Pascal’s and Tabarrok’s Wagers

In a recent paper A. Tabarrok [Believe in Pascal’s Wager? Have I Got a Deal for You!, Theory and Decision 48, 123--128, 2000] argued that a believer who accepts Pascal’s Wager should in addition accept payment of any given fee in return for a given increase in the probability of reaching God. However the conclusion is obtained from manipulations of infinities which are not valid in an expected utility model. In this note, an alternative model is formulated in which Tabarrok’s conclusion can be obtained.     

Condorcet’s principle and the strong no-show paradoxes

We consider two no-show paradoxes, in which a voter obtains a preferable outcome by abstaining from a vote. One arises when the casting of a ballot that ranks a candidate in first place causes that candidate to lose the election, superseded by a lower-ranked candidate. The other arises when a ballot that ranks a candidate in last place causes that candidate to win, superseding a higher-ranked candidate. We show that when there are at least four candidates and when voters may express indifference, every voting rule satisfying Condorcet’s principle must generate both of these paradoxes.     

Machiavelli’s Soderini and the problem of necessity

Drawing principally on a particular example discussed by Machiavelli, this article seeks to clarify the concept of necessity and assess the Machiavellian contentions that evil-doing is in politics often necessary and justified. The example indicates that claims of necessity are best construed as allegations that evil-doing is “indispensable.” The example also indicates that these allegations are often suspect because these typically reflect limited information and knowledge and often biases and rationalizations as well, although this is not stressed by Machiavelli. Instead, Machiavelli stresses the dangers and difficulties statesmen often confront when seeking to secure important political ends or avoid costly failures, dangers and difficulties which he believes are ultimately related to the nature of human beings and the character of political elites. With respect to the morality of evil-doing, Machiavelli is suggestive of different kinds and forms of justification. Five kinds are described, and all are found unsatisfactory.     

Preferences and decision errors in the winner’s curse

The problem of asymmetric information causes a winner’s curse in many environments. Given many unsuccessful attempts to eliminate it, we hypothesize that some people ‘prefer’ the lotteries underlying the winner’s curse. Study 1 shows that after removing the hypothesized cause of error, asymmetric information, half the subjects still prefer winner’s curse lotteries, implying past efforts to de-bias the winner’s curse may have been more successful than previously recognized since subjects prefer these lotteries. Study 2 shows risk-seeking preferences only partially explain lottery preferences, while non-monetary sources of utility may explain the rest. Study 2 suggests lottery preferences are not independent of context, and offers methods to reduce the winner’s curse.

Broaden the Opening and Speed Up Anshan’s Economic Development

In order to broaden the opening up to the outside world and speed up the economic development in Anshan, the mayor of Anshan City gives a comprehensive speech here. The following are his main words. Anshan, a steel capital in China, is very rich in natural resources and strong in industrial foundation. Anshan is an outstanding tourism city in China. The city will encourage foreign investors to take part in the system reform, reorganization and transformation of the State-owned enterprises b…     

The Role of the Supreme People’s Court and Its Evolution

China does not have the political system of separation of powers into legislative, executive and judicial divisions but puts into practice a different kind of system for separation of powers and checks and balance among public security, the procuratorate and the trial of cases (to which we may add judicial administration) within the judicial organs themselves. The federalist judicial system finds no place here; instead,     

Hypothetical thinking and the winner’s curse: an experimental investigation

Theory and Decision - There is evidence that bidders fall prey to the winner’s curse because they fail to extract information from hypothetical events—like winning an auction. This...     

China’s Role and Influence in the Incidents in Po-land and Hungary in 1956

在苏联处理波匈事件的初期,中国因情况不明未及参与。而在苏联决定从布达佩斯撤军和再次武装占领匈牙利的问题上,中国的意见起了主导作用。这就是说,在危机处理的后期,苏联听从了中国的建议和主张,其结果是毛泽东既批判了苏联的大国主义,又保证了社会主义阵营的团结。波匈事件标志着中共在国际共产主义运动中的地位和声望已经迈上了一个新台阶。     

“Snow’s Proposition” and Interdisciplinary Research in the Humanities and Social Sciences

“斯诺命题”提出了“科学文化”和“文学文化”的矛盾和冲突, 以及“两种文 化”发展中的困境问题。“斯诺命题”在积极意义上涉及提出了人文科学、社会科学 和自然科学之间存在的对象的整体性与既定学科的局部性的矛盾问题, 提出了人文社 会科学“次文化”分裂和分离化倾向的问题。走跨学科之路是破解“斯诺命题”关键 所在, 其中特别要注重解决好学科研究和问题研究的结合、个体研究和团队研究的结 合、学者的个人禀赋发挥、研究的社会导向和环境导向、研究的评价体制和机制优化 等问题。

关键词: 斯诺命题 科学文化 文学文化 人文社会科学 跨学科研究

“Snow’s proposition” points out the contradictions and conflicts between “scientific culture” and “literary culture” and the dilemma of the development of the “two cultures.” In the positive sense, Snow’s proposition concerns the contradictions between the integrity of the research subject and the particularity of established disciplines, as well as the trend toward division and isolation in subdivisions of the humanities and social sciences. The key to solving Snow’s proposition is to take an inter-disciplinary path that pays particular attention to combining discipline-centered with issue-centered research and individual work with teamwork, giving full play to individual endowment, social orientation and environmental orientation and to the optimization of evaluation systems and mechanisms.     

Localization of Marxism in China and the Construc-tion of China’s Modernity

现代性在中国的生成与建构,是与马克思主义中国化历史地联系在一起的;中国现代性的建构,也历史地确定了马克思主义中国化的起点、任务与方向。马克思主义中国化的理论任务就是要求确立以建设为核心的观念、以促进人与社会的全面发展为主旨的马克思主义理论话语系统,构造一套符合全球化时代要求、有利于中华民族复兴及长治久安、并具有自检与防御机制及能力的开放性的社会、政治与文化体系。     

The senator’s tale: the development of Bremen’s bourgeoisie in the post-1945 era

Were members of the German bourgeoisie capable of forming the foundation for a new self-understanding of post-1945German society? Or did they prove to be unsuited as agents of Germany’s new beginning? This article seeks to answer these questions by focusing on historical developments in the early phase of the Federal Republic of Germany as reflected in the biography of one prominent representative of the German bourgeoisie. Theodor Spitta, who was born in 1873, was elected in 1911as a senator for life in the government of the Free Hanse City of Bremen. Spitta was an outstanding representative of a generation socialized under the last German Kaiser, a generation which perceived itself as part of a politically liberal Bremen bourgeoisie. He feared the gradual decline, indeed the disintegration of his class. None the less – or perhaps for that very reason – he committed himself to the goal of restoring a regionally specific form of bourgeois life in the city of Bremen. Although Spitta declared a ‘farewell to the bourgeoisie’ in his autobiographical texts, that did not prevent him from actively pursuing the revival of a unique urban-bourgeois ‘spirit’. This spirit was to serve as a tool in promoting Bremen’s central political goal in post-1945Germany: the preservation of the city-state’s unique status within Germany’s federal system.     

Resettled Refugees and Food Insecurity in the U.S.; Exploring the Caseworker’s Role

When refugees arrive in their new resettlement country, they are designated to work with a caseworker employed with a resettlement agency who helps them acclimate to their new environment and break down new challenges. Food insecurity is one such challenge that resettled refugees face. This study looked at the role that caseworkers play in helping clients navigate food security. Eight caseworkers from three resettlement agencies participated in semistructured qualitative interviews. Data analysis revealed four categories: the caseworker’s role, linking clients to benefits, concerns about food, and caseworkers’ perspectives. The main concerns revolved around federal food assistance benefits, reflecting past study findings, and warrants further investigation into the efficacy of such programs. Moreover, the caseworkers’ perceived role in terms of food security was vague and inexplicit from the Cooperative Agreement protocols. Food security focused training could improve caseworker’s capacity to help clients adapt to their new food environment.     

The “Great Leap Forward,” the People’s Communes and the Rupture of the Sino-Soviet Alliance

1957年莫斯科会议以后,中共对莫斯科在国际共运中的领导地位提出了挑战。毛泽东发动的“大跃进”名为“超英赶美”,实为赶超苏联,而大办人民公社则意在为整个社会主义阵营指出了一条通向共产主义的光明大道。对此,苏联一般干部及东欧国家表现出极大兴趣,而苏共领导人则一直保持沉默。克里姆林宫的这种暧昧和怀疑的态度激怒了毛泽东,特别是在庐山会议期间得知赫鲁晓夫公开发表言论,间接地否定了人民公社后,忍无可忍的毛泽东决定向一切怀疑和反对这两项“创举”的人宣战。这是导致中苏关系破裂的另一个重要导火索。     

Lu Xun’s Ideological “Heresies”and the Tradition of Yue Culture

Before his death Lu Xun was sub-jected to every kind of taunt, abuse, cursesand attack, and even after his death he couldnot rest in peace: unintentional misunderstand-ings and deliberate distortions have followedone another without end. Lu Xun’s failureto be understood by others is rooted in hisideological “heresies.” These heresies arerelated to the progressiveness, rebelliousspirit and tenacity of the Yue culture, a localculture of the Chinese nation, and are morecorrelated spiritually…