How surveys are changing at the U.S. Bureau of the Census

"This article describes the survey activities of the U.S. Census Bureau and recent efforts by the bureau to move toward a more fully automated environment....[It] focuses on four areas in which the Census Bureau is changing its approach to surveys: (1) redesigning the questionnaire for the Current Population Survey to better reflect current labor force conditions; (2) redesigning the same questionnaire to gain advantages from computer-assisted interviewing; (3) redesigning the samples for household surveys to be used during the next decade, a task undertaken after every decennial census; and (4) progress in changing to a computer-assisted survey information collection (CASIC) system and developing a data management network for all Census Bureau surveys."     

The Role of Chance in the Census Bureau Database Reconstruction Experiment

Population Research and Policy Review - The Census Bureau plans a new approach to disclosure control for the 2020 census that will add noise to every statistic the agency produces for places below...     

The Census Bureau on Prospects for US Population Growth in the Twenty‐First Century

The U.S. Census Bureau periodically releases projections of the US resident population, detailed by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. The most recent of these, issued 13 January 2000, for the first time extend to the year 2100 and also include information on the foreign‐bom population. (Earlier projections were carried up to 2080.) The extensive tabulations presenting the new set, and detailed explanation of the methodology and the assumptions underlying the projections, are accessible at the Census Bureau's web site: http://www.census.gov . A brief summary of some of the main results of these projections is reproduced below from United States Department of Commerce News, Washington, DC 20230. (The Census Bureau is an agency of the Department of Commerce.) Uncertainties as to future trends in fertility, mortality, and net migration over a period of some 100 years are very great, as is illustrated by the massive difference in the projected size of the population for 2100 in the three variants produced. The “middle” projected population figure of 571 million (which represents a growth of some 109 percent over its current level) is bracketed by “lowest” and “highest” alternative projections of 283 million and 1.18 billion, respectively. With somewhat lesser force, the point also applies to the 50‐year time span considered in the well‐known country‐by‐country projections of the United Nations. These projections are also detailed in three variants: low, middle, and high. The UN projections (last revised in 1998) envisage less rapid growth in the United States during the first part of the twenty‐first century than do the Census Bureau's. The projected population figures for 2050 in the three variants (low, middle, and high) are as follows (in millions):

1982～2010年期间四次全国人口普查数据一致性研究——基于出生人口队列的分析

数据一致性是反映人口普查数据质量高低的重要指标。文章以第三、四、五、六次全国人口普查数据为基础,充分考虑人口死亡因素,比较同一出生队列人口在不同普查年份的人口规模,以此对人口普查数据一致性进行检验。研究中主要有三点发现:一是分时期进行分析,在"三普"至"六普"的28年间,九成以上出生队列人口存活率大于1,发生正偏离现象;二是对四次人口普查中的相邻两次普查依次进行比较,普查时处于0～90岁的91个出生队列人口偏离量逐渐增大,偏离率渐次上升;三是分性别来看,1982～2000年出生队列人口偏离程度存在显著性别差异。相当数量的出生队列人口出现系统性正偏离,表明在人口普查中存在较为严重的人口漏报、人口重报或死亡漏报。     

U.S. Bureau of the Census: facing the future labor shortage

"This article begins with a brief overview of the [U.S.] Census Bureau's preparations for the future, then discusses the demographic and social changes that are affecting the national labor force, from which the Census Bureau hires its workers. The final section considers how the bureau and its mission are affected by these changes."     

对2000年人口普查出生性别比的分层模型分析

本文对以往出生性别比研究中的若干观点进行了学术评论,并讨论了个别经验统计分析中的方法问题。在此基础上,本文应用非线性分层模型将2000年全国人口普查1‰数据和1999年的地区级生育政策数据结合起来对出生性别比失调的影响因素进行了初步分析。结果表明,育龄妇女现有子女数量及性别和一些社会特征对出生性别比存在单独的影响,并且肯定了生育政策既存在对出生性别比的直接影响,也通过其与妇女以往生育结果以及其他社会特征之间的交互效应来影响出生性别比。     

Note on some problems in interpreting migration data from the 1960 Census of population

Movements of young men into and out of the armed forces and youth entering and leaving the college population are an important component of the migration between 1955 and 1960 recorded in the 1960 Census of the, United States. Measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the end of the period (1960) are presented to show the substantial volume of these special types of movement. Under 1960 Census procedures, no corresponding measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the beginning of the period (1955) can be obtained. A sizeable number of the “migrants,” especially the young and well educated, identified in the 1960 Censuses must be persons who were in the armed forces or away at college in 1955 and, by 1960, had completed their military service or their education and returned to their previous places of residence.     

Changes in Cohabitation After the Birth of the First Child in Chile

In Chile, as in other Latin American countries, most children born outside of marriage are born to currently cohabiting couples. After having their first child, parents could marry, separate, or experience no change in union status. This paper explores changes in cohabitation that occur after the birth of the first child in Chile and analyzes how these changes might be associated with the birth of children and socioeconomic status. The data come from the New Chilean Family Survey, a small longitudinal survey administered to women after giving birth (n = 564). I use life tables and event history techniques to assess changes in respondent union status up to 4 years after the birth of the first child, and to study the transitions out of cohabitation. The results indicate that the unions in the sample are relatively stable, because less than 40 percent of cohabiters change status over the period of 4 years. However, marriage still appears to be a more stable type of union than cohabitation. Among cohabiters, there is evidence of a nonlinear relation between union stability and educational attainment, because the most stable unions are the unions of women with a high school diploma and not the unions of women who did not complete their secondary education. Having planned the first birth and the birth of an additional child seems to consolidate the cohabiting union, because these variables are not related to the entry into marriage, but they are related to lower risks of dissolution. These findings suggest that the Chilean case differs from the cases of Europe and the United States.     

Region of Birth and Disability Among Recent U.S. Immigrants: Evidence from the 2000 Census

This study aimed to test the “healthy immigrant” hypothesis and assess health heterogeneity among newly arrived working-age immigrants (18–64 years) from various regions of origin. Using the 5% sample of the 2000 U.S. Census (PUMS), we found that, compared with their native-born counterparts, immigrants from all regions of the world were less likely to report mental disability and physical disability. Immigrants from selected regions of origin were, however, more likely to report work disability. Significant heterogeneity in disabilities exists among immigrants: Those from Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia reported the highest risk of mental and physical disability, and those from East Asia reported the lowest risk of physical disability. Furthermore, Mexican immigrants reported the lowest risk of mental disability, and Canadian immigrants reported the lowest risk of work disability. Socioeconomic status and English proficiency partially explained these differences. The health advantage of immigrants decreased with longer U.S. residence.     

2000～2010年中国生育水平推算——基于“六普”数据的初步研究

文章根据公布的"六普"数据,对2000～2010年中国生育水平进行模拟推算,并与往年普查及调查结果进行比较分析。结果发现,2000年"五普"0～14岁低龄人口漏登2 056万人,女性漏登率高于男性,1岁和7岁组漏登率最高;2000～2010年育龄妇女人数增长了7.86%,生育水平相对较低的35～49岁女性增幅较大;总和生育率经历了由降到升、再到稳中有降的过程,2000～2009年历年加总的总和生育率平均值为1.48。另外,"五普"低龄人口漏登并未导致此前一些研究认为的近10年"生育率被严重低估"的结果,由普查与调查数据直接获得的总和生育率与推算值之间的平均落差仅为0.09。在生育率低走、育龄妇女人口规模缩小且其年龄结构持续老化的多重影响下,中国人口年龄结构的急剧变化应引起高度重视。     

中国第六次人口普查长寿人口研究

文章利用第六次人口普查资料,对比第五次人口普查,以65岁以上老年人口为基数,统计分析90岁、100岁长寿人口。文章认为,长寿人口总体规模呈快速增长趋势;两次人口普查长寿人口地区分布基本一致;沿海经济发达地区的长寿人口比例比西北一些省份高;华南沿海地区的长寿老人比例两次普查都比较高,地理区位特点显著;第六次人口普查显示城市与乡村长寿人口趋于一致。对中国100万人口以上的19个民族长寿人口研究结果显示,90岁以上长寿老人排序前五位的民族有:回族、壮族、黎族、瑶族、维吾尔族。100岁以上长寿老人排序前五位的民族有:黎族、维吾尔族、瑶族、傣族、回族。长寿人口健康状况研究显示,90岁以上长寿老人22%生活不能自理,100岁以上长寿老人29.2%生活不能自理。     

Cross-Section Studies As Predictors of Trends in Birth Rates: A Note on Ekanem’s Results

Ekanem has shown that variations in socioeconomic development are associated with differences in birth rates. However, he has made no attempt to determine if his regression equations can be used to predict trends in fertility. This note shows that, using Ekanem’s data, the factors he found most significant in explaining differences in fertility playa minor role over time whereas per capita income, which he found to be relatively insignificant in explaining variations cross-sectionally, has a statistically significant impact over time .     

中国乡城人口流动与城镇出生人口性别比——基于“五普”数据的分析

本文利用中国第五次人口普查1‰抽样数据,以城镇区域人口为重点,定量分析了农村人口流动对城镇地区人口出生性别比,以及农村流入城镇人口子女性别的影响。研究发现,中国农村未流动人口、农村流入城镇人口和城镇非农村流入人口的出生性别比均偏离了出生性别比的正常水平,农村人口流动影响了城镇地区生育性别,农村流入城镇人口相对较强的男孩偏好观念加剧了城镇地区出生性别比偏高。     

1990—2010年长三角地区城市体系的演进——基于人口普查数据的研究

集聚经济和专业化是主导区域城市体系演进的两股主要力量,但二者对区域城市体系中不同城市的增长速度有着不同的影响.前者促进中心城市的发展,而后者主要是促进外围城市的发展.文章使用“四普”、“五普”和“六普”数据资料研究发现,尽管长三角各城市的规模都有了很大的提高,但城市体系内部总体上呈现出扁平化趋势,中小城市发展速度相对更快.这表明,专业化分工是促进长三角城市体系的主要动力.     

Comments on ``Coverage of the Population in Census 2000: Results from Demographic Analysis' and ``Demographic comparison between self-response and personal visit interview in Census 2000', Population Research and Policy Review,Special Issue: Census 2000

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确保2010年出生婴儿性别比趋向正常的对策研究

本文首先回顾了我国自八十年代以来出生婴儿性别比逐年上升、且偏离正常值的变动趋势,简单总结了学术界对此现象的原因分析。据此从长期治本、短期治标两方面,提出了7条具体建议,为确保实现中共中央国务院提出的“2010年出生婴儿性别比趋向正常”的目标尽微薄之力。     

1990年代中国出生性别比:究竟有多高?

当1990年代各种人口调查"过低的"生育水平难以置信时,其"过高的"出生性别比数据却被广泛接受。本文的主要目的是通过对2000年人口普查出生数据漏报的性别差异的分析,利用教育统计数据,重新估计2000年及90年代的出生性别比。结果表明我国实际的出生性别比并不像2000年普查数据反映的那样严重偏高。我国实际的出生性别比和低年龄组性别比要比普查反映的水平低5～9个百分点。1990年代在我国出生性别比偏高的部分中,女婴漏报的作用高达50%以上。本文还根据2000年普查千分之一抽样数据,考察了出生性别比的社会经济差异。     

Correcting the Underestimation of Top Incomes: Combining Data from Income Tax Reports and the Brazilian 2010 Census

To deal with the problem of underestimation of top incomes in household surveys, we propose a methodology to combine the income distributions of the Brazilian 2010 Census (survey) and of 2010 DIRPF (personal income tax reports). The method consists in estimating a system of non-response weights that uses as frame the tax register and is applied to the top of the distribution. After applying this calibration methodology, we decompose inequality income sources. Correcting survey distributions with tax data increases the contribution of non-labor income to inequality, as the case of the Brazilian Census shows. Changes in the methodology do not affect the results substantially.