The Effects of Group Attitudes Toward Alternative GDSS Designs on the Decision-making Performance of Computer-Supported Groups*

Empirical investigations of the effects of group decision support systems (GDSS) accord relatively little attention to the role of attitudes developed by groups toward the GDSS. This study draws upon the theory of social influence to examine the role played by group attitudes in mediating the impact of GDSS designs on group decision-making performance. We found that, in addition to capabilities of GDSS designs, group attitudes toward GDSS were influential in affecting group decision-making performance. The managerial implications of the study are: (1) effective GDSS designs for supporting groups in equivocal decision-making contexts should include structures for communication and consensus support and (2) attempts should be made to enhance user attitudes toward the GDSS through design features of the GDSS, training, and facilitation of positive social influences within the group. The study also provides encouraging evidence about the value of social theories, such as the social influence model and the adaptive structuration theory, in investigating GDSS effects. Further, this study illustrates the value of the partial least squares (PLS) analysis method for testing holistic structural models of GDSS effects.     

基于层次模型法的互联网环境下的群体决策支持系统

技术的进步与发展为群体决策支持系统(GDSS)的研究与开发带来了机遇,但是若缺乏系统性、逻辑性的方法指导,GDSS的研究与开发将陷入仅仅是将众多技术混合在一起的状态,不利于系统的重构。本文在综述层次模型法的研究背景和研究思想基础上,从系统可重用、便于升级维护的角度出发,提出将互联网环境下GDSS概念结构分为应用层、任务层、功能层和物理层,并详细阐述任务层和功能层的特点和结构以及GDSS生成器的普遍模型的设计。     

UTILITY MODELS FOR MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISIONS: DO THEY ACCURATELY REPRESENT HUMAN PREFERENCES?*

Recent developments in multiattribute utility (MAU) theory in principle provide a formal basis for applying optimization methods to decision problems involving multiple competing objectives. In practice, MAU models and procedures are rarely applied. This paper is addressed to one major source of reluctance to employ these methods; namely, the belief that they cannot accurately reflect the structure of human preferences. This objection to MAU modeling procedures is inherently empirical. In fact, a large body of psychological research has been addressed to this question. This paper examines the relationship between formal MAU theory and the relevant psychological literature. A critical evaluation of this psychological research suggests that a variety of approaches to MAU modeling will typically yield valid mathematical representations of the preferences of individual decision makers.     

GDSS的基本决策网络模型

为构建 GDSS决策网络引入一个分析模型——决策网络图来研究任务环境和组织设计之间的交互作用 ,提出 GDSS的基本决策网络结构为级联式和二层多分支树型结构 ,借助概率影响图对该决策网络的优化问题进行了形式描述 ,并给出协同工作方式的分类和任务环境的分析步骤 .     

基于MA S 的群决策支持系统研究

群决策支持系统(GDSS) 与传统的决策支持系统(DSS) 在体系结构和工作方式上有着较 大的差异. 在网络环境中, 组织的决策需要一种开放的GDSS 体系结构和协作的工作方式. 本 文提出一种基于MA S 的GDSS 体系结构, 以及在这种体系结构下的协同决策的模型. 在此基 础上开发了一个GDSS 的原型系统, 并对今后的研究方向进行了展望.     

Exploring Risk Judgments in a Trade Dispute Using Bayesian Networks

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical modeling tools that are generally recommended for exploring what‐if scenarios, visualizing systems and problems, and for communication between stakeholders during decision making. In this article, we investigate their potential for exploring different perspectives in trade disputes. To do so, we draw on a specific case study that was arbitrated by the World Trade Organization (WTO): the Australia‐New Zealand apples dispute. The dispute centered on disagreement about judgments contained within Australia's 2006 import risk analysis (IRA). We built a range of BNs of increasing complexity that modeled various approaches to undertaking IRAs, from the basic qualitative and semi‐quantitative risk analyses routinely performed in government agencies, to the more complex quantitative simulation undertaken by Australia in the apples dispute. We found the BNs useful for exploring disagreements under uncertainty because they are probabilistic and transparently represent steps in the analysis. Different scenarios and evidence can easily be entered. Specifically, we explore the sensitivity of the risk output to different judgments (particularly volume of trade). Thus, we explore how BNs could usefully aid WTO dispute settlement. We conclude that BNs are preferable to basic qualitative and semi‐quantitative risk analyses because they offer an accessible interface and are mathematically sound. However, most current BN modeling tools are limited compared with complex simulations, as was used in the 2006 apples IRA. Although complex simulations may be more accurate, they are a black box for stakeholders. BNs have the potential to be a transparent aid to complex decision making, but they are currently computationally limited. Recent technological software developments are promising.     

基于交叉效率DEA与群体共识的区间乘性语言偏好关系群决策

针对区间乘性语言偏好关系群决策问题,提出了一种基于交叉效率DEA和群体共识的群决策方法。首先,提出乘性语言偏好关系导出函数的定义,并构建产出导向的DEA模型,证明了一致性乘性语言偏好关系的DEA效率得分与排序向量之间存在比例关系。在此基础上,建立基于理想值的交叉效率DEA模型,提出乘性语言偏好关系的通用排序方法。同时,基于群体共识建立目标规划模型来计算各语言偏好关系的权重系数。最后,利用Monte Carlo随机模拟的方法对群体语言偏好空间进行统计分析,得到群决策期望排序向量及其可信度。算例分析表明本文方法能够有效的避免信息损失,具有较强的适用性和较高的可信度。     

A framework for optimizing managerial decision

There have been numerous attempts to analyze and formulate management problems within the general framework of Management Science and Operations Research, so as to help managers in their decision making problems. This paper focuses on the fundamental aspects of management decision making and introduces a conceptual framework in which problems of management and its different levels of functioning are systematically identified. Management problems are considered within two major categories: Enterprise and Operations problems. In spite of the difficulties in defining a clear-cut boundary between Enterprise and Operations problems, such a broad classification leads to three basic levels of management functioning, namely: Policy making, coordinating and implementation. The universal relationship among these three basic levels of functioning provides a basic functional element called the Management Triad. In contrast to classical higherarchial structure, triad structure provides a methodology to analyze relationships among different levels of management functions in terms of a given decision problem. It is demonstrated that for different decision making problems individuals can shift from one end of the triad to another and perform a different management function.A quantitative approach has been introduced for operations management decision making by adapting Shewhart's control chart philosophy which in turn provides for quasi-automated decisions for corrective action and also for filtering significant signals of change to appropriate management functioning levels.     

Path to “Stardom” in Globally Distributed Hybrid Teams: An Examination of a Knowledge‐Centered Perspective using Social Network Analysis

Although distributed teams have been researched extensively in information systems and decision science disciplines, a review of the literature suggests that the dominant focus has been on understanding the factors affecting performance at the team level. There has however been an increasing recognition that specific individuals within such teams are often critical to the team's performance. Consequently, existing knowledge about such teams may be enhanced by examining the factors that affect the performance of individual team members. This study attempts to address this need by identifying individuals who emerge as “stars” in globally distributed teams involved in knowledge work such as information systems development (ISD). Specifically, the study takes a knowledge‐centered view in explaining which factors lead to “stardom” in such teams. Further, it adopts a social network approach consistent with the core principles of structural/relational analysis in developing and empirically validating the research model. Data from U.S.–Scandinavia self‐managed “hybrid” teams engaged in systems development were used to deductively test the proposed model. The overall study has several implications for group decision making: (i) the study focuses on stars within distributed teams, who play an important role in shaping group decision making, and emerge as a result of a negotiated/consensual decision making within egalitarian teams; (ii) an examination of emergent stars from the team members’ point of view reflects the collective acceptance and support dimension decision‐making contexts identified in prior literature; (iii) finally, the study suggests that the social network analysis technique using relational data can be a tool for a democratic decision‐making technique within groups.     

基于一致性度量的概率模糊语言多属性群决策方法

人们通常习惯用语言术语来表达他们的偏好,因此概率型语言术语集(Probabilistic Linguistic Term Set, PLTS)在决策过程中有着十分重要的作用。目前PLTS的研究刚刚起步,有关PLTS的相关研究没有关注到一致性度量的问题,对于PLTS的多属性群决策方法有待进一步研究。首先,给出了一种新的PLTS的集结方法,并且在已有的PLTS可能度公式的基础上,构建了PLTS的相似度量方法,在此基础上,进一步提出了基于PLTS一致性度量的多属性群决策方法。该方法在各决策者权重未知的情况下,考虑到各决策者之间的一致性。首先,定义PLTS的一致性度量公式,确定决策者权重;并根据PLTS的集结方法,集结各决策者的评价信息;最后,利用可能度公式对PLTS进行排序。通过案例分析验证了该方法的可行性和优越性。     

DECISION ANALYSIS THROUGH GOAL PROGRAMMING

In recent years, decision making based on systematic analysis has been greatly emphasized. Yet, decision analysis is often carried out without analyzing the limitations of certain quantitative techniques. This paper presents the concept, solution method, and application potential of goal programming which eliminates many limitations of conventional linear optimization models.     

An approach to consensus measurement of linguistic preference relations in multi-attribute group decision making and application

This paper studies the group decision making problem with linguistic preference relations. We first study the consensus measure between the individual preference relations and the collective (group) preference relation by defining the concept of degree of similarity between two linguistic values and two linguistic preference relations. Then we propose a concept of the acceptance consensus threshold value for group decision making with linguistic preference information. We show that the consensus between individual preference relations and the collective (group) preference relation is greater than the weighted similarity degree of a given individual preference relation with respect to other individual preference relations in group decision making with linguistic preference relations. The results will help in the analysis of crucial issues of conflict and agreement among preferences of decision-makers, which affect the consensus of group decision making with linguistic preference relations. Theoretical foundations are then established for the proposed method. Finally, the proposed method is applied to evaluate the degree of consensus of individual overall preference values with respect to the collective overall preference values for multi-attribute group decision making with linguistic information. The main contribution of this paper is twofold. One is to present a new way to measure the consensus between the individual preference relations and the collective (group) preference relation in group decision making with linguistic preference information. Another is to provide an effective approach to evaluating individual overall preference values with respect to the collective overall preference values in multi-attribute group decision making with linguistic information.     

Media Effects on Group Collaboration: An Empirical Examination in an Ethical Decision‐Making Context

Even though it is widely acknowledged that collaboration underlies much of the decision‐making efforts in contemporary organizations, and that organizational groups are increasingly making decisions that have ethical implications, few studies have examined group ethical decision‐making processes and outcomes. In addition, while there is increasing evidence that groups often collaborate/communicate using different mediating technologies, few studies have examined the effect of the characteristics of the media in group ethical decision‐making contexts. Finally, there is a clear paucity of studies that have investigated group decision making pertaining to information technology (IT)‐related ethical dilemmas, an area of rising importance for information systems (IS) and decision science researchers. This article seeks to address the gaps described above through an experimental study where groups collaborating either in a face‐to‐face context or in a computer‐mediated context (using NetMeeting or Wiki) were required to make a decision with respect to a scenario with an IT‐related ethical dilemma. Results indicate that media characteristics (e.g., anonymity, immediacy of feedback, parallelism) do not have an effect on whether groups make ethical (or unethical) decisions. However, several media characteristics were found to play a significant role on downstream variables, such as the quality of a follow‐up task (i.e., creation of a decision justification document), and overall process satisfaction of the group members.     

Can business learn from wargames?

The value of planning, particularly strategic planning, has long been recognized by both the military and business. Recently, the military has made significant contributions in the area of strategic decision making through the use of war games. Business managers may be able to expand their strategic decision-making judgment by employing the wargaming technology developed by the military. If the wargaming concept is embraced by business, it must serve, as it does in the military, as an aid to decision-making rather than as the decision itself.     

Real Options in Management and Organizational Strategy: A Review of Decision‐making and Performance Implications

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of real options theory in business strategy and organizational decision‐making. It analyses and critiques the decision‐making and performance implications of real options within the management theories of the (multinational) firm, reviews and categorizes the organizational, strategic and operational facets of real options management in large business settings. It also presents the views of scholars and practitioners regarding the incorporation and validity of real options in strategy, international management and business processes 1 . The focus is particularly on the decision‐making and performance attributes of the real options logic concerning strategic investments, governance modes and multinational operations management. These attributes are examined from both strategic and operating perspectives of decision‐making in organizations, also with an overview of the empirical evidence on real options decision‐making and performance.     

共识条件下最小最大妥协的直觉模糊数集结方法研究

直觉模糊集（IFS）理论是描述广泛模糊事物的重要工具。为减小决策过程中个体偏好值与群体偏好值的差异,协调个体与群体间矛盾,提升决策结果的执行效率,本文提出最小化最大妥协度（Minimize maximum compromise）的决策准则。给出直觉模糊环境下的,个体偏好值的集结算法及决策方法,并分别考虑了有无共识条件、有无决策主体权重的三类决策情景。最后给出算例,验证本文方法的有效性,结果表明,相较于I-IFOWG算子,本文方法能够有效降低群体决策中个体的妥协程度。     

Analysis of a complex decision situation — The Simpsons/Simpsons-Sears merger proposal

Many of the decision situations that arise in modern organizations are very complex. Conventional methods of decision analysis have only limited applicability in these situations. This paper describes a method that can be used as an aid to decision making in such situations where interactions between the parties involved are an important factor. The method is illustrated by reference to a recent situation in which there was competition between a number of participants with regard to the future of the firm of Simpsons Ltd of Toronto. The analysis described illustrates the application of a step-by-step procedure that can be used by participants in the analysis of such situations.     

基于三维密度算子的群体DEMATEL指标权重确定方法

针对现有DEMATEL指标权重确定方法大多基于个体决策,且未考虑群体决策评价标度不一致的情况,提出一种新的基于三维密度算子的群体DEMATEL指标权重确定方法。首先,定义了不同评价标度的转换函数,以此将群体DEMATEL矩阵进行一致化处理;其次,给出一种群体DEMATEL矩阵的聚类方法,在此基础上利用三维密度算子对其进行集结;最后,依据DEMATEL方法识别出指标的中心度和原因度,并计算各指标的权重。文末通过一个应用实例验证了所提方法的可行性与有效性。实例结果表明,该方法由于能够较好解决群体决策评价标度不一致的问题,还能够充分考虑群体决策的共识度,因此可使指标权重结果更为客观合理且更为可靠。     

Designing Efficient Infrastructural Investment and Asset Transfer Mechanisms in Humanitarian Supply Chains

We analyze the efficacy of different asset transfer mechanisms and provide policy recommendations for the design of humanitarian supply chains. As a part of their preparedness effort, humanitarian organizations often make decisions on resource investments ex ante because doing so allows for rapid response if an adverse event occurs. However, programs typically operate under funding constraints and donor earmarks with autonomous decision‐making authority resting with the local entities, which makes the design of efficient humanitarian supply chains a challenging problem. We formulate this problem in an agency setting with two independent aid programs, where different asset transfer mechanisms are considered and where investments in resources are of two types: primary resources that are needed for providing the aid and infrastructural investments that improve the operation of the aid program in using the primary resources. The primary resources are acquired from earmarked donations. We show that allowing aid programs the flexibility of transferring primary resources improves the efficiency of the system by yielding greater social welfare than when this flexibility does not exist. More importantly, we show that a central entity that can acquire primary resources from one program and sell them to the other program can further improve system efficiency by providing a mechanism that facilitates the transfer of primary resources and eliminates losses from gaming. This outcome is achieved without depriving the individual aid programs of their decision‐making autonomy while maintaining the constraints under which they operate. We find that outcomes with centralized resource transfer but decentralized infrastructural investments by the aid programs are the same as with a completely centralized system (where both resource transfer and infrastructural investments are centralized).