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1.
Economic growth depends on human resources and human needs. The demographic age structure shapes both of these factors. We
study five-year data from the OECD countries 1950–1990 in the framework of an age structure augmented neoclassical growth
model with gradual technical adjustment. The model performs well in both pooled and panel estimations. The growth patterns
of GDP per worker (labor productivity) in the OECD countries are to a large extent explained by age structure changes. The
50–64 age group has a positive influence, and the group above 65 contributes negatively, while younger age groups have ambiguous
effects. However, the mechanism behind these age effects is not yet resolved.
Received: 16 January 1997/Accepted: 2 July 1998 相似文献
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Richard J. Estes 《Social indicators research》2007,83(3):375-411
“Economies in Transition” (hereafter EIT or EITs) are countries in the process of shifting from “command” to “more open”,
liberalized, free market economic systems. In addition to achieving major structural adjustments to their economies, the transformational
process requires the introduction of a high degree of transparency in both the economic and political spheres of society.
The transfer of state assets to private ownership is one part of the process as well, as is the creation or opening of “political
space” that permits the emergence of private enterprise, multiparty political systems, and the introduction of a broad range
of non-governmental organizations that carry out missions and functions which people themselves prefer to perform. Thus, the
process of economic transformation requires a major socio-political-economic paradigm shift...one that places people and their
needs at the center of the transformational process. The process is extremely difficult to achieve and is fraught with many
dangers for countries that enter into it without substantial guidance from more economically advanced countries.
This paper reports on the social development successes and failures of 31 economies in transition over the 15-year period
1990–2005. Included in the analysis are EITs located in East and South East Asia (N = 5), Central and Eastern Europe (N = 10), all 12 members of the Commonwealth of Independent States including the Russian Federation (N = 12), Turkey (N = 1), and the three Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (N = 3). Using the author’s extensively pre-tested Weighted Index of Social Progress (WISP), the paper reports data at three
levels of analysis: (1) WISP performances for all 31 EITs-as-a-group; (2) sub-regional performances on the WISP and its component
sub-indexes for each of the six EIT sub-regions included in the analysis; and (3) country-specific performances on the WISP
for each of the 31 countries included in the analysis.
An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2006 International Symposium and Lecture Series on Social Policy sponsored
by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and held on the campus of Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, 24–27 August,
2006. 相似文献
4.
关于人口转变对于经济增长的效应研究由来已久,但是研究大多只考虑了人口数量和人口增长率对于经济增长的效应。近二十年来,许多经济学家在揭示“东亚奇迹”和中国经济腾飞等一系列经济现象的原因时。发现了人口年龄结构对于经济增长的重要贡献,并提出了“人口红利”的概念以解释经济发展。本文将具体介绍近二十年来理论界对于人口转变影响经济增长的相关机制的研究以及经验分析。并对这些研究的政策含义和有待深入研究的问题作出简要评述。 相似文献
5.
Timor-Leste, the newest nation in Asia stands out demographically. The nation-building process of Timor-Leste faces significant
demographic challenges due to the population growth which is the fastest in Asia and almost the fastest in the world. This
unprecedented growth is primarily an outcome of the extremely high total fertility rate of Timor-Leste which is amongst the
highest in the world. Amidst the worrying socio-economic condition in this new nation, it is of great concern that if the
current fertility rate and its implied population growth continue as predicted, the population of Timor-Leste will double
in 17 years. This paper offers an insight into the future of Timor-Leste’s demography with a particular focus on the impact
of rapid pace of population growth on the health sector. The analysis is largely based on 2004 census data, as well as drawing
on the broader literature and qualitative research already carried out by the lead author into the reasons behind high fertility
in Timor-Leste. On this basis, the authors extrapolate key impacts of this projected population growth, and implications for
the health sector. 相似文献
6.
结构转变、制度变迁下的人口红利与经济增长 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
已有的对人口红利影响经济增长的实证研究未将结构和制度的重大变革纳入模型,这与东亚及我国经济增长的现实不符。本文通过在模型中纳入结构转变和制度变迁变量,用1978~2008年的数据进行误差修正分析,计算出在结构转变和制度变迁的背景下,我国人口红利及各要素对经济增长的影响。结果发现,固定资产投资对我国经济增长的影响程度最大,其次是技术进步,第三是制度变迁,结构变化的影响也很显著。人口红利的影响也较显著,但是其对经济增长解释力度较小。因此随着人口红利的逐渐消失,未来的经济增长更需要依靠投资、技术进步、结构变迁和制度变革。 相似文献
7.
Egypt comprises thousands of small geographic units. Total fertility rates are reconstructed for the 4905qism, qarya, medina, markaz andshiyakhat covering non-desert Egypt at the 1960, 1976, 1986 and 1996 censuses. This fine spatial scale reveals that heterogeneity across
subdivisions increased during the fertility transition, illustrating the rapidity of change. Spatial patterns appear in the
fertility upsurge of 1974–85, which is accompanied by a large but temporary reduction in heterogeneity. Fertility varies greatly
between subdivisions and geographic differentials underlie the expected and observed association between fertility, literacy,
family transfers and industrialization. Cairo led the decline of fertility, but that decline is counterbalanced by rapid economic
growth and persistently high levels of illiteracy. A similar pattern of fertility change is observed for the chief city of
the Muhafaza and its surrounding area. Egypt presents an archetype of demographic transition as improved economic and educational
status diffuses across the country, moderated by its specific geography. 相似文献
8.
This paper explores the role of mortality in the long transition from Malthusian stagnation to sustained economic growth. An endogenous child mortality rate that varies inversely with parents standard of living is added to the framework in Galor and Weil (AER 2000). In our version of the model, the transition from stagnation to growth, triggered by an exogenous shock to technology, comprises a mortality revolution succeeded by a demographic transition.This paper has benefitted from discussions with and suggestions made by KarlGunnar Persson, Christian Schultz, and, particularly, Christian Groth at the University of Copenhagen. I gratefully acknowledge the insightful criticisms of two anonymous referees, and I thank Paula Madsen for English proof-reading. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno. 相似文献
9.
Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi 《Journal of Population Research》1997,14(2):167-185
This paper examines the validity of the own-children method of fertility estimates derived from the 1991 Census by a detailed
investigation of mortality assumptions, the presence of non-own children, age misreporting and undercount. A comparison of
fertility measures derived alternatively from the census using the own-children method and from vital statistics for the period
1987–91 indicates remarkably similar rates for Australia-born women, and plausible results for long established migrant groups.
The own-children fertility levels for some recently arrived migrant groups, however, were found to be misleading. It is suggested
that the own-children method is useful for the study of differential current fertility in Australia.
Revised version of an essay awarded the W.D. Borrie Prize (graduate section), 1997, and presented to the session: Advances
in methods for the analysis of demographic data of the 23rd General Conference of the International Union for the Scientific
Study of Population, 11–17 October, Beijing. This paper is based on the author’s PhD thesis entitled:Fertility patterns of Australian selected immigrant groups, 1977–91. 相似文献
10.
We focus on three environmental impacts particularly influenced by population age-structure—carbon emissions from transport
and residential energy and electricity consumption—as well as aggregate carbon emissions for a panel of developed countries,
and take as our starting point the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) framework.
Among our contributions is to further disaggregate population into three particularly key age groups: 20–34, 35–49, and 50–64,
and by doing so demonstrate that population’s environmental impact differs considerably across age groups, with the older
age groups (ones typically associated with larger households) actually exerting a negative influence. Furthermore, those age-specific
population influences are different (in absolute and relative terms) for the different environmental impacts we analyze. Also,
we find that urbanization, in developed countries, best measures access to a country’s power grid, and thus, is positively
associated with energy consumption in the residential sector. Finally, we suggest some modeling and methodological improvements
to the STIRPAT framework. 相似文献
11.
This research examines land use change in Israel––an intriguing but understudied setting with regard to population–environment
dynamics. While Israel is fairly unique with regard to its combined high levels of economic prosperity and high population growth, this case study has relevance for developed countries and regions (like the south and southwest regions
of the USA) which must balance population growth and urban development with open space conservation for ecosystem services
and biological diversity. The population–land development relationship is investigated during the period from 1961 to 1995
at three spatial scales: national, regional (six districts), and local (40 localities). There is a positive correlation between
population growth and land development rates at the national scale, and while remaining positive, the strength of the relationship
varies greatly at regional and local scales. The variation in population–land use dynamics across scales is used to garner
insight as to the importance of geography, policy and historical settlement patterns. 相似文献
12.
Alisson F. Barbieri Edson Domingues Bernardo L. Queiroz Ricardo M. Ruiz José I. Rigotti José A. M. Carvalho Marco F. Resende 《Population and environment》2010,31(5):344-370
This research contributes to an understanding of the relationship between climate change, economic impacts and migration.
We model the long-term relationship (up to 45 years of projection) between demographic dynamics—particularly migration—driven
by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate changes in the Northeast region of Brazil. The region is of particular
relevance to the study of climate change impacts given its large human population (28% of Brazil’s population) and high levels
of impoverishment, having an extensive semi-dry area which will be severely impacted by growing temperatures. Ultimately,
the integrated model generates state- and municipal-level migration scenarios based on climate change impacts on the primary
economic sectors and their articulations with other sectors. Results suggest that the predicted climate changes will impact
severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country.
Finally, we discuss how the increased vulnerability of some groups, particularly migrants, can be factored into Brazilian
public policy and planning. 相似文献
13.
Three field studies compared helping behavior across a sample of 24 small, medium and large cities across the United States.
The relationship of helping to statistics reflecting the demographic, social, and economic characteristics of these communities
was then examined. The strongest predictors of city differences in helping were population size, population density, economic
purchasing power and, to a somewhat lesser extent, walking speed. Changes in several community variables over the past decade
were also associated with helping: population size, economic well-being as measured by both purchasing power and poverty rates,
and crime rates. These data were compared to similar data collected 13–15 years ago. 相似文献
14.
日本失去的二十年——基于中日人口红利比较的视角 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
"人口红利"是人口因素与经济增长关系研究的深入和发展。亚洲地区经济高速增长和工业化国家人口老龄化条件下经济增长,分别对应第一次"人口红利"和第二次"人口红利"。中国与日本相比,无论是经济增长模式还是人口转变模式,都有着极为相似之处,本文旨在通过对比分析中日两国人口发展与经济发展之间的变化,借鉴日本人口红利期的经验和教训,为中国充分实现第一次人口红利、创造第二次人口红利提供参考。 相似文献
15.
This study uses revised annual population estimates that incorporate adjustments from the 2000 Census to backcast demographic
change for U.S. counties during the 1990s. These data are supplemented with new post-censal population estimates for 2001–2003.
We use these data to examine demographic trends in the late 1990s and first years of the new century. Our findings are consistent
with a model suggesting that a selective deconcentration of the U.S. population is underway. Our findings also confirm the
occurrence of the rural rebound in the first half of the 1990s and a waning of this rebound in the late 1990s. Post-censal
data also suggest a modest upturn in nonmetropolitan population growth rates in 2001–2003. 相似文献
16.
Application of the Rural Development Index to Analysis of Rural Regions in Poland and Slovakia 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The main purpose of this research was to construct a multi-dimensional (composite) index measuring the overall level of rural
development and quality of life in individual rural regions of a given EU country. In the Rural Development Index (RDI) the
rural development domains are represented by hundreds of partial socio-economic, environmental, infrastructural and administrative
indicators/variables at NUTS-4 level (e.g. 991 variables/indicators describing various aspects of rural development in Poland;
340 variables/indicators in Slovakia). The weights of economic, social and environmental domains entering the RDI index are
derived empirically from the econometrically estimated intra- and inter-regional migration function after selecting the “best”
model from various alternative model specifications (e.g. panel estimate logistic regression nested error structure model,
spatial effect models, etc.). The RDI is empirically applied to analysis of the main determinants of rural/regional development
in individual rural areas in years 2002–2005 in Poland and Slovakia at NUTS-4 level. Due to its comprehensiveness the RDI
Index is suitable both to analysis of the overall level of development of rural areas and to an evaluation of the impacts
(impact indicator) of RD and structural programmes at regional levels (NUTS 2–5). 相似文献
17.
The American Community Survey (ACS) is a U.S. Census Bureau product designed to provide accurate and timely demographic and
economic indicators on an annual basis for both large and small geographic areas within the United States. Operational plans
call for ACS to serve not only as a substitute for the decennial census long-form, but as a means of providing annual data
at the national, state, county, and subcounty levels. In addition to being highly ambitious, this approach represents a major
change in how data are collected and interpreted. Two of the major questions facing the ACS are its functionality and usability.
This paper explores the latter of these two questions by examining “persons per household (PPH),” a variable of high interest
to demographers and others preparing regular post-censal population estimates. The data used in this exploration are taken
from 18 of the counties that formed the set of 1999 ACS test sites. The examination proceeds by first comparing 1-year ACS
PPH estimates to Census 2010 PPH values along with extrapolated estimates generated using a geometric model based on PPH change
between the 1990 and 2000 census counts. Both sets of estimates are then compared to annual 2001–2009 PPH interpolated estimates
generated by a geometric model based on PPH from the 2000 census to the 2010 census. The ACS PPH estimates represent what
could be called the “statistical perspective” because variations in the estimates of specific variables over time and space
are viewed largely by statisticians with an eye toward sample error. The model-based PPH estimates represent a “demographic
perspective” because PPH estimates are largely viewed by demographers as varying systematically and changing relatively slowly
over time, an orientation stemming from theory and empirical evidence that PPH estimates respond to demographic and related
determinants. The comparisons suggest that the ACS PPH estimates exhibit too much “noisy” variation for a given area over
time to be usable by demographers and others preparing post-censal population estimates. These findings should be confirmed
through further analysis and suggestions are provided for the directions this research could take. We conclude by noting that
the statistical and demographic perspectives are not incompatible and that one of the aims of our paper is to encourage the
U.S. Census Bureau to consider ways to improve the usability of the 1-year ACS PPH estimates. 相似文献
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Amal Kanti Ray 《Social indicators research》2008,87(3):409-425
The economic reforms initiated in India in 1991 have brought about visible upliftment of economic conditions of the country.
This paper examines if the economic process is associated with an enhancement of India’s social development in equal measure
in the reform decade of nineties. Ray (1989) considered thirteen social indicators of India and constructed the country’s
social development index (SDI) as a certain weighted average of the selected indicators, for the years between 1950–51 and
1975–76. The present work broadly follows Ray (1989) in tracking the social development in the decade of economic reforms from 1990–91 to 1999–2000. The movement of SDI in nineties
has been compared with the movements of India’s per capita income and plan expenditure on the social sector. The results show
that though there has been growth in the social sector, it is not by far quite encouraging and perhaps more needs to be done
in the social sector.
The views expressed in the article are those of the author and not of the institution he serves. 相似文献
20.
Maria Francesca Cracolici Miranda Cuffaro Peter Nijkamp 《Social indicators research》2010,95(2):339-356
This paper presents a new analytical framework for assessing spatial disparities among countries. It takes for granted that
the analysis of a country’s performance cannot be limited solely to either economic or social factors. The aim of the paper
is to combine relevant economic and ‘non-economic’ (mainly social) aspects of a country’s performance in an integrated logical
framework. Based on this idea, a structural simultaneous equation model will be presented and estimated in order to explore
the direction of the causal relationship between economic and non-economic aspects of a country’s performance. Furthermore,
an exploration of the trajectory that each country has registered over time along a virtuous path will be offered. By means
of a matrix persistency/transition analysis, the countries will be classified in clusters of good/bad performance. One of
the most interesting conclusions concerns the inability of most countries to turn the higher educational skills of the population
into greater economic performance over time. In addition, our analysis also shows that making an accurate picture record and
formulating related policy aiming at environmental care is highly desirable. It is surprising that only a few countries have
reached a favourable economic and environmental performance simultaneously. 相似文献