Subjective probabilities and utility with event-dependent preferences

This article generalizes Savage's theory to include event-dependent preferences. The state space is partitioned into finitely many events. The induced preferences over consequences are assumed independent of the underlying states within, but not across, these events. This results in an additively separable representation of preferences over acts. The dependence of the preference relation over consequences on the events is represented by event-dependent mappings of the set of consequences onto itself. Given these mappings, the preferences on acts are represented by the expectation of event-dependent utilities on the consequences with respect to unique subjective probabilities on the states.Helpful discussions with David Schmeidler are gratefully acknowledged.     

Parenting with Learning Difficulties: Lessons for Practitioners

Correspondence to Dr Tim Booth, Department of Sociological Studies, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN. Summary Parents with learning difficulties form an underserved needsgroup whose numbers are steadily increasing and are likely tocontinue to do so as a result of deinstitutionalization, communitycare and the acceptance of ‘ordinary life’ principlesas a basis for service provision. This article reviews the researchliterature on parenting by people with learning difficultiesin order to draw out the lessons for practitioners and to assistthem in developing a clearer view of their aims and approachwhen working with these families. Case vignettes from an ongoingstudy of mothers and fathers with learning difficulties areused to illustrate the common themes. The authors conclude thatservice providers still have much to learn about how best theycan secure and uphold the citizenship rights of these parentsas well as protect the welfare of their children.     

Portfolio allocation and asset demand with mean-variance preferences

We analyze the comparative static effects of changes in the means, the standard deviations and the covariance of asset returns in a standard portfolio selection problem when investors have mean variance preferences. Simple and intuitive characterizations in terms of the elasticity of risk aversion are provided.     

现实题材电视剧创作困境问题的浅解

从理论上讲,现实题材电视剧是当下生活的一面镜子,它能以艺术化审美的方式洞烛现实社会,关注社会生活的时代变迁,以高度负责的艺术精神张扬时代情怀。从现实上看,当下现实题材电视剧的创作与播出数量极其有限,能够称之为艺术精品的少之又少。究其实是现实题材电视剧矛盾冲突缺失,戏剧张力不够。官方、制作方和社会大众都有从各自立场和角度发出的种种批评与解读,孰是孰非,根本原因首先是因为在市场化了的影视剧市场,作为投资者现实题材电视剧制作风险较大,其次是作为创作者对当下的现实生活没有得到艺术性的＂沉淀＂,难于把握其内在神韵,无法克服必须让矛盾冲突缺失这一障碍。     

A theory of subjective expected utility with vague preferences

This paper shows how notions of vagueness in preferences and judgments of personal probabilities can be accommodated within an axiomatization of subjective expected utility by the use of extraneous scaling probabilities and gambles on consequences. The representational form obtained says that the subjective expected utility of one act exceeds the subjective expected utility of a second act whenever the first is preferred to the second. The paper also explores the possibility of obtaining this representational form under Savage's formulation, which does not use extraneous probabilities, and discusses difficulties encountered in this approach.     

Perceptions of preparedness to assist elders with end-of-life care preferences

Using a systematic sample of Florida licensed clinical social workers (N = 272), this study found that respondents perceived themselves capable of assisting elders with end-of-life care decisions and considered themselves moderately knowledgeable of resources available to elder clients. Respondents indicated slightly positive attitudes for work with elders and elders with Alzheimer's disease, and most respondents believed that elders should have the right of physician-assisted suicide. Using multivariate analysis, four predictor variables were identified that account for 61.3% of the adjusted variance of the dependent variable of preparedness to assist elders with end-of-life care preferences. These predictor variables were (a) knowledge of resources available to elders, (b) desirability of working with elders, (c) desirability of working with elders with Alzheimer's disease, and (d) attitude toward assisted suicide.     

Interpersonal dependency of preferences

Standard decision theoretic models disregard the phenomenon of interpersonal dependency of preferences. In this paper it is argued that interpersonal dependency of preferences is a serious challenge for standard utility theory. First we sketch the more philosophical aspects of the problem and then, using a simple, formal model for the two-person case, we show that interpersonal dependency of preferences generally results in indeterminacy of preferences (resp. of subjective utility).     

Democracy and interdependent preferences

In a democracy, the views and wishes of the citizens are to count. The problem here is how this dictum is to be understood. I suggest that a proper analysis requires that each person's preferences be seen in the context of his beliefs concerning the preferences of the others and of the preferences he would have if he held different beliefs. Preferences founded on erroneous beliefs call for special consideration. So also do certain reluctantly held preferences. I propose a decision-policy involving the identification of social equilibria of preference.     

Dopamine receptor genes predict risk preferences,time preferences,and related economic choices

Outside of economics, researchers have recently identified genetic predictors of “sensation-seeking” that have been linked to risky and impulsive behaviors. We examine the implications of these genetic polymorphisms for economic behavior. Our analysis indicates that the 7-repeat allele of the DRD4 gene that regulates dopamine uptake in the brain predicts risk-taking and time preferences in economic experiments that allow for ambiguity, losses and discounting. These genetic polymorphisms can also be used to directly predict financial choice patterns that are consistent with previous findings in the behavioral genetics literature.     

Uncertain discount and hyperbolic preferences

This paper studies the interaction between savagean uncertainty and time preferences. We introduce a variation of the discounted subjective expected utility model, where time preferences are state dependent. Before uncertainty is resolved, the individual is unsure about the discount factor that will be used, even when evaluating certain payoffs. The model can account for the present bias and diminishing impatience, even if the future is discounted geometrically. The present bias disappears when the immediate payoff becomes uncertain. Although preferences are not stationary, choices may be time consistent.     

Heterogeneous risk and time preferences

Assessing individuals’ time and risk preferences is crucial in domains such as health-related decisions (e.g., dieting, addictions), environmentally-friendly practices, and saving opportunities. We propose a new method to jointly elicit and estimate risk attitudes and intertemporal choices. We use a novel individual level estimation procedure based on a hierarchical Bayes methodology, which can integrate different functional forms for discounting and risk attitudes. This method provides individual level estimates, and allows us to explore the heterogeneity in the data. In addition, we report a negative correlation between risk and time preferences, implying that risk-seeking individuals are less patient and less willing to defer consumption.     

Elicitation of preferences under ambiguity

This paper is about behaviour under ambiguity—that is, a situation in which probabilities either do not exist or are not known. Our objective is to find the most empirically valid of the increasingly large number of theories attempting to explain such behaviour. We use experimentally-generated data to compare and contrast the theories. The incentivised experimental task we employed was that of allocation: in a series of problems we gave the subjects an amount of money and asked them to allocate the money over three accounts, the payoffs to them being contingent on a ‘state of the world’ with the occurrence of the states being ambiguous. We reproduced ambiguity in the laboratory using a Bingo Blower. We fitted the most popular and apparently empirically valid preference functionals [Subjective Expected Utility (SEU), MaxMin Expected Utility (MEU) and α-MEU], as well as Mean-Variance (MV) and a heuristic rule, Safety First (SF). We found that SEU fits better than MV and SF and only slightly worse than MEU and α-MEU.     

Time preferences and consumer behavior

We investigate the predictive power of survey-elicited time preferences. The discount factor elicited from choice experiments using real payments predicts various health, energy, and financial outcomes, including overall self-reported health, smoking, installing energy-efficient lighting, and credit card balance. Allowing for time-inconsistent preferences, both the long-run and present-bias discount factors (δ and β) are also significantly associated in the expected direction with several outcomes. We consider several hypotheses regarding the strength of the association between discount factors and outcomes, such as salience of the outcome or liquidity constraints.     

Nontransitive preferences in decision theory

Intransitive preferences have been a topic of curiosity, study, and debate over the past 40 years. Many economists and decision theorists insist on transitivity as the cornerstone of rational choice, and even in behavioral decision theory intransitivities are often attributed to faulty experiments, random or sloppy choices, poor judgment, or unexamined biases. But others see intransitive preferences as potential truths of reasoned comparisons and propose representations of preferences that accommodate intransitivities. This article offers a partial survey of models for intransitive preferences in a variety of decisional contexts. These include economic consumer theory, multiattribute utility theory, game theory, preference between time streams, and decision making under risk and uncertainty. The survey is preceded by a discussion of issues that bear on the relevance and reasonableness of intransitivity.     

Temporal Discrimination and Parents with Learning Difficulties in the Child Protection System

This article shows how time works against parents with learningdifficulties in the child protection system and Children Actproceedings. The prevailing wisdom, embedded in policy and theliterature, is that delay in care cases is bad for the childand may jeopardize his or her future. This paper shows how thepressure to avoid delay might itself be harming some families,especially parents with learning difficulties. Drawing on interviewswith social work practitioners undertaken as part of a largerstudy, the authors describe the various forms of temporal discriminationthat impact on this group of disabled parents. They concludethat procedural time limits make it harder for parents withlearning difficulties to meet the standards and expectationsenforced by Children’s Services and the courts.     

家庭经济困难大学生思想现状调查研究

伴随市场经济体制和高校教育体制改革,高校家庭经济困难学生的思想状况成为一个热点问题.文章通过五个模块的问卷调查和数据分析研究,进一步了解家庭经济困难学生思想现状以及对物质帮扶、精神帮扶的看法、态度等,为改进家庭经济困难学生思想政治工作和完善高校家庭经济困难学生帮扶机制提供现实依据.     

Indirect methods for valuing changes in environmental risks with nonexpected utility preferences

Theoretical models for estimating individuals' values for sure improvements in environmental quality are well developed. These models can be classified as being based on averting behavior, hedonic prices, or weak complementarity. Some of these models have also been applied to the task of valuing changes in risk based on expected utility theory. This article provides a systematic development of these models for changes in either the probability or the magnitude of an uncertain event and shows that the derived expressions for individual marginal willingness to pay can be generalized to nonexpected utility preferences as long as the index of preferences is continuous, convex, and twice differentiable.