Ancient practice . . . current conflict. (Abortion)

A brief overview of abortion as a legal and social issue with emphasis on controversial factors is presented. The author notes that abortion involves moral codes and medical developments which are obscured by polarized rhetoric. This editorial is an introduction to a Population Bulletin issue examining abortion from several viewpoints.     

An econometric analysis of the U.S. postwar G.N.P.

Whilst most developed countries have experienced stable economic conditions during the postwar period, the acceptance of the unit root null hypothesis implies wild fluctuations in the major economic variables over time. This paper investigates the sensitivity of the decisions to accept the unit root hypothesis to the specification of the trends underlying the U.S. postwar GNP and other macro-variables. In particular, the relationship between the nominal GNP and the resident population is found to be a non-linear one. The unit root null hypothesis can be firmly rejected when the conditional mean of the nominal GNP series is represented by a quadratic trend variable and the assumptions that changes in the price level and the resident population lead to equiproportionate changes in the GNP are not enforced on the data. The case of quarterly observations is also investigated for seasonally unadjusted and adjusted data.The author is indebted to two anonymous referees and the Managing Editor for helpful comments.     

Correlates of divorce in the U.S.S.R.

The theoretical rationale of this study is that conditions associated with divorce reside outside the family within a broader social system where the family finds itself located. The absence of major differences in divorce law from one place to another within the Soviet Union makes it possible to explore this hypothesis by examining areal differentials in divorce rates. Crude divorce rates and crude marriage rates for 1960 have been published in Vestnik Statistiki for 109 political-administrative areas in the Soviet Union. Several indicators of modernization are available for the same areas from the 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population. About 80 per cent of the variation among areas with respect to the crude divorce rate is accounted for by six variables: the crude marriage rate, the percentage of urban population, and the employee-worker ratio in the labor force, each of which is positively associated with the divorce rate; and the proportion of poorly educated women, the ratio of children to adult males, and the mean household-family size, each of which is negatively associated with the divorce rate.     

A rejoinder to S. K. Datta and J. B. Nugent

Abstract Extract The question of old-age security as a motivation for fertility in less-developed rural areas can be put in clearer perspective by pausing to consider the changing roles of land and offspring under the influence of fundamental demographic upheaval. Under the pre-transition regime, one generation approximately replaced the preceding one, particularly once unused but usable land became scarce and the possibility of expanding farm operations became remote. Judging from the settlement patterns and the history of the Maharashtrian study area, such a circumstance probably obtained long before the secular drop in mortality began. During this period, a single son, typically, would survive to adulthood, gradually assuming control of the father's land (or the father's trade, among non-agriculturalists) and, if the father lived long enough, would eventually be a source of security in the father's old age. It is not inappropriate to mention that this generational cycle no doubt fostered a strong urge to leave the family land to a son, so that a sonless farmer would keenly feel a lack of fulfilment. In fact, responses to certain survey questions suggest that ancestral land and male progeny are still somehow connected, according to the way village men think, to their sense of immortality. It would be hard, consequently, to separate old-age security, the idea of 'continuing a lineage', and the sense of immortality conferred by owning land into distinct motives for conceiving children.     

A rejoinder to S. K. Datta and J. B. Nugent

Extract

The question of old-age security as a motivation for fertility in less-developed rural areas can be put in clearer perspective by pausing to consider the changing roles of land and offspring under the influence of fundamental demographic upheaval. Under the pre-transition regime, one generation approximately replaced the preceding one, particularly once unused but usable land became scarce and the possibility of expanding farm operations became remote. Judging from the settlement patterns and the history of the Maharashtrian study area, such a circumstance probably obtained long before the secular drop in mortality began. During this period, a single son, typically, would survive to adulthood, gradually assuming control of the father's land (or the father's trade, among non-agriculturalists) and, if the father lived long enough, would eventually be a source of security in the father's old age. It is not inappropriate to mention that this generational cycle no doubt fostered a strong urge to leave the family land to a son, so that a sonless farmer would keenly feel a lack of fulfilment. In fact, responses to certain survey questions suggest that ancestral land and male progeny are still somehow connected, according to the way village men think, to their sense of immortality. It would be hard, consequently, to separate old-age security, the idea of ‘continuing a lineage’, and the sense of immortality conferred by owning land into distinct motives for conceiving children.     

The status of women in the rural U.S.S.R.

Degree of sex equality in rural areas of the U.S.S.R. is assessed with reference to a multi-variable model which specifies demographic, technological, social, and ideological factors associated with sex stratification. Such analysis reveals that the emphasis in the U.S.S.R. on women's participation in production as the key to sex equality ignores other dimensions of sex stratification which are not changed using this tactic. In particular, rural traditions of higher birth rates, more authoritarian families, greater religious emphasis, and male scorn for women have kept the status of rural women even lower than that of their urban counterparts. Additionally, the agrarian techno-economic base and lack of institutional supports for childcare and housework help perpetuate sex stratification. Increasing sex differentiation is probably in store for the Soviet Union, because official pronatalist policies are likely to be facilitated by expanding the service sector, which will further increase the division of labor in the market.     

Book Review: The Ultimate Resource 2. Julian L. Simon. Princeton,NJ: University Press. 1996. pp. 734

Population and Environment -     

美国农村人口迁移与启示

美国农村人口迁移始于 2 0世纪 2 0年代 ,结束于 6 0年代 ,均为自发性的移民。其农村人口迁移具有阶段性 ,第一阶段主要是迁往大城市 ,且具有较高文化层次的选择性 ,第二阶段移民则不具有文化选择性 ,移民规模与非农经济发展呈正相关关系 ,移民迁出地与迁入地的距离与移民规模也是呈正相关。美国农村人口迁移的经验 ,对我国农村人口迁移有一定启示。     

In memoriam Julius Morel (17. 12. 1927–30. 9. 2003)

Ohne Zusammenfassung