Race, Gender, and Opinion Toward Black and Female Presidential Candidates

Using data from the 1974 and 1978 General Social Surveys, publicopinion toward blacks and women as presidential candidates wasexplored. We tested the hypotheses that white males would beleast likely to support presidential candidates from both groups,while black females would be the most likely to express thissupport. We found that although blacks in general were moresupportive of black candidacies than were whites, women werenot consistently more supportive of female candidates. Whileblack women were more likely than black males to support femalecandidates, among whites few gender differences were found.     

STRUCTURING POLITICAL OPINIONS:

Political democracy assumes that citizens can form consistent political attitudes that guide their political actions, thereby communicating political preferences to elites. Responding to the longstanding debate about the democratic competence of the U.S. mass public, we use a multitiered framework of opinion formation to describe the structure of mass opinion, showing that the mass public displays relatively consistent responses across multiple issues and uses these to evaluate presidential candidates. Confirmatory factor analysis allows us to examine multiple models of political attitudes, showing the best fit to be three positively correlated general orientations for economic, social, and racial issues. We find no significant racial or educational differences in the structuring of these attitudes but some evidence of "race-coding" of economic issues and class differences in levels of support for economic and social liberalism. Liberal/conservative self-identification operates as a basic structuring principle for organizing these general orientations with liberals and conservatives assigning different salience to specific issues. These general political orientations, in turn, influence presidential evaluations net of party loyalties. Although the mass public may not be ideologically sophisticated, it is "deliberative and reasonable" in its political thinking and, in this sense, democratically competent.     

Can a Poll Affect Perception of Candidate Traits?

During presidential elections, poll results frequently are presentedin the news. Reporters use these polls to tell the public whatit thinks about the presidential candidates. We argue that pollingresults tell the public what it should think about the presidentialcandidates as well. This study outlines how a character traitthat is not usually used to assess presidential candidates wasput into play during the 2004 presidential campaign. By repeatedlyascribing "stubbornness" to incumbent president George W. Bush,Democratic challenger John Kerry may have prompted this trait’sinclusion in a Los Angeles Times summer 2004 survey. The poll’sevidence that the public saw Bush as more stubborn than Kerrythen produced an attribute agenda-setting effect that strengthenedthe link between that term and Bush. Using data from the NationalAnnenberg Election Survey, we argue that the news coverage ofthis Los Angeles Times poll increased the salience of the trait"stubborn" in assessing President George W. Bush during Juneof the 2004 presidential campaign.     

Examining Variance in Presidential Approval: The Case of FDR in World War II

Despite the substantive growth and increasing methodologicalsophistication of the presidential approval literature overthe last four decades, almost all analyses continue to focusexclusively on the mean of the approval distribution—thepercentage of Americans who approve of the president at a givenmoment. However, changes in the variance of popular supportfor the president may be as politically and substantively importantas shifts in the mean. To illustrate how a focus on variancecan enrich our understanding of changes in the president’spublic standing, this analysis examines the effects of the economyand World War II on the variance in popular support for FranklinD. Roosevelt. At the aggregate level, the study shows that highpeacetime unemployment and mounting casualties increased thevolatility of FDR’s standing among federal relief recipients,erstwhile his most consistent base of support. At the individuallevel, the analysis demonstrates that individuals with conflictingpartisan, economic, and war-related considerations for evaluatingthe president were more variable in their approval of Rooseveltthan were other respondents. Exporting a similar focus on varianceto other lines of research across the public opinion subfieldcould produce a richer understanding of the complex processesdriving opinion change over time.     

Public Support for American Presidents: A Cyclical Model

The approval accorded to Presidents by the American public isfound to follow a cyclical pattern over time. All Presidentsbegin their terms with great popularity, experience parabolicdeclines, steadily lose popular support for about three years,and then recover some at the ends of their terms. These distinctivecycles, it is argued, reflect regular expectation/disillusionmentcycles among the less well-informed segments of the public andare tied to the four-year election calendar. The extraordinaryfit of parabolic curves to actual presidential approval leadsto the suspicion that presidential approval may be almost whollyindependent of the President's behavior in office, a functionlargely of inevitable forces associated with time.     

Stewardship,credibility and political communications: A content analysis of the 2016 election

Public participation in the democratic process and trust in elected leaders are both declining. Drawing on research from the fields of public relations and communications, this content analysis examines political communication through the lens of credibility and stewardship, both concepts central to predicting favorable relationship maintenance outcomes. In this analysis of all presidential, Senate and congressional candidates in the 2016 election, findings indicated that candidates more commonly communicate ways to provide support for the campaign (relationship nurturing), than demonstrating that they are worthy of being entrusted by the public. In addition, candidates’ communication primarily centered on the candidate being a credible source, neglecting other strategies for demonstrating credibility (digital and content). While there were no significant differences by party affiliation, incumbents and presidential candidates were more likely to communicate some forms of stewardship and credibility.     

SOCIAL CLASS SENTIMENTS IN FORMATION: Influence of Class Socialization, College Socialization, and Class Aspirations

What explains social class sentiments among public university students? This empirical study uses a distributional model to define social class, which places students and their families with comparable resources over time into similar class locations. We survey a sample of students enrolled in four different schools at a large public midwestern university. The research finds that examining experiences with past, present, and anticipated or aspired future class locations is necessary for understanding the attitudes and beliefs associated with class that are held by young adults. We contend that future research designed to validly measure class consciousness or class sentiments must recognize that for some segments of the general population, class sentiments are not fixed, but are in a process of formation.     

THE RISE OF PRESIDENTIAL POLLING THE NIXON WHITE HOUSE IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

This article traces the institutional development of presidentialpolling of public opinion. We suggest that Kennedy, Johnson,and especially Nixon developed the institution of the presidencyto include a "public opinion apparatus"—an operation thatwas centralized in the White House and devoted to assemblingpublic opinion data and conducting extensive public relationsactivities. According to interviews with former officials andarchival records, this apparatus had its roots in Kennedy's1960 presidential campaign, but during the Johnson and Nixonpresidencies it developed into a regular and enduring institutionfor connecting presidential activity with public opinion.     

Beyond Spatial Models: A New Perspective on American Operational Ideology Using Latent Class Analysis

Analyses of operational ideology—the pattern of correlations between different political attitudes—in the American public generally assume “spatial” models of ideology. Using Latent Class Analysis, we relax many of these assumptions by treating operational ideology as a latent categorical variable and analyze the changing structure of American operational ideology between 2004 and 2020. We find that some Americans during this period held consistently liberal or conservative views and were well sorted into the “correct” political parties. For other Americans, however, we observe complex and shifting relationships between partisanship and economic, moral, and racial attitudes. We find that Racial Justice Communitarians consistently prefer to identify as Democrats, while Nativist Communitarians and Libertarians both tended to identify with whatever party won the most recent presidential election. Future studies of operational ideology should be wary of simplifying assumptions that obscure important dynamics in American politics.     

The White House and public relations: Examining the linkages between presidential communications and public opinion

This study investigates the linkages between presidential public relations activities—speeches and press conferences—and public opinion towards the presidency from 1961 to 1997. The results show that there is a positive linkage between presidential news conferences and foreign policy job approval, and between presidential speeches and general as well as foreign policy job approval. Overall, the findings reveal stronger linkages between presidential news conferences and job approval than between presidential speeches and job approval, but also that the topic of the information subsidies and the specific type of job approval matters.     

Developing the scale of presidential candidate's dialogic communication (PCDC) during the 2017 presidential campaign in South Korea

This study aims to develop and validate a measure of presidential candidates’ dialogic communication (PCDC) in political public relations. We conceptualized the construct of PCDC with two dialogic dimensions, voicing and listening, from the relational perspective. Through the scale development process, we conducted an online survey of 1,195 Korean participants during the Korean presidential campaign in February 2017. The results showed that the proposed two-dimensional PCDC scale with 12 items was statistically reliable and valid. The findings also revealed that voicing and listening were significantly associated with publics’ intention to support or oppose a candidate and their supportive or critical communication behavior regarding the candidate. Theoretical and strategic implications are further discussed.     

Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977 2002

Many presidential observers argue that the modern White Houseis the site of more-or-less permanent campaigning. In a recentPOQ piece, Murray and Howard (2002) [Public Opinion Quarterly66:527–558] explore one indicator of the "permanent campaign,"the extent to which Presidents Carter, Reagan, G.H.W. Bush,and Clinton commissioned independent opinion polls and focusgroups to assist in policymaking and political maneuvering.Murray and Howard suggest that while a sophisticated pollingoperation has been institutionalized in the White House, thereis substantial variation in how much a president uses this operation.In this article, we model presidential polling expendituresover time using monthly figures. We find that presidents donot vary significantly in the average amount spent per monthon polls. There are, however, two recurring patterns of variationwithin presidential administrations: Presidents tend to spendsignificantly more on internal polling during the most intensemonths of a presidential reelection campaign; and polling expendituresincrease over the course of each presidential term. These findingssuggest that there are common forces (e.g., elections, naturaldecline in support) that have driven all presidents since Fordto poll.     

An inconvenient vote: Hillary Clinton's Iraq war image repair debate strategies and their implications for representative democracy

Hillary Rodham Clinton was one of four 2007–2008 Democratic presidential candidates who had voted to authorize U.S. military use in Iraq. Given her status as the front-runner, Clinton's vote, in particular, presented a public relations problem for her among primary voters who strongly opposed the war and favored its prompt end. This study analyzes Clinton's attempts in debate performances to repair her image among voters. Clinton attempted to reduce offensiveness through differentiation, attempted to evade responsibility through defeasibility, and employed qualified mortification. Clinton's strategies were rated as inconsistent and their effectiveness is questionable.     

Public relations (PR) in nation-building: An exploration of the South African presidential discourse

This research explored public relations strategies employed in the presidential discourses for building relationships among South Africans in a democracy. This was done through analyzing political discourses of the three South African Presidents since 1994–2009 of Mandela, Mbeki and Zuma. A comparative discourse analysis was used to examine five important dimensions in political discourses concerning nation-building. Different themes were identified: relationship managing, democracy, national identity, and national development. Additionally, an exploratory discourse analysis was conducted to further investigate the characteristics of the presidential political discourses on nation-building. These analyses in the present research provide contributions to foster cooperation, developing a common national identity agenda and social cohesion using political campaign strategies, particularly for government, policymakers and public relations practitioners (PRP's), government communication practitioners, who strive to build a better relationship between government and the public.     

Predispositions and Public Support for the President During the War on Terrorism

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and their aftermathoffer a rare opportunity to examine how presidential approvalresponds to a sudden and severe national security crisis. Iutilize the 2000–2002 National Election Studies panelto track change in public attitudes toward George W. Bush overthe first two years of his presidency. An advantage of usingpanel data is that it allows me to go beyond aggregate changein presidential approval to examine how change is related todefense policy predispositions and prior political awareness.I find important differences. Over these two years, those highin political awareness experience priming of their defense predispositionsbut very little rally effect. In contrast, those low in politicalawareness experience a rally in support for Bush but very littlepriming. These results reaffirm that those with different levelsof political awareness respond to dramatic messages in distinctways.     

Agenda building effects by 2008 presidential candidates on global media coverage and public opinion

Grounded in first and second level agenda building and agenda setting, the relationships among public relations, global media, and public opinion were explored in the context of the 2008 United States presidential election. Two candidates’ speeches, press releases, and foreign media coverage were analyzed and compared with global public opinion. The results showed that object salience (issue and candidate) relationships were found between public relations messages and global media coverage while affective attribute (tone) salience relationships were partially found among public relations messages, global media, and public opinion.     

Political Polling and the New Media Culture: A Case of More Being Less

Changes in journalism—including newsroom cutbacks, anemphasis on repackaging secondhand material, and the demandsof 24-hour news—have expanded the reliance on polls asnews, including polls of a sort once considered not reliablefor publication, and led to a more superficial understandingof the 2004 presidential race. The proliferation of outletsoffering news, which has resulted in greater competition foraudience, has also intensified the motivation of using pollsin part for their marketing value rather than purely their probativejournalistic value. The more "synthetic" style of contemporaryjournalism has increased the tendency to allow polls to createa context for journalists to explain and organize other news—becomingthe lens through which reporters see and order a more interpretativenews environment. A greater dependence on horse race trackingpolls by the media has reinforced these tendencies and furtherthinned the public’s understanding toward who won andaway from why. Growing audience skepticism and political polarizationhave created an environment of distrust about the methodologyand integrity of polling. All of these factors, in turn, arefrustrating the efforts of academic and commercial pollstersto maintain standards and deepen understanding among journalistsabout public opinion research and how to use it as journalism.     

Race,Gender, and Attitudes Toward War in Chicago: An Intersectional Analysis1

Although prior research has documented persistent racial and gender differences in public opinion on war across U.S. military conflicts, there is little understanding as to how race and gender simultaneously shape war opinion. Using data from the 2008 Chicago Area Study, this analysis locates gender within an intersectional examination of black‐white differences in support for the U.S. war in Iraq. “Structural” and “racialized” explanations for blacks’ lower level of support relative to whites are tested, first using all respondents, and then for men and women. Exploratory analyses show the race gap in war support to exist solely among Chicago women. Racial differences in partisanship and education are most strongly associated with black‐white differences in Iraq War support among Chicago women. In addition, while affiliation with the Republican Party increases the odds of support among both men and women, education and political alienation decrease the odds of support only among women and the odds of support increase with age only among men. Results highlight the utility of an intersectional lens to the study of public opinion on foreign policy.     

Visions of Public Space: Reproducing and Resisting Social Hierarchies in a Community Garden

Urban public spaces are sites of struggles over gentrification. In increasingly diverse cities, these public spaces also host interactions among people of different class, race, ethnicity, and immigration status. How do people share public spaces in contexts of diversity and gentrification? I analyze the conflicting ways of imagining shared spaces by drawing on an ethnographic study of a community garden in a diverse and gentrifying neighborhood in New York City, conducted between 2011 and 2013. I examine how conflicts among gardeners about the aesthetics of the garden and norms of conduct reproduce larger gentrification struggles over culture and resources. Those who wanted the garden to be a lush and orderly space drew on their privilege and resources to leverage support from institutional actors and push through a vision that resonated with aesthetic preferences of affluent residents and developers. At the same time, I found that the diversity, combined with several other characteristics, created openings for cultural disruption. Utilizing relationships built across dramatic lines of class, race, and immigration difference, less privileged gardeners were able to destabilize hierarchies and defend their visions of this public space. Conflict and messy deliberation—rather than harmonious community—facilitated engagement with difference.     

The Implications of Transitions in the Voluntary Sector for Civic Engagement: A Case Study of Association Mobilization around the 2000 Presidential Campaign

This article reviews the prominent historical changes in American associational life (increasingly diffuse organizational attachments, professionalization of the voluntary sector, and the proliferation of "mailing-list" citizen groups), and turns to cross-sectional data on contemporary voluntary associations and their activities during the key campaign events of the 2000 presidential election to evaluate the impact of these changes on associations' ability to live up to the normative visions of civic engagement. Data on 29 diverse voluntary associations were gathered through unobtrusive observations at association events on location during the two national nominating conventions and the three televised presidential debates, 61 subsequent in-depth interviews with association representatives, literature distributed at association events, and a variety of supplemental sources. This article argues that although this new terrain is marked by significant limitations (as critics have suggested), especially in terms of associations' ability to provide opportunities for members to develop civic skills, these changes in associational life also offer important opportunities, particularly in terms of contributing to a vital democratic process by promoting public political discourse. Implications for social solidarity are also addressed.