Price perception and confirmation bias in the context of a VAT increase

This paper examines a potential confirmation bias in price perception in consequence to a real-world event and different explanations for such a confirmation bias. In a panel design conducted 2 months before and after a raise in value-added tax (VAT), 303 participants had to estimate the current prices for four products affected and four products not affected by this raise in VAT and the anticipated or recalled prices of these products. Before the VAT increase, an undifferentiated belief in strong future price increases was prevalent. After the VAT increase, a confirmation bias was found: in retrospect, participants reported price increases that were significantly higher than the official price development and in line with an undifferentiated belief in marked price increases. Two theoretical explanations for confirmation bias, i.e., the biased use of price information and the selective distortion of memory, fit the data.     

Perceived inflation and expected future prices in different currencies

Five experiments were conducted to investigate whether perceived inflation and expected future prices are influenced by the nominal representation of increases in product prices in different currencies. In contrast to previous research demonstrating overestimates of the perceived inflation of product prices after the transition of the domestic German Mark to Euro [Greitemeyer, T., Schultz-Hardt, S., Traut-Mattausch, E., & Frey, D. (2005). The influence of price trend expectations on price trend perceptions: Why the Euro seems to make life more expensive? Journal of Economic Psychology, 26, 541–548; Traut-Mattausch, E., Schultz-Hardt, S., Greitemeyer, T., & Frey, D. (2004). Expectancy confirmation in spite of disconfirming evidence: The case of price increases due to the introduction of the Euro. European Journal of Social Psychology, 34, 739–760], the price increases were of normal magnitude (5% and 8%) and a larger set of prices was used including small weekly expenses, prices of durables, and rent. All experiments were conducted in Sweden (not member of the European monetary union) employing undergraduates who volunteered to participate in class settings without any financial compensation. The price increases were expressed in the same currency, either actual currencies (Swedish Crowns or Euros) or fictitious currencies with different units. In general inflation was underestimated, to a larger extent when the currency or the product prices were unfamiliar than familiar. It was also shown that product-specific price changes made it difficult to perceive inflationary price increases. Only marginal effects of currency unit were observed.     

IS LAND LEASING A SOLUTION TO UNAFFORDABLE HOUSING?

The increase in U.S. mortgage rates from nine per cent in 1976 to fifteen per cent in 1982 raised monthly mortgage payments by about sixty per cent, even before rising house prices in the United States over this period are taken into account. Not surprisingly, attention has been focused on ways and means of counteracting spiralling housing costs. One proposed solution is land leasing. Under such an arrangement, the homebuyer purchases the house but leases the land. (There may be an option to buy the land at some time in the future.) Land leasing reduces the overall purchase price, and hence lowers the minimum down-payment and the initial monthly mortgage payment. In Hawaii, land leasing has been a readily available alternative to land owning throughout the postwar period. The analysis of residential housing prices in Hawaii provides some quantitative estimates of the relative prices of leasehold versus fee simple properties. The average price differential is surprisingly small. One explanation of these small price differentials, for which a model is developed and tested here, is that borrowing-constrained households use high discount rates to calculate the present value of the future land price that they will, in effect, have to pay at the expiration of the lease. These discount rates are estimated in a nonlinear hedonic property price equation. The results are then employed to answer the question: Under what conditions would a leaseholder buy the land outright before the expiration of the lease?     

REPUTATION,PRICE, AND DEATH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ART PRICE FORMATION

We analyze how an artist's death influences the market prices of her works of art. Death has two opposing effects on art prices. By irrevocably restricting the artist's oeuvre, prices, ceteris paribus, increase when the artist dies. On the other hand, an untimely death may well frustrate the collectors' hopes of owning artwork that will, as the artist's career progresses, become generally known and appreciated. By frustrating expected future name recognition, death impacts negatively on art prices. In conjunction, these two channels of influence give rise to a hump‐shaped relationship between age at death and death‐induced price changes. Using transactions from fine art auctions, we show that the empirically identified death effects indeed conform to our theoretical predictions. We derive our results from hedonic art price regressions, making use of a dataset which exceeds the sample size of traditional studies in cultural economics by an order of magnitude. (JEL Z11, J24, G12)     

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ALCOHOL ADDICTION: RESULTS FROM THE MONITORING THE FUTURE PANELS

In a panel of young adults, we find that alcohol consumption is addictive in the sense that increases in past or future consumption cause current consumption to rise. The positive and significant future consumption effect is consistent with the hypothesis of rational addiction. The long-run price elasticity is approximately 60% larger than the short-run price elasticity and twice as large as the elasticity that ignores addiction. Thus, a tax hike policy to curtail consumption or abuse may not have a favorable cost-benefit ratio unless it is based on the long-run price elasticity. (JEL 110)     

HOW TO HAGGLE and TO STAY FIRM: BARTER AS HIDDEN PRICE DISCRIMINATION

Barter transactions, conducted openly by established corporations, play an increasingly significant role in the U.S. economy. The model developed here helps explain why firms use barter and yields predictions concerning the circumstances under which barter is likely to occur. It is shown that when two firms barter goods used as inputs, price discrimination occurs. This price discrimination is hidden from the firms' other customers because the real values of the transacted goods to the barterers are different from the accounting prices used in the transaction. Since price discrimination that is observed by potential customers might have an adverse effect on the selling firm's future bargaining power, barter will have value as a means of hiding price discrimination.     

SOME EVIDENCE ON LUMP SUM VERSUS CONVEX COSTS OF CHANGING PRICES

Two models in which price stickiness results from price adjustment costs are tested. One, an (s,S) pricing model, assumes lump-sum adjustment costs and predicts firms will make relatively large, infrequent price changes. The other assumes convex adjustment costs and predicts frequent, partial price adjustments. Survey data of firms' price behavior reveal patterns consistent with the (s,S) model. However, many of the patterns are also consistent with partial-adjustment rules, although the high percentage of firms which fix prices for a quarter or more casts doubt on the plausibility of the partial-adjustment hypothesis.     

THE EFFECTS OF STATE AUTOMOBILE DEALER ENTRY REGULATION ON NEW CAR PRICES

This paper examines the impact of state regulations restricting entry into new car retailing. The central hypothesis is that these regulations create artificial scarcity rents for existing dealers, which are collected through higher car prices. A reduced form multiple regression model is specified with retail price as the dependent variable. The model is estimated using transactions price data for a sample of over 5,000 Chevrolet dealers and seven car lines in 1978. The results confirm the hypothesis that entry restrictions cause higher car prices.     

AN EXPERIMENT ON INNOVATION AND COLLUSION

This paper examines the relationship between product innovation and the success of price collusion using novel laboratory experiments. Average market prices in low innovation (LO) experiments are significantly higher than those in high innovation, but otherwise identical experiments. This price difference is attributed to LO experimental subjects' greater common market experience. The data illustrate how collusion can be perceived as the “only way to make it” in LO markets where product innovation is not a viable strategy for increasing profits. They suggest that product homogeneity can be a proximate cause, and product innovation an ultimate cause, of collusion. (JEL L41, L10, C92)     

THE INCENTIVES FOR RESALE PRICE MAINTENANCE UNDER IMPERFECT INFORMATION

This paper considers both the incentives for and the welfare effects of resale price maintenance (RPM) in retail markets characterized by imperfect consumer information. In markets where point-of-sale information on the product is essential for sales and information on prices is costly, RPM permits manufacturers with some monopoly power to resolve two incentive conflicts with retailers. First, because retailers with price-setting powers do not appropriate the gains in profit to an upstream manufacturer from actions taken to increase demand, their incentives to inform consumers of the product and to set low prices are inadequate. This purely vertical externality results in the classic "double mark-up" of final prices. Second, when consumers' costs of price search vary, stores offering low prices and no information can exist in the market equilibrium. These discount houses free-ride on the informational services of high-price informing retail outlets — a horizontal externality. In the imperfect information setting of this paper, (1) administered pricing improves monopolists' profits by resolving the incentive conflict; (2) the profitable use of a price floor reduces the maximum retail price charged and may reduce the average retail price; (3) price floors or administered prices can be Pareto-improving and more likely welfare (surplus)-improving; (4) price floors are welfare-improving.     

Hospital pricing: cost shifting and competition

The issue of cost shifting has taken on enormous policy implications. It is estimated that unsponsored and undercompensated hospital costs--one measure of cost shifting--has totaled $21.5 billion in 1991. The health services research literature indicates that hospitals set different prices for different payers. However, the empirical evidence on hospitals' ability to raise prices to one payer to make up for unsponsored care or lower payments by other payers is mixed at best. No study has concluded that hospitals have raised prices to fully adjust for such actions. The extent of cost shifting is limited by the market. When a hospital has market power, it is able to set prices above marginal costs. However, when a buyer has enough patient/subscribers and a willingness to direct them to particular providers based on price considerations, hospitals have less flexibility in raising prices above costs. Thus, the extent of cost shifting is limited by the market. Cost shifting is not as easy as it may have been in the past because the nature of hospital and insurer competition has changed radically in the last decade. While hospital quality, services, and amenities still matter, some buyers are increasingly concerned about the price they pay. Evidence from studies of PPO and HMO negotiations with hospitals suggests that hospitals' market power is eroding, at least in some areas. In areas with relatively few hospital competitors and little PPO or HMO activity, Medicaid and Medicare price reductions and uncompensated care burdens will be partially absorbed by higher prices paid by private payers. In more price sensitive markets and in markets in which prices to private payers have risen to those commensurate with the market power of local hospitals, such cost shifting will not occur. A market-based approach in hospital pricing requires an explicit policy for the uninsured. In a competitive market, a hospital that traditionally cared for the uninsured by spending some of its profits on them will be unable to do so, at least to the same extent as it did in the past. Increased competition in health care without consideration of the uninsured will decrease the uninsured's access to care.     

HORIZONTAL MERGERS IN THE PRESENCE OF CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS

We examine a merger between two competitors in a Bertrand‐Edgeworth model. We find that the effects of merger depend on the tightness of capacity constraints. The combination of two firms has no price effect if and only if the capacity constraints of all firms are binding both before and after the merger. However, a merger may turn a binding capacity constraint into a slack one, which results in higher prices. In an industry where excess capacity drives the premerger prices of all firms to the marginal cost, a merger may cause prices to rise even though aggregate capacity remains constant. (JEL L13, L40)     

Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework

Drawing on relevant literature from a diverse range of academic disciplines we present a conceptual framework intended to further our understanding of perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation. Based on this framework, we provide a detailed review of the literature and an analysis of open issues in current research. The review is primarily concerned with individuals’ perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation, which can influence individuals’ economic behaviour (e.g. spending and saving decisions). The main insight from the review is that while consumers may have a limited ability to store and recall specific prices, and even succumb to a number of biases in the way in which they form perceptions and expectations of global price changes, they do seem to have some feel for, and ability to judge and forecast, inflation. How they achieve this, however, is still an open question, although plausible explanations have been proposed. While much important research has been undertaken and significant progress made in our understanding of the psychology of inflation, there remain many unanswered questions and interesting avenues for future research, which are discussed in the final part of the paper.     

Finite decentralization in a Tiebout economy with crowding types

We study a model with local public goods in which agents' crowding effects are formally distinguished from their taste types. It has been shown that the core of such an economy can be decentralized with anonymous admission prices (which are closely related to cost share prices). Unfortunately, such a price system allows for an arbitrary relationship between the public goods level in a given jurisdiction and the cost to an agent for joining. Formally, this means that admission prices are infinite dimensional. Attempts to decentralize the core with finite price systems such as Lindahl prices suggest that this is possible only under fairly restrictive conditions. In this paper, we introduce a new type of price system called finite cost shares. This system has strictly larger dimension than Lindahl prices but, in contrast to general cost share prices, is finite. We show that this allows for decentralization of the core under more general conditions than are possible with Lindahl prices. Received: 18 January 2000/Accepted: 21 January 2002 The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.     

How social comparison influences reference price formation in a service context

What is the influence on reference price when the source of price information is anonymous versus social? This article investigates the formation of reference prices given an observed sequence of past prices in a service context. An experimental study suggests that, considering the same price information, if the source is social (i.e., the prices paid by colleagues), then consumers want to pay less. More specifically, social comparison changes the way individuals weigh information, attributing more importance to the lowest historical prices and to the range in price variations.     

THE DEMAND for ILLICIT DRUGS

This paper estimates the effects of alcohol prices, marijuana decriminalization, cocaine prices, and heroin prices on the demand for these four substances. Both own price effects and cross price effects are estimated. The estimated price elasticities for alcohol, cocaine, and heroin are, respectively, –.30, –.28 and –.94. Marijuana decriminalization was found to increase the probability of marijuana participation by about 8%. The results for the cross price effects provide general evidence of complementarity. It is estimated that decriminalization of cocaine and heroin might lead to about 260,000 new regular cocaine users and about 47,000 new regular heroin users. ( JEL 110)     

Microstructures of economic action: talk,interaction and the bottom line

This paper contributes to an expanding body of research that has analysed the interactional foundations of economic activity, and price determination, by quantifying the financial implications of different micro‐interactional practices. Drawing on video recordings of naturalistic interaction the paper analyses a simple consumer choice, whether to pay one of two prices, the lower ‘standard’ price (£8.00) or the higher ‘gift aid’ (£8.80) price, to enter an arts institution. Utilizing resources from conversation analysis, the paper analyses different ways of posing this choice. It describes how, as interactional constraints tighten, standard prices become less socially desirable and customers increasingly ‘volunteer’ to pay the higher price. The paper contributes to sociological understandings of economic activity, demonstrating how simple one‐off choices, and prices, are accountably responsive to micro‐interactional structures.     

INFLATION AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF PRICE CHANGES ACROSS MARKETS: A CAUSAL ANALYSIS

Recent advances in time series methodology are applied to the investigation of causal relationships between monthly changes in the consumer price index and changes in its dispersion across different consumption categories. This dispersion is associated with the degree to which relative prices are changing. Past inflation rates seem useful in forecasting changes in relative prices, but not vice-versa; there is also a significant contemporaneous correlation between these series. Hence, it is concluded that fluctuations in the inflation rate help cause fluctuations in relative prices, but not vice-versa unless the entire effect occurs within a month. The analysis also serves to illustrate a new way to implement the Granger causality concept.     

Transmission of World Prices to Ugandan Coffee Growers in a Liberalised Economy

This article examines the transmission of world coffee prices to the price received by Ugandan coffee growers by means of Directed Acyclic Graphs which reveal the flow of information from the spot indicator price to the London futures price and then to the growers' price. A positive shock in the futures and indicator prices has respectively a positive and negative effect on the growers' price, and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition shows that uncertainty is attributable to own price, London futures price, and indicator price, in rank order. The article recommends that the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority should provide information on both futures and indicator prices to the growers.