群体决策研讨意见分布可视化研究——电子公共大脑视听室(ECBAR)的设计与实现

分析了在决策群体综合集成研讨过程中,界定研讨信息属性、定义信息结构及其关系、探索新的群体研讨信息可视化技术的必要性.设计了一种适应群体动态交流过程的信息组织和可视化显示模式,将群体研讨中的发言按其语义关系分为支持、反对、质疑、补充和相关五种;把研讨信息按照研讨过程组织成以认知图为基础的“研讨网络“,设计并实现了基于WEB和JAVA技术的群体研讨信息可视化支持平台(电子公共大脑视听室,ECBAR),并通过实验分析了应用效果.     

群体决策中多种研讨信息关系的自动识别方法

决策是管理的核心,决策贯穿管理的全过程.群体决策中会产生海量的研讨信息,研讨信息与决策方案之间存在多种关系.论文研究了群体决策中多种研讨信息关系的自动识别方法,构建了多种研讨信息关系自动识别模型,并应用于实际的群体决策过程.应用结果表明,该模型较好地实现了研讨信息与决策方案之间强烈支持、一般支持、中立、一般反对和强烈反对关系的自动识别,可以辅助人对群体研讨信息的整理和分析,提高了群体决策过程信息组织的效率.     

群体研讨支持系统中的智能可视化研究

时间和共识是群体研讨的两个重要因素.提出一种共识评价、分析及预测智能可视化技术.在界定研讨信息属性、定义信息结构及其关系的基础上,按照语义关系,提出共识点、分歧点和争议点的概念,结合共识水平及共识状态、关注水平及关注状态、共识水平变化趋势、关注水平变化趋势四个指标,建立智能可视化模型,并用Java和XML技术设计并实现了基于Web的共识评价、预测及分析智能可视化.以一个实例给出了以人-机结合的系统思想为指导的共识评价和预测方法以及通过共识分析,形成群体注意力聚焦的示范应用.最后用实验的方法分析了智能可视化的应用效果.     

支持模糊型任务的信息组织结构设计研究

模糊型任务虽然在组织中广泛存在,但是在线研讨环境下支持模糊型任务的信息组织结构研究还很少.从任务—技术匹配的角度分析,发现模糊型任务不能被现有的线性或树状信息组织结构有效支持,因此研究提出一种新型线性+树状信息组织结构.这种新型结构能够在沟通、协调组织和信息处理3个维度上提供高水平的支持,从而满足模糊型任务的需求.设计了实验来检验线性+树状结构的有效性.实验结果表明,对于模糊型任务,采用线性+树状结构的研讨平台比采用线性结构或树状结构的研讨平台具有更高的决策效率,更好的决策效果和更高的决策过程满意度.     

欧氏平面上的占线中位选址问题分析

虽然在线研讨平台已经广泛应用并受到学术界的大量关注,它的信息组织结构却还是停留在非常原始的阶段。关于哪一类信息组织结构更适合在线研讨的研究一直很少,仅有的一些研究也很零散,并且研究结果难以统一,因此就非常迫切需要可以系统化解释在线群体研讨中最优信息组织结构的理论。文章从任务—技术匹配的观点出发,从沟通、协调组织和信息处理3个维度阐述了任务和信息组织结构之间的匹配关系,并将其用于预测不同任务—技术匹配环境下的研讨绩效。设计了实验来验证这种匹配关系与研讨绩效之间的关系。实验结果表明,对主意产生型任务,采用线性结构的研讨平台比采用树状结构的研讨平台具有更高的研讨绩效;对于决策型任务,采用树状结构的研讨平台比采用线性结构的研讨平台具有更高的研讨绩效。所展示的匹配分析的理论和方法具有一定的扩展性,当有新类型任务到来或新技术被发明时,就可以用这种方法去分析新任务和新技术的匹配性,进而预测群体的绩效。     

对偶刻度法及其在群体研讨中应用

群体研讨中对参与成员意见的有效综合能够为人们深入分析研讨进程、理解并合理使用相关结果提供帮助。本文介绍一种处理定性数据的多元统计方法——对偶刻度法,结合它在群体研讨中的具体应用。描述其对专家发言(定性数据)的实时分析和处理(算法)、可视化显示(结果)等。     

一种支持协作与知识创造的“场”

21世纪知识的共享与创造已成为促进企业发展的第一生产力.在群体活动过程中,良好的协作技术是保证知识创造有效进行的先决条件.基于我国著名系统科学家钱学森提出的"从定性到定量综合集成"思想,即"大胆假设,小心求证",研究开发了支持群思考的计算机工具--群研讨环境(group argumentation environment, GAE),它支持群体研讨,群体知识创造,发散和收敛思考相结合等群体活动,期望成为协作和知识创造两者有机结合的"场".     

基于本体系统的知识管理人工智能研究

分析了知识管理中的信息组织难题和群体过程非结构化特性的本质意义. 介绍了用于解 决人工智能中非结构化问题的本体系统方法. 并通过支持群体交互知识管理的电子公共大脑 本体系统设计的案例,对本体系统方法的概念、构成和应用方法作了具有典型意义的示例性 介绍.     

基于改进型共引聚类的技术跟踪二维可视化研究

通过技术跟踪,可以了解某一技术领域的现状和发展态势,为技术战略的制定提供决策信息支持.当前,基于共引聚类分析的技术跟踪研究获得了长足的发展,但仍然存在一些问题,主要表现在数据关联的计算和聚类效率的提升上.基于此,文章从构建共引关联模型,改进系统聚类算法二个方面对共引聚类进行改进,并根据改进的共引聚类方法设计了基于多维标度模型的技术跟踪二维可视化工具.在此基础上,以公路工程领域为例,从个人、机构层面进行可视化实验,并着重对中国在此领域的技术情况进行详细的分析,以此判别技术领域的深层次结构,为技术跟踪的相关研究做一些支撑性工作.     

互联网群体智能的涌现

从互联网的实际情况出发,对综合集成研讨厅体系做了相应改进,除了强调专家群体的认知外,还加进了公众以及政府群体的认知.首先,用定性的方法从开放复杂的互联网系统中获取不同群体的认知关键词及其响应关系.然后,通过对链接结构分析方法中的PageRank算法和HITS算法进行比较分析,最终确定用改进的HITS算法来寻找和分析各群体的关注重点及群体间的互动关系.研究结果表明,在互联网上,人们通过不同形式的言论来反映自己的观点和见解,并通过发表支持或反对意见来影响其他人,从而使人的经验知识通过这种交互行为汇聚并涌现出来,从而产生群体智能.     

一种新型不确定AHP的研究与应用

针对现有AHP方法在某些决策环境下不能准确反映决策者的偏好,以及群决策背景下专家偏好集结的信息丢失等问题,研究元素服从离散分布的一种新型不确定AHP,将未确知数概念引入到AHP之中,用局部一致性和整体一致性思想检验未确知数判断矩阵,并根据未确知数判断矩阵的特点,提出基于未确知数运算法则和蒙特卡罗模拟的两种权重求解方法,最后通过两个例子说明新方法的应用可行性.     

The Impact of a Structured-Argument Approach on Group Problem Formulation*

Despite advances in decision analysis and decision support systems, few formulaic procedures exist for undertaking problem formulation, particularly in group settings. This leaves managers with little procedural support for the important task of carefully structuring problems. In a laboratory experiment of 29 intact student teams, we contrasted two problem formulation methodologies: a structured argument approach (based on application of formal reasoning) and a group process approach (based on private idea generation prior to public sharing and evaluation of ideas). The structured argument approach took more time to use and failed to bring about more information search and equivocality reduction in group discussions. On the positive side, however, the structured argument approach led to a greater combination of both coverage of critical issues and consensus on those issues. Use of the structured argument approach also resulted in higher satisfaction with the problem definition and commitment to implementing results of the group meeting. Overall, the results reveal cost/benefit tradeoffs associated with developing argumentation-based procedures for problem formulation.     

面向评价局部环境的群评价长效机制分析

在群组评价问题中,称评价参与者(即节点集)及参与者之间的评价关系构成群组评价局部环境,即评价群体的网络结构。将评价局部环境看作是一个有限状态、不可约且非周期性马尔可夫过程,使得群组评价问题水平维度的评价局部环境基于时间维度进行拓展,证明参与者对评价关系的调整可以改善群体网络结构的稳定性;具有评价关系的参与者状态正相关;参与者不满意效用状态持续时间的增加降低了其达到满意效用状态的概率。在此基础上,讨论以被评价对象为主要研究对象设置群组评价方法,根据三种常见的评价局部环境状态,考察评价群体的群体性行为或认知趋势性特征,在此基础上讨论评价目标的可执行性。允许有关被评价对象的新信息注入群组评价系统,在长期分析评价群体的群体性评价行为的趋势特征,据此构建面向评价局部环境的群组评价方法,分析评价目标的可执行性,以期使群组评价行为具有稳定性和可预见性。     

New Uses of Outcomes Measures Under Austerity: the Case of Danish Municipalities

This article argues that the use of performance information may change according to economic circumstances. In a fiscal crisis, policy-makers likely demand less documentation of service quality, but under longer-term term austerity they can use performance information, including outcomes measures, to target and reallocate scarce resources across organizational boundaries. The argument is tested in an analysis of six Danish municipalities after the financial crisis. In these cases, performance information was used in new ways. For instance, outcomes measures were linked to overall strategies and used in the budgeting process to promote the reallocation of resources towards more effective services.     

Trust in Islamic Business-to-Business Relationships: Evidence from Indonesia

We examine the role of trust within Islamic culture in business-to-business relationships by exploring the link between credit officers’ trust in business customers and their financing decisions. In line with our framework, which is based on the fact that Islamic culture is characterized by a collectivistic approach and clan-based social structure, we find that value-based trust is more important than competence-based trust in explaining business relationships. The results support the argument that Islamic culture business relationships are grounded more on the principles, values and norms that a partner brings to the relationship than on business skills. Our results are robust to endogeneity and multilevel issues.     

基于模糊判断矩阵的群决策方法研究

对多个决策者给出的偏好信息的有效集结是群决策过程的重要问题之一.不同类型的偏好信息有不同的集结方法.基于模糊判断矩阵一致性的定义,提出一种加权集结方法的最优化模型,从而得到群决策中一类模糊判断矩阵的集结方法,并进一步分析和研究群组判断矩阵与各决策者给出的判断矩阵之间关系的一些重要性质.     

Private Information and Insurance Rejections

Across a wide set of nongroup insurance markets, applicants are rejected based on observable, often high‐risk, characteristics. This paper argues that private information, held by the potential applicant pool, explains rejections. I formulate this argument by developing and testing a model in which agents may have private information about their risk. I first derive a new no‐trade result that theoretically explains how private information could cause rejections. I then develop a new empirical methodology to test whether this no‐trade condition can explain rejections. The methodology uses subjective probability elicitations as noisy measures of agents' beliefs. I apply this approach to three nongroup markets: long‐term care, disability, and life insurance. Consistent with the predictions of the theory, in all three settings I find significant amounts of private information held by those who would be rejected; I find generally more private information for those who would be rejected relative to those who can purchase insurance, and I show it is enough private information to explain a complete absence of trade for those who would be rejected. The results suggest that private information prevents the existence of large segments of these three major insurance markets.     

Analysis of Managerial Experience: Integrating Career Analysis with Labour Market Dynamics

The article argues that there is a need for a greater emphasis on information relating to the quality of labour supply, particularly the nature of managerial experience. The rationale is based on the organizational and industry changes which alter patterns of experience and create new forms of human capital. At the heart of the argument is the valuation of stable labour market dynamics, that is, patterns which remain constant. This is contrasted with the ethos of change which, it is suggested, contains a dangerous element of exaggeration. An attempt is made to integrate qualitative career analysis with new forms of labour market analysis. Two models of learning by experience are introduced and examples of relevant techniques of measurement are described.