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1.
In this paper, we study a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, endogenous fertility and public pensions. By assuming Cobb–Douglas technology and logarithmic preferences, we show that the introduction of a fertility-related component in the pay-as-you-go pension scheme may destabilise the long-term equilibrium and cause endogenous fluctuations when individuals have static expectations. The possibility of cyclical instability increases (resp. reduces) when both the subjective discount factor and relative weight of individual fertility in pay-as-you-go pensions (resp. the parents’ taste for children) increase(s). Interestingly, when public pensions are contingent on the individual number of children, the financing of small-sized benefits may cause the occurrence of a flip bifurcation, two-period cycles and cycles of a higher order. In addition, we show through numerical simulations that these results hold in a more general setting with a constant inter-temporal elasticity of substitution utility function and a constant elasticity of substitution production function. Our findings identify a possible novel factor responsible for persistent deterministic fluctuations in a context of overlapping generations, while also representing a policy warning regarding the destabilising effects of fertility-related pension reforms, which are currently high in both the theoretical debate and the political agendas of several developed countries. 相似文献
2.
We study the design of pension schemes when fertility is endogenous and parents differ in ability to raise children. Pay-as-you-go schemes require, under perfect information, a marginal subsidy on fertility to correct for the externality they create, equal pensions, and contributions that increase or decrease with the number of children. Under asymmetric information, incentive-related distortions supplement the Pigouvian subsidy. These require an additional subsidy or an offsetting tax depending on whether the redistribution is towards people with more or with less children. In the former case, pensions are decreasing in the number of children; otherwise, they are increasing. 相似文献
3.
Olivia Ekert-Jaffé 《Social indicators research》2011,101(2):243-247
This article attempts to estimate the time cost of children in France for couples who do not forgo any income, on the basis
of the INSEE 1998–1999 time use survey. Having a child involves an increase in domestic work and/or the dedication of occupational
income to pay for childcare. The reduction in “time for oneself”—leisure and personal care, i.e. 24 h less working hours paid
or unpaid—is modelled for a dual-earner couple in full-time employment who do not use childcare services to increase his/her
leisure time. Taking a couple in full-time employment avoids income endogeneity bias, since income is reduced by career interruption
and part-time employment. These estimates account for this selection by full-time paid work. The article shows that time cost
is roughly 1 h 30 min a day for a child aged 3–14, and is 4 h a day for each younger child. As this cost rises, the more fathers
sacrifice some of their free time. The father and mother of two young children with a childminder thus each have only 11 hours
of free time (including sleep) per day. The time cost of a large family (3 children) is equivalent to a full-time job on the
labour market. In France, work-life balance policies and family pension entitlements only cover a small part of this cost. 相似文献
4.
5.
Richard C. Barnett Joydeep Bhattacharya Mikko Puhakka 《Journal of population economics》2018,31(3):703-746
We directly compare two institutions, a family compact—a parent makes a transfer to her parent in anticipation of a possible future gift from her children—with a pay-as-you-go, public pension system, in a life cycle model with endogenous fertility wherein children are valued both as consumption and investment goods. Absent intragenerational heterogeneity, we show that a benevolent government has no welfare justification for introducing public pensions alongside thriving family compacts since the former is associated with inefficiently low fertility. This result hinges critically on a fiscal externality—the inability of middle age agents to internalize the impact of their fertility decisions on old-age transfers under a public pension system. With homogeneous agents, a strong-enough negative aggregate shock to middle-age incomes destroys all family compacts, and in such a setting, an optimal public pension system cannot enter. This suggests the raison d’être for social security must lie outside of its function as a pension system—specifically its redistributive function which emerges with heterogeneous agents. In a simple modification of our benchmark model—one that allows for idiosyncratic frictions to compact formation such as differences in infertility/mating status—a welfare-enhancing role for a public pension system emerges; such systems may flourish even when family compacts cannot. 相似文献
6.
Old age pensions and public education account for a large share of public budgets. We link both programs through a tax-transfer
system that is also sensitive to labor market distortions. We analyze the impact that alternative pension reforms have, through
the political process, on publicly financed education. We explain how changes in the pension system design affect the link
between the two programs and also labor market incentives. These effects, if they exist, act in opposite directions. Overall,
we find that most proposals that entail a partial privatization of pensions reduce the willingness of the society to fund
public education. 相似文献
7.
文章在一个内生经济增长的OLG模型框架下研究现收现付制养老保险计划的挤出效应。具体考察公共养老金税率变动对家庭的消费与储蓄、生育选择以及经济增长的长期影响。结果表明,存在向上利他动机的情况下,挤出效应的大小取决于养老基金的规模,适度规模的公共养老金计划不会挤出私人储蓄。而有利于消费增加与经济增长;较大规模的公共养老金计划会对私人自愿储蓄与消费产生负面影响,并且对储蓄的挤出作用要大于对消费的挤出。人口老龄化进程在一定程度上缓解挤出效应,促进资本积累与经济增长。 相似文献
8.
Wigger BU 《Journal of population economics》1999,12(4):625-640
Employing an overlapping generations endogenous growth model in which parents derive utility from having children and, additionally,
expect children to support them in old age, this paper explores the interrelation between growth, fertility, and the size
of pay-as-you-go financed public pensions. It is shown that small sized public pensions stimulate per capita income growth,
but further increases in public pensions eventually reduce it. Fertility, on the other hand, falls by an increase in public
pensions if they are either small or large. Medium sized public pensions, however, may stimulate fertility.
Received: 9 September 1997 / Accepted: 10 April 1998 相似文献
9.
This paper analyses the relation between public pensions, fertility and child care in a closed-economy overlapping generations
model with endogenous fertility. It is shown that raising a child involves two social externalities and that it is optimal
to introduce child allowances if the government redistributes income from the young to the old. The optimal child allowance
rises when longevity increases. If the costs of raising children depend positively on the wage, a third externality arises
and the returns to savings should be taxed.
相似文献
Lex MeijdamEmail: |
10.
Low fertility in most developed countries has prompted policy concern in relation to labour market supply, pensions, and expenditure
on health and welfare services as well as policy debate about both the cost of children and the opportunity costs of parenthood.
The extent to which family policy interventions can be effective in slowing or reversing fertility decline is much debated.
This paper, based on a fertility module of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 2005, examines the current fertility, and
ideal and expected fertility of a nationally representative sample of 455 parents of reproductive age and focuses on whether
they plan to have another child. It compares the characteristics of those who intend to have another child with those who
do not, and how parents with one child differ from those with more children. It addresses three questions about family size:
(1) fertility ideals, (2) resources and the economic implications of childbearing, and (3) opportunities for childbearing
and the effects of a late start on fertility expectations. It concludes that, despite a sustained period of low fertility
in Scotland, childbearing ideals are robust and explanations of low fertility must derive from difficulties in realising those
ideals. Difficulties in realising fertility aspirations are associated less with resources than with opportunities for childbearing,
especially the timing of first birth. Those who delay their first birth are less likely to realise their ideal family size,
and their lower fertility is associated with the opportunity costs of childbearing in terms of foregone qualifications, careers
and earnings. 相似文献
11.
Using aggregate time-series data from post-war Hungary, we investigated the effect of child-related benefits and pensions on overall fertility and fertility by birth order. The results indicate moderate effects that are robust across a wide range of specifications. According to our estimates, a 1-per-cent increase in child-related benefits would increase total fertility by 0.2 per cent, while the same increase in pensions would decrease fertility by 0.2 per cent. The magnitude of both effects increases by birth order; this is more robust for child-related benefits. 相似文献
12.
Australia’s low fertility rate is commonly attributed to deliberate decisions by women to avoid having children. Existing
theoretical explanations of fertility decision-making mostly view childbearing as a rational, voluntary process and focus
on the ‘costs’ to women of having children. Although this may help explain why women do not have children, it contributes
very little to understanding why women do have children. This study describes childbearing desires, expectations and outcomes
in a population-based sample of 569 30–34-years-old Australian women recruited from the Australian Electoral Roll in 2005.
Most women surveyed wanted to have children, and their childbearing outcomes were associated with biological, psychological
and social factors including the lack of a partner and adverse health conditions. The factors and their relative importance
varied by parity. Most women had fewer children than they desired, and many would have children, or more children, if their
circumstances were different. These data challenge prevailing assumptions about women’s childbearing behaviour that women
are able to choose when and if they have a child. Based on the findings, a conceptual framework of childbearing behaviour
is proposed which builds on existing theoretical explanations to explain why women do and do not have children, differences
by parity, and the role of circumstances in women’s childbearing behaviour. The findings and conceptual framework have implications
for public policies, and indicate that multiple approaches are required which are sensitive to and address the barriers women
face in family formation. 相似文献
13.
Pension reform and labor market incentives 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
This paper investigates how parametric reform in a pay-as-you-go pension system with a tax–benefit link affects retirement
and work incentives of prime-age workers. We find that postponed retirement tends to harm incentives of prime-age workers
in the presence of a tax–benefit link, thereby creating a policy trade-off in stimulating aggregate labor supply. We show
how several popular reform scenarios are geared either towards young or old workers or, indeed, both groups under appropriate
conditions. We characterize the excess burden of pension insurance and show how it depends on the supply elasticities of both
decision margins and the effective tax rates. 相似文献
14.
This study examines the link between divorced nonresident fathers’ proximity and children’s long-run outcomes, using high-quality
data from Norwegian population registers. We follow (from birth to young adulthood) each of 15,992 children born into married
households in Norway in the years 1975–1979 whose parents divorced during his or her childhood. We observe the proximity of
the child to his or her father in each year following the divorce and link proximity to educational and economic outcomes
for the child in young adulthood, controlling for a wide range of observable characteristics of the parents and the child.
Our results show that closer proximity to the father following a divorce has, on average, a modest negative association with
offspring’s outcomes in young adulthood. The negative associations are stronger among children of highly educated fathers.
Complementary Norwegian survey data show that highly educated fathers report more post-divorce conflict with their ex-wives
as well as more contact with their children (measured in terms of the number of nights that the child spends at the father’s
house). Consequently, the father’s relocation to a more distant location following the divorce may shelter the child from
disruptions in the structure of the child’s life as they split time between households and/or from post-divorce interparental
conflict. 相似文献
15.
Lareen Newman 《Journal of Population Research》2008,25(1):1-27
The low-fertility debate in developed countries has focused on the limits to family size posed by the financial costs of raising
children, and difficulties combining work and family. Little attention has been given to the physical and socio-psychological
experiences of conception, pregnancy, birth and early parenthood, and their potential effect on parity progression. Womens
rising education and workforce participation rates are often seen as key factors in fertility decline, offering attractive
alternatives to motherhood, but research suggests that they also undermine levels of knowledge, confidence and interest in
motherhood. Demographers have made almost no link between people having fewer children than they might otherwise have had
and their previous childbearing and childrearing experiences. Interviews conducted in South Australia in 2003–04 with parents
of both small and large families show that fertility and family size are influenced both negatively and positively by experiences
of having had children. The paper argues that if low fertility rates are to be stabilized or raised in developed countries,
then researchers and policymakers must consider the physical and socio-psychological costs of having children for parents,
and provide support mechanisms so that experiences of parenthood contribute as little as possible to fertility gaps and delayed
fertility. 相似文献
16.
Giam Pietro Cipriani 《Journal of population economics》2014,27(1):251-256
This paper shows the effects on a pay-as-you-go pension system of the demographic change in the standard overlapping generations model. Firstly, we consider a setting with exogenous fertility and then a model with endogenous fertility. In both cases, population aging due to increased longevity implies a reduction in pensions payouts. 相似文献
17.
Yuk King Lau 《Social indicators research》2010,95(3):363-376
Work and family conflicts are always viewed as issues of human resource management or occupational health. Insufficient attention
has been focused on the impact on child development and quality of parenting, especially regarding the impact of a father’s
work. To examine the impact of work and family conflicts on the quality of father–child interactions in Hong Kong, a cross-sectional
survey was conducted. In total, 556 pairs of working fathers and their school-aged children participated in the survey. The
findings of the survey indicated that fathers’ work-to-family conflicts negatively affected the quality of father–child interactions,
which in turn caused harm to children’s self-esteem. In addition to work-family conflicts, a low income level of the fathers,
a larger number of children in the family, and the presence in the family of children approaching adolescence were significant
risk factors to the quality of father–child interactions. The mothers’ active parental involvement and the complexity of the
fathers’ occupation were significant protective factors of the quality of father–child interactions. To facilitate strong
family bonding and good quality parenting, possible measures to ensure a healthy work-family balance among working fathers
are discussed. 相似文献
18.
Donald J. Bogue 《Journal of Population Research》2010,27(4):275-292
Hispanic fertility (primarily among nationals from Mexico, Central and South America in the US) is higher today than it is
in Mexico and the other nations of origin (Frank and Heuveline 2005). It persists into the second and third generations, with only moderate signs of declining to replacement. Meanwhile, the
fertility rates of African–Americans, American Indians Cubans, and Puerto Ricans have all declined to replacement, only slightly
above the non-Hispanic white population. This study attempts to clarify the question why African–American fertility has declined
to replacement, but Hispanic fertility has not. The data used are from Cycle 6 of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG)
of 2002. Differences in physiological or marital-status factors are found not to explain these fertility differences; however,
there are significant differences in the practice of contraception during early childbearing years. Slightly less effective
methods if contraception is used, and less recourse to abortion if a pregnancy is undesired, all imply higher fertility for
Hispanic women. Underlying contraceptive behaviour are sets of attitudes and motives that favour, permit, or seek childbearing.
A much higher percentage of Hispanic than African–American women report that they wanted their last birth and intend to have
another in the future. Hispanic women of all socio-economic statuses are considerably more pronatal in their attitudes, particularly
with respect to the births of first and second children. 相似文献
19.
We document the incidence and evolution of family complexity from the perspective of children. Following a cohort of firstborn
children whose mothers were not married at the time of their birth, we consider family structure changes over the first 10 years
of the child’s life—considering both full and half-siblings who are coresidential or who live in another household. We rely
on detailed longitudinal administrative data from Wisconsin that include information on the timing of subsequent births to
the mother and father, and detailed information on earnings, child support, and welfare. We find that 60% of firstborn children
of unmarried mothers have at least one half-sibling by age 10. Our results highlight the importance of having fertility information
for both fathers and mothers: estimates of the proportion of children with half-siblings would be qualitatively lower if we
had fertility information on only one parent. Complex family structures are more likely for children of parents who are younger
or who have low earnings and for those in larger urban areas. Children who have half-siblings on their mother’s side are also
more likely to have half-siblings on their father’s side, and vice versa, contributing to very complex family structures—and
potential child support arrangements—for some children. 相似文献
20.
Anders Björklund 《Journal of population economics》2006,19(1):3-24
From the mid-1960s to around 1980, Sweden extended its family policies that provide financial and in-kind support to families
with children very quickly. The benefits were closely tied to previous work experience. Thus, women born in the 1950s faced
markedly different incentives when making fertility choices compared to women born only 15–20 years earlier. This paper examines
the evolution of completed fertility patterns for Swedish women born in 1925–1958 and makes comparisons to women in neighbouring
countries where the policies were not extended as much as in Sweden. The results suggest that the extension of the policy
raised the level of fertility, shortened the spacing of births, and induced fluctuations in the period fertility rates, but
it did not change the negative relationship between women’s educational level and completed fertility. 相似文献