A unique event and Delphi

In this article the author describes the application of a Delphi forecast in response to a unique event—The Stockton & Darlington Railway Anniversary 1975. He illustrates the successes and failures of the survey and makes recommendations as to how failures may have been avoided. The article also includes ideas on how the Delphi approach might be used in other ways in social forecasting.     

REPORTING OF MANAGEMENT FORECASTS: AN EIGENVECTOR MODEL FOR ELICITATION AND REVIEW OF FORECASTS

Increasingly, business firms will be disclosing management forecasts in financial reports to investors. Single estimates based on a consensus view (e.g., Delphi estimates) may be used. It seems logical, however, to consider methods that seek formally to derive internally consistent subjective views regarding the sensitivity of assumptions and interacting events on forecasts. The major purpose of this paper is to extend micro-level cross-impact analysis to a macro-level eigenvalue analysis approach that elicits views of the effects of assumptions and interaction events on entire scenarios. Both methods are illustrated and contrasted. They are complementary rather than alternative methods. In particular, each method offers some potential in the development of operational guidelines for elicitation and reporting of management forecasts. In addition, the eigenvalue analysis offers several key advantages that make it potentially useful in preparing entire scenario forecasts.     

Managing Delphi Surveys Using Nonparametric Statistical Techniques*

Information systems researchers have often turned to a variant of the Delphi survey technique to support their research of key issues in their field. Two particular weaknesses of past studies using this approach have been a lack of a definitive method for conducting the research and a lack of statistical support for the conclusions drawn by the researchers. In this paper, the author presents a method, based on nonparametric statistical techniques, to conduct ranking-type Delphi surveys, perform analysis, and report results. The author takes this one step further by illustrating an actual analysis of a Delphi survey. The analysis is compared to results that were presented without the benefit of the author's approach. This paper shows that use of the advocated approach can streamline and strengthen studies, improve the validity of results, and thus better serve the consumers of the research findings. Since the ranking-type Delphi is so popular among information systems researchers, a consistent method is needed to apply to their data collection, analysis, and reporting of results. This paper provides such a method in concise form and illustrates the use of the method in a manner affording comparison between it and previous practice.     

Janus and the Delphi Oracle: Entering the new world of international business research

Globalization and other dramatic, world-changing developments have all too frequently taken academic researchers by surprise. Within this dynamic, turbulent environment, international business (IB) researchers must comprehend increasingly complex, multicultural, cross-border activities and organizing systems while providing relevant results to the field. To build and sustain relevance, the international research paradigm must expand to incorporate not only the analysis of historical trends and events but also research frameworks and methods geared to investigation of the future. With this expanded research ‘tool kit’, we will be better able to anticipate and address the ‘Big Questions’ confronting global business operations in the twenty-first century.This paper examines the capabilities of the Delphi Method of scientific inquiry as one such tool which is responsive to the challenging demands of our discipline and describes recent innovations that enhance the Delphi's application to international management research. As this paper demonstrates, the Delphi Method is particularly well-suited to emerging research themes that call on IB researchers to interpret intricate sets of entities, activities, and relationships. Based on conclusions drawn from a summary of recent Delphi studies, recommendations are offered for maximizing the benefits of this method for international research.     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities Using Generalized Moment Selection

The topic of this paper is inference in models in which parameters are defined by moment inequalities and/or equalities. The parameters may or may not be identified. This paper introduces a new class of confidence sets and tests based on generalized moment selection (GMS). GMS procedures are shown to have correct asymptotic size in a uniform sense and are shown not to be asymptotically conservative. The power of GMS tests is compared to that of subsampling, m out of n bootstrap, and “plug‐in asymptotic” (PA) tests. The latter three procedures are the only general procedures in the literature that have been shown to have correct asymptotic size (in a uniform sense) for the moment inequality/equality model. GMS tests are shown to have asymptotic power that dominates that of subsampling, m out of n bootstrap, and PA tests. Subsampling and m out of n bootstrap tests are shown to have asymptotic power that dominates that of PA tests.     

Energy and the environment—A Delphi forecast

The author is currently an Assistant Professor of Geography at the University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada. In the long range forecasting project ‘Energy and the Environment’, discussed in this article (conducted in 1970|1971 at the Pennsylvania State University), the Delphi method was employed to evaluate potential breakthroughs in energy technologies and environmental protection, management and planning innovations during the next 50 years. The priorities for energy—environmental problems, the growth of the traditional energy technologies and the probabilities of environmental ‘episodes’ in the 1970's were additional topics in the Delphi study.     

Expert Views on Biological Threat Characterization for the U.S. Government: A Delphi Study

Biological threat characterization (BTC) involves laboratory research conducted for the purpose of biological defense. BTC research is important for improving biological risk assessment and informing resource prioritization. However, there are also risks involved in BTC work, including potential for escape from the laboratory or the misuse of research results. Using a modified Delphi study to gather opinions from U.S. experts in biosecurity and biodefense, this analysis explores what principles and safeguards can maximize the benefits of BTC research and ensure that it is conducted safely and securely. Delphi participants were asked to give their opinions about the need for BTC research by the U.S. government (USG); risks of conducting this research; rules or guidelines that should be in place to ensure that the work is safe and accurate; components of an effective review and prioritization process; rules for when characterization of a pathogen can be discontinued; and recommendations about who in the USG should be responsible for BTC prioritization decisions. The findings from this research reinforce the need for BTC research at the federal level as well as a need for continued review and oversight of this research to maximize its effectiveness and reduce the risks involved. It also demonstrates the need for further discussion of what would constitute a “red line” for biothreat characterization research—research that should not be performed for safety, ethical, or practical reasons—and guidelines for when there is sufficient research in a given topic area so that the research can be considered completed.     

A Delphi Method Expert Survey to Derive Standards for Flood Damage Data Collection

For the purpose of flood damage analyses reliable, comparable, comprehensive, consistent, and up-to-date data are an indispensable need. Like in many other countries a database with this kind of datasets does not exist in Germany. To establish it, standards have to be set for flood damage data collection. We approached this problem by questioning experts about their information needs for flood damage analysis. This survey is done by applying a Delphi survey approach. The aptitude of the Delphi approach to assess, structure, and standardize expert knowledge is evaluated in this article. In the survey a panel of 55 experts working in the field of flood damage analysis for insurances, engineering companies/consultancy, public water management, and universities and other scientific institutions helped to identify common information needs. The multi-step Delphi method proved to reduce the deviation of answers thereby enabling consensual results and also enhanced the quality by modifying group answers in the direction of experience based answers. There was also a high level of congruence in information needs between experts from different fields of employment that allowed the derivation of common standards.     

Enhancing knowledge construction processes within multicriteria decision analysis: The Collaborative Value Modelling framework

This paper proposes a new Collaborative Value Modelling framework, that combines Delphi and multicriteria decision conferencing, to build widely informed evaluation models. Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is commonly used to help decision-makers and other stakeholders in complex evaluation contexts. Further to the technical soundness and meaningfulness of the methods and tools used, it is critical to design adequate social processes to promote shared understanding around key evaluation issues while capturing multiple stakeholders’ values and perspectives. Multicriteria decision conferencing processes have been typically adopted for collaborative modelling using MCDA methods in decision conferences with relatively small groups. Such a socio-technical approach has proven to be effective, in a variety of contexts, in creating a collaborative environment that enables surfacing individual beliefs, identifying common concerns, managing eventual value conflicts and promoting agreement in group model building. But, extending this framework to broader participatory contexts requires a different design of the social process, in order to ensure that model building captures the full panoply of points of view. This challenge can be tackled by enhancing multicriteria decision conferencing with an all-embracing (Web-)Delphi participatory process. We depart from the existing collaborative knowledge acquisition methodology to design, with the Delphi method, a participatory knowledge construction process that elicits and analyses individual judgemental knowledge from a (very) large and diverse number of stakeholders. The knowledge acquired is then digested by a small group of key-players, in a subsequent decision conferencing, to collaboratively develop a widely informed multicriteria evaluation model. This new Web-Delphi-decision conferencing social setting has been tested already in real complex evaluation contexts using a specific multicriteria method, the Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH), to develop a variety of value modelling activities. We call this socio-technical design the Collaborative Value Modelling framework. Here, we describe its real use to support the construction of value functions, focusing on how the judgemental knowledge collected flows between the participatory and collaborative stages of the framework. Results validate that enhancing MACBETH decision conferencing with an ex ante Web-Delphi process fosters higher participation and collaboration in multicriteria modelling.     

The Quantitative Estimation of IT‐Related Risk Probabilities

How well can people estimate IT‐related risk? Although estimating risk is a fundamental activity in software management and risk is the basis for many decisions, little is known about how well IT‐related risk can be estimated at all. Therefore, we executed a risk estimation experiment with 36 participants. They estimated the probabilities of IT‐related risks and we investigated the effect of the following factors on the quality of the risk estimation: the estimator's age, work experience in computing, (self‐reported) safety awareness and previous experience with this risk, the absolute value of the risk's probability, and the effect of knowing the estimates of the other participants (see: Delphi method). Our main findings are: risk probabilities are difficult to estimate. Younger and inexperienced estimators were not significantly worse than older and more experienced estimators, but the older and more experienced subjects better used the knowledge gained by knowing the other estimators' results. Persons with higher safety awareness tend to overestimate risk probabilities, but can better estimate ordinal ranks of risk probabilities. Previous own experience with a risk leads to an overestimation of its probability (unlike in other fields like medicine or disasters, where experience with a disease leads to more realistic probability estimates and nonexperience to an underestimation).     

The Delphi method and urbanization

In this article the author puts forward his reasons for wishing to use the Delphi method for a future forecasting programme in Canada. He argues that the results of such a survey should be of great assistance in the field of urban affairs.     

Manufacturing cell formation using similarity coefficients and pair-wise interchange: formulation and comparison

Many algorithms have been proposed to form manufacturing cells from component routeings. Most of these methods require specialized algorithms for implementation. Some others use well-known procedures such as integer programming. But these may be difficult for practising managers to comprehend. In this study we propose a simple method that can be implemented using spreadsheet software and an inexpensive layout package such as CRAFT. In addition, we also compare our procedure with many existing procedures using eight well-known problems from the literature. The results show that the proposed procedure compares well with the existing procedures using three evaluation measures. Therefore, this procedure may be useful to practitioners and researchers.     

Medicines in the 1990's: Experience with a Delphi forecast

‘Medicines in the 1990's’ created great public interest when it was published recently. It forecast, for example, that by 1990 it should be possible to replace almost all parts of the body, except the brain and spinal cord with transplants or prostheses. It also predicted that by 1990, the social use of medicines will have become accepted as legitimate. This article describes step by step, how the Delphi forecast was made and the effect which it has had.     

The programmable society and the individual as a unit of data

The authors commence this paper with discussion of an extract from H.G. Wells' novel of 1920. They use this extract to remind the reader that social innovation is not a new problem and that imaginative writers may be a source of guidance on such matters. Specifically they deal with the social options created by ‘computer-driven’ information systems. They argue that this aspect of the problem of science and people is one which has a great and seriously under-estimated potential to influence the quality of life in a future society.     

Important Strategic and Tactical Manufacturing Issues in the 1990s*

This paper reports the identification and ranking of major manufacturing issues that American manufacturing managers and academics must focus on and resolve in the 1990s to be competitive on a global basis. Vice-presidents of manufacturing from over 75 companies across the United States were asked in a Delphi study to rank the key strategic and tactical issues facing American manufacturing in the next three to five years. Based on three rounds of a Delphi study, quality management, manufacturing strategy, and process technology emerged as the top ranked strategic issues. The top ranked tactical issues were quality control, manufacturing planning and control systems, and work force supervision. These issues were valid across diverse industry groups, since the industrial and educational background of the respondents was shown to have no impact on the final consensus rankings and opinions reported in this paper. Factor analysis of the responses by the panel revealed that certain issues tend to be consistently viewed together, and were interpreted accordingly to provide insights into the ranking of issues. Apart from building a consensus among experts on key manufacturing issues of present and future importance, this study can also be helpful for setting future academic research and pedagogical priorities for the field of production and operations management.     

A Review of Training Strategies to Teach Individuals Implementation of Behavioral Interventions

The purpose of this review is to provide a critical analysis of research on staff training procedures to identify best practices as well as unanswered questions, which may be addressed in future research. We analyzed 24 articles along the dimensions of participant and intervention characteristics; the procedures targeted for training, training components, and mediums of delivery; the duration of training and the effectiveness of the outcomes; the generality; and the social validity of the training strategies. We discussed the implication of the findings as they relate to research and practice.     

Choosing Choices: Agenda Selection With Uncertain Issues

We study selection rules: voting procedures used by committees to choose whether to place an issue on their agenda. At the selection stage of the model, committee members are uncertain about their final preferences. They only have some private information about these preferences. We show that voters become more conservative when the selection rule itself becomes more conservative. The decision rule has the opposite effect. We compare these voting procedures to the designation of an agenda setter among the committee and to a utilitarian social planner with all the ex interim private information.     

Valuing Equal Protection in Aviation Security Screening

The growing number of anti‐terrorism policies has elevated public concerns about discrimination. Within the context of airport security screening, the current study examines how American travelers value the principle of equal protection by quantifying the “equity premium” that they are willing to sacrifice to avoid screening procedures that result in differential treatments. In addition, we applied the notion of procedural justice to explore the effect of alternative selective screening procedures on the value of equal protection. Two‐hundred and twenty‐two respondents were randomly assigned to one of three selective screening procedures: (1) randomly, (2) using behavioral indicators, or (3) based on demographic characteristics. They were asked to choose between airlines using either an equal or a discriminatory screening procedure. While the former requires all passengers to be screened in the same manner, the latter mandates all passengers undergo a quick primary screening and, in addition, some passengers are selected for a secondary screening based on a predetermined selection criterion. Equity premiums were quantified in terms of monetary cost, wait time, convenience, and safety compromise. Results show that equity premiums varied greatly across respondents, with many indicating little willingness to sacrifice to avoid inequitable screening, and a smaller minority willing to sacrifice anything to avoid the discriminatory screening. The selective screening manipulation was effective in that equity premiums were greater under selection by demographic characteristics compared to the other two procedures.