Rational choice and economic behavior

This paper discusses several concepts that can be used to provide a foundation for a unified, theory of rational, economic behavior. First, decision-making is defined to be a process that takes place with reference to both subjective and objective time, that distinguishes between plans and actions, between information and states and that explicitly incorporates the collection and processing of information. This conception of decision making is then related to several important aspects of behavioral economics, the dependence of values on experience, the use of behavioral rules, the occurrence of multiple goals and environmental feedback.Our conclusions are (1) the non-transitivity of observed or revealed preferences is a characteristic of learning and hence is to be expected of rational decision-makers; (2) the learning of values through experience suggests the sensibleness of short time horizons and the making of choices according to flexible utility; (3) certain rules of thumb used to allow for risk are closely related to principles of Safety-First and can also be based directly on the hypothesis that the feeling of risk (the probability of disaster) is identified with extreme departures from recently executed decisions. (4) The maximization of a hierarchy of goals, or of a lexicographical utility function, is closely related to the search for feasibility and the practice of satisficing. (5) When the dim perception of environmental feedback and the effect of learning on values are acknowledged the intertemporal optimality of planned decision trajectories is seen to be a characteristic of subjective not objective time. This explains why decision making is so often best characterized by rolling plans. In short, we find that economic man - like any other - is an existential being whose plans are based on hopes and fears and whose every act involves a leap of faith.This paper is based on a talk presented at the Conference, New Beginnings in Economics, Akron, Ohio, March 15, 1969. Work on this paper was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation.     

Simulation methodology

Operational researchers, management scientists, and industrial engineers have been asked by Russell Ackoff to become systems scientists, yet he stated that Systems Science is not a science. (TIMS Interfaces, 2 (4), 41). A. C. Fabergé (Science 184, 1330) notes that the original intent of operational researchers was that they be scientists, trained to observe. Hugh J. Miser (Operations Research 22, 903), views operations research as a science, noting that its progress indeed is of a cyclic nature.The present paper delineates explicitly the attributes of simulation methodology. Simulation is shown to be both an art and a science; its methodology, properly used, is founded both on confirmed (validated) observation and scrutinised (verified) art work.The paper delineates the existing procedures by which computer-directed models can be cyclically scrutinised and confirmed and therefore deemed credible. The complexities of the phenomena observed by social scientists are amenable to human understanding by properly applied simulation; the methodology of the scientist of systems (the systemic scientist).

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Résumé Russell Ackoff propose à ceux qui s'occupent de recherches opérationnelle, industrielle, et de gestion, d'agir en systems scientists, et pourtant il affirme que systems science n'est pas une science (TIMS Interfaces 2 (4), 41). A. C. Fabergé (Science 184, 1330) remarque, qu'à l'origine, le but de ceux qui s'occupaient de recherche opérationnelle était d'agir en hommes de science instruits à observer. Hugh J. Miser (Operational Research 22, 903) considère la recherche opérationnelle comme science, notant que ses progrès sont en effet de nature cyclique.La présente étude délimite explicitement les attributs de la méthode de la simulation. Il est démontré que la simulation est à la fois un art et une science; sa méthode, lorsqu'utilisée correctement, repose sur l'observation validée et le modèle vérifié.L'étude délimite les moyens actuels dont nous disposons pour vérifier et valider cycliquement les modèles bâtis à l'aide d'ordinateurs, établissant ainsi leur crédibilité. La nature complexe des phénomènes étudiés par les sciences sociales peut être comprise à l'aide de la simulation: la méthode dont se servent les hommes de science qui étudient les systèmes (les scientistes systémiques).

     

On the foundations of mean-variance analyses

Let (, ) and (, ) be mean-standard deviation pairs of two probability distributions on the real line. Mean-variance analyses presume that the preferred distribution depends solely on these pairs, with primary preference given to larger mean and smaller variance. This presumption, in conjunction with the assumption that one distribution is better than a second distribution if the mass of the first is completely to the right of the mass of the second, implies that (, ) is preferred to (, ) if and only if either > or ( = and < ), provided that the set of distributions is sufficiently rich. The latter provision fails if the outcomes of all distributions lie in a finite interval, but then it is still possible to arrive at more liberal dominance conclusions between (, ) and (, ).This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research.     

Independent social choice correspondences

A fixed agenda social choice correspondence on outcome set X maps each profile of individual preferences into a nonempty subset of X. If satisfies an analogue of Arrow's independence of irrelevant alternatives condition, then either the range of contains exactly two alternatives, or else there is at most one individual whose preferences have any bearing on . This is the case even if is not defined for any proper subset of X.     

Implications of behavioral consistency in dynamic choice under uncertainty

This paper considers two fundamental aspects of the analysis of dynamic choices under risk: the issue of the dynamic consistency of the strategies of a non EU maximizer, and the issue that an individual whose preferences are nonlinear in probabilities may choose a strategy which is in some appropriate sense dominated by other strategies. A proposed way of dealing with these problems, due to Karni and Safra and called behavioral consistency, is described. The implications of this notion of behavioral consistency are explored, and it is shown that while the Karni and Safra approach obtains dynamically consistent behavior under nonlinear preferences, it may imply the choice of dominated strategies even in very simple decision trees.     

Utility theory and the Bayesian paradigm

In this paper, a problem for utility theory - that it would have an agent who was compelled to play Russian Roulette with one revolver or another, to pay as much to have a six-shooter with four bullets relieved of one bullet before playing with it, as he would be willing to pay to have a six-shooter with two bullets emptied - is reviewed. A less demanding Bayesian theory is described, that would have an agent maximize expected values of possible total consequence of his actions. And utility theory is located within that theory as valid for agents who satisfy certain formal conditions, that is, for agents who are, in terms of that more general theory, indifferent to certain dimensions of risk. Raiffa- and Savage-style arguments for its more general validity are then resisted. Addenda are concerned with implications for game theory, and relations between utilities and values.     

Fairness,Public Good,and Emotional Aspects of Punishment Behavior

We report an experiment on two treatments of an ultimatum minigame. In one treatment, responders reactions are hidden to proposers. We observe high rejection rates reflecting responders intrinsic resistance to unfairness. In the second treatment, proposers are informed, allowing for dynamic effects over eight rounds of play. The higher rejection rates can be attributed to responders provision of a public good: Punishment creates a group reputation for being tough and effectively educate proposers. Since rejection rates with informed proposers drop to the level of the treatment with non-informed proposers, the hypothesis of responders enjoyment of overt punishment is not supported.     

Combinatorial versus decision-theoretic components of impossibility theorems

We separate the purely combinatorial component of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem in the theory of collective preference from its decision-theoretic part, and likewise for the closely related result of Blair/Bordes/Kelly/Suzumura. Such a separation provides a particularly elegant proof of the former, via a new splitting theorem.     

The general relevance of the impossibility teorem in smooth social choice

A complete classification theorem for voting processes on a smooth choice spaceW of dimensionw is presented. Any voting process is classified by two integersv ^* () andw(), in terms of the existence or otherwise of the optima set, IO(), and the cycle set IC().In dimension belowv ^* () the cycle set is always empty, and in dimension abovew() the optima set is nearly always empty while the cycle set is open dense and path con nected. In the latter case agenda manipulation results in any outcome.For admissible (compact, convex) choice spaces, the two sets are related by the general equilibrium result that IO() union IC() is non-empty. This in turn implies existence of optima in low dimensions. The equilibrium theorem is used to examine voting games with an infinite electorate, and the nature ofstructure induced equilibria, induced by jurisdictional restrictions.This material is based on work supported by a Nuffield Foundation grant.     

Testing Descriptive Utility Theories: Violations of Stochastic Dominance and Cumulative Independence

Choices between gambles show systematic violations of stochastic dominance. For example, most people choose ($6, .05; $91, .03; $99, .92) over ($6, .02; $8, .03; $99, .95), violating dominance. Choices also violate two cumulative independence conditions: (1) If S = (z, r; x, p; y, q) R = (z, r; x, p; y, q) then S = (x, r; y, p + q) R = (x, r + p; y, q). (2) If S = (x, p; y, q; z, r) R = (x, p; y, q; z, r) then S = (x, p + q; y, r) R = (x, p; y, q + r), where 0 < z < x < x < y < y < y < z.Violations contradict any utility theory satisfying transivity, outcome monotonicity, coalescing, and comonotonic independence. Because rank-and sign-dependent utility theories, including cumulative prospect theory (CPT), satisfy these properties, they cannot explain these results.However, the configural weight model of Birnbaum and McIntosh (1996) predicted the observed violations of stochastic dominance, cumulative independence, and branch independence. This model assumes the utility of a gamble is a weighted average of outcomes\' utilities, where each configural weight is a function of the rank order of the outcome\'s value among distinct values and that outcome\'s probability. The configural weight, TAX model with the same number of parameters as CPT fit the data of most individuals better than the model of CPT.     

Constructs and empirical basis in theories of economic behavior

Theories of economic behavior often use as-if-languages: for example, analytical sentences or definitions are used as if they were synthetic and factual-normative theoretical constructs are used as if they were empirical concepts. Such as-if-languages impede the acquisition of knowledge and are apt to encourage the wrong assessment of actual research strategies. The author's criticism is first leveled at revealed-preference theory. In this theory observed behavior is often understood in an empirical sense although it is a pure theoretical construct. Another example can be found in von Mises' representations on marketing behavior: here theoretical valuations are used to achieve a spurious streamlining of reality. Result: Scientists should not ogle with reality if they have nothing to say about it.     

Hopes and Fears: the Conflicting Effects of Risk Ambiguity

The Ellsberg Paradox documented the aversion to ambiguity in the probability of winning a prize. Using an original sample of 266 business owners and managers facing risks from climate change, this paper documents the presence of departures from rationality in both directions. Both ambiguity-seeking behavior and ambiguity-averse behavior are evident. People exhibit fear effects of ambiguity for small probabilities of suffering a loss and hope effects for large probabilities. Estimates of the crossover point from ambiguity aversion (fear) to ambiguity seeking (hope) place this value between 0.3 and 0.7 for the risk per decade lotteries considered, with empirical estimates indicating a crossover mean risk of about 0.5. Attitudes toward the degree of ambiguity also reverse at the crossover point.     

Far-sighted equilibria in 2 × 2, non-cooperative,repeated games

Consider a two-person simultaneous-move game in strategic form. Suppose this game is played over and over at discrete points in time. Suppose, furthermore, that communication is not possible, but nevertheless we observe some regularity in the sequence of outcomes. The aim of this paper is to provide an explanation for the question why such regularity might persist for many (i.e., infinite) periods.Each player, when contemplating a deviation, considers a sequential-move game, roughly speaking of the following form: if I change my strategy this period, then in the next my opponent will take his strategy b and afterwards I can switch to my strategy a, but then I am worse off since at that outcome my opponent has no incentive to change anymore, whatever I do. Theoretically, however, there is no end to such reaction chains. In case that deviating by some player gives him less utility in the long run than before deviation, we say that the original regular sequence of outcomes is far-sighted stable for that player. It is a far-sighted equilibrium if it is far-sighted stable for both players.     

A strategic foundation for the cooperator's advantage

Orbell and Dawes develop a non-game theoretic heuristic that yields a cooperator's advantage by allowing players to project their own cooperate-defect choices onto potential partners (1991, p. 515). With appropriate parameter values their heuristic yields a cooperative environment, but the cooperation depends, simply, on optimism about others' behavior (1991, p. 526). In earlier work, Dawes (1989) established a statistical foundation for such optimism. In this paper, I adapt some of the concerns of Dawes (1989) and develop a game theoretic model based on a modification of the Harsanyi structure of games with incomplete information (1967–1968). I show that the commonly made conjecture that strategic play is incompatible with cooperation and the cooperator's advantage is false.     

Predictive superiority of the beta-characteristic function in cooperative non-sidepayment N-person games

This article reports an experimental study of decision-making outcomes in cooperative non-sidepayment games. The objective of this test was to determine which characteristic function, V (S) or V (S), provides the most accurate basis for payoff predictions from solution concepts. The experiment tested three solution concepts (core, stable set, imputation set) in the context of 5-person, 2-strategy non-sidepayment games. Predictions from each of the three solution concepts were computed on the basis of both V (S) and V (S), making a total of six predictive theories under test. Consistent with earlier studies (Michener et al., 1984a; Michener et al., 1985), two basic findings emerged. First, the data show that for each of the solutions tested, the prediction from any solution concept computed from V(S) was more accurate than the prediction from the same solution concept computed from V (S). Second, the -core was the most accurate of the six theories tested. Overall, these results support the view that V (S) is superior to V (S) as a basis for payoff predictions in cooperative non-sidepayment games.     

Rational preference: Decision theory as a theory of practical rationality

In general, the technical apparatus of decision theory is well developed. It has loads of theorems, and they can be proved from axioms. Many of the theorems are interesting, and useful both from a philosophical and a practical perspective. But decision theory does not have a well agreed upon interpretation. Its technical terms, in particular, utility and preference do not have a single clear and uncontroversial meaning.How to interpret these terms depends, of course, on what purposes in pursuit of which one wants to put decision theory to use. One might want to use it as a model of economic decision-making, in order to predict the behavior of corporations or of the stock market. In that case, it might be useful to interpret the technical term utility as meaning money profit. Decision theory would then be an empirical theory. I want to look into the question of what utility could mean, if we want decision theory to function as a theory of practical rationality. I want to know whether it makes good sense to think of practical rationality as fully or even partly accounted for by decision theory. I shall lay my cards on the table: I hope it does make good sense to think of it that way. For, I think, if Humeans are right about practical rationality, then decision theory must play a very large part in their account. And I think Humeanism has very strong attractions.     

Rush and Procrastination Under Hyperbolic Discounting and Interdependent Activities

We analyze the decision of individuals with time-inconsistent preferences to invest in projects yielding either current costs and future benefits or current benefits and future costs. We show that competition between agents for the same project mitigates the tendency to procrastinate on the first type of activities (i.e. to undertake them too late) and to rush on the second one (i.e. to undertake them too early). Competition can therefore increase the expected welfare of each individual. On the contrary, complementarity of projects exacerbates the tendency to rush and to procrastinate and therefore it can decrease the expected welfare of each individual.     

Correlated strategies as Institutions

Two institutions that are often implicit or overlooked in noncooperative games are the assumption of Nash behavior to solve a game, and the ability to correlate strategies. We consider two behavioral paradoxes; one in which maximin behavior rules out all Nash equilibria (Chicken), and another in which minimax supergame behavior leads to an inefficient outcome in comparison to the unique stage game equilibrium (asymmetric Deadlock). Nash outcomes are achieved in both paradoxes by allowing for correlated strategies, even when individual behavior remains minimax or maximin. However, the interpretation of correlation as a public institution differs for each case.     

A Comparison of Some Distance-Based Choice Rules in Ranking Environments

We discuss the relationships between positional rules (such as plurality and approval voting as well as the Borda count), Dodgsons, Kemenys and Litvaks methods of reaching consensus. The discrepancies between methods are seen as results of different intuitive conceptions of consensus goal states and ways of measuring distances therefrom. Saaris geometric methodology is resorted to in the analysis of the consensus reaching methods.     

Experiments with cooperative 2 × 2 games

Nash's solution of a two-person cooperative game prescribes a coordinated mixed strategy solution involving Pareto-optimal outcomes of the game. Testing this normative solution experimentally presents problems in as much as rather detailed explanations must be given to the subjects of the meaning of threat strategy, strategy mixture, expected payoff, etc. To the extent that it is desired to test the solution using naive subjects, the problem arises of imparting to them a minimal level of understanding about the issue involved in the game without actually suggesting the solution.Experiments were performed to test the properties of the solution of a cooperative two-person game as these are embodied in three of Nash's four axioms: Symmetry, Pareto-optimality, and Invariance with respect to positive linear transformations. Of these, the last was definitely discorroborated, suggesting that interpersonal comparison of utilities plays an important part in the negotiations.Some evidence was also found for a conjecture generated by previous experiments, namely that an externally imposed threat (penalty for non-cooperation) tends to bring the players closer together than the threats generated by the subjects themselves in the process of negotiation.