吉林省基层人口和计划生育工作干部队伍建设的现状、问题和对策

根据2006年对吉林省、市(州)及基层人口和计划生育干部进行的调查,对人口和计划生育干部的数量、年龄、学历、政策水平等进行研究。为全面准确地掌握吉林省、市(州)及基层人口和计划生育干部队伍建设的情况,增强全省人口和计划生育系统干部队伍培养的针对性,更好地完成新时期人口和计生工作任务提供了有效依据。     

Stability and Change of the Quality of Working Life in Restructuring Municipalities

Social Indicators Research - Local government in Finland has undergone considerable restructuring since 2005 as a number of new larger municipalities (mergers) and partnership areas between social...     

Does Municipal Socioeconomic Development Affect Public Perceptions of Crime? A Multilevel Logistic Regression Analysis

Chile is considered as one of the safest countries in Latin America, with a below-the-average world crime rate. However, during the last few decades, the country has experienced a deterioration in public perceptions of safety. This paper investigates public perceptions of crime in the 52 municipalities of the metropolitan area of Santiago, by employing an index of socioeconomic development for each municipality. Multilevel logistic regression analysis is used in order to assess the impact of individual and municipal-level variables on perceptions of crime in these municipalities. The results show that women exhibit higher perceptions of crime, while people living in rural areas, inactive people, and people with higher education and income have generally lower perceptions. Multidimensional poverty is positively associated with high perceptions of crime, while municipal spending on health and/or education does not show a relationship with perceptions of crime. Regarding socioeconomic development level of municipalities, the results show that people living in municipalities of high development show the lowest perceptions of crime, despite the fact that these municipalities do actually exhibit the highest crime rates, a fact confirming the ‘perception gap’ and the ‘neighbourhood favouritism’ theories. The results and conclusions of this study can be used not only by local policy-makers but also by officials in other cities that—like Santiago—are characterised by high urban segregation.     

Public primary health care and children’s health in Brazil: evidence from siblings

The Family Health Program (Programa Saúde da Família) is an initiative of the Brazilian Ministry of Health designed to deliver free primary health care services within communities and households. The program was implemented by municipalities in different periods of time, creating variation in its availability among siblings of different ages. The empirical approach uses this variation to estimate the effect of the program on children’s health in Brazil, in an attempt to control for family and municipality unobserved factors possibly related to the program’s adoption. The results indicate that children for whom the Family Health Program was available in their municipalities during the prenatal period are healthier than children for whom the program was not available during the same period of their lives.     

地方社会保障的财政责任与经济发展关系的研究——基于我国31个省（市、自治区）面板数据分析

社会保障是一项社会公益事业,政府必须承担必要的财政责任。社会保障支出作为财政支出的一部分,给各地方财政造成了一定的负担。目前我国不同省（市、自治区）的经济发展水平不均衡,而社会保障支出的财政负担情况也有较大差异,并且两者都随时间的变化而有所改变。为了考察两者之间的关系,本文利用Eviews软件对1998—2008年我国31个省（市、自治区）的面板数据进行回归建模,从而发现其中的规律。     

A DEA Approach to Measure the Quality-of-Life in the Municipalities of the Canary Islands

The notion of the quality of life has always intrigued economists, sociologists and other researchers in the area of social science. Since the genesis of the definition of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a truthful measure of well-being and economic development, other sophisticated methodologies have been proposed in the literature to measure the quality-of-life (QOL) that extend in a multidimensional way this complex concept. Measuring QOL in municipalities consists in finding a set of comparable attributes that can be weighted by some metric in order to construct a synthetic index. Thus, the narrow vision obtained by a single measure as the GDP, in which differences in the QOL cannot be fully analyzed, is overcome. Based upon a refinement of data envelopment analysis (DEA)—the cross-efficiency method, the current paper develops a synthetic QOL index that is based in 19 partial indicators which present the tradeoffs of different dimension for the 87 municipalities of the Canary Islands in Spain. Marginal rates of substitution are calculated to evaluate the tradeoffs on QOL dimensions. A method is also proposed to determine the scores chart of each municipality which can be used as a tool to policy makers in order to establish a program of improving the ranking position of the municipality identifying the critical QOL factors.     

“Minami准则”下的刘易斯转折点研究

民工荒在全国继续蔓延,引起学界关于中国刘易斯转折点是否到来的争论,准确判断中国的刘易斯转折点是否到来对于政策制定非常重要。文章收集了中国1990～2009年31个省份的面板数据,运用拓展的Minami准则对中国刘易斯转折点进行了实证研究,结果表明,中国经济已经越过了刘易斯第一转折点,但没有充分的理由表明中国进入了刘易斯第二转折点。     

Is Local Financial Health Associated with Citizens’ Quality of Life?

Few studies have analysed the results of public management in terms of social welfare. However, the financial health of local governments is in decline, which means that they are no longer able to provide public services that require financial obligations. This generally results in a reduction in the quality/quantity of public services provided by local governments, thus affecting citizens’ quality of life, since the most important welfare needs are usually related to public services. This study is an original approach to understanding the importance of the financial health of local governments in relation to social welfare. We selected a sample composed of 76 Spanish cities for the period 2008–2010. The results show that citizens who live in municipalities with good financial health have a higher quality of life than others. In general, citizens from municipalities governed by right-wing parties with low political competition tend to have higher levels of quality of life.     

我国农村贫困老人生活保障力度与经济适应性地区比较分析

本文借鉴社会保障测度模型．运用贫困老人生活保障深度指标、贫困老人生活保障水平与宏观经济偏差指标、贫困老人生活保障力度指标，利用全国31个省、直辖市、自治区2002年到2007年闻贫困老人生活保障水平和各地区人均GDP等宏观经济指标。来测度我国农村贫困老人生活保障水平，并分析其与经济发展水平的适应性。判别分析显示：各地区贫困老人生活保障相对序数基本与我国东部、中部、西部划分相一致，我国各地贫困老人生活保障与当地经济发展水平基本相适应．只有辽宁、福建和山东保障水平偏低，宁夏和新疆保障水平偏高。但从贫困老人生活保障与经济的偏差来说．存在偏差较大。东部地区一些省份虽然贫困老人生活保障的绝对水平高于全国．但相对水平还有待提高。     

Health Conditions of Advanced-Age Citizens in Jiangsu: A Survey

Table1Morbidityofselecteddiseasesbyagegroup(%)80-8485-8990-9495-99100+TotalIncidenceofdiseasesHypertension16.313.88.87.36.610.0Diabetes1.00.50.01.00.30.5Heartattack8.15.64.13.93.64.9Cerebrovasculardisease3.33.61.02.42.22.5Trachitisandlungdisease15.413.314.410.810.712.6Cataract12.05.612.412.218.913.2Glaucoma1.41.52.11.06.02.9Cancer0.51.00.00.00.80.5Prostatitis4.32.65.23.90.83.0Gastriculcer4.83.12.61.51.62.6Parkinson'sdisease1.41.00.51.50.81.0Bedsore0.00.00.00.50.50.3Otherdiseases12.415.910…     

Empirical bayes estimation of demographic schedules for small areas

In this article, we analyze empirical Bayes (EB) methods for estimating small-area rate schedules. We develop EB methods that treat schedules as vectors and use adaptive neighborhoods to keep estimates appropriately local. This method estimates demographic rates for local subpopulations by borrowing strength not only from similar individuals elsewhere but also from other groups in the same area and from regularities in schedules across locations. EB is substantially better than standard methods when rates have strong spatial and age patterns. We illustrate this method with estimates of age-specific fertility schedules for over 3,800 Brazilian municipalities.     

基于科学发展观的人类发展指标体系研究——以苏州市为例

科学发展观是统领我国社会经济发展的重要指导思想。而要将此重要理念付诸实施,贯彻落实到政府部门具体的行政工作中,建立科学的人类发展评价体系和正确的政府工作引导机制至关重要。本课题试图以苏州为例,以科学发展观为指导,通过对现有的人类发展指数及其相关指标的应用评估,提出新的基于科学发展的人类发展指标体系,并运用实际资料通过横向和纵向比较来评估新世纪以来苏州在人类发展中所取得的进展以及新的人类发展指标体系的应用状况。     

On the (In)Consistency of Citizen and Municipal Level Indicators of Social Capital and Local Government Performance

We study the empirical consistency of survey based (micro level) indicators of social capital and local government performance on the one, and municipality based (aggregate level) measures of these two concepts on the other hand. Knowledge about the behavior of these indicators is helpful for evaluating the value of studies carried out in isolated contexts, that is, with access to data on either, but not both, levels. The method is by comparing data collected by Statistics Belgium on Flemish municipalities, to data collected at citizen level by means of a face-to-face survey. The available evidence supplies at best a meager basis for presupposing a shared component of the indicators under study.     

Social Capital and Community Heterogeneity

Recent findings indicate that more pronounced community heterogeneity is associated with lower levels of social capital. These studies, however, concentrate on specific aspects in which people differ (such as income inequality or ethnic diversity). In the present paper, we introduce the number of parties in the local party system as a more encompassing measure of community heterogeneity. This builds on the argument that the number of relevant socio-economic cleavages in the population (i.e. heterogeneity) determines the level of party system fragmentation. Using data on 307 Flemish municipalities, we find that municipalities with a more heterogeneous population indeed have lower levels of social capital. Hence, our study endorses—and generalizes—previous results linking community heterogeneity to lower levels of social capital.

An Explanatory Model for Projecting Regional Fertility Differences in the Netherlands

Current differences in the level of the total fertility rate (TFR) between Dutch municipalities are smaller than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. Nevertheless, there are still considerable differences. Small municipalities have higher TFRs than large cities. This article aims to answer the question whether these differences will decline further until differences between large and small cities disappear. For that purpose we develop a regression model of regional differences in the TFR including demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural variables. Using the estimation results we decompose differences in fertility between large and small cities into the contribution of differences in levels of the determinants versus differences in the relationships between the determinants and fertility. The results show that differences in cultural variables have a larger effect on differences in the TFR than the demographic and socioeconomic variables. As cultural differences do not tend to change quickly, they will not lead to quick changes in regional differences in the TFR. Demographic differences are not expected to lead to strong changes either, as the two demographic variables (household structure and ethnic structure) have opposite effects. As the effect of the socioeconomic variable is caused by differences in the magnitude of the regression coefficient rather than by differences in the value of this variable, even if differences in this variable disappeared, this would still not lead to convergence of the TFR. Thus the article concludes that differences in the TFR between large and small cities are not likely to diminish quickly.     

The Importance of the Geographic Level of Analysis in the Assessment of the Quality of Life: The Case of Spain

There is a growing literature on the assessment of quality of life conditions in geographically and/or politically divided regions. Sometimes these territories are countries within a specified supranational structure, such as the European Union, for instance, and sometimes they are regions within countries. There is also some research that focuses on the municipal level of analysis, measuring the quality of life in cities. In the end what the researcher obtains is, at best, an average of the living conditions in the specified territory. However, if results are intended to have policy implications, attention should be paid to the variance in living conditions within regions. In this paper we attempt to quantify the relative importance of three different geographic levels of analysis in assessing the quality of life of the Spanish population. The geo-political division in Spain consists firstly of regions called Comunidades Autónomas, which are then divided into provinces which in turn are divided into municipalities. We are interested in evaluating the extent to which the quality of life conditions of an average person living in a given municipality are explained by the province and region in which the municipality is located. To do so, we first construct a composite indicator of quality of life (QoL) for the 643 largest municipalities of Spain using 19 variables which are weighted using Value Efficiency Analysis (VEA). VEA is a refinement of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) that imposes some consistency on the weights of the indicators used to construct the aggregate index. The indicators cover aspects related to consumption, social services, housing, transport, environment, labour market, health, culture and leisure, education and security. We then make a variance decomposition of the VEA scores to assess the importance of the three levels of geo-political administration. The results show that the municipal level is the most important of these, accounting for 52% of the variance in QoL. Regions explain 38% while provinces only account for a moderate 10%. Therefore, political action at the regional and municipal level would seem to have a larger impact on QoL indicators.     

Bulletin of major figures from manual tabulation of the national sample survey on fertility and birth control of China

The State Council, the State Family Planning Commission, the State Statistical Bureau, the State Planning Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Public Security of China together carried out a national sample survey on fertility and birth control in China in 1988. The survey was carried out in 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government. The Tibetan Autonomous Region and the Hainan Province were surveyed for the 1st time, but the results from Tibet were not collected in time for this publication. The main respondents were the married women at age 15-57, with 2,114,591 people surveyed and a sampling proportion of 1.98/1000. This article describes the survey and its results according to birth rate, parity composition, and rural-urban fertility differences. Birth rates, mortality rates, and natural increase rates from high to low orders were tabulated for: urban areas, farms, towns, rural townships, and suburban townships. With the first 1/2 of 1988 birth rates tabulated, it was estimated that the total number of births in China will be less than in 1987. In 1987, the rate of 3rd or higher parity birth was below 5% in 6 provinces and municipalities, but 10 provinces and autonomous regions were over 20%. Fertility rates showed considerable disparity depending on the locational demographics (e.g. birth rates in urban areas were 14.3/1000 yet birth rates were 24.3/1000 in suburban townships).     

国家统计局：返乡农民工就业调查结果

为了摸清农民工底数及外出返乡情况，国家统计局利用农民工返乡过节的时机，在全国31个省、857个县、7100个村和68000个农村住户开展了一次大规模的抽样调查。主要调查结果如下：     

我国农村最低生活保障力度及其横向公平性分析

运用比率模型和标准值模型,通过对全国31个省区市2008～2010年的实证研究发现:我国农村最低生活保障制度取得显著性成效,农村最低生活保障力度逐年增强。但农村最低生活保障存在明显的地区性差异,且截至2010年仍然有7个省区市的食品支出保障弹力F<1,未能保障人民的生存权。从横向公平性来分析,农村最低生活保障存在横向公平,但缺乏公平的物质基础。要实现农村全面保障,一是要大力振兴中西部地区经济;二是要加大地区的转移支付力度;三是农村最低生活保障标准应根据农村人均消费支出进行确定;四是要加强制度监管。