Inference with a contrast-based posterior distribution and application in spatial statistics

The likelihood function is often used for parameter estimation. Its use, however, may cause difficulties in specific situations. In order to circumvent these difficulties, we propose a parameter estimation method based on the replacement of the likelihood in the formula of the Bayesian posterior distribution by a function which depends on a contrast measuring the discrepancy between observed data and a parametric model. The properties of the contrast-based (CB) posterior distribution are studied to understand what the consequences of incorporating a contrast in the Bayes formula are. We show that the CB-posterior distribution can be used to make frequentist inference and to assess the asymptotic variance matrix of the estimator with limited analytical calculations compared to the classical contrast approach. Even if the primary focus of this paper is on frequentist estimation, it is shown that for specific contrasts the CB-posterior distribution can be used to make inference in the Bayesian way.The method was used to estimate the parameters of a variogram (simulated data), a Markovian model (simulated data) and a cylinder-based autosimilar model describing soil roughness (real data). Even if the method is presented in the spatial statistics perspective, it can be applied to non-spatial data.     

Improved distribution quantile estimation

A technique for estimating the quantiles or percentiles of a distribution is developed. The parametric form of the distribution is assumed unknown. The estimation procedure is based on a kernel estimator of a probability density function and on aquantile estimator suggested by Harrell and Davis (1982). Simulation studies show that estimation of quantiles in moderately heavyto heavy tails of a distribution is substantially improved by use of the technique.     

Generalized fiducial inference for generalized exponential distribution

This article mainly considers interval estimation of the scale and shape parameters of the generalized exponential (GE) distribution. We adopt the generalized fiducial method to construct a kind of new confidence intervals for the parameters of interest and compare them with the frequentist and Bayesian methods. In addition, we give the comparison of the point estimation based on the frequentist, generalized fiducial and Bayesian methods. Simulation results show that a new procedure based on generalized fiducial inference is more applicable than the non-fiducial methods for the point and interval estimation of the GE distribution. Finally, two lifetime data sets are used to illustrate the application of our new procedure.     

A natural conjugate prior for the nonhomogeneous poisson process with an exponential intensity function

This article presents a natural conjugate prior for the nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with an exponential intensity function, for modeling the failure rate of repairable systems. The behavior of the conjugate prior distribution with respect to its parameters is studied, and the use of this prior in Bayesian estimation is compared to two other estimation approaches (the use of independent prior distributions, and the bivariate normal distribution). The use of the conjugate prior proposed here facilitates Bayesian statistical analysis of aging. In particular, the proposed prior allows us to explicitly account for dependence between the initial failure rate and the aging rate. This is a significant improvement over the assumptions made in most prior work (either the assumption that the aging rate is known, or the assumption that the initial failure rate and the aging rate are independent). Monte Carlo simulation shows that Bayesian estimation using the proposed prior generally performs at least as well as Bayesian estimation using independent priors for the initial failure rate and the aging rate,except in the case where the prior distribution underestimates both the initial failure rate and the aging rate.     

Importance resampling for the smoothed bootstrap

Alternative methods of estimating properties of unknown distributions include the bootstrap and the smoothed bootstrap. In the standard bootstrap setting, Johns (1988) introduced an importance resam¬pling procedure that results in more accurate approximation to the bootstrap estimate of a distribution function or a quantile. With a suitable “exponential tilting” similar to that used by Johns, we derived a smoothed version of importance resampling in the framework of the smoothed bootstrap. Smoothed importance resampling procedures were developed for the estimation of distribution functions of the Studentized mean, the Studentized variance, and the correlation coefficient. Implementation of these procedures are presented via simulation results which concentrate on the problem of estimation of distribution functions of the Studentized mean and Studentized variance for different sample sizes and various pre-specified smoothing bandwidths for the normal data; additional simulations were conducted for the estimation of quantiles of the distribution of the Studentized mean under an optimal smoothing bandwidth when the original data were simulated from three different parent populations: lognormal, t(3) and t(10). These results suggest that in cases where it is advantageous to use the smoothed bootstrap rather than the standard bootstrap, the amount of resampling necessary might be substantially reduced by the use of importance resampling methods and the efficiency gains depend on the bandwidth used in the kernel density estimation.     

Bayesian non-parametric models for regional prevalence estimation

We developed a flexible non-parametric Bayesian model for regional disease-prevalence estimation based on cross-sectional data that are obtained from several subpopulations or clusters such as villages, cities, or herds. The subpopulation prevalences are modeled with a mixture distribution that allows for zero prevalence. The distribution of prevalences among diseased subpopulations is modeled as a mixture of finite Polya trees. Inferences can be obtained for (1) the proportion of diseased subpopulations in a region, (2) the distribution of regional prevalences, (3) the mean and median prevalence in the region, (4) the prevalence of any sampled subpopulation, and (5) predictive distributions of prevalences for regional subpopulations not included in the study, including the predictive probability of zero prevalence. We focus on prevalence estimation using data from a single diagnostic test, but we also briefly discuss the scenario where two conditionally dependent (or independent) diagnostic tests are used. Simulated data demonstrate the utility of our non-parametric model over parametric analysis. An example involving brucellosis in cattle is presented.     

Estimation under Cox proportional hazards model with covariates missing not at random

This paper considers likelihood-based estimation under the Cox proportional hazards model in the situations where some covariate entries are missing not at random. Assuming the conditional distribution of the missing entries is known, we demonstrate the existence of the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the model parameters, establish the consistency and weak convergence. By simulation, we examine the finite-sample performance of the estimation procedure, and compare the SPMLE with the one resulted from using an estimated conditional distribution of the missing entries. We analyze the data from a tuberculosis (TB) study applying the proposed approach for illustration.     

The E-Bayesian and hierarchical Bayesian estimations of Pareto distribution parameter under different loss functions

In this paper, we study the E-Bayesian and hierarchical Bayesian estimations of the parameter derived from Pareto distribution under different loss functions. The definition of the E-Bayesian estimation of the parameter is provided. Moreover, for Pareto distribution, under the condition of the scale parameter is known, based on the different loss functions, formulas of the E-Bayesian estimation and hierarchical Bayesian estimations for the shape parameter are given, respectively, properties of the E-Bayesian estimation – (i) the relationship between of E-Bayesian estimations under different loss functions are provided, (ii) the relationship between of E-Bayesian and hierarchical Bayesian estimations under the same loss function are also provided, and using the Monte Carlo method simulation example is given. Finally, combined with the golfers income data practical problem are calculated, the results show that the proposed method is feasible and convenient for application.     

Estimation of reliability of multicomponent stress–strength for a Kumaraswamy distribution

This article deals with the Bayesian and non Bayesian estimation of multicomponent stress–strength reliability by assuming the Kumaraswamy distribution. Both stress and strength are assumed to have a Kumaraswamy distribution with common and known shape parameter. The reliability of such a system is obtained by the methods of maximum likelihood and Bayesian approach and the results are compared using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for both small and large samples. Finally, two data sets are analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

ROBUST ESTIMATION OF SMALL‐AREA MEANS AND QUANTILES

Small‐area estimation techniques have typically relied on plug‐in estimation based on models containing random area effects. More recently, regression M‐quantiles have been suggested for this purpose, thus avoiding conventional Gaussian assumptions, as well as problems associated with the specification of random effects. However, the plug‐in M‐quantile estimator for the small‐area mean can be shown to be the expected value of this mean with respect to a generally biased estimator of the small‐area cumulative distribution function of the characteristic of interest. To correct this problem, we propose a general framework for robust small‐area estimation, based on representing a small‐area estimator as a functional of a predictor of this small‐area cumulative distribution function. Key advantages of this framework are that it naturally leads to integrated estimation of small‐area means and quantiles and is not restricted to M‐quantile models. We also discuss mean squared error estimation for the resulting estimators, and demonstrate the advantages of our approach through model‐based and design‐based simulations, with the latter using economic data collected in an Australian farm survey.     

Estimation of tail parameters under type i censoring

This paper is a continuation of previous work concerning the estimation of tail-parameters under Type II censoring (Weissman 1978). The same estimation problem is considered here, this truip under Type I censoring. A sample of size n is censored below aE a given level x₀it is assumed that che underlying distriibution .function (df)belogs to the domain of attraction of a known extreme-value distribution and that K - K(x_o) , the number of observed values, remains finite as on - ∞ . We offer here estimators, which are asymptotically maximum likelihood estimators (MLE's), for quantiles associated with the tail of F such as location and scale parameters, quantiles and F(x) itself (for x in the tail). The results are applied to two illustrative examples.     

A reduced new modified Weibull distribution

The author proposes a reduced version, with three parameters, of the new modified Weibull (NMW) distribution in order to avoid some estimation problems. The mathematical properties and maximum-likelihood estimation of the reduced version are studied. Four real data sets (complete and censored) are used to compare the flexibility of the reduced version versus the NMW distribution. It is shown that the reduced version has the same desirable properties of the NMW distribution in spite of having two less parameters. The NMW distribution did not provide a significantly better fit than the reduced version.     

Pseudo maximum likelihood estimation for the dirichlet-multinomial distribution

Pseudo maximum likelihood estimation (PML) for the Dirich-let-multinomial distribution is proposed and examined in this pa-per. The procedure is compared to that based on moments (MM) for its asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) relative to the maximum likelihood estimate (ML). It is found that PML, requiring much less computational effort than ML and possessing considerably higher ARE than MM, constitutes a good compromise between ML and MM. PML is also found to have very high ARE when an estimate for the scale parameter in the Dirichlet-multinomial distribution is all that is needed.     

On probit versus logit dynamic mixed models for binary panel data

In this paper, we consider inferences in a binary dynamic mixed model. The existing estimation approaches mainly estimate the regression effects and the dynamic dependence parameters either through the estimation of the random effects or by avoiding the random effects technically. Under the assumption that the random effects follow a Gaussian distribution, we propose a generalized quasilikelihood (GQL) approach for the estimation of the parameters of the dynamic mixed models. The proposed approach is computationally less cumbersome than the exact maximum likelihood (ML) approach. We also carry out the GQL estimation under two competitive, namely, probit and logit mixed models, and discuss both the asymptotic and small-sample behaviour of their estimators.     

New perspective on the benefits of the gene–environment independence in case–control studies

We study the benefit of exploiting the gene–environment independence (GEI) assumption for inferring the joint effect of genotype and environmental exposure on disease risk in a case–control study. By transforming the problem into a constrained maximum likelihood estimation problem we derive the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) under the GEI assumption (MLE‐GEI) in a closed form. Our approach uncovers a transparent explanation of the efficiency gained by exploiting the GEI assumption in more general settings, thus bridging an important gap in the existing literature. Moreover, we propose an easy‐to‐implement numerical algorithm for estimating the model parameters in practice. Finally, we conduct simulation studies to compare the proposed method with the traditional prospective logistic regression method and the case‐only estimator. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 473–486; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

A simple method for estimating parameters of the location–scale distribution family

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the parameters of the location–scale distribution family. As a special case, the method is used for estimating the parameters of the normal distribution and Cauchy distribution. For the Cauchy distribution, neither the moment estimation method nor the maximum likelihood estimation method works properly for estimating the parameters. The quantiles for obtaining confidence intervals and point estimates for the parameters of the two-parameter Cauchy distribution are given in the paper. It is shown that the estimators obtained in this paper are unbiased with respect to the median and possess some optimal properties.     

A matching prior for extreme quantile estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution

Extreme quantile estimation plays an important role in risk management and environmental statistics among other applications. A popular method is the peaks-over-threshold (POT) model that approximate the distribution of excesses over a high threshold through generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Motivated by a practical financial risk management problem, we look for an appropriate prior choice for Bayesian estimation of the GPD parameters that results in better quantile estimation. Specifically, we propose a noninformative matching prior for the parameters of a GPD so that a specific quantile of the Bayesian predictive distribution matches the true quantile in the sense of Datta et al. (2000).     

A new lifetime distribution for a series-parallel system: properties,applications and estimations under progressive type-II censoring

A compound class of zero truncated Poisson and lifetime distributions is introduced. A specialization is paved to a new three-parameter distribution, called doubly Poisson-exponential distribution, which may represent the lifetime of units connected in a series-parallel system. The new distribution can be obtained by compounding two zero truncated Poisson distributions with an exponential distribution. Among its motivations is that its hazard rate function can take different shapes such as decreasing, increasing and upside-down bathtub depending on the values of its parameters. Several properties of the new distribution are discussed. Based on progressive type-II censoring, six estimation methods [maximum likelihood, moments, least squares, weighted least squares and Bayes (under linear-exponential and general entropy loss functions) estimations] are used to estimate the involved parameters. The performance of these methods is investigated through a simulation study. The Bayes estimates are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. In addition, confidence intervals, symmetric credible intervals and highest posterior density credible intervals of the parameters are obtained. Finally, an application to a real data set is used to compare the new distribution with other five distributions.     

A comparison of some robust,adaptive, and partially adaptive estimators of regression models

Numerous estimation techniques for regression models have been proposed. These procedures differ in how sample information is used in the estimation procedure. The efficiency of least squares (OLS) estimators implicity assumes normally distributed residuals and is very sensitive to departures from normality, particularly to "outliers" and thick-tailed distributions. Lead absolute deviation (LAD) estimators are less sensitive to outliers and are optimal for laplace random disturbances, but not for normal errors. This paper reports monte carlo comparisons of OLS,LAD, two robust estimators discussed by huber, three partially adaptiveestimators, newey's generalized method of moments estimator, and an adaptive maximum likelihood estimator based on a normal kernal studied by manski. This paper is the first to compare the relative performance of some adaptive robust estimators (partially adaptive and adaptive procedures) with some common nonadaptive robust estimators. The partially adaptive estimators are based on three flxible parametric distributions for the errors. These include the power exponential (Box-Tiao) and generalized t distributions, as well as a distribution for the errors, which is not necessarily symmetric. The adaptive procedures are "fully iterative" rather than one step estimators. The adaptive estimators have desirable large sample properties, but these properties do not necessarily carry over to the small sample case.

The monte carlo comparisons of the alternative estimators are based on four different specifications for the error distribution: a normal, a mixture of normals (or variance-contaminated normal), a bimodal mixture of normals, and a lognormal. Five hundred samples of 50 are used. The adaptive and partially adaptive estimators perform very well relative to the other estimation procedures considered, and preliminary results suggest that in some important cases they can perform much better than OLS with 50 to 80% reductions in standard errors.