Public income transfers and wealth accumulation at the bottom: Within and between country differences in Canada and the United States

Both Canada and the United States are considered liberal welfare states, yet exhibit notable differences in income poverty attributed to social policy. While a more generous welfare system lifts many above income poverty, models of household financial behaviour suggest that more income from the state should displace private savings via a substitution effect. Using nationally representative wealth surveys from Canada and the US from 1998/1999 to 2016 we extend knowledge on the relationship between the welfare state and private wealth accumulation. Specifically, we study household asset poverty defined as financial asset levels that fall below three-month adjusted income poverty threshold. Asset poverty rates varied over time in the two countries and were higher in the less generous US welfare state. Further, income transfer share was positively related to asset poverty in Canada but not in the US. Counterfactual estimates offered evidence of the substitution effect in Canada, where higher levels of transfers may crowd out private asset accumulation. Results invite further consideration of the concept of asset poverty and its relationship to welfare state characteristics.     

The Politics of Public and Private Pension Generosity in Advanced Democracies

The quantitative strand of social policy research suffers from a triple deficit: analyses of aggregate expenditure dominate, most of the few studies of replacement rates focus on unemployment or sickness benefits while pensions are excluded, and the interdependence between public and private pension plans is often ignored. This article addresses the said deficits, first, by discussing the pension sectors' theoretical peculiarities and by proposing two hypotheses: one on the role played by political parties in implementing public pension retrenchment, and the second on their role in extending private pension plans. Second, the article presents regression results of public pension replacement rate changes in 18 developed democracies. The findings show considerably smaller cuts to pensions than to unemployment or sickness benefits, and striking differences regarding partisan effects between the sectors. Lastly, the article assesses partisan effects on private pension plans, detecting some rather surprising effects. Most noteworthy is the fact that those parties which reduced public pension generosity during the 1990s (i.e. Social Democrats) cannot claim responsibility for compensating these cuts by eliciting higher private engagement.     

Are government wages interlinked with private sector wages?

The ongoing fiscal and financial crisis with significant macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area raises the question in how far public–private wage interaction and even wage spirals contribute to fiscal and competitiveness problems. In this vain we analyse empirically whether the evolution of public sector wages is decoupled from that of the private sector. Using data for number of OECD countries, we find: (i) a strong and extremely robust positive annual contemporaneous correlation of public and private sector wages over the business cycle; (ii) evidence of co-movement of these variables over the medium and long run. From a policy perspective, the findings of this study suggest public wage restraint and private wage flexibility coupled—where needed—with institutional reform to prevent or break public–private wage spirals.     

公共财政与中国国民收入的高储蓄倾向(英文)

本文将国有企业从“企业部门”中分离出来,与“政府部门”合并为“公共部门”,其储蓄率称为“公共部门储蓄率”;并将非国有企业与居民合并为“私人部门”,其储蓄率称为“私人部门储蓄率”。据此提出的中国高储蓄率的公共财政假说认为：2000年以来中国储蓄率持续高涨,是由政府的赢利性动机及其对公共财政职能产生的挤出效应推动的,并带来了公共支出的不足。结果,居民和非国有企业不得不增加预防性储蓄。利用我国1996--2006年30个省面板实证检验的结果验证了此假说。     

Debt, deficits and the dollar

This paper examines the relationship between the budget deficit and the trade deficit in the United States by presenting new evidence on the impact effects of debt disturbances on the exchange rate. Based upon estimates of a general two-country portfolio-balance model, we find evidence that increases in the U.S. debt stock have caused an appreciation in the U.S. dollar relative to the German mark and the Canadian dollar over the period 1973II–1987II. Correspondingly, this paper presents evidence on the linkage between the budget deficit and the trade deficit arising through the exchange rate.     

The Drug‐Laden Balloon: U.S. Military Assistance and Coca Production in the Central Andes*

Objective. This article explores the empirical effects of U.S. drug policy on coca cultivation in the Central Andes. We assess the impact of U.S. military assistance on the production of coca in the Central Andes, while controlling for other explanatory variables that influence coca cultivation. Method. Using data from 1980–2001 for Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru, we perform a pooled cross‐sectional time‐series analysis. Results. The effects of U.S. military assistance on coca cultivation are not uniform across the Central Andes. Coca production decreased in Bolivia and Peru and increased in Colombia. Total coca production in the Central Andes, however, remained unchanged. Conclusion. This study is consistent with existing literature that points out the obstacles governments face as they attempt to suppress illicit goods. Specifically, our empirical findings support the idea of the “balloon effect,” whereby government efforts to “squeeze” illicit trade in one area result in the expansion of that trade elsewhere.     

Estimating the demand for risky assets via the indirect expected utility function

This article obtains demand functions for risky assets without making a priori assumptions about the form of the utility function. In a simple portfolio model, the envelope theorem is applied to the indirect expected utility function to derive estimating equations. Tests for the existence of constant absolute or constant relative risk aversion are also developed. Empirical estimation of the demand for financial assets held by U.S. households for the period 1946–1985 indicates that aggregate household behavior is consistent with the existence of constant relative risk aversion, with the coefficient of risk aversion having a value of approximately 1.3.The authors gratefully acknowledge helpful comments from the editor and an anonymous referee.     

Policing Urban America: A New Look at the Politics of Agency Size*

Objectives. This article analyzes competing explanations for variation in the relative size of contemporary police forces in larger U.S. cities. The featured explanation is conflict theory, which previously provided much evidence for a racial threat thesis but limited evidence that racial insurgency affected police mobilization in the 1960s and 1970s. Methods. The study sample consists of the 66 cities with a population of at least 250,000 in 2000. Aggregate data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, Congressional Quarterly's America Votes, and the U.S. Census Bureau are combined with a content analysis using the Lexis‐Nexis regional news database to generate the data set. OLS regression modeling is applied to the analysis of this cross‐sectional data set. Results. This analysis shows that the size of contemporary police forces is substantially shaped not only by the legacy of the 1960–1970 wave of racial unrest in the United States, but also by reaction to racial disorders in the 1980s and 1990s and by the prevalence of racial minorities in the current population. Conclusions. Police departments' relative force size in 2000 is not only a result of incremental growth from the size attained by 1980, but also is dramatically shaped by whether the city experienced a race riot from 1980–2000 and, to a lesser extent, the size of the minority population and the violent crime rate. City wealth is a less robust indicator; and there is no evidence that either community ideology or the degree of uptake of community policing matters.     

Heterogeneous impacts of provincial governance on household welfare in Vietnam

This study investigated the role of provincial governance in the growth of per capita income of Vietnamese households, using a balanced panel data set for the period 2012–2014. Although we found no evidence for the influence of provincial governance when a linear fixed‐effect regression estimator was used, the results from a fixed‐effect quantile regression estimator revealed that provincial governance has a positive effect on all groups (but not the poorest) and that the effect tends to be greater for better‐off households. In addition, we found that wage employment plays a larger role in the income growth of poorer households, whereas returns on education are greater for richer households. The findings suggest that a mean regression approach that looks only a t the role of explanatory variables on mean household welfare, and does not consider differences in the distribution of household welfare, may miss some heterogeneity that is of interest to policymakers. Key Practitioner Message: ? Using a quantile regression approach has allowed the current study to provide new insight into the role of household‐related factors in household welfare. ? Finding shows that good governance tends to provide greater benefits to richer households than to other groups in the population.     

Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from Tunisia

This paper examined an empirical investigation of whether financial development can boost economic growth in Tunisia. We used an Autoregressive Distributed Lag method to assess the finance-growth relation taking private credit, value traded and issuing bank's securities on the financial market as financial development indicators.The empirical results showed that the domestic credit to private sector has a positive effect on the economic growth suggesting that the financial development is a driver of a long term economic growth, but subject to a financial fragility at the short run. Moreover, this study confirmed the view of bidirectional relationship between credit and economic growth. However, we found that neither the stock market development nor the intervention of banks in the stock market had robust and positive effects on the economic growth. Thus, Tunisia is recommended to accelerate in priority the financial reforms of the Tunisian stock market in order to contribute to mobilize savings and promote long run economic growth.     

The impact of racially disproportionate outcomes on public policy: The U.S. Senate and the death penalty

The implementation of particular public policies may infringe upon important civil rights of citizens. This article explores the relationship between the racially disproportionate effects of the death penalty and a subsequent attempt in the U.S. Senate to provide racial justice protection. While the most important explanatory factors of a senator's behavior are their political philosophy and the state homicide rate the findings also indicate that racially disproportionate outcomes under capital punishment in the senator's state are negatively associated with the probability that the senator will support racial justice protection. We discuss the importance of these findings.     

From Riches to Riches: Intergenerational Transfers and the Evidence from Estate Tax Returns*

Objective. Intergenerational transfers of wealth and ability can influence the distribution of wealth. This research examines the empirical relationships among intergenerational variables and cross‐sectional wealth distribution. Methods. Models pioneered by Gary Becker set out the conditions necessary for regression to the mean in wealth across generations. However, empirical testing of such models has been incomplete because large, reliable, intergenerational data sets—especially with data from three generations—are hard to find. This article unveils a remarkable new source of intergenerationally linked data: federal estate tax records filed in Wisconsin from 1916 to 1981 and linked across three generations of families. Results. Wealth tends to regress to the mean at the top end of the distribution, but slowly. Consequently, wealth inequality in the United States is likely to persist. What is more, recent federal tax changes, particularly the repeal of the estate tax and the reduction in capital gains tax rates, will exacerbate cross‐sectional wealth disparities. Conclusions. In the long run, intergenerational forces may help overcome inequalities in wealth across U.S. families. Empirical results suggest, however, that regression to the mean will occur quite slowly, and the long run could be long indeed.     

Community socioeconomic status and disparities in mortgage lending: An analysis of Metropolitan Detroit

This note examines the effects of community socioeconomic status on mortgage lending patterns in Metropolitan Detroit. Data from 2000 HMDA reports and the 2000 U.S. Census are analyzed using multiple regression. The results from this analysis have two important implications for research on mortgage lending. First, they indicate that the effects of variables linked to a community's socioeconomic status on mortgage lending patterns are highly intercorrelated. As a result, variations in mortgage lending appear to be the result of the combined effects of a number of socioeconomic variables acting together. Second, the results from this analysis indicate that the socioeconomic status of a community is positively correlated with mortgage lending activity. In other words, a decline in neighborhood socioeconomic status is significantly correlated with a decline in mortgage lending.     

Impact of Japanese investment in U.S. automobile production

The transfer of automobile production by Japanese firms to the United States represents a giant direct foreign investment. Using the disaggregated NIRA U.S.-Japan model in the framework of Project LINK, this article evaluates the impact of these investments on the U.S. and Japanese economies. The benefit in terms of auto production, capacity, employment, activity in supplier industries, and aggregate GNP in the United States is readily apparent. Japanese industry has incentives to move production into the United States to avoid protectionism and to guard against adverse movements of the exchange rate and production costs, but there is some loss in output and related variables in Japan.     

中美证券市场在险价值比较分析

在险价值作为金融行业计量市场风险的一种工具,已经被广泛接受。从期望在险价值的概念,计算出中美证券市场的期望在险价值并从实证研究中得出以下三个结论:从投资风险角度来看,中国证券市场的投资风险高于美国证券市场,同时证实上海证券市场的投资风险略高于深圳证券市场;就美国证券市场而言,投资风险最近十年低于整个100年的风险;上证指数和深成指数自设定以来季度在险价值服从分布,而美国整个100年的道琼斯工业指数的季度不服从分布,但近十年的季度服从分布。     

Cross-border school enrolment: Associated factors in the U.S.–Mexico borderlands

This paper examines students who live in Mexico but attend school in the U.S., and looks into the factors associated with their decision to study abroad. Based on Mexico’s 2015 Intercensal Survey, cross-border students are described in terms of their number, location, educational level and socioeconomic characteristics. Subsequently, the study estimates probit models to analyze the factors associated with studying in the United States. Cross-border students are mainly U.S.-born and concentrated in Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. The probability of being a cross-border student is positively associated with age, household income and having a household member who was born in the U.S. or is a cross-border worker. Cross-border students come from high-income households with strong ties to the United States. The decision to study in the U.S. is likely taken due to the higher quality of the country’s education system and to facilitate an eventual transition into the U.S. labor market.     

中国农村家庭演变:“核心化”还是“个体化”?——以私房钱的道德评价为切入点

当前中国家庭研究范式出现了从"家族主义"到"个体家庭"的转变,在此背景下,本文从家庭经济生活角度切入,通过勾勒农村居民评价私房钱的道德框架,讨论中国农村家庭仍然是在"核心化"轨迹上还是走向了"个体化"。研究发现,私房钱的来源、数额及用途,家庭经济控制情况和亲密关系状况是村民评价私房钱道德与否的重要因素。这些因素都被包含在"个体/家庭"框架下,其中是否影响核心家庭的财产安全和生计安全构成私房钱道德评价的核心标准。研究认为,中国农村家庭的发展轨迹仍然是"核心化"而非"个体化"。     

International transmission of monetary and global commodity price shocks to Turkey

This paper explores the international transmission mechanisms on the macroeconomic and monetary variables of Turkey and hence proposes some particular policy implications. The effects of monetary shocks stemming from the U.S. and the European area, and global commodity price shocks are investigated using a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) approach. For the analysis, we use monthly data from 2002M01 to 2016M06 and we analyze the transmission mechanism in Turkey using two different SVAR model specifications. Our results reveal that shocks coming from the U.S. and the Euro area lead to significantly different responses on industrial production, consumer prices, real effective exchange rates, and the domestic interest rate, with the Euro area monetary expansion having more explicit and positive effects on the real economy. The global commodity price shocks affect the Turkish macroeconomic variables in a similar but much less powerful fashion than that of the U.S. monetary expansion. As our empirical findings point out that the Turkish economy is vulnerable to global monetary and commodity price shocks. This vulnerability necessitates moving to a sustainable growth path consistent with a sustainable current account balance and a sustainable private and government debt coupled with a strengthened macroprudential regime and comprehensive structural reforms.     

A Legal Structure for Limiting the Agency Cost of Stock Rights Transfer

股权表决权能的单独处分会减损其他股东的福利，资本多数决之下限制或者禁止股权转让的合约安排可能会侵害股东的退出权，进而减损股权市场对高管的制约力量，间接推高管理层滥权谋私的代理成小。在创设股权转让的法律结构时，必须任合约自由、资本多数决与降低代理成本之间求取妥当的平衡。法官应认定投票权转让行为无效，以保证投票权与剩余索取权匹配，并保持股东投票权之于高管的约束功能。章程概括性地禁止股权转让，阻塞了股东退出权，不利于遏制控股股东与高管潜在的滥权行为，当属无效。法官必须本着长期契约与短期契约、章程初始条款及修订条款的差异化视角，区分各类限制股权转让的章程约定的效力。     

A Legal Structure for Limiting the Agency Cost of Stock Rights Transfer

The unilateral disposition of stock rights’ voting rights detracts from the welfare of the other shareholders. Contractual arrangements restricting or prohibiting the transfer of stock rights under the capital majority rule may infringe upon shareholders’ right of withdrawal, further weakening stock market constraints on senior management and indirectly raising the agency cost of management abuse of power for private ends. In creating a legal structure for stock rights transfer, we need to find an appropriate balance between freedom of contract, capital majority rule and reduction of agency costs. Judges should determine that the transfer of voting rights is invalid in order to ensure that voting rights match residual claim rights and maintain the constraints on senior management represented by shareholder voting rights. The general prohibition of stock rights transfer in the articles of association blocks shareholders’ right of withdrawal; this is not conducive to restraining potential abuses of power on the part of senior management and should be made invalid. Judges must differentiate between long- and short-term contracts and the initial and revised clauses of the articles of association in order to distinguish between the efficacy of different arrangements limiting transfer of stock rights as laid down in the articles of association.