住房需求的经济学分析

随着我国工业化、城市化的持续加速和市场经济体制的初步建立,房地产业已成为我国发展市场经济的重要组成部分。伴随居民收入水平的提高,城市居民对商品住房的消费需求也日益增加。本文主要探讨市场经济中住房的消费需求及其变化。     

房价治理中的民生和谐诉求及善治回应

在新的历史条件下．“和谐”被赋予更为深刻、更为新鲜的内涵。改革开放以来．我国政府致力于经济建设．但这种单向度的发展引发了诸如收入差距扩大、贫富分化等一系列问题．这些问题给社会带来了诸多的不和谐．住房问题则集中体现了这些矛盾。近年来．住房问题已经成为人们常说的“三大民生”（住房、就学、医疗）问题之首。     

“人口红利”与福州住宅真实需求

"人口红利"是指从事经济活动的人口不断增加带来的高生产率与高储蓄率,从而形成较高的资本积累."人口红利"变化对住宅真实需求影响巨大.万科首席研究员谭华杰说过,看懂人口就看懂了房地产.要看懂人口最关键的是看懂"人口红利".     

Estimation of elderly housing demand in an Asian city: Methodological issues and policy implications

Projection of elderly housing demands and needs has always been complex because of the volatility and heterogeneity of the factors involved. This paper argues that in a society where the tradition of elderly parents co-habiting with the children's family is breaking up, the projection of elderly housing demands for planning and policy purposes may not be scientifically possible. This owes to the impossibility to gauge housing affordability of the elderly by conventional indicators and the lack of information on the market behaviour of the elderly alone. This paper suggests the analysis of pre-retirement income, housing arrangements and housing aspiration to help elderly housing service providers to make more informed decisions. However, the projection of housing needs is more plausible if the underlying demographic projection models take care of major demographic trends such as household sizes and types, and if surveys are carried out to gauge housing aspirations of contemporary elderly persons. By using the above methods, the paper projected the future elderly housing needs and demands of Hong Kong, and found that public rental housing was perceived as the most secure type of housing regardless of affordability. This preference may reflect anomalies in elderly policies, particularly the lack of housing choices to suit the varied needs and affordability.     

Sustainable housing applications and policies for low-income self-build and housing rehab

Recent years have seen an increased focus on the role of house construction and retrofitting within the broader agenda of sustainable development and climate change. To date this focus has largely targeted middle- and upper-income residential neighborhoods in urban areas. However, in the United States, and in middle developing countries such as Brazil and Mexico, there is growing recognition that urban sustainability will only gain traction if widespread applications are also incorporated into self-help and do-it-yourself housing construction and home improvements, especially those that address lower-income housing markets. Here we explore some of the potential ways in which contemporary sustainable housing applications may be integrated into the existing housing stock in low-income and informal settlements in the United States and in Latin America. We document the range of sustainable housing applications that are increasingly available in the U.S. as a baseline for discussion and evaluation of the potential application to lower-income segments of the housing market in both developed and developing countries. A heuristic model is presented to assess the extent to which policy makers, NGOs and low-income owner households may realistically participate in sustainable home building. Beyond physical development applications we close by emphasizing that sustainable housing agendas must adopt a holistic approach: one that embraces community and social organizational development, as well as fiscal and juridical policy dimensions.     

上海居民人口结构变迁对住房供需模式的影响研究

通过分析上海在城市化进程中人口结构的变化特征和趋势及其对上海住房需求的变化和影响,对未来5年上海居民住房供需情况作出预测。同时,在对上海现行住房供需体系及运作模式进行评价的基础上,结合世界城市住房发展模式的经验借鉴与启示,从控制人口总量、分散居住人口、增加和优化保障房、激励空置房出租等角度,提出上海住房供需管理模式的创新思路和结构体系。     

对天津市住宅交易情况的剖析与展望

在全国房地产市场不断走弱的大背景下．本文从天津市2006年-2008年住宅交易的情况,分析天津市住宅交易的特点。     

Perceived risk and the precautionary demand for money

Keynes contended that individuals hold money for fear of being unable to meet unforeseen future cash requirements. This ‘precautionary demand’ for money has long been an accepted part of monetary theory, but has played a subservient role because of our inability to measure an individual's degree of aversion to risk. This study, however, employs a risk taking scale, similar to that developed by Zuckerman, to empirically investigate Keynes's precautionary demand for money. The results are sufficiently encouraging to suggest that this scale might successfully be applied to other economics subfields in which risk plays a role.     

Purchase expectations and the demand for consumer durables

This article reviews the use of buying intentions anil purchase expectations data in consumer surveys and forecasts of the likely level of consumer demand. It notes the decline in their use and the disappointing experience where attempts have been made to use such information in time series forecasts. The stronger cross-sectional predictive performance is discussed and it is argued that this is of relevance to researchers and forecasters. Suggestions are made as to ways in which purchase expectations data might he more effectively collected and used in future.     

Ambiguities and contradictions in the provision of sheltered housing for older people

This paper examines the current model of sheltered housing and explores a central contradiction in that model: namely that if only those people who most need and appreciate the unique features of sheltered housing were allocated places in schemes, the existing model ultimately could not provide sufficient support. This central contradiction leads to a fundamental lack of clarity in the role of sheltered housing. This is reflected in the ambiguities apparent in allocation practices, where judgements are typically made not only in relation to the tenants' needs and demands but also in relation to the impact on schemes. Evidence is presented from a recent study of sheltered and amenity housing in Scotland, which exposes these issues and suggestions are made as to how the traditional model of sheltered housing can be made more flexible and more suited to those who need and value it most.     

Public housing agency preferences for the homeless as a policy lever: Examining county-level housing subsidy receipt and maltreatment rates

This study examines the relationship between county Public Housing Agency (PHA) practices that prioritize families experiencing homelessness and county-level child maltreatment rates. Using data from a survey of PHAs and the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) with a sample of 534 counties, we find that policies which give preference to homeless households for housing assistance are associated with reduced victimization and substantiation rates, while policies that reduce barriers to assistance eligibility are associated with reporting rates. Our findings suggest that beyond prioritizing homeless families for housing assistance as a means of ending homelessness, providing families with more expedient access to a valuable public subsidy may have important positive externalities, such as reduced CPS involvement. Additional partnerships between child welfare agencies and housing providers, particularly those that provide housing subsidies, may be worthy of additional investment and evaluation.     

Current supply and demand for neopopulism in Latin America

The emergence of neopopulism in several countries in Latin America has been described by political science literature as the success of a political strategy in which a leader, generally bearing a strong personality and charismatic appeal, seeks popular support in an almost direct form, and overshadows political parties, the external mechanisms of control which define a democratic regime (Roberts 1996, 2003, 2006, Weyland 1999a, 1999b, Knight 1998, Connif 1999). This article adopts this definition of the concept and argues that the success of this strategy can be analyzed as a relation between supply and demand for populism. The supply refers to the political process which allows leaders to make use of features such as charisma and anti-political and polarizing speech to obtain the support of the public based on their non-programmatic and personal qualities. The demand is defined as the presence of certain preferences within the public, which increase the chance of success of the neopopulist strategy adopted by the leaders. Amidst that relationship, we can place fragile intermediate institutions, mainly the political parties, which would limit themselves to working as vehicles centered on the figure of the leader in order to allow his success among voters. Before going any deeper into the arguments regarding the relationship between supply and demand for neopopulism, the next item will discuss the concept of populism in its more contemporary form.     

Population growth and housing in Nigeria

The author describes the growing housing problem in Nigeria and the effect of the country's rapid rate of population growth on housing needs. Data are from official sources.