评《居民收入分配失衡的测度方法研究》

改革开放30多年来,中国经历了巨大的社会变革,今天已经建立起了新型的有计划的市场经济。伴随着经济、体制和社会的巨大变化,收入不平等、贫困和极化问题开始凸显起来。当中国社会面临这些挑战时,社会关注是不可避免的。洪兴建博士的新作《居民收入分配失衡的测度方法研究》(经济科     

我国通货膨胀的统计分析

 改革开放以来,我国经济实现了持续快速的增长,也经历了四次较为严重的通货膨胀。我国政府在治理通货膨胀中积累了俄丰富的经验,并于1996年成功地实现了宏观经济的“软着陆”,经济发展进入了“高增长,低通胀”的阶段。然而好景不长,一个更加棘手的问题却又悄然来临。增长开始下降,通货出现紧缩。通货紧缩使得企业盈利下降,居民预期收入降低,抑制了投资和消费,从而进一步使得经济增长放慢,失业人数增加。通货紧缩已经成为影响我国经济健康发展的突出问题。对通货治理不当,可能会带来比通货膨胀更加严重的危害。本文在提出通货紧缩的含义和特征后,全面分析了我国通货紧缩的成因,并提出了治理通货紧缩的政策建议。     

全国功能收入分配格局分析

我国功能收入分配格局分析向书坚ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｅｆｕｎｃｔｉｏｎｉｎｃｏｍｅｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｍｅａｎｓｔｈａｔｔｈｅｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｖｅａｃｈｉｅｖｅｍｅｎｔｓａｒｅｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｅｄａｃｃｏｒｄｉｎｇｔｏｔｈｅｒｏｌｅｏｒｃｏｎｔｒ...     

收入分配统计分析中的几个问题

我国的收入分配统计分析,比较薄弱。其原因,一是由于分配问题本身比较复杂,对分配统计分析方法的研究也比较少;二是近十年来国民经济发生了很大变化,一些旧的思想方法束缚了人们对问题的认识,在收入分配统计分析方面存在着不少疑点、难点。现就收入分配统计分析中几个常见的问题,谈一点粗浅的认识。 一、关于超分配的统计分析问题 在商品货币经济条件下,超分配有其发生的可能性和现实性。超分配所反映的是分配环节与生产环节的不协调关系,反映以货币形式表现的分配总量超过以实物形式表现的生产总     

我国居民收入对居民储蓄的影响分析

The paper makes a detailed analysis of the quantitative relationship between the Disposable income and savings of the residents.     

对我国工业劳动力素质的统计分析

新中国成立以来,随着国民生活水平和文化教育水平的提高,随着工业发展自身在人才、技术、经验等方面的逐步积累,工业劳动力素质有了很大的提高,但也存在不少问题。本文试图从工业劳动力的性别结构、年龄结构、文化教育水平、技术水平等四个方面对我国工业劳动力的素质做一描述和分析。     

我国通货膨胀分配效应的定量分析

通货膨胀是货币供应量超过经济运行实际需要的货币量而引起的货币贬值和物价上涨。超量发行的货币投入流通后,参加了生产单位的资金周转,从而也参加了社会总资金的运动。本文试图通过设置经济计量模型和有关的统计指标来分析近年来我国通货膨胀对国民收入的分配和再分配的影响。一、收入流量分配中的通货膨胀效应我们采用的方法是:把总收入分解成两部分,第一部分是按上年价格修正的收入实际值;第二部分是收入名义值与实际值的偏离值,显示为吸纳物价上涨而引发的收入增长。以     

对我国分配核算的几点建议

对我国分配核算的几点建议邱丕群中国国民经济核算体系（ＮＥＡＳ）是以社会再生产过程为对象的全面系统的核算体系，它对社会再生产过程的核算包括生产、分配、交换、消费四个环节的：核算。其中，分配核算是生产核算与消费核算的中间环节，是联结社会生产与最终使用的桥...     

重新构造我国国民分配指标体系的设想

国民经济分配核算(以下简称国民分配核算),作为国民经济核算的重要组成部分,是指包括产品价值流量和金融货币流量在内的社会资金流量分配的核算。我们认为,我国国民分配核算改革的目标模式在现有改革的基础上,至少还需考虑以下两点要求:(1)国民分配指标体系必须满足有计划商品经济条件下间接宏观调控的需要;(2)统一不同系统的分配核算,保证国民分配指标的一体化和协调化。     

对我国现行财政收入统计分析方法的评判（摘登）

财政收入是我国国民经济核算体系的一项重要指标。建立科学合理的财政收入统计评价指标体系 ,则是加强国民经济核算和宏观调控的需要 ,也是评价财政工作优劣的重要依据。长期以来 ,我国对财政收入的统计分析主要基于预算收入法及其以其为基础的财政收入占ＧＤＰ比重。但是 ,就当前我国财政收入的实际情况来看 ,仅仅依靠这种统计分析方法 ,不仅有失偏妥 ,也给各级财政工作带来了被动。这就需要在建立政府财政收入统计方法的基础上 ,构建一套较为科学合理的政府财政收入统计评价指标体系。要对现行财政收入统计分析方法进行探讨 ,首要的前提是…     

Statistical pattern recognition in image analysis

Many tasks in image analysis can be formulated as problems of discrimination or, generally, of pattern recognition. A pattern-recognition system is normally considered to comprise two processing stages: the feature selection and extraction stage, which attempts to reduce the dimensionality of the pattern to be classified, and the classification stage, the purpose of which is to assign the pattern into its perceptually meaningful category. This paper gives an overview of the various approaches to designing statistical pattern recognition schemes. The problem of feature selection and extraction is introduced. The discussion then focuses on statistical decision theoretic rules and their implementation. Both parametric and non-parametric classification methods are covered. The emphasis then switches to decision making in context. Two basic formulations of contextual pattern classification are put forward, and the various methods developed from these two formulations are reviewed. These include the method of hidden Markov chains, the Markov random field approach, Markov meshes, and probabilistic and discrete relaxation.     

Statistical pattern recognition in image analysis

Many tasks in image analysis can be formulated as problems of discrimination or, generally, of pattern recognition. A pattern-recognition system is normally considered to comprise two processing stages: the feature selection and extraction stage, which attempts to reduce the dimensionality of the pattern to be classified, and the classification stage, the purpose of which is to assign the pattern into its perceptually meaningful category. This paper gives an overview of the various approaches to designing statistical pattern recognition schemes. The problem of feature selection and extraction is introduced. The discussion then focuses on statistical decision theoretic rules and their implementation. Both parametric and non-parametric classification methods are covered. The emphasis then switches to decision making in context. Two basic formulations of contextual pattern classification are put forward, and the various methods developed from these two formulations are reviewed. These include the method of hidden Markov chains, the Markov random field approach, Markov meshes, and probabilistic and discrete relaxation.     

Statistical matching and uncertainty analysis in combining household income and expenditure data

Among the goals of statistical matching, a very important one is the estimation of the joint distribution of variables not jointly observed in a sample survey but separately available from independent sample surveys. The absence of joint information on the variables of interest leads to uncertainty about the data generating model since the available sample information is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible joint distributions. In the present paper a short review of the concept of uncertainty in statistical matching under logical constraints, as well as how to measure uncertainty for continuous variables is presented. The notion of matching error is related to an appropriate measure of uncertainty and a criterion of selecting matching variables by choosing the variables minimizing such an uncertainty measure is introduced. Finally, a method to choose a plausible joint distribution for the variables of interest via iterative proportional fitting algorithm is described. The proposed methodology is then applied to household income and expenditure data when extra sample information regarding the average propensity to consume is available. This leads to a reconstructed complete dataset where each record includes measures on income and expenditure.     

中国国民收入流量表研究

 1996年,笔者曾发表一篇名为“国民收入流量表与模型研究”的文章,介于我国当前的核算资料限制,未能运用实际数据对国民收入流量进行分析,随着我国核算资料的完善,目前编制国民收入流量矩阵表的条件已经具备。本文准备用实际数据编制我国简化的国民收入流量表,并找出推算部门间收入流量的方法,最后运用有关模型对数据进行分析。     

Statistical consulting interactions: a personal view

There are several components to every consulting project. The most important ones are the scientific/industrial partners, the background and goals of the project, and data. A statistician has to interact successfully with every component for the project to be a success and an essential step is to encourage the project partners to interact with their own data. There is no better way to ensure that domain knowledge is fully integrated into any analysis. Partners are not always explicit about what they know, about what is possible and about what they want. It is not always clear to them either. Consulting in projects is more of a process than the accomplishment of a task, so continual interaction is needed. Sometimes this is easy, sometimes it is more difficult. This does not always have much to do with the intrinsic difficulty of the subject matter.     

Statistical analysis of middle censored competing risks data with exponential distribution

In this paper, we consider some problems of estimation and reconstruction based on middle censored competing risks data. It is assumed that the lifetime distributions of the latent failure times are independent and exponential distributed with different parameters and also that the censoring mechanism is independent. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the unknown parameters are obtained. We then use the asymptotic distribution of the MLEs to construct approximate confidence intervals. Based on gamma priors, Lindley's approximation method is applied to obtain the Bayesian estimates of the unknown parameters under squared error loss function. Since it is not possible to construct the credible intervals, we propose and implement the Gibbs sampling technique to construct the credible intervals. Several point reconstructors for failure time of censored units are provided. Finally, a simulation study is given by Monte-Carlo simulations to evaluate the performances of the different methods and a data set is analysed to illustrate the proposed procedures.     

Statistical analysis of type I multiply left-censored samples from exponential distribution

Left-censored data with one or more detection limits (DLs) often arise in environmental contexts. The computational procedure for the calculation of maximum likelihood estimators of the parameter for Type I multiply left-censored data from underlying exponential distribution is suggested and used considering various numbers of DLs. The expected Fisher information measure (FIM) is analytically determined and its performance is compared with sample (observed) FIM using simulations. Simulations are focused primarily on the properties of estimators for small sample sizes. Moreover, the simulations follow the possible applications of the results in the statistical analysis of real chemical data.     

《统计研究》与中国国民经济核算

2014年,《统计研究》创刊30周年。30年来,《统计研究》对中国国民经济核算理论研究和实践工作的发展产生了巨大的促进作用,见证了中国国民经济核算的发展历程。本文以《统计研究》创刊30年发表的国民经济核算文章为对象,从实践工作、理论研究、对外展示、人才成长等方面系统总结了《统计研究》对中国国民经济核算的作用。     

Bayesian estimation for the Pareto income distribution

The Bayes estimators of the Gini index, the mean income and the proportion of the population living below a prescribed income level are obtained in this paper on the basis of censored income data from a pareto income distribution. The said estimators are obtained under the assumptions of a two-parameter exponential prior distribution and the usual squared error loss function. This work is also extended to the case when the income data are grouped and the exact incomes for the individuals in the population are not available. The method for the assessment of the hyperparameters is also outlined. Finally, the results are generalized for the doubly truncated gamma prior distribution. Now deceased.     

On moment indeterminacy of the Benini income distribution

The Benini distribution is a lognormal-like distribution generalizing the Pareto distribution. Like the Pareto and the lognormal distributions it was originally proposed for modeling economic size distributions, notably the size distribution of personal income. This paper explores a probabilistic property of the Benini distribution, showing that it is not determined by the sequence of its moments although all the moments are finite. It also provides explicit examples of distributions possessing the same set of moments. Related distributions are briefly explored.