Sovereign bond holdings and monetary policy operations in the euro area

This paper investigates the relationship between sovereign bond holdings of banks and refinancing operations by the ECB for countries in the euro area. We use data collected by Bruegel as well as a new dataset compiled from the annual statements of national central banks to estimate panel regression models. Our findings support the hypothesis that the ECB’s refinancing operations have increased resident banks’ exposure to domestic sovereign bonds. This is in line with the moral suasion theory advanced in the literature. These results strengthen the case for regulatory changes aimed at reducing the sensitivity of banks to sovereign risk.     

Differences in wage determination in the Eurozone: A challenge to the resilience of the common currency

Different developments in wages and unit labor costs across countries can reduce the synchronization of business cycles within a currency area and therefore be a potential source of asymmetric shocks and/or asymmetric response to a common shock. In this paper, we use novel econometric methods to identify differences and similarities in wage determination across Eurozone countries. Results show that wages have different determinants across euro area countries, among which two relatively distinct groups can be identified. In particular, wages in Germany, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Finland behave more similarly, are less sticky and respond more to macroeconomic conditions than those in the group composed of Italy, Spain, Portugal, France and Ireland. Moreover, the equilibrium wage has been affected by a structural change contemporaneous to the international financial crisis. Finally, structural reforms since the euro crisis have contributed to make labor market structures in Eurozone countries more similar, which contributed to improve the resilience of the Eurozone, but the job is not completed yet.     

Did monetary policy fuel the housing bubble? An application to Ireland

This paper provides empirical evidence of the role of the euro in the genesis of the recent Irish financial-economic crisis. By using a Taylor rule we measure the appropriateness of the ECB’s one-size-fits-all policy rate for the Irish economy. A counterfactual analysis suggests that the Irish interest rate should have been on average 6.5% higher. Using a BVAR and multivariate housing model, we provide econometric evidence that under an alternative sovereign monetary policy, the average house price would have been 25–30% lower just before the housing bust. In addition, it shows that a monetary policy tailored to the needs of the member state prevents housing prices from dramatically increasing.     

Youth‐oriented active labour market policies and economic crisis: Explaining policy effort in Greece and Portugal

The starting point of this study is the implementation of seemingly similar youth‐oriented labour market policies in Greece and Portugal. Both countries have suffered high youth unemployment rates and have been pressured to restructure their labour market as part of the rescue programmes adopted during the European sovereign debt crisis. Despite convergence in terms of policy trajectories, there is a significant divergence in employment outcomes. In Portugal, youth‐oriented policies were better‐targeted and structured. Their implementation has been more effective and has involved the social partners from the outset of the crisis. In Greece, policy design failures, administrative weaknesses and unfavourable macroeconomic conditions have limited the dynamics of youth‐oriented policies thus increasing youth insecurity. Τhe analysis suggests that convergence in policy content can be compatible with divergence in terms of outcomes.     

Macroeconomic asymmetry in the Eurozone before and after the Global Financial Crisis: An appraisal of the role of the ECB

The launch of the euro in 1999 was assumed to enhance macroeconomic convergence among EMU economies. We test this hypothesis from a comparative perspective, by calculating different indices to measure the degree of macroeconomic dispersion within the Eurozone, the UK and the USA (1999–2019). We use common factor models to produce a single index for each monetary area out of different measures of dispersion. These indices can be used to inform on the degree of optimality of a monetary area. Our results show that macroeconomic dispersion in the Eurozone increased notably even before 2007 and it took significantly longer to return to pre-crisis levels, as compared to the UK and the USA. The paper shows the critical role played by the ECB’s asset purchases programmes in reducing macroeconomic divergences among EMU member states since 2015.     

Impact of Social Service Expenditures on the Suicide Rate: The Cases of Asia Countries

An empirical study reported that the economic crisis in European countries affected their suicide rates and described that an increase in social services expenditures of US$10 per person in labor market programs impacted the decrease in unemployment suicides by 0.038%. However, there has no study that the economic crisis in Asia countries affected their suicide rates. Since 2008, South Korea has been ranked first for suicide rate in the OECD countries. Many studies have blamed the economic crisis that followed from the US financial crisis in 2007 as the critical cause. However, in the case of Japan, the suicide rate decreased in the same time period (2008–2011) even though they faced the same financial crisis. The purpose of this study was to examine why the different situations in Korea and Japan occurred with the economic crisis through testing whether the government’s social service expenditure affects the people’s suicide rate in Asia countries. These efforts will contribute to understanding the critical role of social service.     

Covid-19 and the euthanasia of interest rates: A critical assessment of central bank policy in our times

We compare the New Keynesian and Austrian explanations for low interest rates in the light of the Corona crisis. From a New Keynesian perspective low interest rates are the result of structural changes in the society and the economy as well as the cyclical downswing triggered by the Corona pandemic. In contrast, from the perspective of Austrian economic theory, interest rates have been pushed down on trend by central banks for a long time to stimulate growth, with the global financial crisis of 2007/08 and the Corona crisis of 2020 acting as powerful accelerators of the euthanasia of interest. New Keynesian theory would suggest that interest rates can be adjusted upward again when conditions change, without creating economic and financial disturbances. Against this, Austrian theory finds that central banks have backed themselves into a corner by creating persistent low-interest expectations.     

美欧债务危机应对路径的国际比较研究

美欧发达国家政府的债务危机问题已越来越严重,逐渐引起了包括发展中国家在内的世界各国的广泛关注。面对此次危机,美欧各国都相继采取了各种财政、货币政策措施加以应对,由于各国国情各异,采取的措施和取得的效果也不同。通过分析美欧国家债务危机产生的原因,列举美欧应对危机采取的措施,并对其进行分析比较,得出了主权债务危机给中国发展的几点启示。     

Impact of finance on growth: Does it vary with development levels or cyclical conditions?

Financial systems are complex and may support economic growth differently at various stages of economic development. This study of 90 countries extends the financial development-economic growth literature by using four proxies of financial development (banking, stock market, bond market and insurance), and considering a country’s level of economic development, on both a full and pre-global crisis sample. As expected financial markets have different effects on growth where the level of economic development vary. Policy makers should find that the insurance sector offers the most benefit for economic growth at all levels of development. Stock markets promote growth for middle income countries. Similarly bond markets promote growth with middle and high income countries. Some bond market and stock market results differed in the pre-crisis sample. Policies which promote trade but limit other areas such as inflation, government consumption and crises, should also support growth.     

Debt threshold for fiscal sustainability assessment in emerging economies

This paper explores the debt threshold for fiscal sustainability assessment for 14 emerging economies during the period 1999–2016. The threshold point is identified as the level which, if exceeded, promptly raises sovereign risk to an unsustainable level. As such, we employ a panel threshold analysis to the determination of debt limit, which can serve as a distinctive feature from other studies on fiscal sustainability. Our results demonstrate that non-Latin American economies are considered to be sustainable in the short run, as their debts remain below the threshold bounds of 40–55% of GDP. However, the long-run sustainability risk may emerge from a continuous upward trend in debt paths, implying the need for rebuilding fiscal buffers. It is important to emphasize that fiscal sustainability is far more challenging for most Latin-American economies. This is indicated by their debt accumulation beyond the threshold level of roughly 35% of GDP which is relatively lower than that estimated for the other countries. Indeed, during times of high debt, emerging countries in Latin America also face higher default risk since their sovereign risk premium respond more strongly to debt rise. Their paths toward fiscal sustainability, hence, requires an immediate imposition of strict fiscal discipline to relieve the debt pressure.     

The dynamics among entrepreneurship,innovation, and economic growth in the Eurozone countries

Economic growth in the Eurozone has been lacklustre over the last two decades due to increased global competition from economic players in other regions, economic and financial crisis, and political uncertainties within the zone. To increase the global competitiveness of the region, the European Union launched the Europe 2020 Strategy to raise the level of entrepreneurship and innovation, which are purported to be key drivers of economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this assertion is true. Thus, the paper investigates the Granger causal relationships among entrepreneurship development, innovation, and economic growth for a sample of the Eurozone countries for the period 2001–2016. Using a vector error-correction model, the study finds that in the long run, both entrepreneurship and innovation stimulate economic growth. In the short run, strong causal links exist but are not always uniform. The results reveal that Eurozone countries should indeed base their growth strategies on policies that promote innovation and policies that create incentives for entrepreneurship.     

Monetary transmission: Are emerging market and low-income countries different?

We use the Christensen, Diebold, and Rudebusch (2011) representation of the yield curve to test the functioning of the interest rate transmission mechanism along the yield curve based on government paper in advanced, emerging market, and low-income countries. We find a robust link from the policy and short-term interbank rates to the longer-term bond yields in all countries. Two policy implications emerge. First, the presence of well-developed secondary markets does not seem to affect transmission of short term rates along the yield curve. Second, the strength of the transmission mechanism seems to be affected by the choice of the monetary regime and the level of development: advanced countries with a credible inflation targeting regime seem to have better-behaved yield curves than the countries with other monetary regimes.     

Revisiting the welfare state system in the Republic of Korea

Abstract   The Republic of Korea's welfare system has undergone radical institutional expansion since the 1990s, largely as a consequence of the financial crisis of 1997. In spite of these changes, public social expenditure remains extremely low — particularly with regard to all other OECD countries — with the result that the overall social insurance system and social welfare service sector remain underdeveloped. Thus, the current welfare system can best be characterized as a residual model, in that state intervention as a provider of welfare remains highly limited and the family and the private market economy play the central roles in offering a social safety net. This situation is largely the legacy of the so-called 'growth-first' ideology, which has remained the dominant approach favoured by the majority of the country's political and economic decision-makers since the period of authoritarian rule (1961-1993). The adoption of Western European-style neo-liberal restructuring, implemented following the 1997 financial crisis, has also played a role.     

Transmission of monetary policy in the US and EU in times of expansion and crisis

In this work, the effectiveness of monetary policy and its transmission channels are analyzed before and after the 2007 economic crisis in the United States and the Eurozone by using a VAR model. We find that, in the United States, monetary policy before and after the crisis have been effective, with special emphasis on the “risk channel”. In the Eurozone, monetary policy was also effective before the crisis, being transmitted through the “credit channel”. Once the crisis erupted, unconventional monetary policy remained effective only at the start of the crisis; the risk channel then became the effective transmission mechanism.     

论有效控制理论在南海岛屿主权争端中的运用——基于国际法院裁判案例的分析

近年来,有效控制理论成为国际法院解决领土主权争端的重要国际法依据之一。我国南海部分岛礁被邻国占领虽是事实,但这些国家无法依据有效控制理论取得其非法占领岛礁的领土主权。中国对南海诸岛拥有历史的、无可争辩的主权,且从未放弃或停止行使对南海诸岛的有效管辖。争端国家的占领行为侵犯了中国的主权和领土完整,其针对争议岛屿的所谓"主权行为"是非法的、无效的。我国应当在强化对南海诸岛的历史性权利的同时,通过立法、行政和司法等手段加强对南海诸岛的有效控制,明确我国对南海诸岛的主权。     

Why was the ECB’s reaction to Covid-19 crisis faster than after the 2008 financial crash?

At the time of the financial crises of 2008 and 2010–11 the ECB reacted with an extremely cautious gradualism. This behaviour is attributable to the slower learning process that characterizes a central bank of a monetary union composed of countries with fiscal sovereignty compared to other central banks. In sharp contrast to the previous crises, the ECB reacted promptly to the COVID-19 crisis. This change in behaviour is explained here by the learning process about the effects on monetary policy transmission of the increased financial fragmentation of the eurozone over the last decade.     

How much do OECD countries spend on social protection and how redistributive are their tax/benefit systems?

The global economic crisis has reignited interest in social policy and public spending on different types of social benefits. Public social spending‐to‐GDP ratios are often used to consider the magnitude of welfare systems in international perspective, but such comparisons alone give an incomplete picture of social effort across countries. This article looks at these different factors, before briefly considering the redistributive nature of tax/benefit systems in different member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD). The article also considers trends in social spending and compares spending in the late 2000s with the early 1990s when the previous economic crisis played out. The article ends by illustrating the profound effect the recent global economic crisis had on social spending trends across OECD countries.     

How Slovakia has kept the confidence fairy

Since its creation as a country in 1993, Slovakia's average real growth rate has been not only the highest among Eurozone countries, it has been the highest in the European Union. And unlike most “peripheral” Eurozone countries, most recently (March/April, 2013) Cyprus and Slovenia, it has not suffered from significant capital flight. We provide some clues as to why this is so. In contrast to many of the post-1989 Central and Eastern European (CEE) “transition” economies, as well as the troubled five “GIPSI” countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy), Slovakia has kept unit costs competitive, fostered a sound banking system, and managed its monetary and fiscal policy responsibly. Both public and private debt is relatively low and largely funded from internal savings. In short, Slovakia offers lessons for many CEE countries as well as Eurozone countries struggling to restore internal and external balance.     

Zero Lower Bound and negative interest rates: Choices for monetary policy in the UK

There have been relatively few analyses of the policy context and consequences of a Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) for nominal interest rates. This paper sets out monetary policy alternatives, including negative interest rates, a revision of the inflation target, and rendering unconventional policy instruments such as QE conventional (permanent). Following extensive discussion of policy options, we set out a model that explores the impacts of the real policy rate on economic growth, employment and inflation, with particular attention to the British economy. We use a Time-Varying Structural Vector Auto-regressive (TVSVAR) Model where the sources of time variation are both the coefficients and variance–covariance matrix of the innovations. It was found that real rates have significant implications for real growth, the labour market and price stability even when monetary policy was constrained at the ZLB in nominal terms. The study additionally applies a discrete break in the data to focus on the Post-Global Financial Crisis and ZLB period. This indicates that the effectiveness of real rates did not diminish and this has important implications in terms of a policy approach which seeks to exploit real negative rates.     

Are there monetary clusters in the Eurozone? The impact of ECB policy

This paper analyses what effects the monetary policy of the European Central Bank have on the economic activity of Eurozone countries. We identify groups of countries which exhibit different economic responses to monetary policy and the factors driving such spatial differences. We distinguish three periods, spanning from 2001 to 2017 and examine conventional as well as unconventional monetary policies in different economic backgrounds of expansion and crisis. We find problems of spatially asymmetric transmission of monetary policy in the period 2008M10–2014M12 and note that different spatial responses might operate in favour of monetary policy or be indifferent to this policy.