Migration and fertility in Malaysia: a tale of two hypotheses

2 hypotheses that are prevalent in the migration and fertility literature, are tested using data from the 1966-67 West Malaysian Family Survey. Particular attention is paid to conceptual and methodological frameworks of research and study of sociodemographic trends in Malaysia. Noting that confusion exists in previous studies of migration and fertility, especially in regards to comparing migrants and nonmigrants with residence background and migration experience, the 2 hypotheses are discussed: 1) the assimilation hypothesis in which a) place of childrearing (origin) is an important influence on fertility behavior (e.g. geographical differentials of fertility norms, family size preference), b) residence during childbearing period (destination) is a residential status that may be related to fertility (e.g. values, expectation, economic opportunities, contraceptive availability), and c) the assimilitation process can be expressed as a weighted combination of specific influences of either place of childrearing or childbearing; 2) the migration hypothesis in which a) there is something intrinsic to geographical shifts that cannot be accounted for by mere knowledge of the place of origin or destination, b) individuals are selected by age, education, ethnicity, and motivation, and c) the impact of migration is selected on specific fertility-related characteristics, e.g. the postponment of childbearing. The data in the study are drawn from a KAP-style national survey which utilized a stratified (size of place) probability sampling frame of 5457 married Malaysian women between 15 and 45 years of age. In view of the hypothesis, the identification of area of early socialization and adult experience measures the area of greatest influence on individual fertility behavior. Measures of migration are advantageous to approximating the true timing of migration and fertility in a causal ordering. To conclude, Bach suggests that fertility levels of migrants can be accounted for through the assimilation model, while migration is considered to have only a unique and small effect. The acceptance of the assimilation model also suggests that migration is related to fertility through exposing individuals to two divergent environments. Rural to urban and urban to small town migrants, however, require use of both the assimilation and migration models.     

Evaluating a basic-needs strategy and population policies: the BACHUE approach

The BACHUE model, a dynamic simulation technique developed within the International Labour Organization's World Employment Program, has been applied to the Philippines. The model simulates behavior and consequences in a number of key areas: fertility, marriage, migration, savings and expenditure, and labor force participation for households and a macro-model for demand, ouput, employment, and income. The design and development of the model are discussed in detail. The model was run for a series of 13 experiments ranging from nationlization of modern sectors, increasing self-employment, movement toward labor-intensive techniques, changes in growth rates of various sectors, and a reduction in fertility by 2% over 1976-1985, an increase over the 1% assumed in the base run. Runs R-2 to R-11 all showed that a change in basic needs is associated with significant declines in fertility, largely because of increasing education and decreasing mortality. Better economic conditions in rural areas also reduced migration. R-13 which examined the effects of a family planning program of moderate size on ultimate fertility, showed that even by year 2000 the effects were small. The population is reduced 5% over the run which assumes negative income tax and government subsidies to poor families but the gain in income per adult is less than 4%. Any real improvement in income as the result of family planning will take 40-50 years to achieve. Economic incentives, on the other hand, have much faster demographic results. The models also show that rural-urban migration is responsive to policy changes. Planners are cautioned that the model is not a picture of the entire range of human behavior but is an adjunct for use in analyzing interaction between policies.     

Migration,urbanization, and fertility in the Philippines

3 groups of women are compared in this study of the effect of migration on fertility in a less developed country: 1) rural sedentary; 2) rural to rural migrants; and 3) rural to urban migrants. The data are from a 1970 household interview study conducted by the Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado in Magsayay and Matanao, Davao Province, Mindanao, the Philippines. Social, economic, and mortality data were gathered from the household head and/or spouse for each household member and each child living elsewhere. Reproductive histories were obtained only from women for all women 15 years of age and older living in the 2 rural communities and living elsewhere. Age specific fertility rates and child woman ratios showed a declining gradient of fertility with social distance from the rural home communities. Age at marriage and education were positively associated with distance from the home communities and negatively associated with fertility. The data provide support for the hypothesis that recent migration is innovative, engaged in by more modernized persons who are motivated by aspiration to new goals, thus migration has a negative effect on fertility. Urbanization had its major impact after peak fertility years, 20-29, influencing urban migrants to bring their fertility under voluntary control. No such curtailment appeared in the late reproductive behavior of rural sedentary or migrant women. Urbanization seems to have a negative effect on fertility independent of migration. Young migrant women, in their teens, particularly those migrating to urban areas, did not fit the social mobility model; they tended to complete fewer years of school and married at an earlier age. These young urban migrants also had higher fertility than both rural sedentary and rural migrant females while in their teen years.     

Decoupling migration effects from income effects on reproduction in Central American migrant-sending households

Contemporary data for three Central American countries (Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Nicaragua) surveyed by the Latin American Migration Project were analyzed to determine if migration length and remittance transfers had an influence on fertility. The analysis was structured to separate societal influences on fertility attributable to migration from the income effects associated with remittance transfers. At the couple level, the odds that a birth would occur were negatively associated with an increase in U.S. remittance receipts and an increase in a wife’s migration duration. However, no correlation was found between length of male migration and couple fertility.     

The Continuing Incidence of Natural Decrease in American Counties

In 2002, more American counties (985) experienced natural decrease than at any time in the nation's history. The incidence of natural decrease has diminished since then, but remains near record levels. It is most common in rural areas remote from metropolitan centers. Spatial concentrations exist in the Great Plains, Corn Belt, and East Texas, with scattered pockets in the Ozark‐Ouachita Uplands, Upper Great Lakes, and Florida. A multivariate spatial‐error regression model demonstrates that natural decrease is a consequence of the complex interaction between fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period and is symptomatic of fundamental changes in the demographic structure of an area. Age‐structure changes resulting from protracted, age‐specific migration are a primary cause of natural decrease. Temporal variations in fertility also have a significant impact, but counties experiencing natural decrease do not have fertility levels below the national average.     

The Fertility of Married Immigrant Women to Canada

This paper uses the confidential files of the Canadian Census 1991–2006 to examine the fertility of married immigrant women (the presence of infants and preschool children in the household) around the time of migration. Then it estimates a proportional hazards model of first‐birth risks of migrants relative to natives from two years before to five years after arrival to Canada. While immigrants have relatively fewer births during the two years preceding migration, these rise after one year in Canada, consistent with both catchup and with concurrent events such as marriage happening during migration. Consistent with the socialization hypothesis, fertility levels vary across origins.     

Demographic and socioeconomic determinants of female rural to urban migration in Sub-Saharan Africa

Data from the 1986-90 Demographic and Health Surveys of Burundi, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Togo, and Uganda were used to examine the impact of fertility, child mortality, and socioeconomic and demographic factors on female rural-urban migration of six months or more duration. Several principles appear to direct the migration of high fertility women. High parity women are free from the male demands for more children. Rural areas lack basic amenities such as schools, health services, and modern housing. Additional children may strain family resources and require additional income from other sources. Husband and kin may have already moved. All data are nationally representative, with the exception of Uganda with an 80% sample. Women living in rural areas two years prior to the survey were included in the sample. Fertility and mortality data pertain to children aged under five years in the period two to seven years before the survey year. Multinomial logit analysis was based on an analytical model developed by Goldstein and Goldstein. High fertility was found to deter female migration to either urban or rural areas. Women, who had one surviving child aged under five years, were significantly less likely to move to urban areas only in Nigeria and Senegal and to other villages in Burundi compared to women without a recent birth. Women with two or more surviving children were significantly less likely (by 43-75%) to move to urban areas in five out of seven countries. Moves to rural areas were less likely by 36-61% in six out of eight countries. The evidence does not suggest that the reason for moves is to advance the children's material or physical well-being. The number of births, particularly in Kenya where fertility is very high in rural areas, acts as a deterrent to migration. Child mortality only constrains moves to urban areas. Unmarried women, single women, better educated women, and adults in their 20s are more likely to move to urban areas.     

A BRAIN GAIN OR A BRAIN DRAIN? MIGRATION,ENDOGENOUS FERTILITY,AND HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION

This study develops an endogenous growth model of migration to analyze the impact of international migration on the economic growth of a source country. When making their fertility and education decisions, adults may have the option of migrating to a foreign country. We find that changes in the migration probability or the extent of migration costs will lead to a trade-off between the quality and the quantity of children. When a host country cannot differentiate between the abilities of migrants, an increase in migration probability will raise a source country's economic growth. When low- and high-skilled workers are faced with different migration probabilities, allowing more low-skilled workers to emigrate will cause a "brain gain" in both the short run and the long run. However, relaxation of restrictions on the emigration of high-skilled workers will damage economic growth in the long run, although a brain gain may occur in the short run. ( JEL F22, J24, O15)     

Childbearing after Migration: Fertility Patterns of Foreign‐born Women in Sweden1

The present study provides an investigation of patterns in childbearing among foreign‐born women in Sweden from the 1960s to the 1990s. Event‐history techniques are applied to longitudinal population register data on childbearing and migration of 446,000 foreign‐born women who had ever lived in Sweden before the end of 1999. Period trends in parity‐specific fertility appear to be quite similar for Swedish‐ and foreignborn women, but important differences exist in levels of childbearing propensities between women from different countries of origin. Most immigrant groups tend to display higher levels of childbearing shortly after immigration. We conclude that migration and family building in many cases are interrelated processes and that it is always important to account for time since migration when fertility of immigrants is studied.     

The relationship between migration and fertility in an historical context: the case of Morocco in the 1960s

The relationship between migration and fertility was explored on the basis of data collected in a 1966 survey conducted in the 9 largest cities of Morocco. Existing contradictory findings suggest the need to specify and analyze the conditions under which fertility differentials by migration status are observed. The 2 theoretically most interesting conditions were considered: the historical context of migration; and the type of migration. A stratified area probability sample was selected with different sampling fractions within each city and city-strata. In each sampled household, 1 married woman under age 50 and 1 50 years and over, as well as single women ranging in age from 15-24, were selected at random and interviewed by female interviewers. The present analysis was limited to data for ever married women under age 50. The following variables were used as controls in the analysis of the relationship between migration status and fertility: the intermediate variable of age at marriage; measures of socioeconomic status; labor force participation of women; and measures of exposure to the modernizing influence of the city. If the 2 conditions of historical context and migration typology had been ignored in the analysis of data for Morocco's cities in 1966, meaningful fertility differentials would not have been evident. It was only after migration typology and historical context were considered that a more noticeable pattern of differential fertility emerged. Migrants of rural or urban origin who moved to the largest cities of Morocco after independence in 1956 had the lowest fertility of any group. The highest fertility was observed for women who moved to these cities before 1956. The fertility of urban natives and of urban migrants who moved before 1956 was between the 2 extreme levels. Controlling for the effects of age at marriage and various socioeconomic factors reduced the fertility differentials but failed to change their pattern. It was hypothesized that the lower fertility of recent migrants may be explained by social mobility.     

DETERMINANTS OF REGIONAL MIGRATION BY MANUFACTURING FIRMS

Economists have produced a sizable literature examining the role of labor migration in restoring wage and price equilibria among dispersed markets. A much smaller literature addresses another dimension of mobility, regional migration of entrepreneurs and firms. In this study we examine a model of the firm's decision to migrate, utilizing the Duns Market Identifiers data file. The model consists in part of an equation describing the decision to migrate, in order to determine the extent to which measured characteristics of the firm's environment explain firm migration. Additional equations in the model explain particular outcomes of migration: the growth in sales during a fixed interval after a move and the corresponding growth of employment.     

Fertility and adaptation: Indochinese refugees in the United States

"Levels of fertility among Indochinese refugees in the United States are explored in the context of a highly compressed demographic transition implicit in the move from high-fertility Southeast Asian societies to a low-fertility resettlement region. A theoretical model is developed to explain the effect on refugee fertility of social background characteristics, migration history and patterns of adaptation to a different economic and cultural environment controlling for marital history and length of residence in the U.S." The chief source for the data and analyses is the Indochinese Health and Adaptation Research Project (IHARP), San Diego State University. "Multiple regression techniques are used to test the model which was found to account for nearly half of the variation in refugee fertility levels in the United States. Fertility is much higher for all Indochinese ethnic groups than it is for American women; the number of children in refugee families is in turn a major determinant of welfare dependency. Adjustments for rates of natural increase indicate a total 1985 Indochinese population of over one million, making it one of the largest Asian-origin populations in the United States."     

ESTIMATING NET INTERRACIAL MOBILITY IN THE UNITED STATES: A RESIDUAL METHODS APPROACH

This paper presents a residual methods approach to identifying social mobility across race/ethnic categories. In traditional demographic accounting models, population growth is limited to changes in natural increase and migration. Other sources of population change are absorbed by the model residual and can be estimated only indirectly. While these residual estimates have been used to illuminate a number of elusive demographic processes, there has been little effort to incorporate shifts in racial identification into formal accounts of population change. In light of growing evidence that a number of Americans view race/ethnic identities as a personal choice, not as a fixed characteristic, mobility across racial categories may play important roles in the growth of race/ethnic subpopulations and changes to the composition of the United States. To examine this potential, we derive a reduced-form population balancing equation that treats fertility and international migration as given and estimates survival from period life table data. After subtracting out national increase and net international migration and adjusting for changes in racial measurement and census coverage, we argue that the remaining error of closure provides a reasonable estimate of net interracial mobility among the native born. Using recent U.S. Census and ACS microdata, we illustrate the impact that identity shifts may have had on the growth of race/ethnic subpopulations in the past quarter century. Findings suggest a small drift from the non-Hispanic white population into race/ethnic minority groups, though the pattern varies by age and between time periods.     

Fertility Change among Post‐1989 Immigrants to Israel from the Former Soviet Union

Research on the evolution of immigrant fertility patterns has focused on the expected reduction in fertility among immigrants from high fertility, less developed countries who arrive in relatively low‐fertility developed societies. The current research considers a different context in which immigrants from the low‐fertility Former Soviet Union arrive in a relatively high‐fertility setting in Israel. This research context allows us to test various theories of immigrant fertility, which cannot normally be distinguished empirically. Results from Cox multivariate regressions of parity‐specific progression do not support assimilation theory, which would predict an increase in fertility following migration, in this context. We interpret the very low fertility rates of the FSU immigrants in Israel, relative to all relevant comparison groups, in terms of the economic uncertainty and hardship experienced during a difficult transition period by immigrants who have high aspirations for social mobility in their destination society.     

Fertility adaptation of Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands

"After a short overview of fertility trends among Turkish and Moroccan immigrants in the Netherlands, based upon population and vital registration data, determinants of these trends are analysed using survey data on cumulative fertility as well as on desired fertility." The author concludes that although "a long time series of data is not yet available due to the fairly recent history of the migration of Turkish and Moroccan women to the Netherlands, it appears that their fertility level is declining. Migrant fertility levels are lower than in the countries of origin.... Factors in the decline of overall immigrant fertility are variables related to the country of destination: work and education, insofar as this education was received in the Netherlands." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Regional living conditions, migration, and family composition]

"On the basis of life history data of German birth cohorts born 1929-31, 1939-41, and 1949-51 hypotheses about the relation between regional context, migration and family formation are tested. Results of proportional hazard models do not show significant regional effects on first birth rates for stayers when sociostructural variables are controlled for. However, social background and employment status of [women], which are proved to be important factors concerning family formation, reflect differential regional opportunities on the labor market. For men including the indicator of marriage in the model makes the regional effect insignificant." The impact on fertility of rural or urban residence and of rural-urban migration is analyzed. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Toward a Theory of Fertility and Ethnic Social Capital

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to develop a conceptual model of ethnic fertility differentials that incorporates the intersection of both the macro societal influences as well as the micro actor level influences. It first contextualizes ethnic fertility differentials within the global fertility decline literature. Then it reviews the extant theories of fertility decline. It then turns to an examination of fertility choices in the developed world. A summary of three major approaches to ethnic fertility differentials is examined and then incorporated into a more eclectic perspective provided by Goldscheider. Finally, this paper merges the Goldscheider perspective with the social capital perspective, as applied to fertility decisions, into a conceptual model of ethnic fertility differentials. Lastly, the new conceptual model is used to reflect upon the current state of global fertility decline.     

Selectivity,adaptation, or disruption? A comparison of alternative hypotheses on the effects of migration on fertility: the case of Brazil

This study, based on Brazilian data from 1976, compared the fertility of migrants and stayers at both origin and destination areas. Observed patterns of fertility differentials were then analyzed in terms of 4 hypotheses of fertility behavior focused on processes of socialization, adaptation, selectivity, and disruption. In the study sample, 31% of migrants moved from rural to urban areas, 45% of moves were between urban areas, and 20% of moves were between rural areas. Among rural-to-urban migrants, only 1/3 moved from traditional to modern regions. To uncover the main patterns of migrant and stayer fertility differentials in the study population, the major flows of migrants by origin and destination were disaggregated by recency of migration, education, and age. The overall conclusions were as follows: 1) rural-urban migration flows need to be disaggregated into various modern/traditional cross-classifications (e.g., modern-rural, traditional-urban, frontier-urban) and greater emphasis needs to be placed on rural-urban, urban-urban, and rural-rural flows; 2) no robust quantitative measures of migrant-stayer fertility differentials held across migrant groups, implying that migrants differing in terms of age, education, origin, and destination are likely to behave in significantly variable fashion with regard to stayer standards of fertility behavior; 3) migrant groups with overall lower fertility levels, such as the young and better educated, are less likely to experience significant fertility reduction to bridge the origin/destination fertility gap; 4) rural-to-rural migrants do not appear to experience any lasting fertility reduction even when they move to areas with lower overall fertility rates; 5) urban-to-rural migrants tend to bridge a larger fraction of the uphill fertility gap than rural-to-urban migrants; and 6) there was evidence of partial adaptation for most migrant categories once disruption effects disappear and evidence consistent with the socialization hypothesis (no fertility reduction for at least 1 generation) was apparent for migrants originating in the least developed parts of Brazil, the frontier region, and the traditional-rural region.     

Land ownership,the subsistence constraint,and the demographic transition

We develop a novel model of fertility choice predicting an increase and subsequent decrease in fertility levels without introducing a quality–quantity tradeoff, mortality changes, or urbanization. The model highlights the roles of a subsistence constraint and non-wage income deriving from the ownership of land. We show that the sign of the effect of the wage rate on fertility depends on whether non-wage income is greater or less than a minimum consumption level. Suggestive evidence supporting the model, on changes in fertility from 1851 to 1891 across French départements, is provided. Finally, we embed our static model in a model of endogenous growth, and provide a numerical illustration of the working of the model.