Analysis of quick-serve,mid-scale,and up-scale food away from home expenditures

U.S. households spend nearly one-half of their food budget for food away from home (FAFH) with an increasing share for fastfood facilities. These trends can impact the structure of the food distribution industry, nutritional intake of U.S. households, and demand for goods at the farm level. This analysis investigates the effects of socioeconomic and demographic variables, both on the decision to consume FAFH by facility and on the decision of how much to spend on FAFH by facility. Based on National Panel Diary data, three facility types are considered: quick-serve, mid-scale, and up-scale.     

Forty Years of Food Safety Risk Assessment: A History and Analysis

Before the founding of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) in 1980, food safety in the United States had long been a concern, but there was a lack of systematic methods to assess food-related risks. In 1906, the U.S. Congress passed, and President Roosevelt signed, the Pure Food and Drug Act and the Meat Inspection Act to regulate food safety at the federal level. This Act followed the publication of multiple reports of food contamination, culminating in Upton Sinclair's novel The Jungle, which highlighted food and worker abuses in the meatpacking industry. Later in the 20th century, important developments in agricultural and food technology greatly increased food production. But chemical exposures from agricultural and other practices resulted in major amendments to federal food laws, including the Delaney Clause, aimed specifically at cancer-causing chemicals. Later in the 20th century, when quantitative risk assessment methods were given greater scientific status in a seminal National Research Council report, food safety risk assessment became more systematized. Additionally, in these last 40 years, food safety research has resulted in increased understanding of a range of health effects from foodborne chemicals, and technological developments have improved U.S. food safety from farm to fork by offering new ways to manage risks. We discuss the history of food safety and the role risk analysis has played in its evolution, starting from over a century ago, but focusing on the last 40 years. While we focus on chemical risk assessment in the U.S., we also discuss microbial risk assessment and international food safety.     

Effects of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement on U.S. agricultural exports

This paper investigates the effects of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement (CUSTA) on U.S. exports of agricultural products. Econometric analysis found that CUSTA has had a large impact on many U.S. agricultural export categories. All of the consumer-oriented products (except wine and beer), five of the intermediate products, and four of the bulk products had significant CUSTA effects. It is clear that the CUSTA effects have been larger for consumer-oriented food products. There is also evidence that U.S. affiliate sales in Canada have stimulated U.S. exports of consumer-oriented products and intermediate products.     

25 Health care trends. What's hot,what's not,and what does the future hold

As we usher in 2003, America's health care system remains in a chaotic state. Will managed care live or die? Will quality improvement efforts pay off? Are we ready for the next bioterrorism attack? Will the shortage of physician soon rival the shortage of nurses? To help gauge where health care stands today and what the future holds, The Physician Executive asked doctors who serve on ACPE's peer review panel to list the hottest health care trends in the U.S right now. Then, we took the list to three respected health care futurists -- Leland Kaiser, PhD, Jeff Goldsmith, PhD, and Russel Coile, MBA -- and asked them for their insights on the trends. Yes, Kaiser, Goldsmith and Coile are opinionated. Yes, they're controversial. But no matter whether you agree or disagree with their views, the three health care futurists' comments could spark discussions that will help shape U.S. health care this year and beyond. The trends are presented in no particular order.     

Genetically Modified Organisms and the U.S. Retail Food Labeling Controversy: Consumer Perceptions,Regulation, and Public Policy

In this article, we address the public issue of mandatory Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) retail food labeling in the U.S., first by reviewing the policy arguments both in support and against labeling food containing GMOs; second, by describing the existing U.S. federal regulatory system pertaining to GMO labeling, and why it does not presently require labeling of food containing GMOs; third, by reviewing and interpreting the results of studies of American consumer attitudes toward mandatory GMO retail food labeling; fourth, by evaluating, through the utilization of issue life cycle analysis in the nonmarket environment, where the issue of GMO retail food labeling stands in the national public policy process; fifth, summarizing the state of scientific evidence addressing the safety of GMO foods and the existing regulatory and public policy environment for this issue; and sixth, offering legislative and litigation strategies for the mainstream food nonmarket strategy framework to formally assess the GMO industry to protect their interests and those of American consumers not concerned with GMO food ingredients, while offering a voluntary labeling strategy for firms responding to and recognizing the “rights” of American consumers who “choose” to purchase non‐GMO food products.     

Economic impact of a ban on the use of over the counter antibiotics in U.S. swine rations

The U.S. pork industry routinely adds antibiotics to rations of weaned pigs both to prevent illness before symptoms emerge and to increase growth rates. The European Union (EU) is in the process of restricting feed use of antibiotics, and the U.S. is currently reviewing the practice. The strategic issue facing U.S. pork producers is whether another food safety dispute with the EU is worthwhile. This paper evaluates the economic impact of such a ban in the U.S. The analysis uses a set of technical assumptions derived from the experience of a similar ban in Sweden and finds such a ban would increase production costs per head between $5.24 and $6.05; net profit would decline $0.79 per head. On the consumer side, the effects of a ban would raise the retail price of pork by 5 cents per pound.     

Interstitial Lung Diseases in the U.S. Mining Industry: Using MSHA Data to Examine Trends and the Prevention Effects of Compliance with Health Regulations, 1996–2015

Given the recent increase in dust‐induced lung disease among U.S. coal miners and the respiratory hazards encountered across the U.S. mining industry, it is important to enhance an understanding of lung disease trends and the organizational contexts that precede these events. In addition to exploring overall trends reported to the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), the current study uses MSHA's enforcement database to examine whether or not compliance with health regulations resulted in fewer mine‐level counts of these diseases over time. The findings suggest that interstitial lung diseases were more prevalent in coal mines compared to other mining commodities, in Appalachian coal mines compared to the rest of the United States, and in underground compared to surface coal mines. Mines that followed a relevant subset of MSHA's health regulations were less likely to report a lung disease over time. The findings are discussed from a lung disease prevention strategy perspective.     

Global Maize Trade and Food Security: Implications from a Social Network Model

In this study, we developed a social network model of the global trade of maize: one of the most important food, feed, and industrial crops worldwide, and critical to food security. We used this model to analyze patterns of maize trade among nations, and to determine where vulnerabilities in food security might arise if maize availability was decreased due to factors such as diversion to nonfood uses, climatic factors, or plant diseases. Using data on imports and exports from the U.N. Commodity Trade Statistics Database for each year from 2000 to 2009 inclusive, we summarized statistics on volumes of maize trade between pairs of nations for 217 nations. There is evidence of market segregation among clusters of nations; with three prominent clusters representing Europe, Brazil and Argentina, and the United States. The United States is by far the largest exporter of maize worldwide, whereas Japan and the Republic of Korea are the largest maize importers. In particular, the star‐shaped cluster of the network that represents U.S. maize trade to other nations indicates the potential for food security risks because of the lack of trade these other nations conduct with other maize exporters. If a scenario arose in which U.S. maize could not be exported in as large quantities, maize supplies in many nations could be jeopardized. We discuss this in the context of recent maize ethanol production and its attendant impacts on food prices elsewhere worldwide.     

Conflicts inherent in Corporate Codes

Codes of Conduct have enjoyed a long history as guides to human behavior. Corporate Codes of Conduct enjoy significant popularity in the U.S. and U.K. This article examines Codes in terms of their evolution (history), expectations (from possible to impossible), and enforcement (the area of greatest difficulty). The article examines trends in Corporate Codes and defines Codes as one aspect of developing corporate conscience. The article concludes with the view that useful as Codes may be, the inherent problem with Codes has been their separation over time from a moral foundation or philosophical base.     

Nutrition considerations in food selection

The importance of nutrition consideration to households in food selection is instrumental in the development of information programs to promote public health and to market healthy food. Using a national telephone survey of 2880 U.S. households, this study examines the role and influence of socio-economic characteristics and lifestyle on a household meal planner’s consideration of four dietary components in food selection. Household income, children in households, geographic location, and gender, age, education, and lifestyle of meal planners affected the consideration of dietary components in food selection. The results provide a basis for developing education programs that focus on the particular dietary consideration of identified demographic subgroups.     

Communicating Food Risks in an Era of Growing Public Distrust: Three Case Studies

The communication and regulation of risk has changed significantly over the past 30 years in Europe and to a noticeable but lesser extent in the United States. In Europe, this is partly due to a series of regulatory mishaps, ranging from mad cow disease in the United Kingdom to contamination of the blood supply in France. In the United States, general public confidence in the American government has been gradually declining for more than three decades, driven by a mix of cultural and political conflicts like negative political advertising, a corrosive news media, and cuts in regulatory budgets. While the former approach is based on an objective assessment of the risk, the latter is driven more by the perception of the risk, consumer sentiment, political will, and sectoral advocacy. In this article, the author examines three U.S.‐based food case studies (acrylamide, bisphenol A, and artificial food colorings) where regulations at the local and state levels are increasingly being based on perceived risk advocacy rather than on the most effective response to the risk, be it to food safety or public health, as defined by regulatory interpretation of existing data. In the final section, the author puts forward a series of recommendations for how U.S.‐based regulators can best handle those situations where the perceived risk is markedly different from the fact‐based risk, such as strengthening the communication departments of food regulatory agencies, training officials in risk communication, and working more proactively with neutral third‐party experts.     

The potential for recall insurance to improve food safety

This paper explores the food safety implications of insurance products that compensate for business losses when food contamination causes a processing firm to initiate a recall. Discoveries of meat and poultry product contamination, in particular life-threatening pathogens, are increasing. The financial losses that follow a recall can be substantial as illustrated by several recent U.S. cases—Hudson Foods, Bil Mar, and Thorn Apple Valley Inc. Additionally, contaminated food product that escapes the current recall system poses a threat to consumer safety. The conceptual analysis presented here suggests that insurance underwriters could motivate earlier recalls and more diligent implementation of Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP). With sound underwriting, these changes could ultimately reduce the incidence of illness and death from foodborne pathogens.     

An Improved Framework for Uncertainty Analysis: Accounting for Unsuspected Errors

I use an analogy with the history of physical measurements, population and energy projections, and analyze the trends in several data sets to quantify the overconfidence of the experts in the reliability of their uncertainty estimates. Data sets include (i) time trends in the sequential measurements of the same physical quantity; (ii) national population projections; and (iii) projections for the U.S., energy sector. Probabilities of large deviations for the true values are parametrized by an exponential distribution with the slope determined by the data. Statistics of past errors can be used in probabilistic risk assessment to hedge against unsuspected uncertainties and to include the possibility of human error into the framework of uncertainty analysis. By means of a sample Monte Carlo simulation of cancer risk caused by ingestion of benzene in soil, I demonstrate how the upper 95th percentiles of risk are changed when unsuspected uncertainties are included. I recommend to inflate the estimated uncertainties by default safety factors determined from the relevant historical data sets.     

Industrial engineering: a dynamic response to change?

A study of industrial engineering in seven European countries was carried out for the purpose of comparing European organization and practice in that field with the American situation as revealed by an earlier survey. The data obtained relate to organizational variables such as distinctiveness, location, degree of centralization and contact with headquarters; staffing factors such as number of personnel and their education, and the use made of specified techniques. Changes and trends in these terms are then explained. The data suggest that Europe and the U.S. are essentially similar. Finally, the future of industrial engineering is explained in terms of the demands which will be made on industry and the contribution which industrial engineering can make to meeting these.     

Transportation after deregulation

For 40 years U.S. airlines operated under tight government control. Deregulation has put them in competition in an open market where they have had to become more efficient to compete. They have also had to bear the consequences of the—until the recent levelling off—rocketing price of fuel, a world-wide recession and a damaging strike of traffic controllers. However, services have increased, fares have stabilized and been pared down and adjusted to the market. The authors trace the strategic trends consequent on deregulation, the necessity for a change in company values and the importance of technological innovation.     

Foreign aid and national priorities

Foreign aid evolved from a combination of postwar trends—reconstruction efforts, U.S. foreign policy objectives, post-colonial relations, and humanitarianism. At no prior time has foreign aid played a role in relations among nations; and there are signs—relative stagnation of aid flows, increased doubts about the aid relationship—that aid in its present form may not be a permanent feature of the international scene. One of the important questions to be addressed as we speculate about the prospects for the Second Development Decade and beyond, is whether this is a process to be resisted or an evolution to be aided.     

VCCEP Pilot: Progress on Evaluating Children''s Risks and Data Needs

The Voluntary Children's Chemical Evaluation Program (VCCEP) is designed to provide information to the public on children's potential health risks associated with chemical exposures. The key question of the VCCEP is whether the potential hazards, exposures, and risks to children have been adequately characterized, and, if not, what additional data are necessary. To answer this question, manufacturers or importers of 23 chemicals were asked by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) to sponsor their chemicals in the first tier of a pilot program. These chemicals were selected for evaluation because they have been found as contaminants in human tissue or fluids (adipose tissue, blood, breath, breast milk, or urine); food and water children may eat and drink; or air children may breathe (including residential or school air). Under the VCCEP framework, sponsoring companies agree to prepare Tier 1 hazard, exposure, and risk assessments on the individual chemicals, and identify the need for additional data. These assessment documents are submitted to the U.S. EPA and subsequently undergo review by experts in an independent peer consultation meeting that is open to the public. Following this peer consultation process, the U.S. EPA reviews each submission and makes a data-needs determination, which may include requesting further data collection or generation by the sponsor. Sponsoring companies then decide whether to volunteer for the next tier and collect or generate the requested data. The purpose of this article is to describe the VCCEP process and to review and present the key findings from the first set of chemicals that have been fully or partially evaluated under the pilot program (vinylidene chloride, decabromodiphenyl ether, pentabromodiphenyl ether, octabromodiphenyl ether, acetone, methyl ethyl ketone, decane, undecane, and dodecane). Specifically, we provide a brief summary of the sponsors' submissions, the peer consultation panels' discussions, and the U.S. EPA's data-needs decisions. Although we do not attempt to conduct independent analyses of the underlying data, we do identify a number of common themes that have emerged during implementation of the pilot program and discuss several key issues that could become important in the future. The information presented here should be useful for various parties interested in the progress of the VCCEP and the results of the initial (Tier 1) children's assessments.     

Consumer Phase Risk Assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in Deli Meats

The foodborne disease risk associated with the pathogen Listeria monocytogenes has been the subject of recent efforts in quantitative microbial risk assessment. Building upon one of these efforts undertaken jointly by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the purpose of this work was to expand on the consumer phase of the risk assessment to focus on handling practices in the home. One-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation was used to model variability in growth and cross-contamination of L. monocytogenes during food storage and preparation of deli meats. Simulations approximated that 0.3% of the servings were contaminated with >10(4) CFU/g of L. monocytogenes at the time of consumption. The estimated mean risk associated with the consumption of deli meats for the intermediate-age population was approximately 7 deaths per 10(11) servings. Food handling in homes increased the estimated mean mortality by 10(6)-fold. Of all the home food-handling practices modeled, inadequate storage, particularly refrigeration temperatures, provided the greatest contribution to increased risk. The impact of cross-contamination in the home was considerably less. Adherence to USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service recommendations for consumer handling of ready-to-eat foods substantially reduces the risk of listeriosis.     

Human Health Risk Assessment of Penicillin/Aminopenicillin Resistance in Enterococci Due to Penicillin Use in Food Animals

Penicillin and ampicillin drugs are approved for use in food animals in the United States to treat, control, and prevent diseases, and penicillin is approved for use to improve growth rates in pigs and poultry. This article considers the possibility that such uses might increase the incidence of ampicillin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (AREF) of animal origin in human infections, leading to increased hospitalization and mortality due to reduced response to ampicillin or penicillin. We assess the risks from continued use of penicillin-based drugs in food animals in the United States, using several assumptions to overcome current scientific uncertainties and data gaps. Multiplying the total at-risk population of intensive care unit (ICU) patients by a series of estimated factors suggests that not more than 0.04 excess mortalities per year (under conservative assumptions) to 0.14 excess mortalities per year (under very conservative assumptions) might be prevented in the whole U.S. population if current use of penicillin drugs in food animals were discontinued and if this successfully reduced the prevalence of AREF infections among ICU patients. These calculations suggest that current penicillin usage in food animals in the United States presents very low (possibly zero) human health risks.