政策提供了经验证据。     

A test of the gambler's fallacy: Evidence from pari-mutuel games

The “gambler's fallacy” is the belief that the probability of an event is decreased when the event has occurred recently, even though the probability is objectively known to be independent across trials. Clotfelter and Cook (1991, 1993) find evidence of the gambler's fallacy in analysis of data from the Maryland lottery's“Pick 3” numbers game. In the Maryland lottery, the payout to all numbers is equal at $250 on a winning fifty-cent bet, so the gambler's fallacy betting strategy costs bettors nothing. This article looks at the importance of the gambler's fallacy in the New Jersey lottery's three-digit numbers game, a pari-mutuel game where a lower amount of total wagering on a number increases the payout to that number. Results indicate that the gambler's fallacy exists among bettors in New Jersey, although to a lesser extent than among those in Maryland.     

Social Protection in Turkey: Fragmented — and Disconnected from the Supply of Hospital Care

While Turkey's social protection structure and its hospital system both comprise a number of arrangements and strata predicated on the occupational situation of beneficiaries, there is no equivalence between them, in terms of either scope of benefits provided, benefit conditions or terms of reimbursement. Different social protection schemes and types of hospital are effectively sealed off from each other: the resulting fragmentation of access to care is at the origin of shortcomings in the social security coverage of the population. It explains the emergence of stopgap arrangements devised by various social actors, including the State, charitable foundations, community associations, municipal authorities and private enterprise.     

On the validity of the estimates of the VSL from contingent valuation: Evidence from the Czech Republic

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - We assess the reliability and validity of estimates of the Value per Statistical Life (VSL) from contingent valuation by administering the same contingent...     

Modesty can promote trust: Evidence from China

When people let others know about their accomplishments, they can improve their social standing, but doing so may also have a cost, especially within social environments in which there is great emphasis on the value of modesty. One particular downside of self‐promotion, the risk of being seen as untrustworthy, was examined among children in China. Across three studies, children ranging in age from 7 to 11 years (total N = 251) judged the trustworthiness of protagonists who exhibited either modesty or immodesty. In Study 1, protagonists who told lies in the service of modesty were judged as more trustworthy than those who told lies to avoid getting into trouble. In Study 2, protagonists who demonstrated modesty were rated as trustworthy, but those who demonstrated immodesty were not. Study 3 showed that the positive implications of modesty for trust are specific to downplaying one’s own accomplishments and do not extend to downplaying the accomplishments of a peer. Taken together, the results suggest that for children in China, the level of modesty serves as a cue about which people can be trusted.     

E-cigarettes and adult smoking: Evidence from Minnesota

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - E-cigarettes provide nicotine in a vapor form, which is considered less harmful than the smoke from combustible cigarettes because it does not contain the toxins...