施工项目成本动态测算系统研究

本文根据施工项目成本测算特点,提出利用加权几何平均组合预测模型预测资源价格,确定成本测算基数,同时考虑项目经理部的管理能力和施工中可能遇到的风险,建立施工项目成本动态测算模型,形成较全面的、动态的施工项目成本测算系统.     

信息系统建设项目软件成本估算方法研究

在信息系统项目或电子政务工程建设软件项目和软件预研项目中,软件成本估算是具挑战性也是最重要的环节。软件成本估算问题是困扰各领域对软件成本进行预算控制的难题,本文以提高软件成本估算的精确性为目标,给出了适合当前国内信息系统建设项目或电子政务工程中软件建设项目成本估算的一种方法模型。     

成本测算在投标报价中的应用

本文根据当前建筑市场的发展情况，结合多年的投标及实际施工经验，阐述了投标前成本测算的重要性、成本测算的原则，并且对投标过程中的成本测算方法进行了归纳总结。     

ERP环境下的会计信息系统成本实时监控分析

成本实时监控是确立成本优势的重要措施，ERP环境下会计信息系统成本实时监控的目标是为管理者提供可靠的成本发生数据，辅助成本监控者完成成本监控决策，是对企业整个业务过程中成本控制的监控，它包含成本数据的采集和计算、日成本核算模型和日成本核算差异模型等。[第一段]     

利用Excel快速测算国际贷款融资成本

国际贷款融资成本是指国内企业从国外筹借外汇资金时所付出的代价。企业的实际融资成本只有低于企业资金利润率时,才会获得财务杠杆利益。对国际贷款融资成本进行测算,是国际贷款融资决策的需要,但是,由于国际市场汇率变动频繁,为快速计算国际贷款的融资成本带来了一定的困难。本文拟采用Excel的VBA进行国际贷款的融资成本的快速测算,辅助企业财务人员进行正确的决策,以便企业规避市场风险。一、国际贷款融资成本的测算方法国际贷款融资成本包括企业从国外筹集资金时支付的利息、费用和外币折算差额等。外币借款的成本与借款金额的百分比,…     

以临床路径为基础的单病种成本核算

目的：以临床路径为基础从单病种成本的角度来控制医院医疗成本的上涨。方法：从临床路径入手,合理测算单病种的成本,确定“优化临床路径”,估算各类疾病的优化病种平均成本,控制医院医疗成本的上涨。结果：以临床路径为基础从单病种成本核算可控制医院医疗成本的上涨,对科室成本的数据及各项目成本制定的Excel数据库对于医院数据的收集及修改和推广病种成本测算可发挥积极作用。     

信息系统成本与效益评估方法分析

介绍了信息系统成本与效益评估的几种方法,并且分别讨论了这些方法的优缺点,为投资方在投资信息系统项目时提供有效的参考依据.     

边际约束及成本结构变动下的农村金融改革与发展

边际收益与边际成本配比关系是衡量市场竞争程度的准则。因而,农村金融服务边际成本水平是衡量农村金融市场发展水平和市场化竞争程度的重要标准,也是监管当局基于适度竞争原则制定准入条件的重要依据。本研究围绕这一主题,构建相关农村金融服务成本测算模型,以目前贵州农村金融机构的金融服务成本为研究对象,分别得出了不同类型农村金融机构的单位贷款和存款的服务成本,并进一步分析了成本结构变动与影响的重要因素。以研究结论为基础,提出了农村金融市场化改革的相关政策建议。     

基于自适应免疫遗传算法的企业信息系统适应性优化研究

为了提高企业信息系统的适应性,研究了企业信息系统的适应性优化问题.首先,建立了企业信息系统适应性的指标体系,并基于企业信息系统的形式化表达方法——对象知识网(Object-based Knowledge Mesh),给出了适应性指标的量化方法;其次,建立了企业信息系统适应性的优化模型,并给出了模型的优化算法——自适应免疫遗传算法;最后以销售处理流程为例说明了企业信息系统的适应性指标、优化模型以及算法的应用,验证了其有效性,为提升企业信息系统的适应性奠定基础.     

实施建筑节能标准的宏观经济和环境影响测算模型研究

本文首先对实施建筑节能标准的主要经济和环境影响方面进行系统分析,然后对投入产出局部闭模型进行了改进,并结合数量经济和静态比较的方法,创建了实施建筑节能标准的宏观经济和环境影响测算模型。该模型可以从6个主要方面详细测算实施建筑节能标准对各个产业部门的直接经济影响、直接环境影响、完全经济影响和对GDP的总影响。模型测算结果表明,建筑节能的节能和减排效果显著,同时对GDP有小幅的拉动作用,随着建筑节能标准实施率的增加,它对GDP的拉动强度呈先增后减的趋势。最后根据对测算结果的分析,提出推广实施建筑节能标准的具体方法建议。     

基于神经网络的工程造价快速估算

本文根据神经网络的原理和工程造价估算的特点,建立了基于神经网络的工程造价估算模型;阐述了估算模型的基本原理;并通过住宅建筑估价模型的建立,说明了模型的实现方法且验证了其实用性。     

改进固定工期大中型工程的完工成本估算

传统挣值管理框架内的完工成本估算模型,不能很好适用于工期目标固定的大中型工程。首先,在项目前锋期（t₀）,提出利用进度挣值方法（ES）估算完工工期T₂,以及对于固定工期（T₀）需要压缩的工期（ΔT=T₂-T₀）。然后,采用指数函数模拟时间-费用分阶段凸成本曲线,估算压缩工期的成本。在此基础上,结合Gompertz生长模型（GGM）估算未压缩时的完工成本,提出固定工期大中型工程的完工成本的估算模型。最后,以某机场工程子项目作为案例,分别利用传统挣值法的四种基本估算方法与改进后的挣值管理完工估算方法,对项目完工成本进行估算。横向对比结果发现,改进后的挣值管理完工估算方法具有相对较优性。本研究的成本估算模型改进了传统挣值法对完工成本估算的预测能力,对于进度为主要目标的中国大中型工程具有较强的实践指导意义。     

A multiple criteria decision-making model for justifying the acceptance of rush orders

Rush orders are immediate customer demands that exceed the expectation of a currently effective MPS (master production schedule). Decision-makers are often hesitant in the decision of accepting such orders. This paper presents a multiple criteria decision-making model for justifying the acceptance of rush orders for an assembly-to-order production system. Four criteria or production objectives are simultaneously considered and a multiple objective programming technique, the e-constraints approach, is adopted to solve the decision-making problem. This model could give the cost estimation for producing a rush order under various combinations of production objectives. The computed cost value could serve as a valuable reference for justifying the economics of accepting the rush order, and help to determine its pricing strategy.     

A Structural Evaluation of a Large‐Scale Quasi‐Experimental Microfinance Initiative

This paper uses a structural model to understand, predict, and evaluate the impact of an exogenous microcredit intervention program, the Thai Million Baht Village Fund program. We model household decisions in the face of borrowing constraints, income uncertainty, and high‐yield indivisible investment opportunities. After estimation of parameters using preprogram data, we evaluate the model's ability to predict and interpret the impact of the village fund intervention. Simulations from the model mirror the data in yielding a greater increase in consumption than credit, which is interpreted as evidence of credit constraints. A cost–benefit analysis using the model indicates that some households value the program much more than its per household cost, but overall the program costs 30 percent more than the sum of these benefits.     

Burn-in Time and Estimation of Change-Point with Weibull-Exponential Mixture Distribution*

Many industrial products have three phases in their product lives: infant-mortality, normal, and wear-out phases. In the infant-mortality phase, the failure rate is high, but decreasing; in the normal phase, the failure rate remains constant; and in the wear-out phase, the failure rate is increasing. A burn-in procedure may be used to reduce early failures before shipping a product to consumers. A cost model is formulated to find the optimal burn-in time, which minimizes the expected sum of manufacturing cost, burn-in cost, and warranty cost incurred by failed items found during the warranty period. A mixture of Weibull hyperexponential distribution with shape parameter less than one and exponential distribution is used to describe the infant-mortality and the normal phases of the product life. The product under consideration can be either repairable or non-repairable. When the change-point of the product life distribution is unknown, it is estimated by using the maximum-likelihood estimation method. The effects of sample size on estimation error and the performance of the model are studied, and a sensitivity analysis is performed to study the effects of several parameters of the W-E distribution and costs on the optimal burn-in time.     

Corporate valuation using imprecise cost of capital

If the estimated cost of capital bears a standard error, the estimation remains imprecise and firm values are biased on average, even though the estimator of the cost of capital is unbiased. Literature contributes approaches using adjusted discount factors to correct for such biases. This paper examines the theoretical and practical problems arising from the use of these approaches which are most likely to occur in the context of terminal value estimation. The adjusted discount factors imply time-dependent discount rates. Therefore, the commonly used valuation formula for perpetuities (Gordon formula) is no longer suitable to estimate unbiased terminal values. To continue application of this formula, this paper derives a new formula to directly adjust the cost of capital for estimation errors which yields unbiased terminal values.     

Optimal Cost Sampling for Decision Making with Multiple Regression Models

This paper develops an explicit relationship between sample size, sampling error, and related costs for the application of multiple regression models in observational studies. Graphs and formulas for determining optimal sample sizes and related factors are provided to facilitate the application of the derived models. These graphs reveal that, in most cases, the imprecision of estimates and minimum total cost are relatively insensitive to increases in sample size beyond n=20. Because of the intrinsic variation of the regression model, even if larger samples are optimal, the relative change in the total cost function is small when the cost of imprecision is a quadratic function. A model-utility approach, however, may impose a lower bound on sample size that requires the sample size be larger than indicated by the estimation or cost-minimization approaches. Graphs are provided to illustrate lower-bound conditions on sample size. Optimal sample size in view of all considerations is obtained by the maximin criterion, the maximum of the minimum sample size for all approaches.     

Lowering Inventory Systems Costs by Using Regression-Derived Estimators of Demand Variability*

Scientific techniques for inventory management typically are applied to systems containing many items. Such techniques require an estimation of the demand variance (and mean) of each item from historical data. This research demonstrates a significant potential for improvement in system cost performance from using least-squares regression fits of a variance-to-mean functional relation instead of the standard statistical variance estimate. Even when there is a moderate degree of heterogeneity among items and when the form of the variance-to-mean relation is misspecified, substantial cost savings may be realized. The cost of statistical uncertainty may be reduced by half. The research also provides evidence that system cost is fairly insensitive to the number of items used to fit the regression. This paper provides the underlying reason why a regression-derived variance estimator yields lower cost: it is less variable than the usual individual item variance estimator.     

WARRANTY COST ESTIMATION: A GOAL PROGRAMMING APPROACH

This paper proposes a goal programming approach to the warranty cost estimation problem. Past research on this topic has mostly dealt with a single objective—the minimization of the warranty reserve cost or the maximization of profit. A more realistic approach to warranty cost problems could, however, involve several goals, some of which might be conflicting to others. In this paper, three goals are prioritized. The goals considered are minimization of warranty reserve cost per unit, offering a minimum level of warranty time based on an allowable proportion of failures within the warranty period, and capturing a minimum specified market share of the product. An example is illustrated using the proposed formulation, and goal achievements are discussed.     

套期保值, 估计风险与贝叶斯统计——基于中国铜期货市场的经验研究

针对期货最优套期保值策略估计中可能存在的估计风险问题,本文对单变量线性回归模型(OLS模型)和多变量线性回归模型(VAR模型和EC-VAR模型)进行贝叶斯分析,并采用Gibbs抽样方法对中国铜期货市场的最优套期保值策略进行了实证分析。本文还同时估计了基于频率统计方法的最优套期保值策略,并对贝叶斯统计下和频率统计下的最优套期保值策略进行了分析比较。实证结果清楚表明,估计风险对模型结果有重要影响。在处理估计风险方面,贝叶斯统计较频率统计方法有明显优势。