新疆县域人口分布与社会物质积累协调发展的分析

基于新疆县域人口分布与社会物质积累协调性分析和区域社会经济发展水平和人口集中分布特征,本文围绕基础设施、交通和社会财富水平的协调发展,对新疆县域人口分布与社会物质积累协调性进行了综合评价。总体上,新疆人口分布与社会物质积累协调性较好的县市占的比例很低,说明新疆社会经济发展水平较低,且差异较大。     

吉林省人口增长与社会经济发展过程中存在的问题及对策研究

人口增长与社会经济发展的关系十分复杂,从人口学角度出发,运用五普及相关资料,对吉林省人口增长和社会经济发展进行分析,可以看到,虽然吉林省人口增长和社会经济发展总的形势比较良好,但依然存在诸如人口基数大、劳动力年龄人口增长快、老年人口增长快、城镇人口增长快等一系列问题,影响了社会经济的发展。     

负担还是红利：新疆人口迁入与经济增长关系的量化研究

针对新疆人口净迁入急剧减少、人才流失加剧、劳动力出现有限供给,政府劳动力政策出现偏差等现象,分别从贡献率与边际效应两个视角对人口迁入与经济增长的关系进行了量化研究。根据改进后的经济增长率分解法测算了人口迁入对经济增长的贡献率后发现,1978-2013年,人口净迁入使新疆经济年均增长1个百分点。根据新古典经济增长核算理论与拓展的C-D生产函数测算了劳动力对经济增长的边际效应后发现,人口净迁移率每提高1个百分点,经济增长率可以提高0.24个百分点。量化研究的结果表明,新疆一直以来是我国主要的人口迁入地区,人口迁入并不构成新疆经济发展的负担,反而为经济发展带来了红利。     

兰州大学人口研究室深入会宁县进行社会调查

今年4月1日至20日,兰州大学人口研究室7名教师和经济系经济管理专业16名学生,深入甘肃中部干旱地区会宁县,进行了一次社会、经济、人口调查。该县地处偏僻,自然条件差,经济落后,人口增长快,社会、经济发展和人口增长的矛盾很突出。为此,兰大人口研究室对会宁作了深入调查,探讨会宁县发展经济和解决人口问     

新疆两次人口普查间人口出生率变动成因及人口控制效果评价

新疆人口从第三次人口普查到第四次人口普查八年间已有较大的变化,人口数量从1982年普查13081633人增加到1990年普查的15155778人,比1982年增长了15.86％,其中新疆少数民族人口由7795101人增加到9460152人,比1982个增长了21.36％,新疆汉族人口由5286532人增加到5695626人,比1982年增长了7.74％。然而总体上看,新疆人口的增长势头在下降。1982年人口普查出生率为29.09‰,人口自然增长率为20.86％,到1990年普查出生率为24.67‰,人口自然增率为18.28‰,出生率下降了4.42个千分点。新疆人口增长势头的减缓是各种控制因素和人口学自身因素综合作用的结果。为正确估价各种因素对出生率下降所起的作用,本文采用标准化分析方法对新疆人口以及新疆汉族和少数民族人口的出生率下降成因作一定量分析,并且间接评价新疆人口控制的效果。     

从浙江省的新家庭计划活动看社会经济发展对人口转变的作用

人口转变总是与社会经济发展密切相联。人口的自然变动虽有其自身的生理生育规律，但只有通过社会条件才能实现。决定人口转变的终极原因是社会经济因素。社会进程中的人口转变深切地印证了这一点。因此要从根本上解决人口问题，最终还是要把着眼点放到社会经济发展的大环境上去。通过创造有利于人口转变的社会经济条件，加速人口再生产类型的转变。80年代以来，浙江省的计划生育工作取得了很大成绩。但那主要是靠行政手段、靠突击和孕后补救取得的。在人口过快增长时期，采取经济的、行政的手段来减缓人口增长是必要的、有效的。随着社会的…     

新疆人口结构的民族差异及其问题研究——基于六普数据的分析

中国人口正在经历着转型,过去单纯的人口数量问题变成了人口数量与人口结构并存的问题。新疆汉族生育率低于少数民族,人口结构问题突出,少数民族人口数量和人口结构问题同时存在。研究新疆的人口问题,必须考虑人口结构问题的民族差异。本文基于六普数据,从自然、地域、经济和社会等方面考察了新疆人口结构的民族差异,分析这些差异蕴含的各种显性和潜在的社会问题,并提出对策建议。     

浅谈新疆少数民族人口的计划增长问题

少数民族人口的计划增长,是在保证少数民族人口持续增长的前提下,控制人口的盲目增长,使新疆各民族人口质量得到普遍提高。新疆少数民族人口搞计划增长有无必要,如何能切实可行地实行少数民族人口有计划的增长,是一个很值得探讨的问题。这关系到在新疆少数民族人口中搞计划生育能否顺利进行,关系到少数民族人口的真正繁荣和昌盛。一、新疆少数民族人口计划增长的必要性新疆自古就是多民族杂居的地区。解放前,新疆各族人民在历代统治阶段的压迫之下,人口增长极为缓慢,直到解放初的1950     

人口增长与经济发展相互作用机制及实证分析——基于水平VAR的Granger因果分析方法和协整技术

本文首先分析了人口数量与经济发展相互作用机制,从环境承载力角度分析了一定数量的人口是经济发展的必要条件,而当社会生产力发展到在特定空间内相对稳定时,若不断增长的人口数量超过社会经济发展的需求与承受能力,这时经济发展就要受到人口增长的困扰。其次本论文运用Granger因果分析方法和协整技术研究了中国人口增长率与经济发展水平之间相互作用数量关系。结果为:在短期内,在5%的显著性水平下,人口增长率对经济发展水平没有显著影响,而经济发展水平却对人口增长率有显著影响;从长期看,人口增长率与经济发展水平之间具有显著的负相关关系。最后得出结论:只有控制人口增长(尤其是农村人口增长),才能促进经济发展;而只有促进经济发展,才能更好的控制人口增长,两者相辅相成。     

中国西部民族地区的人口生育与死亡状况浅析

西部民族地区包括中国少数民族人口最集中的8个省区,少数民族人口占全国少数民族人口的63.41%。受到这些地区本身历史的、自然的、民族的、以及社会经济发展水平等多种因素影响,其人口状况也表现为与中国中、东部很大的不同,具有自身显著的独特性。本文通过对历次人口普查资料和有关统计数据的分析,对中国西部民族地区的人口变动以及自然增长状况进行了系统地分析,得出了一些有意义的结论。     

Giving the population component its proper position]

In the discussion of the population component and its relationship to social development, we have to note the close relationship between material reproduction and the reproduction of human beings themselves. The unity of these reproductions is a necessary condition for social existence and development. In the past, whenever there was a problem of overpopulation, the tragedy of wiping out large numbers of the population also took place. This kind of tragedy eventually solved the problem of overpopulation and brought back a normal condition for economic development. A cycle like this happened continuously in the past. Under a socialist system today, the situation has been very different. The method includes a conscious adjustment and planned birth control in order to curb the speed of the population growth. Generally speaking, production patterns determine the development of the population growth. Under a certain production pattern, the development of the population reproduction is also dominated by the consumption pattern. A change in the consumption pattern will definitely have a great impact on the birthrate. A comprehensive plan is needed for population growth, and population control should match economic development. In a longterm plan, the population growth plan should be based upon a strategy for economic development and the changes which took place in the process of population reproduction. In short-term plan, practical measures aare needed to control the population growth in order to achieve harmony between the population and the economy.     

中国门巴族未来人口预测与民族地区经济发展研究

根据“五普”数据显示,我国少数民族人口为106430000人,占全国总人口的8.41%。虽然少数民族整体人数相对较少,但对少数民族地区的社会、经济发展起着重要的作用。本文采用因素法模型对我国人口数量较少的门巴族未来人口进行预测,分析未来50年门巴族人口的发展状况以及对民族地区经济发展的影响,对少数民族人口可持续发展,以及对民族地区社会经济发展有着重要的意义,为国家制定少数民族尤其是人口数量较少的少数民族人口发展规划提供政策依据,也有利于少数民族地区人口、社会与经济的和谐发展。     

The population problems in the countryside of China from the viewpoint of ecological economy]

There is a very close relationship between the population and the economy. The economy is the foundation for the existence and development of the population. Different socioeconomic patterns will determine population rules and population development, they have a strong influence on the social economy and the development of the entire society, and they may control the pace of social and economic development. In the last 30 years, excessive population growth has caused a great many difficulties for Socialist construction, overburdened agriculture, and created an imbalance in agricultural ecology. In order to understand the relationship between the development of the agricultural population and agricultural production, we have to understand to dominant position held by people in an agricultural ecology system. People have to control their own reproduction and match it with the productivity of the agricultural ecology system. Unrestrained population growth in the countryside is the main reason for an imbalance in China's agricultural ecology. Urgent action is needed to control the population growth in the rural areas, to fully utilized the available labor force, to promote the level of agricultural productivity, and to provide more employment opportunities. The final goal is to match China's huge agricultural human resources with its rich resources. investment should be encouraged to increase the wisdom and quality of the agricultural population. Both the quality and quantity of the agricultural labor force should also match development of agricultural productivity. In this way, a normal condition of agricultural ecology may be maintained.     

The role of population in social development]

This essay deals with population growth, varieties in population density, and their impacts on social development from the viewpoint of Socialism. The author's main argument can be summarized as follows: 1) population growth is a kind of social production, and it is more important than the geographical environment in relation to social development. Regarding population growth, varieties in population density, and the geographical environment as conditions of equal importance in social life is debatable. 2) the changes in population development should not be limited to the changes in number alone. As science and technology are developed, the impact of changes of population quality on social development is becoming increasingly important. 3) population growth is not the major force which determines the social outlook and social system, and it directly influences social productivity. One should not think that a large population and rapid growth rate will speed up social productivity, or that a small population and a slow growth rate will slow down the development of social productivity. The author quotes Joseph Stalin to support his argument.     

城市可持续发展能力环境影响评价经济模型

本文在传统的城市宏观经济运行过程模型的基础上,将世界银行所提出的真实储蓄加以修正,并引入到城市经济运行模式中,其中既考虑了人口(人口的增长)、经济(国内生产总值的增长速度)因素,又考虑到了社会因素(国内生产总值中的经常性教育投资和科研经费留存)、环境(大气、水环境污染)及资源(矿产)等因素,提出了城市可持续发展能力环境影响评价经济模型,并以此为基础分析了西安市的可持续发展能力。     

市场化养老模式研究——上海市亲和源老年社区个案及启示

20世纪70年代,中国迫于巨大的人口压力开始实行严格的计划生育政策。这一政策的实施,一方面使巨大的人口规模得到了有效控制,取得了举世瞩目的成就,另一方面也使得中国老年型社会在经济社会尚不发达的情况下先期而至。从未来经济社会发展情况和人口发展趋势来看,传统养老模式将面临前所未有的压力,甚至陷入无法超越的困境。在这种情况下,寻求新的养老模式成为学术界和政府共同关注的问题,而上海市亲和源老年社区以市场化运营方式对养老问题所做的探索,无疑给人们带来了诸多启示。这是一种有可能从个案走向模式的案例,它可能成为解决中国未来养老问题的一条重要途径。     

A preliminary inquiry into the interrelationship between population growth and economic development in Hong Kong]

Hong Kong includes Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Territory, and more than 230 islands. During World War ii, the population of Hong Kong decreased sharply, and the total number decreased to less than 600,000. Since the war ended in 1945, the population of Hong Kong has been increasing rapidly at an annual rate of 20%. By the end of 1981, its total population had increased to 5.2 million, including 1.25 million newly arrived immigrants. The average age is 24.8. People above the age 65 constitute only 6% of the total population. This shows that there is a sufficient supply of labor for local economic development. Because of continued economic growth, there has been a constant demand for more labor. Low wages provide an excellent condition for high-speed industrial development. An improved quality of professional workers and management personnel also contributes much to Hong Kong's industrial modernization. Because of high employment among the labor population, the general population earns income and spends a great deal, and this has created a rather active economy. General population growth trends include: 1) continued population growth will bring the total population to 6.3 million by the end of 1981, and the housing problem will become more serious; 2) a stable decline in the natural population growth rate will gradually change the population pattern to a low birth, low death, and low natural growth situation; and 3) improvements in science and technology, health care, and living conditions will reduce the death rate, and the average age will lengthen, and with the increase in old people, the demand for social welfare will also increase; and 4) there will be a shortage in experienced labor (professional technicians and high management personnel) in the 1980s. Facing the new situation, Hong Kong's economic structure needs reform, moving from a labor intensive enterprise to a capital-technological intensive enterprise. The market will be expanded and Hong Kong will earn more profit in China's mode rnization process.     

上海人口城市化和再分布发展态势

本文主要通过对历次人口普查数据的分析,指出城市人口郊区化与农村人口城市化共同加快推进,是上海人口再分布的主旋律;上海人口城市化仍相对滞后于经济发展和非农化水平;外来人口对上海人口城市化和再分布有着重要影响;人口城市化和再分布实质上是一个深刻的社会重构过程。     

The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth

The old age security approach is used to study the relationship between the rate of growth of the population and capital accumulation, within a Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework. It is shown that a decentralized economy will fail, in general, to achieve the Pareto optimal path. However, a pay-as-you-go social security scheme in which the old get transfers which are proportional to the number of their children may restore optimality. On the other hand, child support systems or subsidies to capital can guarantee the optimal capital: labor ratio, but not the optimal population growth rate, while a lump sum social security system can guarantee the optimal population growth rate, but not the optimal capital: labor ratio. Finally, in a monetary economy any policy aimed at correcting the interest rate will restore full optimality.An earlier version of this paper was written during a visit to the University of California, San Diego. The paper benefited from the comments of two referees.     

Some fundamental problems concerning the relationship between population growth and economic development]

The population growth rate is closely related to the quality of economic life, available funds for individual and social consumption, national income to be used for reproduction, and the labor employment situation. Since liberation, socialism has not been able to show its superiority, mainly because of China's large population figure, low economic productivity, low national income, and poor management in the relationship between consumption and accumulation. In order to solve these problems, we need to adequately control the pace of the population growth and match the rate of population growth with the pace of economic development. A way to increase national income is through saving and avoiding unnecessary waste. Social expenditures on education, culture, science, health and medical care, social welfare, and investment in the promotion of people's wisdom should all be increased. Meanwhile, the living standard of the people needs to be raised, and capital accumulation should also be managed so that funds will be available for industrial and economic enterprises. Existing inefficient production enterprises should be properly reorganized so that full employment may be achieved. In this way, the national economy will have more prosperity, and the people will benefit more from the Socialist policy.