National programmes to promote youth training

The importance of education and training to this country's national performance is increasingly recognized. The introduction of the Youth Training Scheme, offering a year's workbased foundation training to 16- and 17-year-old entrants to the labour market, marks a major advance on Britain's poor record in this field. This article describes the Scheme's aims and mode of operation, traces its long gestation and reviews the progress during its first year. It relates the Scheme to wider national objectives for the development of training and to complementary initiatives in education, and discusses how it might be evaluated.     

The nature of the work-leisure relationship

This article is concerned with the development of an analytical framework, developed from a social psychological perspective, for viewing the nature of the work ethic and its changed character in contemporary industrial life. Toward this end, an analysis of how a typical Western person's attitudes toward work and leisure are formed is presented. The interdependent influence of this attitude upon the worker's mental health is examined. The influence of social evolution in Western culture seems to be altering work-leisure attitudes and this phenomenon is studied. Finally, based on the previous analysis, social policy recommendations for increasing the self-actualizing potential of both work and leisure are offered.     

基于有理样条死亡假设的分数时点寿险净保费责任准备金

保险责任准备金是保险公司风险管理的重要度量指标,责任准备金的精确合理的测算,将会对保险公司的健康发展起着极其重要的作用。分数时点净保费责任准备金的测算依赖于精算假设,本文在提出一类有理样条死亡假设的基础上,研究了终身寿险的分数时点净保费责任准备金的计算问题。我们得到了其理论计算公式和上下界范围,探讨了调节参数的变化对净保费责任准备金的影响。数据分析表明:分数时点责任准备金对调节参数的变化比较敏感,目前常用的UDD假设下的责任准备金测算值恰是本文方法下的一个边界。所以基于有理样条估计方法的分数时点责任准备金测算在实务中具有很强的灵活性,对保险公司责任准备金风险管理具有重要的指导意义。     

The effect of framing on the choice of co-payment policies, reducing moral hazard and post-choice-evaluation

This study analyses the impact of two financially equivalent frames of a co-payment policy on the choice between a co-payment policy and one with full cost recovery. It also examines the incentive effect of the co-payment and the post-choice evaluation on the pay-offs in case of unexpected losses, using the example of health insurance. Two experimental studies form the context for an empirical investigation of the theoretical considerations. We examine the framing-related effects of a rebate compared to a premium reduction frame of a co-payment policy. The results confirm that a rebate frame has a positive effect on the intention to choose a co-payment policy. The intention to avoid claims in the premium reduction frame is greater than in the rebate frame. In case of unexpected losses because of high insurance claims, the rebate frame results in less dissatisfaction and causes fewer regret effects. The results support the theoretical considerations that insurance companies should account for these differences and design their co-payment policies according their priorities, either with a rebate or a premium reduction frame.     

强制性约束下企业信息安全投资与网络保险的最优决策分析

研究了强制性约束下企业信息安全投资和网络保险的最优决策问题,对比了可观测企业损失和不可观测企业损失两种情形下基于破产概率约束的最优安全投资和网络保险保费厘定。研究结果表明：在可观测损失和公平保费情况下,当最大化单个企业的期望效用时,存在最优安全投资额,并且政府补贴和强制性约束都可以激励企业增加安全投资;但是当最大化所有企业效用时,只有强制性约束才能增加企业安全投资使得总效用最大化,并且企业的最优安全投资与损失的可观测程度无关。在不可观测损失情况下,当最大化单个企业期望效用时,企业的安全投资增大,而最大化所有企业效用时,存在正网络外部性,即任何企业均不敢轻易的减少安全投资,即使同在一个网络中的其他企业减少了安全投资。此外,在破产概率约束下,随着保费的增加,当损失可观测时,企业的安全投资也增加,但期望效用减少了;而当损失不可观测时,企业的安全投资和期望效用均减少。本文所得结论对政府设定强制性标准,以及企业利用安全投资和网络保险进行信息安全风险控制具有较好的参考价值。     

寿险定价的线性优化模型

实际的金融市场中存在多种不同期限的利率。在定义最大累积函数的基础上建立了一个称为“收支问题”的线性规划模型,这个模型的最优值刻画了合理安排保费资金的投资期限所能够达到的最大保险支付水平,从而给出了多利率条件下寿险费率的计算依据。使用局部优化方法证明了收支问题最优解的两个性质,这些性质说明在满足保险支出的条件下,保险收入资金应该优先考虑期限较长（即利率较大）的投资。对于典型的寿险产品模型,给出了最优解的结构,针对两个具体实例列出了计算结果。结果表明,在保险费率的计算中,起主要作用的是最大期限的利率,其次是不同利率的一个综合水平。     

Boas Shamir: The person,his impact and legacy

This article is divided into three parts. In the first part, Galit, Boas's spouse, chronologically reviews the five periods of Boas's professional life—describing what is special to each period and what connects them—while relating to the centrality of values and the secret of charisma according to Boas Shamir. In the second part, Ronit, Boas's colleague, and his first doctoral student, relates to his role as mentor and presents the unique and novel theoretical perspectives that Boas developed concerning the identities of leaders and followers, and how they interact within the charismatic relationship. In the third part, Micha, Boas's friend and colleague, analyzes the relationship between Boas's personal history, the psycho-historical background in which he grew up, and the origins and uniqueness of his oeuvre.     

Modeling for insights,not numbers: the experiences of the energy modeling forum

It has often been contended that the primary goal of policy modeling should be the insights quantitative models can provide, not the precise-looking projections—i.e. numbers—they can produce for any given scenario. Students of the energy policy process, in particular, have noted that preoccupation with the plethora of detailed quantitative results produced by large-scale computer models has substantially impeded their influence on key policy decisions. The creation of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) at Stanford University in 1976 represents one potential remedy for that situation. The EMF was formed to foster better communication between the builders and users of energy models in energy planning and policy analysis. The EMF operates through ad hoc working groups, composed of national and, more recently, international energy modeling and policy experts. These working groups conduct studies concentrating on a single energy topic. The diversity of backgrounds of the working group members ensures that the language of the EMF studies is English, not computer. Each working group identifies existing models relevant to the study's focus. A series of tests is then designed by the group to illuminate the models' basic structure and behavior. A comparison of results is published in a widely distributed report that identifies the models' strengths and weaknesses in the context of the study's topic. Seven EMF studies have been initiated to date: (1) Energy and the economy, (2) Coal in transition, (3) Electric load forecasting, (4) Aggregate elasticity of energy demand, (5) US oil and gas supply, (6) World oil and (7) Macroeconomic impacts of energy shocks. Each EMF study has broadened the understanding of the nature of the relevant policy issues and the models that have been, are, or could be used to address them. The present paper describes how each study's key insights were developed in the context of a simplified analytical framework that provided the proper perspective for understanding the model results.     

保险创新与创新型寿险产品——“基金连锁”

“基金连锁”是一种融保险保障和投资收益为一体、代表了国际保险业最新潮流和趋势的非传统寿险产品。本文较系统地研究了“基金连锁”产品区别于传统型寿险产品的创新实质和基本特征,详细介绍并分析了国际“基金连锁”产品产生的历史背景和发展趋势,结合美国变额寿险产品的运用和兼管政策,提出了我国有关监管建议和策略。     

Reducing exposure to exchange rate risk: A case study

During the last decade, with the advent of large fluctuations in the values of currencies, business managers came to realize that effective international financial management could be a major contributor to a firm's profitability. This same period showed aggressive marketing by U.S. firms in foreign markets. The resulting expansions have led to requirements for increased knowledge concerning foreign consumer behavior, pricing procedures and trade regulations. In addition, transactions with foreign customers have resulted in a more complex cash management environment. The firms may desire all payments received to be denominated in U.S. dollars, but such a policy could result in reduced exports if potential foreign importers wished to make payment in their own currency. Consequently, the U.S. firms should accomodate importers' desires and then implement a strategy to deal with the exchange rate risk. This paper develops such a strategy and illustrates how the strategy can be applied to a realistic case.     

Cyber Security Risk Management: Public Policy Implications of Correlated Risk,Imperfect Ability to Prove Loss,and Observability of Self‐Protection

The correlated nature of security breach risks, the imperfect ability to prove loss from a breach to an insurer, and the inability of insurers and external agents to observe firms’ self‐protection efforts have posed significant challenges to cyber security risk management. Our analysis finds that a firm invests less than the social optimal levels in self‐protection and in insurance when risks are correlated and the ability to prove loss is imperfect. We find that the appropriate social intervention policy to induce a firm to invest at socially optimal levels depends on whether insurers can verify a firm's self‐protection levels. If self‐protection of a firm is observable to an insurer so that it can design a contract that is contingent on the self‐protection level, then self‐protection and insurance behave as complements. In this case, a social planner can induce a firm to choose the socially optimal self‐protection and insurance levels by offering a subsidy on self‐protection. We also find that providing a subsidy on insurance does not provide a similar inducement to a firm. If self‐protection of a firm is not observable to an insurer, then self‐protection and insurance behave as substitutes. In this case, a social planner should tax the insurance premium to achieve socially optimal results. The results of our analysis hold regardless of whether the insurance market is perfectly competitive or not, implying that solely reforming the currently imperfect insurance market is insufficient to achieve the efficient outcome in cyber security risk management.     

‘It is not fair that you do not know we have problems’: Perceptual distance and the consequences of male leaders' conflict avoidance behaviours

This study investigates perceptual distance in terms of managers' conflict avoidance behaviour and its consequences for subordinates. We argue that perceptual distance, or the disagreement between a manager's perception and that of his or her subordinates of his or her conflict avoidance, is a genuine phenomenon. We examine the extent to which the perceptual distance regarding managers' avoidance behaviour influences a team's justice climate as well as the role of gender. The data collected from three multinational companies in China show that the perceptual distance of a male manager's avoidance behaviour exists and that it is associated with a negative justice climate within the team. These findings provide evidence of gender's effect on leadership and highlight the benefits of female leadership.     

The Skilled Wage Premium and the Growth of Small Firms in UK Manufacturing

We document the role of small firms in explaining the growth of the skilled/unskilled wage premium in UK manufacturing over the 1980s. Our major findings are (i) the share of manufacturing employment in small firms' (0–99) employees has risen by 35 percent over this period; (ii) small firms pay more unequal wages than do large firms: the non-manual/manual wage premium is 1.53 in small firms and 1.50 in firms of over 1,500 workers; (iii) the growth in small firms over the period explains about 20 percent of the rise in the skilled/unskilled wage premium.     

Policies as theories

The received view of the scientific method, as represented for instance by logical positivism, has only historical interest for the specialists, but it is still widely, if implicitly, held by decision and policy analysts. On the other hand, recent developments in philosophy and the history of science, which stress the fallibility of theories and the social and historical character of scientific knowledge and criteria, have not yet been assimilated by analysts. This paper argues that these recent methodological developments offer important insights into many theoretical and professional problems facing students of policy-making. Thus, an appreciation of the craft aspects of scientific inquiry not only clarifies the subtle relationship between theory and practice in any type of systematic analysis, but also suggests a conceptual model of the analyst's task that is quite different from the conventional decision-making paradigm. Again, Popperian and post-Popperian views of the evolution of knowledge are shown to be relevant to the evaluation of policies and to the study of their development. Particularly important in this respect is the notion, due to Lakatos, of problem shifts in competing research programmes. Even the role of advocacy in policy arguments appears in a new light after we realize the importance of persuasion and propaganda in the history of scientific development. There are reasonably well-defined situations in which the use of persuasion, far from violating the analyst's code of professional behavior, is not only unavoidable but also rationally justifiable.     

Residential Mortgages and Public Policy: What to do with Fannie and Freddie?

The current debate on U.S. housing policy focuses on the role of the government in supporting the mortgage market. Existing organizations (Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac) are in conservatorship status, and Congress is considering alternative structures and guarantees including the Johnson‐Crapo bill, to provide catastrophic insurance in support of the coverage from private companies. The resolution of this issue is complicated by the various activities involved in the issue—investment securities, public policy, macroeconomics, accounting, and insurance. This article reviews the impact of these activities on U.S. housing, with a discussion of the feasibility of creating a catastrophic insurance program similar to that of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The federal government has successfully operated catastrophic insurance programs in support of private sector initiatives, and this experience—while certainly not perfect—may be a reasonable approach to the current Fannie/Freddie dilemma.     

Equitable Taxation and the Provision of Health Insurance Subsidies

Current U.S. income tax laws allow many taxpayers to exclude from taxable income part or all of the cost of acquiring health insurance through an employer‐sponsored benefit plan. This favorable tax treatment generally applies regardless of whether the employer or employee actually pays the health insurance premiums. We describe the effects of this tax policy on the U.S. tax system's horizontal and vertical equity. We also explain how taxpayers covered by employer‐sponsored plans are significantly subsidized by the government in acquiring health insurance, whereas taxpayers who acquire health insurance by other means or who are not covered by health insurance at all receive no such government assistance. We conclude that any prospective health‐care policy initiatives, including modifications to the 2010 health‐care reforms, should contemplate both the horizontal and vertical equity of the tax treatment of health insurance premiums.     

Developing planning models

Mr. Holloway joined the Gulf Oil Corporation in 1939. His previous publications are in the fields of chemical engineering, statistics and computing.He is now the Senior Adviser on Planning Systems and member of Gulf's European Planning Council.The paper presents the author's view that linear programming is an efficient vehicle for long range planning, that it is more comprehensive and when properly structured requires no more computer time than the perhaps more conventional simulation models.Further, that it has the great advantage that the planner himself can control not only the data content of his model, but can also control the way in which the data is treated within the model even to the extent of making drastic matrix changes.     

逆向选择条件下带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型及其Pareto改进性研究

为了更有效的规避影响保险市场交易效率的逆向选择问题，本文分投保人风险类型为两种和多种情形建立了带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型，首次提出可以用奖励金和惩罚金有效甄别投保人的风险类型。该模型根据投保人第一个保险期内的索赔情况在第二个保险期对其进行奖励或惩罚，高风险类型的投保人如果选择为低风险类型投保人设计的保险契约，则其在第二阶段受到惩罚的概率要远远大于得到奖励的概率，即风险越高的投保人越害怕惩罚金，因此所建模型满足斯彭斯-莫里斯分离条件。带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型中保险公司的期望利润仍然为0，并不会给投保人带来额外的经济负担，却能够实现对传统部分保险契约简单重复两次的严格帕累托改进。最后采用一个算例说明了该模型的有效性。     

Preemptive Policy Experimentation

We develop a model of experimentation and learning in policymaking when control of power is temporary. We demonstrate how an early office holder who would otherwise not experiment is nonetheless induced to experiment when his hold on power is temporary. This preemptive policy experiment is profitable for the early office holder as it reveals information about the policy mapping to his successor, information that shapes future policy choices. Thus policy choices today can cast a long shadow over future choices purely through information transmission and absent any formal institutional constraints or real state variables. The model we develop utilizes a recent innovation that represents the policy mapping as the realized path of a Brownian motion. We provide a precise characterization of when preemptive experimentation emerges in equilibrium and the form it takes. We apply the model to several well known episodes of policymaking, reinterpreting the policy choices as preemptive experiments.     

Pre-investment planning

Effective control of a firm's future depends upon sound pre-investment planning before further commitments are made. Therefore, the firm's situation has to be strategically characterized. In this article the author develops a strategic approach towards preplanning of investments. This approach can be helpful in suggesting a relevant investment policy. In this respect attention will be paid to acceptance criteria, financing considerations and types of commitment.