Crowding-out in savings decisions,portfolio default adoption and home ownership: evidence from the Chilean retirement system

This paper studies crowd-out effects across choices regarding different sources of investment and savings in the Chilean pension system (e.g., voluntary savings within and outside the retirement system, housing status, and default portfolio adoption). Because preferences over choice sets are unobserved and it is expected that individual unobserved characteristics may be correlated across decisions, I jointly estimate a dynamic reduced-form life cycle model of wealth accumulation. Simulation results indicate no short- or long-run crowd-out effects across voluntary savings accounts within and outside the retirement system. There is evidence that in the short run, there is crowding-out between mandatory savings and other forms of investments, such as home ownership or savings in the financial-banking sector. Results also show that in the long run, individuals treat home ownership and participation in voluntary retirement programs as substitute goods. Finally, the long-run effects of participating in voluntary savings programs are important in increasing active participation in portfolio decisions.

     

The Effects of Vesting and Locking in Pension Assets on Participation in Employer-Sponsored Pension Plans

This study assesses whether pension vesting and lock-in regulations affect participation in employer-sponsored pension plans. Specifically, the effects of Canadian reforms enacted during the 1980s and 1990s are investigated, which reduced vesting and lock-in requirements from employees being at least 45 years old and having ten years of continuous plan membership to two years of membership irrespective of age. To credibly identify these effects, the analysis exploits inter-provincial variation in the timing of the pension reforms using a difference-in-differences approach. The results show that employees aged 25–54 responded positively to the added protection of their pension wealth by increasing plan participation, despite the general trend of declining occupational pension coverage during this time. However, these changes also crowded out contributions to other retirement savings accounts. The implications of these findings for the optimal design of private pension systems are discussed.     

GENDER-COHORT SUCCESSION AND RETIREMENT AMONG OLDER MEN AND WOMEN, 1951 TO 1984

Long-term trends in occupational change and retirement policy have influenced the relative labor force participation and retirement patterns of subgroups of the older population. Structural changes in the economy have had a large impact on older men and women, pushing the former out of the labor force while pulling the latter in. Meanwhile, the expansion of pension programs for the aged has generally increased the early retirement of men under age 65. Time-series analyses of these trends between 1951 and 1984 point to the specific influences of these factors on gender-cohorts.     

Cohort Differences in Joint Retirement: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study

The dramatic rise and sustained participation of recent cohorts of women in the labor force has coincided with their increased attachment to the labor market. In this paper we use twelve waves of the Health and Retirement Study (1992-2014) and investigate how married couples belonging to more recent birth cohorts compare with their predecessors in terms of coordinating their retirement decisions. Using a multinomial logit model we estimate the labor force dynamics of dual-earner married couples and find that couples with wives belonging to more recent birth cohorts are less likely to jointly exit the labor force. Further, this declining cohort trend in joint retirement can only partially be explained by commonly observed socio-economic, employment, and health related factors that affect retirement decisions, suggesting an important role for cohort changes in preferences and social norms such as preference for work and attitudes toward gender roles.     

Research on the Accumulation Effect of Pension Income and Payments Caused by Progressive Retirement Age Postponement Policy in China

A retirement age postponement policy will not only increase pension income but also reduce pension payments, which will cause an accumulation effect on the size of the pension fund and relieve the intensifying pressure on pension payments. Based on the analysis of historical data in order to predict the population and pension scale in China, this research shows that the working-age population will gradually decrease, the supply of labor will decrease, and the demographic dividend will gradually disappear between 2018 and 2055 if the current retirement policy remains unrevised. According to three different retirement age postponement policy options, we establish that there are significant accumulation effects that can alleviate the pressure on pension funds. Among these policies, the postpone retirement policy option, which is based on the working period, is more conducive to a smoother policy implementation effect in the long term.     

Women and pensions: a decade of progress?

This Issue Brief compares changes from 1989 to 1998 in pension participation, accumulation, and allocation for employed women, versus employed men, ages 18-62. In addition, it provides an estimate of the gender "pension gap" in defined contribution accumulations, contrasts this with the gender "earnings gap," and provides explanations for these differences. Between 1989 and 1998, the percentage of employed women with a pension or retirement plan at their current job increased from 43 percent to 45 percent, compared with a decline from 53 percent to 52 percent for employed men. For both women and men, the percentage with defined contribution retirement plans increased dramatically, while the percentage with defined benefit pension plans dropped sharply. Between 1989 and 1998, the ratio of women's to men's defined contribution plan accumulations increased from 40 percent to 44 percent, indicating a narrowing of the gender pension gap. However, the narrowing was concentrated among the cohort ages 45-53 in 1998. The gender pension gap increased for women in other age groups. Gender differences in defined contribution plan accumulations can be attributed to differences in earnings and job characteristics. Between 1989 and 1998, for workers with defined contribution plans, the ratio of women's to men's earnings remained unchanged at 57 percent. Employed women with defined contribution plans are more than twice as likely to earn less than $25,000 per year than employed men with defined contribution plans, but almost five times less likely to earn more than $100,000 per year. From 1989 to 1998, the percentage of employed men with defined contribution balances invested mostly in low-risk, low-return assets declined much more than the percentage of employed women who followed that investment strategy. Whereas the percentages of men and women with retirement plans invested mostly in bonds were nearly equal at 31 percent and 32 percent in 1989, respectively, by 1998, 20 percent of women (compared with 14 percent of men) had their retirement plans invested mostly in bonds. The trend toward defined contribution plans and riskier retirement portfolios has resulted in significant wealth accumulation over the decade. In real terms, both men and women have greater retirement plan wealth, but increases have been larger for men than for women. Since there is no evidence that plan provisions vary by gender, improvements in the gender pension gap will come only with changes in women's labor force experience and investment decision-making.     

Political election on legal retirement age

In the context of the current debate surrounding the reform of pension systems, this paper analyzes the political economy of the legal retirement age. Using a life-cycle model in which individuals differ by age and by wage, we analyze the outcome of a majority voting process on the legal retirement age in a Pay-As-You-Go pension system. The results show that the older an individual is, the closer her optimal retirement age is to the status quo age. That is, the status quo retirement age acts as a magnet. Additionally, we find that the preferred legal retirement age of most of the working population increases when the pension system is more redistributive. We also observe a positive relationship between the preferred legal retirement age and the status quo age.     

Nursing Home Ownership

Abstract

Following the Second World War, the idea of the life course with distinct periods of education, work, and retirement became popular as a result of the alliance of interests of unions and management, with politicians seizing the opportunity to accommodate them. These “social partners” implemented benefit rules and created practices for using old age and disability to ease the exit of older workers. Although justifiable at the time, now those rules and practices hinder individual and employer incentives to invest in human capital and work environments that enable older workers to remain in the workforce. The article argues that the workforce environment of the coming half-century, which is relevant for persons born around 2000, is much different from that a hundred years earlier, which determined the opportunities for people born around 1900. People are healthier and live much longer and work environments are friendlier. The article argues that it is no longer justifiable to subsidize exit from the workforce around the age of 60 for healthy workers, especially in view of the coming labor shortage in Europe. It also argues that the introduction of the principles of the Swedish NDC pension reform in Europe would provide possibilities for flexible exit from the workforce and remove impediments to labor mobility in Europe, which are embedded in many of Europe's present pension arrangements.     

Changes in Firm Pension Policy: Trends Away from Traditional Defined Benefit Plans

In light of the recent concerns regarding the solvency of Social Security’s Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI), private pensions may play an increasingly important role in retirement welfare of US retirees. However, the private pension landscape has evolved in ways that may result in lower private pension wealth for retirees. One recent such phenomenon involves the conversion of traditional defined benefit pension plans to cash balance plans, which results in lower pension benefits for many workers. In this study, I investigated how characteristics of the firm’s workforce influenced whether the firm converted their traditional pension plan to a cash balance plan and how these characteristics related to the firm’s pension plan policy more generally. Using the Longitudinal Employer-Household Data and pension plan data from the Department of Labor/Internal Revenue Service and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, I found little evidence of workforce age distribution effects on the likelihood of DB plan conversion to a cash balance plan in the 1990s. More generally, I consistently found positive associations between firms with older and more female workforces and defined contribution plans during the same time.     

Convergence or Continuity? The Gender Gap in Household Labor After Retirement

This research examined 2 hypotheses about the effect of retirement on couples' division of household labor. The continuity hypothesis posits that the gender gap in household labor remains unaffected by retirement, whereas the convergence hypothesis expects it to close. The authors tested these hypotheses using longitudinal data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel Study (N = 1,302 couples). Fixed effects models revealed that male breadwinners doubled up on total hours of household labor across their transition to retirement. This rise was accompanied by a concurrent, albeit less pronounced, decline in wives' hours. As a result, the gender gap in household labor was cut in half. This convergence involved a moderate trade‐off in female‐typed tasks of routine housework and an increase in husbands' hours spent on male‐typed tasks of repairs and gardening. The study concludes that gendered patterns of time use change substantially after retirement, rendering couples' division of household labor more equitable in later life.     

Social Security Reform Ideas in Japan

Abstract

Japan has a complex social security system. This article discusses the demographic and economic situation in Japan as background for understanding the setting in which the social security system functions. Japan has a three-pillar system for retirement income. The first pillar is the social security pension plan; the second pillar is the voluntary occupational pension plan; and the third pillar is personal savings, including the personal pension plan. The most important part of the retirement income system is the social security pension plan, which paid benefits accounting for 64% of the total income of elderly households in 1998. The five Employees' Pension Plans are established on a compulsory social insurance basis. Most large Japanese employers have a mandatory retirement age. Over 90% of all employees, including public sector ones, must retire from their career jobs at age 60.     

Spouses’ earnings association and inequality: A non-linear perspective

We analyze the association between spouses’ earnings taking account of non-linearities along both spouses’ distribution of earnings. We also document the non-linearity of the relationships between earnings and labor force participation, earnings and couple formation, and earnings and number of children. Using simulations, we then analyze how changes in spouses’ rank-dependence structure, labor force participation and couple formation contribute to the upsurge in inequality in the U.S between 1967 and 2018. We find that an increased tendency towards positive sorting contributed substantially to the rise in inequality only among dual-earner couples, while it contributed little to overall inequality across households. Temporal and distributional heterogeneity are important, as earnings association had a more substantial role in the bottom of the earnings distribution and in recent years. The decline in couple formation contributed substantially to the rise in inequality, while the increase in female labor force participation and the fertility decline had equalizing effects.

     

AN EXPERIMENTAL TEST ON RETIREMENT DECISIONS

As part of the current debate on the reform of pension systems, this paper presents an original experimental test where subjects face three different payoff sequences with identical expected value. Two central questions are analyzed. First, whether the distribution of retirement benefits across time influences the retirement decision. And second, whether actuarially fair pension systems distort the retirement decision. The results indicate both that a lump-sum payment rather than annuity benefits is far more effective in delaying the retirement decision and that recent reforms that encourage the link between lifetime contributions and pension benefits to delay the retirement decision should take into account timing considerations. ( JEL C91, H55, J26)     

Demographic and employment shifts: implications for benefits and economic security

This Issue Brief examines factors affecting the population's age distribution and composition, such as mortality rates, fertility rates, and immigration. In addition, it examines factors affecting labor force composition, such as immigration, increased labor force participation of women, and retirement trends, and discusses the potential impact of these changes on publicly financed programs: Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and federal employee retirement systems. The discussion also highlights the implications of these population and labor force changes on employers, employees, and retirees. The elderly population--now 31.8 million, representing 12.6 percent of the population--is projected to experience tremendous growth between 2010 and 2030, when the baby boom generation reaches age 65, rising from 39.7 million, or 13.3 percent of the population, to 69.8 million, or 20.2 percent of the population. Growth in the elderly population has implications for retirement and health care systems. Population projections suggest that the traditionally pyramid-shaped work force, with a proportionately greater number of younger workers than older workers, will be replaced with a more even age distribution. Consequently, significant and continued modifications to benefit packages, such as changes in compensation structures in which earnings automatically rise with age, are likely to occur. Women's labor force participation began to accelerate in the mid-1950s, rising 75 percent among women aged 25-44 in 1991, although there is some indication that this growth may be flattening. With women comprising a greater part of the labor force, employers will be encouraged to develop and implement programs to better accommodate their needs. Increased life expectancy, a decreased percentage of entry level workers, changes in Social Security's normal retirement age from 65 to 67, and employer plans to raise the normal age of retirement or provide incentives to delay retirement, could raise the average age of retirement. However, other factors, such as poor health, other sources of retirement income, and individual preferences for retirement, could still dominate the retirement decision. The combination of increased average life expectancy guaranteeing more years of retirement to finance and rising dependency ratios increases the future cost of Social Security financing. Medicare financing is also an important policy issue because the program is projected to experience financial difficulties in the short term, resulting from explosive health care costs. In addition, Medicaid expenditures are consuming increasing amount of shrinking state budget resources--a large portion of which is used to finance nursing home care for a growing elderly population.     

State TANF Time Limit and Work Sanction Stringencies and Long-Term Trajectories of Welfare Use,Labor Supply,and Income

While the 1996 welfare reform increased employment and reduced the participation of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program immediately after its inception, little is known about the extent to which the reform and stringencies of time limit and work sanction policy features have impacted individuals in the long term. This study used the Survey of Income and Program Participation 1996, 2001, and 2004 panels (1996–2007) and a difference-in-difference-in-difference design to follow low-skilled single mothers’ trajectories of welfare use, labor supply, and income for 10 years after the welfare reform and compare how these trajectories differ by stringencies of state work sanction and time limit policies. The findings indicate that welfare reform had sustained impacts on reducing welfare use (TANF and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program [SNAP] program) and increasing employment. Stringent work sanction and time limit policies were associated with lower TANF participation rates in the long term, but only short time limit policies were associated with reduced SNAP participation. Neither stringent policy feature increased employment nor income. The differential effects by race were also examined and discussed.

     

Employment-based retirement plan participation: geographic differences and trends, 2010

LATEST DATA: This Issue Brief examines the level of participation by workers in public- and private-sector employment-based pension or retirement plans, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's March 2011 Current Population Survey (CPS), the most recent data currently available (for year-end 2010). SPONSORSHIP RATE: Among all working-age (21-64) wage and salary employees, 54.2 percent worked for an employer or union that sponsored a retirement plan in 2010. Among full-time, full-year wage and salary workers ages 21-64 (those with the strongest connection to the work force), 61.6 percent worked for an employer or union that sponsors a plan. PARTICIPATION LEVEL: Among full-time, full-year wage and salary workers ages 21-64, 54.5 percent participated in a retirement plan. TREND: This is virtually unchanged from 54.4 percent in 2009. Participation trends increased significantly in the late 1990s, and decreased in 2001 and 2002. In 2003 and 2004, the participation trend flattened out. The retirement plan participation level subsequently declined in 2005 and 2006, before a significant increase in 2007. Slight declines occurred in 2008 and 2009, followed by a flattening out of the trend in 2010. AGE: Participation increased with age (61.4 percent for wage and salary workers ages 55-64, compared with 29.2 percent for those ages 21-24). GENDER: Among wage and salary workers ages 21-64, men had a higher participation level than women, but among full-time, full-year workers, women had a higher percentage participating than men (55.5 percent for women, compared with 53.8 percent for men). Female workers' lower probability of participation among wage and salary workers results from their overall lower earnings and lower rates of full-time work in comparison with males. RACE: Hispanic wage and salary workers were significantly less likely than both white and black workers to participate in a retirement plan. The gap between the percentages of black and white plan participants that exists overall narrows when compared across earnings levels. GEOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES: Wage and salary workers in the South and West had the lowest participation levels (Florida had the lowest percentage, at 43.7 percent) while the upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast had the highest levels (West Virginia had the highest participation level, at 64.2 percent). OTHER FACTORS: White, more highly educated, higher-income, and married workers are more likely to participate than their counterparts.     

RETIREMENT,PERSONALITY, AND WELL‐BEING

This study investigates how two sources of individual heterogeneity—personality and gender—impact the well‐being effects of retirement. Using data on older men and women from the British Household Panel Survey and its continuation, Understanding Society, we estimate the causal effect of retirement on satisfaction with overall life and domains of life in the presence of personality characteristics. As retirement is often considered to be a choice and thus may be endogenous to individual‐level characteristics, we use the eligibility ages for basic state pension in the United Kingdom as instruments for retirement. We find that retirement increases leisure satisfaction of both males and females but not necessarily life satisfaction and income satisfaction. We further show that certain personality characteristics affect the well‐being of female retirees. For males, however, personality does not seem to matter in how they cope with retirement. (JEL I31, J26, A12, C23)     

Employee benefits, retirement patterns, and implications for increased work life

This Issue Brief examines why policymakers are concerned about the trend toward early retirement and how it relates to Social Security, Medicare, and employee health and retirement benefits. It reviews the rationale for the effects of economic incentives on early retirement decisions and includes a summary of empirical literature on the retirement process. It presents data on how employee benefits influence workers' expected retirement patterns. Finally, it examines the implications of public policies to reverse early-retirement trends and raise the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare. An employee Benefit Research Institute/Gallup survey indicates that there is a direct link between a worker's decision to retire early and the availability of retiree health benefits. In 1993, 61 percent of workers reported that they would not retire before becoming eligible for Medicare if their employer did not provide retiree health benefits. Participation in a pension plan can be an important determinant of retirement. Twenty-one percent of pension plan participants planned to stop working before age 65, compared with 12 percent among nonparticipants. Workers whose primary pension plan was a defined benefit plan were more likely to expect to stop working before age 65 (23 percent) than workers whose primary plan was a defined contribution plan (18 percent). Expected income replacement rates effect retirement patterns, indicating that as the expected replacement increases, the probability of expecting to stop working before age 65 increases. Twenty-two percent of workers with an expected income replacement rate below 60 percent expected to stop working before age 65, compared with 29 percent for those in the 60-69 percent replacement range, and 30 percent for those in the 70-79 percent replacement range. Workers expecting to receive retiree health insurance are more likely to expect to stop working before age 65 than workers who do not expect to have retiree health insurance. Twenty-one percent of workers with retiree health insurance expected to stop working before age 65, compared with 12 percent of workers not expecting to receive retiree health insurance. The Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program depends on obtaining sufficient revenue from active workers' payroll taxes to fund the benefits received by retired beneficiaries. Funding the program in the past was in large part effortless because of the relatively large number of workers per retiree. Today, funding the program is a greater challenge because the ratio of workers to retirees has fallen. Policymakers have been able to agree that reform of the program is necessary for its survival; however, the debate over options to reform the program is just beginning, and it is likely to be a long time before a consensus emerges.     

Retirement systems and pension reform: A Malaysian perspective

This paper reviews and assesses emerging issues in retirement systems and pension reform in Malaysia. The pension system models proposed by the ILO, the World Bank and the Geneva Association are compared and analysed, providing a useful conceptual framework for the design and reform of pension systems. This framework is then used to assess pension reforms in Malaysia, analysing the relative advantages and disadvantages for workers. The authors conclude by proposing a number of recommendations for retirement system design and reform.     

THE TIMING OF EXEMPTIONS FROM WELFARE WORK REQUIREMENTS AND ITS EFFECTS ON MOTHERS' WORK AND WELFARE RECEIPT AROUND CHILDBIRTH

I quantify the effects of welfare work exemptions on women's labor force participation and welfare receipt. This study, which also examines the age of youngest child (AYC) exemption, is the first to investigate the pregnancy exemption. Between‐state and within‐state variations in exemption length allow me to estimate the heterogeneous effects of each exemption by its timing and strictness. I find that the effects on labor force participation are driven by employment for the pregnancy exemption, inducing relatively stable welfare receipts. In contrast, the effects are driven by unemployment for the AYC exemption, which triggers more reliance on welfare after birth. (JEL I38)