Barack Obama's “American” Problem: Unhyphenated Americans in the 2008 Elections*

Objectives. The largest increase of any ancestry group between the 1990 and 2000 Census in the United States were “unhyphenated Americans,” those whites who claimed an “American” or no ancestry. This article measures this group's voting habits in the 2008 elections. Methods. With individual‐level attitudinal data and county‐level voting data from the 2008 primary and 2000–2008 general elections, the analyses use quantitative methods to estimate unhyphenated Americans' voting behavior. Results. Evidence indicates a strong rejection of Obama among counties with high proportions of unhyphenated Americans in both the 2008 primary and general elections. Conclusion. While spatially concentrated in and near Appalachia, unhyphenated Americans' politics are distinctive irrespective of socioeconomic status, religion, and geography, being one of the few groups in which Barack Obama lost votes compared to previous Democratic nominees. Variation in the share of unhyphenated Americans explains more of the difference between 2008 and past elections than variation in the share of African Americans per county.     

Following the Rules? Candidate Strategy in Presidential Primaries*

Objectives. The competitiveness of the 2008 presidential primaries in both the Republican and Democratic parties has prompted a reconsideration of the role of delegate‐selection rules in influencing the strategic behavior of presidential candidates. Using advertising and candidate state‐visit data from the 2004 and 2008 presidential nominating campaigns, we reexamine the strategies presidential candidates use when competing for the nomination of their party. Methods. Using the Wisconsin Advertising Project Data from 2004 and 2008, we estimate several multiple regressions designed to analyze the factors predicting candidate visits and advertising. Results. We find that, to a large extent, the rules of the game help predict where candidates allocate their political advertising and campaign stops; candidates consider whether a contest is a primary or caucus, they pay attention to how many delegates are at stake, and they consider whether a state's delegate‐allocation method is largely proportional or winner take all. Yet we also find some differences in how the rules influence frontrunners and long‐shot candidates, and we discover how other factors, including a candidate's access to financial resources, influence the allocation of ads and visits. Conclusion. Our findings offer some of the first empirical evidence for the idea that a state's delegate‐allocation method influences candidates' resource‐allocation behavior. That these rules matter at all is somewhat of a surprise given that the delegate‐allocation methods used by states have become more homogenous within each party.     

Compassionate Values and Presidential Politics: Mortality Salience, Compassionate Values, and Support for Barack Obama and John McCain in the 2008 Presidential Election

In line with terror management theory, this research demonstrates that mortality salience motivated increased support for John McCain in the absence of reminders of compassionate values. However, polls had indicated that Barack Obama was generally perceived as the more compassionate of the two candidates. Thus, when compassionate values were made salient, death reminders motivated participants to uphold these values by significantly increasing their support for the more compassionate Barack Obama instead. The implications of these findings for terror management theory, the 2008 presidential election, and political endorsements are discussed .     

Existing Diversity and Judicial Selection: The Role of the Appointment Method in Establishing Gender Diversity in State Supreme Courts

Objectives . To explore differences in the appointment and election method of selecting state high court justices in promoting gender diversity, and to explore the effect of existing gender diversity within the political institutions on the selection of women to office. Methods . Our data include all justices who have been selected to state courts of last resort from 1980 through 1997. We use logistic regression analysis to test the effect of existing gender diversity on a high court on the likelihood that a woman will be selected to fill a vacancy. Results . Women are significantly more likely to be selected to a state high court when initially appointed, and this effect is particularly pronounced when the governor is Democratic. When an appointment system is used, women are much more likely to be appointed to an all-male court than to a gender-diverse court. Conclusions . Appointment systems are more likely to create gender diversity on state courts; however, this effect operates primarily to diversify all-male courts. This difference between appointment and election systems may reflect differences in knowledge between elite actors and the mass public about the composition of the institution.     

Are Immigrants a Drain on the Public Fisc? State and Local Impacts in New Jersey

Objectives . To explore differences in the appointment and election method of selecting state high court justices in promoting gender diversity, and to explore the effect of existing gender diversity within the political institutions on the selection of women to office. Methods . Our data include all justices who have been selected to state courts of last resort from 1980 through 1997. We use logistic regression analysis to test the effect of existing gender diversity on a high court on the likelihood that a woman will be selected to fill a vacancy. Results . Women are significantly more likely to be selected to a state high court when initially appointed, and this effect is particularly pronounced when the governor is Democratic. When an appointment system is used, women are much more likely to be appointed to an all-male court than to a gender-diverse court. Conclusions . Appointment systems are more likely to create gender diversity on state courts; however, this effect operates primarily to diversify all-male courts. This difference between appointment and election systems may reflect differences in knowledge between elite actors and the mass public about the composition of the institution.     

Efficacy and Estrangement: Effects of Voting

This study examined changes in political efficacy and feelings of estrangement as a function of voting behavior in the 2008 presidential election in the U.S. Participants (n = 224), recruited from an online marketing company's representative panel of U.S. adults, completed a survey 4-6 weeks before the election and again 2-4 weeks after the election. Changes in internal and external political efficacy and feelings of estrangement were examined for three groups of voters (McCain voters, Obama voters, and non-voters) as well as by party affiliation. Internal political efficacy was and remained relatively high among Obama and McCain voters pre-election to post-election, but decreased for non-voters. Among Democrats, there was a significant increase in internal political efficacy, among Republicans, there was no change, and among those with no or a different party affiliation, there was a significant decrease. External political efficacy significantly increased pre-election to post-election among Obama voters and non-voters, but decreased for McCain voters. Additionally, post-election cultural estrangement was significantly higher among non-voters than voters. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical implications for understanding the potential impact of different forms of political participation. Several of the specific and distinctive aspects of the 2008 election and President Obama's campaign are also highlighted as they relate to voting behavior and potential changes in the American electorate.     

Ideological polarization in a decentralized party system: Explaining interstate differences

During the past decade scholars have noted growing ideological polarization between Democratic and Republican Party elites in the United States. This trend has occurred in a party system traditionally characterized as decentralized. This paper examines whether the trend towards partisan polarization noted by scholars at the national level has affected state party systems in similar ways. Are some state party systems more polarized than others? The paper uses a classification scheme of state party systems developed by David Mayhew to try to explain interstate differences in partisan polarization. The paper concludes that states with political environments that supported pragmatic and non-ideological traditional party organizations are less polarized in the modern era than states without such environments.     

Backing Barack Because He's Black: Racially Motivated Voting in the 2008 Election*

Objective. If racial considerations influenced the outcome of the 2008 presidential election, then how did they shape the campaign, why did race matter, and for whom were such considerations important? I hypothesize that various racial attitudes exert unique influences on voters' support of Obama and that the effects of these attitudes differ by race. Methods. Using a Time Magazine poll, I distinguish between “attitudes regarding Obama's ‘Blackness’” and “opinions about race relations,” and I examine such sentiments among White and African‐American respondents. Results. Regardless of race, Obama support was highest among voters who were “comfortable” with Black candidates. However, increased optimism with racial progress had no effect on Blacks' voting intentions, and it actually lowered Obama support among Whites. Conclusion. The conventional wisdom is that African Americans “backed Barack because he is Black”; I demonstrate that Obama's race mattered more to White voters than it did to Blacks.     

Yes We Did! Basking in Reflected Glory and Cutting Off Reflected Failure in the 2008 Presidential Election

In two studies, the tendency to Bask in Reflected Glory (BIRG) or Cut Off Reflected Failure (CORF) was examined in the context of the 2008 presidential election. Experiment 1, a field study, found that yard or window signs endorsing successful Democratic candidate Barack Obama were displayed longer than signs endorsing his opponent. Experiment 2 utilized a survey methodology to explore moderators of the BIRG effect implied by prior research. Self-esteem was shown to moderate CORF, such that individuals with lower self-esteem distanced themselves from the unsuccessful presidential candidate. Other moderators consistent with the cognitive consistency basis of BIRG, strength of identification and self-serving attributions, were not. Reasons for these findings are discussed, and future directions for research on BIRG are proposed.     

Fusion ballots as a candidate-centered reform: Evidence from Oregon

This article argues that fusion balloting, or the ability of multiple parties to nominate a single candidate for office, can be viewed as a candidate-centered and incumbent-oriented reform. Using the recent passage of fusion legislation in Oregon in 2009 and its subsequent use in 2010 state legislative elections as a test case, I study the factors behind supporting fusion legislation in both chambers of the state legislature and how these same factors affected, or did not affect, the incumbents that received cross-nominations in the 2010 elections. Overall, I find that party did not play a direct role in determining which legislators supported fusion, though female legislators were less supportive. When it came to obtaining nominations, the main finding is that incumbent candidates who voted yes to fusion were generally more likely to receive nominations. Still, legislators from the group that most opposed fusion, Democratic women, attempted to win cross-nominations once the 2010 elections approached. These findings suggest that candidate factors, more than party dictates, affected support for fusion and the ability of incumbents to receive cross-endorsements. Thus, the willingness of major-party candidates to adopt fusion can be understood through theories of candidate-centered elections and political parties.     

目的与效用：政体德性的两面——毛泽东民主集中制政体思想新探

民主集中制政体是毛泽东根据新民主主义共和国的国体确定的,其根本任务是建设几个革命阶级联合专政的共和国,实现共和国无支配自由的根本目的。新民主主义共和国的国体反映在民主集中制政体上,形成混合均衡的共和政体,因而共和是民主集中制政体的政治性质、核心理念和实践模式。本文认为,民主集中制是无支配自由与共和模式有机结合的德性实现;而两者的扭曲结合则造成民主集中制政体的蜕变,以致给共和国与人民带来无穷祸害和灾难。     

Implicit Race Attitudes Predicted Vote in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

In the week before the 2008 United States presidential election, 1,057 registered voters reported their choice between the principal contenders (John McCain and Barack Obama) and completed several measures that might predict their candidate preference, including two implicit and two self-report measures of racial preference for European Americans (Whites) relative to African Americans (Blacks) and measures of symbolic racism and political conservatism. Greater White preference on each of the four race attitude measures predicted intention to vote for McCain, the White candidate. The implicit race attitude measures (Implicit Association Test and Affect Misattribution Procedure) predicted vote choice independently of the self-report race attitude measures, and also independently of political conservatism and symbolic racism. These findings support construct validity of the implicit measures.     

Immigration in the 2008 Virginia presidential election: A cultural issue remains puissant despite an economic crisis

In 2006 and 2007, many analysts expected that immigration would be one of the top domestic issues in the 2008 campaign. However, in the 2008 presidential general election, immigration issues were never a major topic between candidates John McCain and Barack Obama. This was partially because McCain has more moderate views toward immigration reform than the passionate anti-immigration faction of the Republican Party. Prior research suggests that an issue in a presidential campaign can remain influential even when the media and campaigns are not discussing or addressing the issue, even when the candidates or parties do not differ greatly on the issue. In a survey of Virginia residents conducted just before the November election, immigration attitudes were a differential factor between McCain and Obama.     

Strategic voting in the 1984 democratic presidential primaries

When casting their ballots in primary elections, voters usually vote in a straight-forward manner for the candidate of their preference. But sometimes sophisticated voters vote for a second or third choice who has a better chance of winning in the general election or even cross over to the opposition party to vote for a candidate who will be easier to defeat in the general election. This article assesses the amount and importance of such strategic voting in Democratic presidential primaries in 1984 using discriminate analysis.     

Racism, Sexism, and Candidate Evaluations in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

In an attempt to understand the extent to which racism and sexism influenced affect toward Barack Obama and Sarah Palin, we analyze data from a national survey conducted in October 2008. Situating our investigation in previous examinations of modern racism and modern sexism, we test competing hypotheses about the role of these attitudes in the 2008 presidential election. Our results suggest that racism had a significant impact on candidate evaluations while sexism did not. We find that respondents who hold racist attitudes expressed negative attitudes toward Obama and positive attitudes toward Palin. When interacted with party identification, racism continued to exert a strong effect, indicating findings that are robust across partisan affiliations. Sexism, on the other hand, did not significantly influence evaluations of either Palin or Obama .     

Analysing the Welfare State in Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia: An Ideal-Typical Perspective

This article applies ideal-typical welfare state theory in analysing the recent transition and the current position of welfare state systems in Eastern Central Europe, taking the cases of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia. The article argues that Eastern Central European welfare state systems have returned to their historical and cultural roots of welfare state formation and development, to the time before the onset of state socialism in Soviet times. First, social security policies and social and labour laws were established when the vast bulk of Eastern Central European countries were member states of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, sharing the same political economy, legal system and culture. Over the last 20 years, the socialist system of employment-based social services and benefits has been replaced with Bismarckian-type social security policy and systems. While there are major alterations here and there – in ideal-typical perspective – the four countries under scrutiny share all the major traits of Continental European (Christian Democratic) welfare regimes .     

Interest group influence on the ideological orientations of local party activists

This paper uses a national survey of local Democratic and Republican Party officials to determine the extent to which interest group attempts to develop a formal organizational presence within the grassroots Democratic and Republican parties might push the parties towards taking more ideologically extreme positions. It is hypothesized that members of predominantly Democratic and Republican groups will be more ideologically extreme than other local party officials. The survey results provide support for the hypothesis. Group-influenced party activists tend to be more ideologically extreme than other party officials. However, while a large percentage of Democratic and Republican local party officials are members of interest groups, only a relatively small percentage reported being recruited to party activism through their group involvement. The survey provides little support for the thesis that interest groups have systematically tried to “take over” grassroots party organizations.     

Red states,blue states: How well do the recent national election labels capture state political and policy differences?

The alleged polarization between the so-called red (Republican) and blue (Democratic) states during the presidential elections has been examined using only voter surveys. Focusing on the recent thirteen national elections from 1964 to 2012, we examine social, political, institutional, and policy indicators of the 50 American states to (1) gauge the extent to which national election results reflect significant policy and political differences between the red and blue states and (2) to assess the explanatory power of the dichotomous red–blue label relative to a continuous variable of “redness” or “blueness” by the percentage of votes received. We find substantial political and some moderate social differences between red and blue states but fewer institutional and policy differences than one would expect if there were actually deep divisions between the states. We find that the red–blue state distinction performs well when compared to the explanatory power of the more precise redness or blueness of a state.     

Political Threat and Immigration: Party Identification,Demographic Context,and Immigration Policy Preference*

Objective. I propose that the effect of partisanship on views on immigration is context dependent. I argue that Republicans in counties experiencing high levels of immigration are more likely to support new immigration restrictions in contrast to Democrats and Independents than Republicans in counties with a relatively small foreign‐born population, and I suspect this is the case because Republicans in high‐immigration counties feel politically threatened by the foreign‐born residents, who are more likely to support Democratic candidates. Method. To test this theory, I create hierarchical logit models of views on immigration policy in which individual party identification interacts with the size of the local immigrant population. Individual‐level data were drawn from the 2004 National Annenberg Election Survey and county‐level contextual variables from the U.S. Census Bureau. Results. I find that the effect of partisanship on individual views on immigration is context dependent; native‐born Republicans are more likely to support immigration restrictions when their local community has a large immigrant population and Democrats less likely. Conclusion. In areas where immigration levels are low, partisanship is a weak predictor of immigration views. As the foreign‐born population increases, however, the views of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents increasingly diverge.