The Paradox of Protestantism and Women in Elected Office in the United States

ABSTRACT

In cross-national studies, scholars have found that wealthy countries and those with a Protestant tradition are more likely to have higher levels of women in elected office. Even though the United States should then be high in this domain, it lags behind many similarly situated countries. We posit that one reason for this paradox is that Protestantism in the United States is far more socially conservative than is typical in other Protestant countries. To test our argument, we use state-level data on the proportion of women in elected office from 2002 to 2004 and survey data on church membership. We find a negative relationship between the percentage of Protestants belonging to churches associated with the National Association of Evangelicals, a lobbying group representing socially conservative Protestant denominations, and the proportion of women in elected office.     

Muslim religious accommodations in Western Europe: Do multicultural policies impact religiosity levels among Muslims,Catholics and Protestants?

How do religious accommodations for Muslim minorities shape religiosity levels among Muslims minorities? Answering this question is critical in the contemporary period, as Western European countries have experienced greater diversity in religious affiliations due to immigration. In this article, we address this question by analysing individual data across multiple waves of the European Social Survey (ESS). Our analysis improves on existing studies in that it (1) incorporates a greater number of countries than prior studies, (2) covers a historically novel period of religious accommodations for Muslim minorities and (3) more effectively controls for unmeasured country and time‐invariant processes than previous research. We find that in countries that have instituted greater religious accommodations, Muslim respondents generally report higher levels of religiosity. Interestingly, we also find that the greater institutionalization of religious accommodations for Muslims also impacts the subjective religiosity levels of Protestant majorities. We find no effect for Catholic respondents.     

RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER A NONLINEAR FISCAL POLICY RULE

In the aftermath of the recent debt crisis, many countries are implementing nonlinear fiscal policy rules, whereby the government's responsiveness to debt strengthens at higher levels of debt. This paper examines how a nonlinear fiscal policy rule affects the possibility of future insolvency in a small open economy. We find that (1) the criteria for a nonlinear fiscal rule to eliminate explosive behavior should be tighter than the ones proposed by Bohn (1998); (2) a country that adopts a nonlinear fiscal rule could substantially reduce the probability of a solvency crisis; and (3) a nonlinear fiscal rule allows a country to reduce the possibility of insolvency without large initial responsiveness. (JEL C63, E62, E63, F34, H63)     

Research Note: Religious Affiliation and Poverty Explanations: Individual,Structural, and Divine Causes

Abstract

Prior studies of people's explanations for poverty have relied upon individual, structural, and fatalistic explanations. This paper explores an additional explanation for poverty, divine intervention. Using a sample of 360 college students, I show that divine intervention is a distinct explanation for poverty. I then examine if or how six religious groups—conservative, African American, and mainline Protestants, Catholics, the nonaffiliated, and those with “other” beliefs—differ in their views of individual, structural, and divine explanations for poverty. Results show that members of conservative Protestant denominations are more individualistic than Catholics and the nonaffiliated. African American Protestants were significantly more structuralist than conservative Protestants. African American Protestants are more likely than conservative Protestants, and both are more likely than Catholics, the nonaffiliated, and those with “other” beliefs, to believe that divine intervention is an important explanation for poverty.     

Fiscal Consequences of the Refugee Crisis

The European Union faced an unprecedented influx of asylum seekers during the 2014–2016 refugee and migration crisis. The admitted refugees pose a critical challenge, but at the same time represent an opportunity for the host countries’ public finances. If the fiscal balance of immigration is positive, then migrants become net contributors to public budgets, helping to alleviate the aging related fiscal burden. However, we argue that this is highly unlikely to happen with refugees entering extensive European welfare states, at least in the short and medium term. By reviewing the existing empirical literature, we demonstrate that the research on the fiscal effects of refugee (or non‐Western) immigration almost uniformly supports the conclusion that the fiscal balance is going to be negative. The noble aims of humanitarian obligation to accept refugees seem to be in conflict with the pragmatic economic interest – a fiscally beneficial immigration – this time.     

FISCAL STABILIZATION WITH PARTIAL EXCHANGE RATE PASS‐THROUGH

This article examines the role of fiscal stabilization policy in a two‐country framework that allows for partial exchange rate pass‐through. Analytical solutions for optimal monetary and fiscal policy rules depend on the degree of pass‐through. Each country unilaterally uses its fiscal instrument to stabilize the costs facing exporters. The welfare effects differ strongly depending on the degree of pass‐through. For high levels, both countries are better off with the fiscal instrument and welfare is closer to the benchmark flex‐price level. For low levels, however, the unilateral equilibrium policy rules lead to high volatility in taxes, and fiscal policy ends up being destabilizing by transmitting exchange rate fluctuations. Because these results stem from strategic considerations by the two countries, the fiscal instrument is not used under policy coordination. In addition, imposing a monetary union increases welfare when pass‐through is low, including the case of local currency pricing. (JEL E52, E63, F41, F42)     

Athletic Involvement,Academic Achievement,and Aspiration

Abstract

Prior to World War II, religion in America was characterized by a tripartite system of Protestant, Catholic, and Jewish groups. More recently, Robert Wuthnow (1988), James Davison Hunter (1991), and others have argued that religion in America has been “restructured” into a two-party system, consisting of liberals within these religions on one side and conservatives on the other. Most empirical research examining the restructuring of religion in America focuses on the two-party division within Protestant religious advocacy groups, noting how some Protestant groups are politically more similar to Catholics than to other Protestants. Little work has examined the extent to which this phenomenon applies to Washington offices, which are formally tied to parent religious bodies, particularly Jewish groups. By conducting interviews with Washington office leaders and examining office materials and websites during the 108th Congress, this study seeks to answer the question: How does the thesis of the restructuring of religion in America apply to 15 Washington offices? Results suggest the thesis applies to both Protestant and Jewish Washington offices. The priorities of liberal offices, such as social welfare and economic justice issues, differ from those of conservative offices that focus on life and morality concerns.     

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY DESIGN AT THE ZERO LOWER BOUND: EVIDENCE FROM THE LAB

The global economic crisis of 2007–2008 has pushed many advanced economies into a liquidity trap. We design a laboratory experiment on the effectiveness of policy measures to avoid expectation‐driven liquidity traps. Monetary policy alone is not sufficient to avoid liquidity traps, even if it preventively cuts the interest rate when inflation falls below a threshold. However, monetary policy augmented with a fiscal switching rule succeeds in escaping liquidity trap episodes. We measure the effect of fiscal policy on expectations, and report larger‐than‐unity fiscal multipliers at the zero lower bound. Experimental results in different treatments are well explained by adaptive learning. (JEL E70, C92, D83, D84, E52, E62)     

Have cash transfers succeeded in reaching the poor in Latin America and the Caribbean?

We present original estimates of the quality of targeting of conditional cash transfer (CCT) and non‐contributory pension (NCP) programmes in Latin America and the Caribbean. Our contribution is novel because we use both national and international poverty lines; provide differentiated estimates for urban and rural areas; and compare the CCT and NCP programmes. We show that leakage to the non‐poor coexists with pervasive under‐coverage of all poor, including the extreme poor. On average, the CCTs cover only 50.5% of the extreme poor in households with children under 18 years of age. Similarly, the NCPs cover only 50.9% of the extreme poor in households with elderly members who do not receive a contributory pension. At the same time, 40.4% of CCT beneficiaries and 50.1% of NCP beneficiaries are not poor, highlighting the potential need for re‐targeting and re‐certification. In most countries, re‐targeting could produce a substantial double benefit in terms of poverty reduction and fiscal savings.     

Random Drug Testing and Religion*

Research recently has begun to examine the link between religion and social control. It has been noted that religion, in particular Protestant conservatism, does play a role in shaping public opinion, and as a result, public policy on crime, crime control, and justice. The present research examines the issue of public support for random drug testing by focusing on the role of religion, specifically religious affiliation, in shaping public opinion. Analysis of survey data from a city in the Southwest identifies two separate dimensions of public support for random drug testing–a utilitarian dimension that is grounded in safety concerns, along with a normative dimension that reflects conservative moral beliefs, including a concern with the “evil” of drugs. Evidence from the data also indicates that conservative Protestants, compared to liberal-moderate Protestants, Catholics, and those with no affiliation, display higher levels of normative-based support for random drug testing. Researchers are encouraged to further explore the role of religion in shaping public support for the development of drug policies and other more general social control policies.     

FISCAL RULES AND GOVERNMENT BORROWING COSTS: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

We find that the adoption of numerical fiscal rules reduces government borrowing costs in a sample of 101 advanced and developing countries for 1985–2010. We apply a variety of propensity score matching methods to address the self‐selection problem of policy adoption and find strong evidence that fiscal rules have large and significant treatment effects on lowering government borrowing costs in both international and domestic financial markets. The results are robust to changes in country sample and alternative estimation methodology, and are consistent with fiscal rules helping to build policy credibility by reducing the probability of default and the “risk premium” on government debt that compensates lenders for this possibility. (JEL E43, G12, H60)     

Negotiating Identity and Belonging: Migration Narratives of Protestants from Northern Ireland

This article draws on the migration narratives of Protestants from Northern Ireland, examining the impact of migration on issues of identity and belonging, particularly in relation to the Northern Ireland conflict. The life narratives were collected during the course of two studies relating to contemporary migration from Northern Ireland (2004-2007). The author concludes that the insecurity of Protestant identity continues to influence the significant migration rate of young middle class Protestants, most of whom are unlikely to return to live in Northern Ireland.     

Policy Research and Politics: Some Inferences from the “Coleman Report” for the Policy Role of the Social Scientist

Abstract

The major objectives in this paper are to examine (1) the distribution of socioeconomic characteristics for Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland, and (2) the processes of educational, occupational, and income attainment for each religious group. The analysis shows that Catholic and Protestant employed males are not appreciably different in their educational characteristics; however, occupational and income differences are more substantial. The Protestant-Catholic income differences, for example, represent about one-fifth of the mean Catholic income. The analysis also shows that the process of status attainment differs for Protestants and Catholics. The income returns to each additional year of schooling, for example, are higher for Protestants than for Catholics.     

Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility: Evidence From a Labor Market Reform

Whereas in theory individuals tend to postpone fertility decisions in times of economic uncertainty, empirical evidence on that question is scarce. Using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel (N = 4,548), the authors estimated the effect of economic concerns on the probability of becoming pregnant in the next year. They exploited exogenous variation in economic concerns induced by the announcement of a major German unemployment benefit reform as an instrumental variable and found that strong economic concerns were significantly related to lower fertility of women between ages 26 and 44 years cohabiting with a male partner. Jointly estimating the impact of male and female concerns in a model that allows for endogeneity of perceived economic uncertainty revealed that it was strong economic concerns perceived by the women that reduced fertility. The effect was driven by male main breadwinner couples, by couples with a medium household income, and by couples who already had children.     

The Protestant Reading Ethic and Variation in Its Effects

Max Weber's thesis that a “Protestant ethic” in a subset of Protestant sects created a “spirit of capitalism” is often interpreted as an explanation for the increase in economic growth in the Protestant parts of the West before and during the industrial revolution. One alternative pathway through which Protestantism might have contributed to high economic performance is that it was Protestantism's promotion of literacy that led to higher economic growth and not behavioral changes due to a Protestant ethic as suggested by Weber. To evaluate the “Protestant reading ethic” thesis, this study examines historical events for the period from 1500 up to the 1800s in nine countries. The study also explores available cross‐national quantitative data on economic development and literacy for the same period. The qualitative and quantitative evidence supports the overall thesis that Protestantism promoted literacy and rises in literacy likely contributed to the economic development. The evidence also suggests that the impact of Protestantism on literacy varied depending on what actions were taken by Protestant states and Protestant national churches to promote literacy.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEBT LEVEL AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT COUNTRIES

In this article we unify the traditional approaches to testing for fiscal sustainability considering the stock‐flow system that fiscal variables configure. Our approach encompasses previous ways of testing for sustainability. The results obtained for a group of 17 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries point to weak fiscal sustainability, as well as to the existence of cointegration between deficit and debt, confirming the relevance of the stock‐flow approach. Allowing for structural breaks and multicointegration turns out to be of critical importance to assess whether the fiscal authorities apply their policies looking for sustainability and whether, simultaneously, they try to stabilize real debt target levels. (JEL H62, E62, C22)     

EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES AND FISCAL DISCIPLINE: THE ROLE OF CAPITAL CONTROLS

How do exchange rate regimes influence fiscal discipline? This important question has typically been addressed exploiting the classic dichotomy of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes assuming perfect capital mobility. However, the role of capital controls cannot be neglected, particularly in developing countries. This paper analyzes the effects of capital controls on fiscal performance by focusing on dual exchange rate regimes. In a model in which the fiscal policy is endogenously determined by a nonbenevolent fiscal authority, dual regimes induce politicians to have higher fiscal deficits than under fixed and flexible regimes operating under perfect capital mobility. The model also shows this effect increases as fiscal authorities become more impatient. Dynamic panel regressions confirm that dual regimes lead to higher fiscal deficits than fixed and flexible regimes operating under unified rates. Using a dummy for pre‐electoral year as an indicator of fiscal authorities' shortsightedness, we also confirm that dual exchange rate has a more adverse effect on fiscal deficits as the authorities become more impatient. (JEL E50, E60, F31, F41)     

FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: SPENDING VERSUS REVENUE DECENTRALIZATION

This article examines whether the efficiency gains accompanying fiscal decentralization generate higher growth in more decentralized economies, applying pooled‐mean group techniques to a panel dataset of 23 Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries, 1972–2005. We find that spending decentralization has tended to be associated with lower economic growth while revenue decentralization has been associated with higher growth. Since OECD countries are substantially more spending than revenue decentralized, this is consistent with Oates' (1972) hypothesis that maximum efficiency gains require a close match between spending and revenue decentralization. It suggests reducing expenditure decentralization, and simultaneously increasing the fraction financed locally, would be growth‐enhancing. (JEL E62, H71, H72)     

The protestant ethic among college students in two Chinese societies

The Mirels‐Garrett Protestant Ethic scale along with several sociodemographic and attitudinal measures was administered to a sample of Taiwanese college students and a sample of Hong Kong college students in an attempt to empirically investigate the Protestant Ethic in the Chinese culture. Analyses indicated that both samples of Chinese students exhibited lower scores on the scale than American students. The data suggests that compared to Taiwanese students, Hong Kong college students embraced less the Protestant Ethic and just world beliefs, and were less alienated and sexually permissive. However, they adhered more to authoritarianism than their counterparts in Taiwan. Among sociodemographic measures, type of parenting ,was found to be the only significant variable for the Protestant Ethic scores in both samples. Students raised in the dictatorially‐parented families tended to show stronger belief in the Protestant Ethic than those raised in the democratically‐parented families. Religion was not related to the Protestant Ethic scores, suggesting that the Protestant Ethic as not Protestant but represented a general value orientation cutting across all social groups among college students in Taiwan and Hong Kong.     

SMALL‐ AND MEDIUM‐SIZED ENTERPRISE FINANCING AND SECURITIZATION: FIRM‐LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM THE EURO AREA

This paper analyzes the impact of securitization on access to finance for small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) in the euro area. Using firm‐level survey data on SME financing conditions, we show that an increase in securitization issuance reduces the probability of SMEs facing credit constraints and decreases the costs of bank financing for nonconstrained firms. Our results reveal that in addition to the volume of securitization, its type and quality matter for credit extension to SMEs. The paper thus provides empirical support for recent initiatives to revive securitization in Europe and for effective monetary policy transmission in the euro area. (JEL D22, E44, E51, E58, G21)