Repeated Games with Differential Time Preferences

When players have identical time preferences, the set of feasible repeated game payoffs coincides with the convex hull of the underlying stage- game payoffs. Moreover, all feasible and individually rational payoffs can be sustained by equilibria if the players are sufficiently patient. Neither of these facts generalizes to the case of different time preferences. First, players can mutually benefit from trading payoffs across time. Hence, the set of feasible repeated game payoffs is typically larger than the convex hull of the underlying stage-game payoffs. Second, it is not usually the case that every trade plan that guarantees individually rational payoffs can be sustained by an equilibrium, no matter how patient the players are. This paper provides a simple characterization of the sets of Nash and of subgame perfect equilibrium payoffs in two-player repeated games.     

Axiomatic Equilibrium Selection for Generic Two‐Player Games

For a finite game with perfect recall, a refinement of its set of Nash equilibria selects closed connected subsets, called solutions. Assume that each solution's equilibria use undominated strategies and some of its equilibria are quasi‐perfect, and that all solutions are immune to presentation effects; namely, if the game is embedded in a larger game with more pure strategies and more players such that the original players' feasible mixed strategies and expected payoffs are preserved regardless of what other players do, then the larger game's solutions project to the original game's solutions. Then, for a game with two players and generic payoffs, each solution is an essential component of the set of equilibria that use undominated strategies, and thus a stable set of equilibria as defined by Mertens (1989).     

Fast Equilibrium Selection by Rational Players Living in a Changing World

We study a coordination game with randomly changing payoffs and small frictions in changing actions. Using only backwards induction, we find that players must coordinate on the risk‐dominant equilibrium. More precisely, a continuum of fully rational players are randomly matched to play a symmetric 2×2 game. The payoff matrix changes according to a random walk. Players observe these payoffs and the population distribution of actions as they evolve. The game has frictions: opportunities to change strategies arrive from independent random processes, so that the players are locked into their actions for some time. As the frictions disappear, each player ignores what the others are doing and switches at her first opportunity to the risk‐dominant action. History dependence emerges in some cases when frictions remain positive.     

Linear programming approach to solve interval-valued matrix games

Matrix game theory is concerned with how two players make decisions when they are faced with known exact payoffs. The aim of this paper is to develop a simple and an effective linear programming method for solving matrix games in which the payoffs are expressed with intervals. Because the payoffs of the matrix game are intervals, the value of the matrix game is an interval as well. Based on the definition of the value for matrix games, the value of the matrix game may be regarded as a function of values in the payoff intervals, which is proven to be non-decreasing. A pair of auxiliary linear programming models is formulated to obtain the upper bound and the lower bound of the value of the interval-valued matrix game by using the upper bounds and the lower bounds of the payoff intervals, respectively. By the duality theorem of linear programming, it is proven that two players have the identical interval-type value of the interval-valued matrix game. Also it is proven that the linear programming models and method proposed in this paper extend those of the classical matrix games. The linear programming method proposed in this paper is demonstrated with a real investment decision example and compared with other similar methods to show the validity, applicability and superiority.     

Bargaining,Reputation, and Equilibrium Selection in Repeated Games with Contracts

Consider a two‐person intertemporal bargaining problem in which players choose actions and offers each period, and collect payoffs (as a function of that period's actions) while bargaining proceeds. This can alternatively be viewed as an infinitely repeated game wherein players can offer one another enforceable contracts that govern play for the rest of the game. Theory is silent with regard to how the surplus is likely to be split, because a folk theorem applies. Perturbing such a game with a rich set of behavioral types for each player yields a specific asymptotic prediction for how the surplus will be divided, as the perturbation probabilities approach zero. Behavioral types may follow nonstationary strategies and respond to the opponent's play. In equilibrium, rational players initially choose a behavioral type to imitate and a war of attrition ensues. How much should a player try to get and how should she behave while waiting for the resolution of bargaining? In both respects she should build her strategy around the advice given by the “Nash bargaining with threats” (NBWT) theory developed for two‐stage games. In any perfect Bayesian equilibrium, she can guarantee herself virtually her NBWT payoff by imitating a behavioral type with the following simple strategy: in every period, ask for (and accept nothing less than) that player's NBWT share and, while waiting for the other side to concede, take the action Nash recommends as a threat in his two‐stage game. The results suggest that there are forces at work in some dynamic games that favor certain payoffs over all others. This is in stark contrast to the classic folk theorems, to the further folk theorems established for repeated games with two‐sided reputational perturbations, and to the permissive results obtained in the literature on bargaining with payoffs as you go.     

Strategic Experimentation with Exponential Bandits

We analyze a game of strategic experimentation with two‐armed bandits whose risky arm might yield payoffs after exponentially distributed random times. Free‐riding causes an inefficiently low level of experimentation in any equilibrium where the players use stationary Markovian strategies with beliefs as the state variable. We construct the unique symmetric Markovian equilibrium of the game, followed by various asymmetric ones. There is no equilibrium where all players use simple cut‐off strategies. Equilibria where players switch finitely often between experimenting and free‐riding all yield a similar pattern of information acquisition, greater efficiency being achieved when the players share the burden of experimentation more equitably. When players switch roles infinitely often, they can acquire an approximately efficient amount of information, but still at an inefficient rate. In terms of aggregate payoffs, all these asymmetric equilibria dominate the symmetric one wherever the latter prescribes simultaneous use of both arms.     

Formalizing the Precautionary Principle Accounting for Strategic Interaction,Natural Factors,and Technological Factors

Four dimensions of the precautionary principle (PP), involving threat, uncertainty, action, and command, are formalized at the level of set theory and the level of individual players and natural and technological factors. Flow and decision diagrams with a feedback loop are developed to open up a new research agenda. The role of strategic interaction and games in the PP is underdeveloped or nonexistent in today's literature. To rectify this deficiency, six kinds of games are identified in the four PP dimensions. The games can be interlinked since player sets can overlap. Characteristics are illustrated. Accounting for strategic interaction, the article illustrates uncertainty in the PP regarding which game is played, which players participate in which game, strategy sets, payoffs, incomplete information, risk attitudes, and bounded rationality. The insurance and lottery games analyzed earlier for the safe minimum standard (SMS) for species extinction are revisited and placed into a broader context illustrating strategic interaction. Uncertainty about payoffs illustrates transformations back and forth between the chicken game, battle of the sexes, assurance game, and prisoner's dilemma.     

LIQUIDITY AND CONTAGION: THE CRISIS OF 1763

The financial crisis that swept across northern Europe in 1763 bears a strong resemblance to more recent episodes of financial distress. The combination of the specific contractual arrangements at the time, interlocking credit relationships, and the high leverage of market participants triggered distress sales of assets, leading to a severe liquidity crisis. Hence, the crisis is an early instance of contagion on the asset side of the balance sheet. We highlight the salient features of the 1763 crisis and propose a stylized model of the events. While the financial institutions have changed fundamentally in the intervening 200 or so years, the underlying problems appear to be universal. (JEL: 6621, E44, N23)     

The 2007 financial crisis: strategic actors and processes of construction of a concrete system

The recent financial and economic crisis, defined “a once in a century credit tsunami” by former President of Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, has produced relevant damages in all economic sectors, making many people much poorer. For this reason, many scientific contributions have addressed the causes of the crisis, focusing mostly on the ‘bad practices’ in lending and credit securitization procedures as well as in corporate governance mechanisms ruling the banking system. Our work is based on an organizational perspective and it reviews the crisis under a theoretical model that combines the political and new institutionalist studies, in order to show evidence of the intense network of relationships and interests underlying the financial system government. In doing so, we identify the key players acting as institutional entrepreneurs that, levering on their resources and power, have contributed to construct and reshape the institutional framework—normative and symbolic—ruling the so called Great Moderation period.     

Competition for a Majority

We define the class of two‐player zero‐sum games with payoffs having mild discontinuities, which in applications typically stem from how ties are resolved. For such games, we establish sufficient conditions for existence of a value of the game, maximin and minimax strategies for the players, and a Nash equilibrium. If all discontinuities favor one player, then a value exists and that player has a maximin strategy. A property called payoff approachability implies existence of an equilibrium, and that the resulting value is invariant: games with the same payoffs at points of continuity have the same value and ɛ‐equilibria. For voting games in which two candidates propose policies and a candidate wins election if a weighted majority of voters prefer his proposed policy, we provide tie‐breaking rules and assumptions about voters' preferences sufficient to imply payoff approachability. These assumptions are satisfied by generic preferences if the dimension of the space of policies exceeds the number of voters; or with no dimensional restriction, if the electorate is sufficiently large. Each Colonel Blotto game is a special case in which each candidate allocates a resource among several constituencies and a candidate gets votes from those allocated more than his opponent offers; in this case, for simple‐majority rule we prove existence of an equilibrium with zero probability of ties.     

Optimal Use of Communication Resources

We study a repeated game with asymmetric information about a dynamic state of nature. In the course of the game, the better‐informed player can communicate some or all of his information to the other. Our model covers costly and/or bounded communication. We characterize the set of equilibrium payoffs and contrast these with the communication equilibrium payoffs, which by definition entail no communication costs.     

公司治理于财务困难公司效果之研究

美国Enron案发生后,为维护资本市场安定与保护投资大众,各国均致力提倡公司治理,如强化董监结构、股权结构与提升透明度等。然而,在主管机关与公司管理当局均认为企业公司治理机制已有显著的强化后,台湾企业诸如博达、讯碟等公司仍然持续爆发弊案。因此,治理政策是否确实落实执行于各企业,值得深入探讨。因此,本研究拟以财务危机公司的公司治理机制及其影响为探讨重点。首先了解公司爆发财务危机前的公司治理运作情形,进而讨论在发生财务危机后,采用各项公司治理机制是否对提升公司财务状况有所帮助,提供主管机关及投资人决策之分析。实证结果显示,董监事持股,控制股东担任董事监察人、专业经理人担任董事席位数、董事会规模这三项皆可做为投资人投资公司的参考,及财务危机公司是否能转危为安的判断依据。     

Productivity,performance and project management in the scientific instrument industry

Scientific instruments have short product lifecycles and a lengthening of the time between design and application has serious financial implications. This paper reports on research aimed at obtaining a greater understanding of the factors which influence this interface. Interviews were conducted at 32 companies in two countries, the United Kingdom (UK) and the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG). The study showed that there are statistically significant differences between the two countries and that in the FRG there are also differences between projects led by people with different qualifications and background experience. These differences are analysed and discussed and factors identified which influence productivity and performance in the scientific instrument industry.     

Experientia Docet: Professionals Play Minimax in Laboratory Experiments

We study how professional players and college students play zero‐sum two‐person strategic games in a laboratory setting. We first ask professionals to play a 2 × 2 game that is formally identical to a strategic interaction situation that they face in their natural environment. Consistent with their behavior in the field, they play very close to the equilibrium of the game. In particular, (i) they equate their strategies' payoffs to the equilibrium ones and (ii) they generate sequences of choices that are serially independent. In sharp contrast, however, we find that college students play the game far from the equilibrium predictions. We then study the behavior of professional players and college students in the classic O'Neill 4 × 4 zero‐sum game, a game that none of the subjects has encountered previously, and find the same differences in the behavior of these two pools of subjects. The transfer of skills and experience from the familiar field to the unfamiliar laboratory observed for professional players is relevant to evaluate the circumstances under which behavior in a laboratory setting may be a reliable indicator of behavior in a naturally occurring setting. From a cognitive perspective, it is useful for research on recognition processes, intuition, and similarity as a basis for inductive reasoning.     

RISK AVERSION AND EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY: AN EXPERIMENT WITH LARGE AND SMALL STAKES

We employ a novel data set to estimate a structural econometric model of the decisions under risk of players in a game show where lotteries present payoffs in excess of half a million dollars. The decisions under risk of players in the presence of large payoffs allow us to estimate the parameters of the curvature of the von Neumann–Morgenstern utility function—not only locally, as in previous studies in the literature, but also globally. Our estimates of relative risk aversion indicate that a constant relative risk aversion parameter of about 1 captures the average of the sample population. We also find that individuals are practically risk neutral at small stakes and risk averse at large stakes—a necessary condition, according to Rabin’s calibration theorem, for expected utility to provide a unified account of individuals’ attitudes toward risk. Finally, we show that for lotteries characterized by substantial stakes, nonexpected utility theories fit the data equally as well as expected utility theory.     

四方控制权制衡、自由现金流量与过度投资行为

目前关于过度投资的研究主要集中在债务融资对过度投资行为的影响上,关于公司控制权制衡与过度投资行为关系的研究基本还是空白。本文通过对自由现金流量和过度投资行为的进一步分析,从控制权制衡角度出发,构建以股东、董事会、监事会和债权人四方为主的过度投资行为制衡模型,研究我国上市公司控制权制衡、自由现金流量与过度投资行为之间的关系。     

The impact of corporate governance on auditor choice: evidence from Germany

Statutory audits are only beneficial if the appropriate audit quality is both provided and perceived by the users of audited financial statements. On the one hand, Big 4 audit firms are commonly viewed as producing high quality audits. On the other hand, regulators complain about the high market share of Big 4 audit firms. In this context, it is of interest to examine the drivers of a Big 4 audit firm selection. Despite extensive prior research, there is still a lack of findings form Continental European countries and on the impact of corporate governance on auditor choice. This paper on hand is intended to fill the related research gap. Thus, our study identifies variables that determine the auditor choice of large German listed companies. Based on a sample of 432 firm-year observations for the period 2010–2014, our logistic regression analysis suggests that the corporate governance structure influences auditor choice significantly. Notably, the annual meeting frequency of the audit committee and the size of the supervisory board are positively associated with the engagement of a Big 4 audit firm. However, the meeting frequency of the supervisory board and the compliance to the German corporate governance code are negatively related to the choice of a Big 4 auditor. Additionally, the proportion of female supervisory board members does not exert a significant impact. The results remain stable when the DAX30 observations, for which statutory audits are exclusively performed by Big 4 audit firms, are excluded. The main contribution of our paper is, that it sheds light on the impact of corporate governance variables not analyzed by prior research, like supervisory board characteristics, deviations from a corporate governance code, or the female quota, in a Continental European setting, and that it mainly indicates a complementary relationship. Despite the peculiarities of the German setting, the two-tier corporate governance system and the low level of investor protection, the findings of our study are not only relevant for Germany, since many other Continental European countries are characterized by a similar environment. The study’s findings are of particular interest for regulators when addressing audit market structure problems.     

Industrial Relations in West Germany, 1980-1987

ABSTRACT: The paper describes the structure and state of industrial relations in the Federal Republic of Germany and discusses perspectives and problems of their future development. Its composition follows the syllabus of an internationally comparative research project.     

Double Trouble: Sibling Rivalry and Twin Organizations in the 2008 Credit Crisis

The purpose of this paper is to introduce and explore the novel idea of highly similar ‘twin organizations’. Drawing on psychoanalytic theory in his formulation, the author argues that the closeness of organizational identities in twin organizations may lead to increased rivalry, narcissism and a tendency for greater risk‐taking and vulnerability. Four of the biggest casualties of the 2008 credit crisis – two UK banks (HBOS and RBS) and two large US financial institutions (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) – are used to illustrate this conceptual development. The contribution of this paper is fivefold. First, this paper contributes the theoretical innovation of the idea of twin organizations to the organization studies literature. Second, it casts a fresh light on four of the organizations that got most deeply into trouble in the credit crisis. Third, it contributes to other areas of organizational scholarship, specifically the theory of risk and the theory of organizational identity. Fourth, this paper acts as a warning by identifying similar phenomena in the ongoing Eurozone crisis, and fifth, it contributes to the understanding of risk‐management practice and organizational consultancy.     

现代公司治理结构与会计舞弊关系的实证研究

本文以我国证券交易所成立至2003年12月31日期间被证监会公开查处的财务报告舞弊的上市公司为样本,比较全面地选取了分别代表公司治理结构中董事会特征、监事会特征、经理层特征、股权结构等方面的14个指标对公司治理结构与会计舞弊之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果发现内部人控制度、国家股比例、股权制衡度与财务报告舞弊显著正相关,法人股比例、股权集中度、高级管理层持股比例与财务报告舞弊显著负相关。