The cross-impact between financial markets,Covid-19 pandemic,and economic sanctions: The case of Iran

The main financial markets in the Iranian Economy include the stock exchange, foreign exchange, oil, and gold markets. The sharp fluctuations in these markets, especially those caused by the severe sanctions imposed on Iran in May 2018, and the pandemic outbreak of Covid-19 have led to more confusion and uncertainty among investors. One of the effective approaches to examine such unstable conditions is to study the co-movement(s) between markets to identify the leading variable(s). Thus, in the present study, Wavelet Coherence Analysis was applied to examine the co-movements between markets in a time period from September 2014 to June 2020, as an intense period of uncertainty in Iran. In other words, in this study, the markets were investigated in different sub-periods. Also, the Segmented Regression was performed to estimate the impact of sanctions and the Covid-19 pandemic on the co-movements of financial markets in Iran.The results showed that the oil price had a low co-movement with the other three markets, i.e. stock exchange, exchange rate, and gold markets. Thus, the oil market can be a suitable alternative for risk aversion investors. Meanwhile, the oil market could also act as a source of finance for the government during the sanctions period. That possibly explains the recent decision by the Iranian government to use the oil market to finance its budget deficit. Between the exchange rate and gold price, the gold price was identified as the leading variable. While the exchange rate and gold price did not show a significant co-movement in stable conditions, they did show a significant co-movement in unstable conditions, as in times of sanctions or during a global pandemic and thus influenced the investors’ portfolio risk. This result is important from a policy-making perspective. Based on this result, the policymakers can, especially during crises and unstable conditions, control the gold market and make it more stable by managing the foreign exchange market.     

Catastrophic Events,Parameter Uncertainty and the Breakdown of Implicit Long-Term Contracting: The Case of Terrorism Insurance

This paper examines the reaction of the stock prices of U.S. property-casualty insurers to the World Trade Center (WTC) terrorist attack of September 11, 2001. Theories of insurance market equilibrium and theories of long-term contracting predict that large loss events which deplete capital and increase parameter uncertainty will affect weakly capitalized insurers more significantly than stronger firms. The empirical results are consistent with this prediction. Insurance stock prices generally declined following the WTC attack. However, the stock prices of insurers with strong financial ratings rebounded after the first post-event week, while those of weaker insurers did not, consistent with the flight-to-quality hypothesis.     

Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from Tunisia

This paper examined an empirical investigation of whether financial development can boost economic growth in Tunisia. We used an Autoregressive Distributed Lag method to assess the finance-growth relation taking private credit, value traded and issuing bank's securities on the financial market as financial development indicators.The empirical results showed that the domestic credit to private sector has a positive effect on the economic growth suggesting that the financial development is a driver of a long term economic growth, but subject to a financial fragility at the short run. Moreover, this study confirmed the view of bidirectional relationship between credit and economic growth. However, we found that neither the stock market development nor the intervention of banks in the stock market had robust and positive effects on the economic growth. Thus, Tunisia is recommended to accelerate in priority the financial reforms of the Tunisian stock market in order to contribute to mobilize savings and promote long run economic growth.     

The impact of government CSR supporting policies on economic growth

In this paper, we explore the link between socially responsible companies and economic growth across 25 countries during the 2000–2008 period. We extend the growth equation by incorporating corporate social responsibility (CSR) variables and a dummy variable to measure the impact of government CSR-supporting policies. We find that CSR firms are important for economic growth (positively affect growth) and that countries that strongly support CSR achieve higher growth rates. Specifically, countries without an organized and supportive CSR environment and guidelines can hardly expect to increase economy performance through the new growth channels generated by CSR companies (new markets and customers). It is thus important to investigate how CSR companies affect economic growth towards reconsideration of the government's role in CSR promotion as a means to boost economic growth.     

The will to sanction: How sensitive are caseworkers to recipients’ responsibility when imposing sanctions on non-compliance in a welfare-to-work programme?

The activation trend in social policy entails that caseworkers on the frontlines of the welfare state are expected to decide ‘reasonable’ activation requirements for clients and when and how non-compliance should be sanctioned. This study investigates how caseworkers form judgements about their clients’ personal responsibility when activation requirements are violated and how their judgements about responsibility matter for the sanctions they impose. We find that caseworkers are sensitive to personal responsibility, varying the motivation for not fulfilling the activation requirement from a case where the client has less control (circumstances) to one with more control (choice) more than doubles sanctions.     

The Impact of Welfare Reform Policies on Child Protective Services: A National Study

The 1996 welfare reform bill set forth major changes in social welfare policies. In addition to federal work requirements and time limits, new state policies impose behavioral mandates that may be accompanied by financial sanctions for noncompliance. Analysis of a survey of state Child Protection Services (CPS) directors focuses on four major areas: effect of Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) on CPS; interaction between the two agencies; role of TANF sanctions in referrals to CPS; and select special areas of concern. This research provides empirical insight into the interaction between these two agencies, specific TANF sanctions, and the potential conflicts between TANF policies and CPS concerns for the welfare of children and families under its charge.     

The impact of microcredit on small firms in Brazil: A potential to promote investment,growth and inclusion

Over the past decades, microfinance has become a pillar of economic development policies. However, despite the great popularity of micro-credit programs, the results of empirical studies are mixed. Thus, more research is needed to help us understand how effective microfinance is in achieving poverty reduction, economic development, and financial inclusion. This paper contributes to the literature by relying on a unique dataset from one of the biggest Fintech companies in Brazil to study the impact of microcredit on small firms’ outcomes. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find that access to credit increases monthly revenues and profits by nearly 4.5%. We show that the effects are stronger for women-led businesses and less experienced entrepreneurs. In addition, we find that credit renewal strengthens the benefits of credit access. We discuss several policy implications from our results. In particular, the permanent availability of credit – as opposed to one-time/short-term interventions -- has greater potential to generate virtuous cycles of ever more reinvestment and growth, indicating larger gains from relaxing borrowing constraints in the long run.     

The effects of grant policy on technology investment in Italy

This paper investigates the effect of subsidies on the adoption of information and communication technology in Italy. We argue that the important geographical differences between North and South Italy are something that public policy should be concerned of. A matching estimator is used to explore the effects of financial assistance, by comparing the granted with non-granted firms. Our results suggest that public assistance has positive effects on ICT adoption. We also find that firms in the South are more dependent on public grants, and that duality would be more pronounced if subsidies were not given. Furthermore, because firms prefer traditional rather than ICT investment, subsidies should be specifically ICT oriented.     

Punitive welfare reform and claimant mental health: The impact of benefit sanctions on anxiety and depression

Internationally, policymakers assume that sanctioning claimants of unemployment benefits will engender both improved employment outcomes and wider positive effects. A growing evidence‐base challenges these expectations, though additional insight is needed from large‐scale longitudinal research. This article contributes by conducting a quantitative investigation into the mental health impacts of benefit sanctions. To do so, it focuses on a recent period in UK sanctions policy in which rates of sanctions varied markedly and their length was substantially increased. Using quarterly panel data for local authorities in England (Q3 2010–Q4 2014) and fixed effects models that control for important confounders, the analysis provides robust evidence that Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) sanctions lead to increases in self‐reported anxiety and depression. Evidence of this adverse impact is particularly clear following the increase in the length of sanctions in October 2012. The results have important implications for contemporary social security policy, which is underpinned by a similarly punitive sanctions regime. Whilst additional individual‐level research is needed to fully consider the causal relationships in operation, the findings support a precautionary approach that should seek to minimise the harm associated with sanctions. This implies taking steps to reduce both the severity and frequency of applied sanctions.     

Climate change and credit risk: The effect of carbon tax on Italian banks' business loan default rates

Climate change poses severe systemic risks to the financial sector through multiple transmission channels. In this paper, we estimate the potential impact of different carbon taxes (€50, €100, €200 and €800 per ton of CO2) on the Italian banks’ default rates at the sector level in the short term using a counterfactual analysis. We build on the micro-founded climate stress test approach proposed by Faiella et al. (2022), which estimates the energy demand of Italian firms using granular data and simulates the effects of the alternative taxes on the share of financially vulnerable agents (and their debt). Credit risks stemming from the introduction of a carbon tax - during periods of low default rates - are modest for banks: on average, over a one-year horizon, the default rates of firms increase but remain below their historical averages. The effect is heterogeneous across different sectors and rises with the tax value; however, even assuming a tax of €800 per ton of CO2, the default rates are below their historical peaks.     

Taking Financial Relationships into Account When Assessing Research

Many scientific journals, government agencies, and universities require disclosure of sources of funding and financial interests related to research, such as stock ownership, consulting arrangements with companies, and patents. Although disclosure has become one of the central approaches for responding to financial conflicts of interest (COIs) in research, critics contend that information about financial COIs does not serve as a reliable indicator of research credibility, and therefore, studies should be evaluated solely based on their scientific merits. We argue that, while it is indeed important to evaluate studies on their scientific merits, it is often difficult to detect significant influences of financial relationships that affect research credibility. Moreover, at least five factors can be examined to determine whether financial relationships are likely to enhance, undermine, or have no impact on the credibility of research. These include as follows: whether sponsors, institutions, or researchers have a significant financial stake in the outcome of a study; whether the financial interests of the sponsors, institutions, or researchers coincide with the goal of conducting research that is objective and reliable; whether the sponsor, institution, or researchers have a history of biasing research in order to promote their financial goals; how easy it is to manipulate the research in order to achieve financial goals; and whether oversight mechanisms are in place which are designed to minimize bias. Since these factors vary from case to case, evaluating the impact of financial relationships depends on the circumstances. In some situations, one may decide that the financial relationships significantly undermine the study's credibility; in others, one may decide that they have no impact on credibility or even enhance it.     

Lloyd's Financial Distress and Contagion within the US Property and Liability Insurance Industry

The intra-industry effect of Lloyd's financial distress on publicly traded US insurance companies is examined. Given Lloyd's prominence in the international insurance industry, large losses raised questions about the industry's capacity for certain types of risks and the financial solvency of other insurers. The market value of US property-liability insurers fell significantly at the announcement. This decline is related to the firm's revenues from insurance and reinsurance exposure. Results support contagion between Lloyd's distress and the US insurance industry. The study raises concerns about the potential for a systematic disruption of the supply of reinsurance in the international marketplace.     

国有股减持方式比较分析

上市公司的情况千差万别 ,应根据行业特征和不同的股本结构 ,不同的资产质量 ,不同的财务状况分别采取不同的国有股减持方式。主要有 :配售、存量发行、拍卖、协议转让、控股、回购、可转换债券、股权转债权、职工持股减持国有股、普通股变化优先股、票息回构转质等国有股减持方式。     

工资上涨能提升劳动报酬份额吗?——基于要素替代弹性的解释

基于要素替代理论研究工资上涨与劳动报酬份额上升的关系,发现在不同经济状态和发展时期,提升劳动报酬份额不应单纯依赖增加工资.工资水平的上升会导致劳动相对资本要素价格提升,而生产要素相对价格的变动与劳动报酬份额的关系依赖于要素替代弹性水平.从实证角度出发,首先使用上市企业数据测算得到要素替代弹性的数值,检验了要素替代弹性对资本相对价格与劳动报酬份额关系的中介作用.在此基础上,从Hicks提出的要素替代弹性概念内涵中发掘了理论模型,结合中国实证数据分析了要素替代弹性的影响因素.研究发现,2001年至今中国要素替代弹性整体小于1且呈增长趋势,但部分行业存在要素替代弹性大于1的情形,在此状况下提高工资水平会导致劳动报酬份额下降.因此工资上涨并不一定带动劳动报酬份额提升,只有在劳动要素以技能工人为中心、产业结构以非资本密集型为核心的情况下,工资上涨才能拉动劳动报酬份额持续上升.     

The influence of extreme events such as Brexit and Covid-19 on equity markets

In this article first, we show that the result that the PIIGS group had the largest negative unadjusted and abnormal returns on the day following the Brexit Referendum is robust to taking into account jointly other extreme events such as the Covid-19. Second, we provide evidence that the impact of the declaration of Covid-19 to be a global pandemic by the WHO – when global markets fell by nearly 15% – had a total different reaction in the financial markets to the one following the Brexit Referendum, impacting more negatively in countries where quarantine lockdowns were announced that day (i.e. Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Italy and Spain), independently on their debt-to GDP ratio. We also show that the day after Covid-19 was declared as a global pandemic, China and Japan (countries that already implemented lockdowns in the previous months) were the only analyzed countries that did not experience any evidence of abnormal returns in their financial markets. Moreover, during the three following days, the US was the only analyzed country showing no evidence of negative abnormal returns due to the declaration of the national emergency. These results suggest that government policies must take into account and monitor specially health-related news at global level, since they can have enormous impacts on portfolio allocations on stock markets, in order to take more informed decisions.     

Conflicts of interest in academic research: policies, processes, and attitudes

Few studies have examined academic researchers' understandings or attitudes toward conflict of interest policies even though these understandings and attitudes represent a crucial component of both compliance and educational efforts. This study reports the results of a large-scale, cross-sectional survey of research faculty at the nine campuses of the University of California regarding their understandings of and attitudes toward campus conflict of interest policies. We gathered information on their general assessments of investigators with financial ties to industry sponsors and reactions to the process of implementing conflict of interest policies at their respective campuses. We surveyed 1,971 faculty members from the nine-campus University of California system and had 779 responses (39% response rate). The sampled faculty were in the ten departments with the most number of financial disclosures at each campus. We utilized the WebSurveyor software to create a secure, online, 21-item survey. Our study reveals faculty with complex, sometimes contradictory, feelings about academic-industry relationships and highlights perceived gaps in policy and process. Most respondents were concerned about unlimited financial relationships, but a sizable number also viewed campus policies as irrelevant. Some expressed considerable anger over the process of policy implementation, rejecting the policies on the basis of professional and individual self-determination and moral integrity. Our study suggests the need for renewed efforts to encourage awareness of the relevance of conflict of interest policies for all faculty, new efforts to increase understanding of the situational nature of conflicts of interest, and reexamination of the processes of policy implementation at the campus level.     

All that glitters is not gold: Do movie quality and contents influence box-office revenues in China?

Economic policy reform that started in China in early 1980s also affected its movie industry. Like other sectors, movie industry is also not fully liberalized. The industry is required to ensure that movie contents are consistent with core socialist and cultural values and locally produced movies are also financially viable. However, cultural and politically motivated regulation can adversely affect box-office revenues. Using a recently available dataset, which covers the period of 2009–2018, we investigate the box-office performance of Chinese domestic movies. We start by examining the role of movie quality signals (such as star power, internet media evaluation and industry recognition) in our empirical analysis of the relationship between family-friendly content of movies and box-office revenues. We then match the movie contents with its financial performance records. Our novel approach reveals that the explicit sex and profanity in movies have a negative and statistically significant impact on box-office revenues, which confirms the role of cultural values in financial success of motion pictures in China. However, in the case of large-budget movies involving celebrity superstars, the violent and gore (graphic violence) content attracts viewers and hence the box-office revenue increases. Our work highlights the contradictory nature of China’s movie industry policy, which binds the industry to strict cultural and politically motivated regulation while insisting on financial success.     

Conflicts of Interest in Academic Research: Policies,Processes, and Attitudes

Few studies have examined academic researchers' understandings of or attitudes toward conflict of interest policies even though these understandings and attitudes represent a crucial component of both compliance and educational efforts. This study reports the results of a large-scale, cross-sectional survey of research faculty at the nine campuses of the University of California regarding their understandings of and attitudes toward campus conflict of interest policies. We gathered information on their general assessments of investigators with financial ties to industry sponsors and reactions to the process of implementing conflict of interest policies at their respective campuses. We surveyed 1,971 faculty members from the nine-campus University of California system and had 779 responses (39% response rate). The sampled faculty were in the ten departments with the most number of financial disclosures at each campus. We utilized the WebSurveyor software to create a secure, online, 21-item survey. Our study reveals faculty with complex, sometimes contradictory, feelings about academic-industry relationships and highlights perceived gaps in policy and process. Most respondents were concerned about unlimited financial relationships, but a sizable number also viewed campus policies as irrelevant. Some expressed considerable anger over the process of policy implementation, rejecting the policies on the basis of professional and individual self-determination and moral integrity. Our study suggests the need for renewed efforts to encourage awareness of the relevance of conflict of interest policies for all faculty, new efforts to increase understanding of the situational nature of conflicts of interest, and a reexamination of the processes of policy implementation at the campus level.     

Managerial hubris, firm expansion and firm performance: Evidence from China

Examining Chinese publicly traded firms from 2002 to 2005, we find managerial overconfidence to be positively correlated with the rate of firm expansion. In particular, overconfident managers tend to internally expand firms in an aggressive manner. We also find a negative, though not statistically significant, relationship between managerial overconfidence and M&A activity. Lastly, we examine the relationship between managerial overconfidence and firm performance, finding that managerial overconfidence decreases firm profitability due to overinvestment.     

黑龙江省融资存在的问题与对策

黑龙江省上市公司数量少,作用也未得到充分发挥,银行对企业信用评价低.应该对大中型国有企业和老字号的企业进行股份制改造,为企业在主板市场发行股票提供服务;积极扶持上市公司的发展,完善上市公司的法人治理机制;积极为企业在"创业板"市场融资做好准备工作;支持企业在B股市场或境外股市筹集资金;积极建立新型的银企关系.同时,要考虑上市成本问题,慎重选择融资渠道;尽力提高资金的投资效益;正确处理好政府与企业的关系.