Soccer, stock returns and fanaticism: Evidence from Turkey

This paper assesses the effect of three major soccer teams’ wins on the returns of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). We argue that the effect of soccer wins on ISE returns increases with the fanaticism of the teams’ supporters.     

Gender-specific differences in labor market adjustment patterns: Evidence from the United States

Do men and women behave differently while adjusting labor supply over the business cycle? Using data from the United States, we show that women are significantly more likely to adjust along the intensive margin (number of hours), while men adjust more along the extensive margin (employment). Older, single, and divorced/widowed adjust predominantly along the extensive margin.     

试论我国证券市场国际化与监管

加入WTO ,实现证券市场国际化 ,对我国证券业的生存与发展将产生重大的影响 ,对证券市场监管也提出了更高的要求。作为证券市场的监督机构 ,要对市场进行分析和预测 ,超前进行探索 ,主动调整监管思路和监管模式 ,制定和完善监管措施 ,在确保证券市场国际化的同时 ,实现证券市场的安全有序运行     

证券市场过度反映周期性特点研究--国际市场实证比较

有效市场理论认为,证券价格总是可以充分反映所有信息的变化,证券价格等于其“内在价值”。然而,过度反映作为行为金融学的重要命题和“反转交易策略”的理论基础,对这一假说提出了严峻的挑战。证券市场过度反映对称周期由长到短依次为:中国市场、日本市场、英国市场和美国市场,不同市场对极端坏信息反映的“尖端效率”存在差异。     

The likelihood of various stock market return distributions, part 2: Empirical results

The present article shows how Bayesians should shift beliefs among a family of models concerning the probability distribution of daily changes in the Standard & Poor 500 Index, given a particular sample. The preceding article in this issue showed that classical (R.A. Fisher, Neyman-Pearson) inference can be highly misleading for Bayesians, as can the assumption of a diffuse prior. The present article discusses how to bound Bayesian shifts in belief for compound hypotheses generally, as well as the specific shifts in beliefs among simple and compound hypotheses implied by the particular sample.     

The likelihood of various stock market return distributions, part 1: Principles of inference

This is the first of two articles which apply certain principles of inference to a practical, financial question. The present article argues and cites arguments which contend that decision making should be Bayesian, that classical (R. A. Fisher, Neyman-Pearson) inference can be highly misleading for Bayesians as can the use of diffuse priors, and that Bayesian statisticians should show remote clients with a variety of priors how a sample implies shifts in their beliefs. We also consider practical implications of the fact that human decision makers and their statisticians cannot fully emulate Savage's rational decision maker.     

Pension reform, the stock market, capital formation and economic growth: A critical commentary on the World Bank's proposals

Proposing far-reaching reforms to pension systems, the World Bank has recently suggested that the existing pay-as-you-go systems in many rich as well as poor countries should be replaced by fully funded, mandatory, preferably private pensions, as the main pillars of the new system. It argues that these reforms will not only benefit pensioners but also enhance savings, and promote capital formation and economic development. This paper provides a critical examination of the Bank's theses and concludes that it has adopted a one-sided view of the relationships between the key critical variables. The proposed reform may therefore neither protect the old nor achieve faster economic growth.     

Social Capital and Fire Service Performance: Evidence from the U.S. States*

Objective. The present study evaluates whether areas with high levels of social capital are likely to have better fire service performance. Method. Utilizing Robert Putnam's 14‐measure index of social capital, OLS regression techniques are applied to objective data on the rate of unintentional fire deaths in the U.S. states between 1980 and 2003. Results. The findings show that social capital is associated with a low unintentional fire death rate, even when controlling for a range of important environmental constraints. However, the effects of social capital vary by its conceptual components. Conclusions. The study supports the argument that social capital is likely to be an important determinant of fire service outcomes, and suggests that the political engagement and social trust components may be the most important focus for public policies seeking to build social capital in order to reduce fire fatalities.     

A test of the gambler's fallacy: Evidence from pari-mutuel games

The “gambler's fallacy” is the belief that the probability of an event is decreased when the event has occurred recently, even though the probability is objectively known to be independent across trials. Clotfelter and Cook (1991, 1993) find evidence of the gambler's fallacy in analysis of data from the Maryland lottery's“Pick 3” numbers game. In the Maryland lottery, the payout to all numbers is equal at $250 on a winning fifty-cent bet, so the gambler's fallacy betting strategy costs bettors nothing. This article looks at the importance of the gambler's fallacy in the New Jersey lottery's three-digit numbers game, a pari-mutuel game where a lower amount of total wagering on a number increases the payout to that number. Results indicate that the gambler's fallacy exists among bettors in New Jersey, although to a lesser extent than among those in Maryland.     

Social Protection in Turkey: Fragmented — and Disconnected from the Supply of Hospital Care

While Turkey's social protection structure and its hospital system both comprise a number of arrangements and strata predicated on the occupational situation of beneficiaries, there is no equivalence between them, in terms of either scope of benefits provided, benefit conditions or terms of reimbursement. Different social protection schemes and types of hospital are effectively sealed off from each other: the resulting fragmentation of access to care is at the origin of shortcomings in the social security coverage of the population. It explains the emergence of stopgap arrangements devised by various social actors, including the State, charitable foundations, community associations, municipal authorities and private enterprise.     

On the validity of the estimates of the VSL from contingent valuation: Evidence from the Czech Republic

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - We assess the reliability and validity of estimates of the Value per Statistical Life (VSL) from contingent valuation by administering the same contingent...     

E-cigarettes and adult smoking: Evidence from Minnesota

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - E-cigarettes provide nicotine in a vapor form, which is considered less harmful than the smoke from combustible cigarettes because it does not contain the toxins...     

Taxation and economic performance: Evidence from China

This paper empirically tests the effects of taxation on economic performance using prefectural level city and county data from China. Results based on cross-sectional data from over 200 prefectural cities in 2007 indicate that overall tax burden and tax structure affect economic performance. Specifically, tax burden has a negative correlation with economic activities. Empirical results from the analysis of disaggregated local data for over 2,000 counties in China also support the hypothesis that distortionary taxation lowers the economic activities. These findings provide empirical evidence from China on a negative relationship of the total tax burden with economic activities.     

International Trade and the Urbanization of Developing Countries: Evidence from Asia

Abstract

A grain surplus and the grain trade are closely related to the urbanization of developing countries. However, existing literature has not given adequate attention to this issue. Our paper develops a theoretical model to explain the mechanisms whereby changes in the grain surplus constrain the level of urbanization in a closed economy context and the grain trade affects the level of urbanization by acting on the grain surplus in an open economy context. A test of the theoretical model applied to some developing countries in Asia during the period 1993-2010 shows that international trade is generally negatively correlated with level of urbanization. However, cereal and non-cereal trade vary in terms of their relation to urbanization: whereas the former is positively correlated with level of urbanization, the latter is negatively correlated with it. Since the net import of cereals relaxes the constraint imposed on the level of urbanization by the domestic grain surplus, it can have a marked positive effect on the course of urbanization. Our research findings show that provided grain production or grain security is guaranteed, developing countries may adopt a policy of importing an appropriate amount of grain to increase their level of urbanization.     

Are corrupt acts contagious?: Evidence from the United States

This paper adds to the literature by shedding new light on the causes of corruption. Specifically, we provide evidence on the extent to which corruption might be contagious. In other words, what is the extent to which a demonstration effect is at play at inducing corrupt acts? Using state-level U.S. data over the 1995–2004 period, the results show that the effect of neighboring corruption is positive and statistically significant in all cases, implying that corruption does appear to be contagious. Specifically, a 10% increase in corruption in neighboring states appears to increase corruption in a state by about 4–11%. Of the different types of government activity, the size of defense and non-defense federal sectors in a state seem to have opposite effects on corruption, with the former contributing to corruption and the latter serving as a deterrent. The size of the state and local governments does not seem to be relevant. Of the variables controlling for detection and punishment of corrupt individuals, greater corrections employment reduces corruption, while greater judicial employment seems to increase corruption. Changes in the police force do not seem to have a statistically significant impact. These findings generally hold when we control for the disproportionate effects of the Washington, DC area and when a pooled data set is estimated. Contagion effects are also found for other crimes. Policy implications are discussed.     

The efficiency of government spending on health: Evidence from Europe and Central Asia

This paper uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to evaluate health expenditures to demonstrate how productivity has changed over time for 46 selected countries in Europe and Central Asia. Our results show that countries could have increased output by 1.2% given the existing level of inputs. The patterns of efficiency change for the observed countries are further analyzed using the Malmquist productivity index (MPI). Decreased productivity growth is related to technical change. Finally, we regress efficiency scores on a set of environmental variables using a Tobit model. The positive influence of hospital beds and primary schooling on efficiency scores demonstrates that countries with better medical environments and a greater number of educational years may enjoy increased efficiency. In addition, there exists a regional effect between Europe and Central Asia.     

Labour market integration of unemployed youth from a life course perspective: the case of Norway

The aim of this article is to analyse the labour market integration of previously unemployed youth in a life course perspective. 'Work, Lifestyle and Health' is a longitudinal panel survey following a sample of nearly 2,000 individuals who are representative of the Norwegian cohorts born between 1965 and 1968. The survey was first conducted in 1985 with follow-ups in 1987, 1989, 1993 and again in 2003. Unemployment among young people does not necessarily lead to marginalisation and social exclusion. Long-term effects will be dependent upon how the youths cope with unemployment, the duration of the unemployment period, their mental health status and educational qualifications. Many young unemployed people are not entitled to unemployment benefits because they lack work experience. Consequently, they are dependent on support from their family and/or social assistance. However, there is still much to learn about the long-term consequences of youth unemployment, e.g. whether or not the youths have received social assistance and what are the long-term consequences for their future labour market career and labour market integration.