Decision analysis and strategic policy formulation

The role of decision analysis in the context of business policy is explored with the aid of a case study of a reorganization situation. This case study provides insights about the implementation of decision analysis in the policy field and also indicates guidelines for managers to follow in adapting the decision analysis approach to the resolution of the policy formulation problem.     

Planning for strategic decision support systems

The emergence of Strategic Decision Support Systems has opened up new vistas for the true integration of formal models into the strategic planning process. However, with these new opportunities also come the need to develop planning mechanisms that will permit these sophisticated systems to achieve their potential. The process of strategic planning for Strategic Decision Support Systems that is described in this article serves to cast the organization's overall plans, strategies and strategic attributes into a framework that can be used to develop formal SDSS plans.     

Designing communication support systems for strategic planning

While as a distinct and intermittent managerial activity planning is slowly dying, in a systematic and continuous context it is rapidly growing! More and more organizations are beginning to realize that planning entails ongoing learning and adaptation of people rather than one-shot, pseudo-scientific analysis of abstract problems. To facilitate this fundamental transformation in organizational thinking, new electronic management support systems are being created. These systems will facilitate collaborative problem exploration through improved managerial communication. In effect, they will actively assist managers to understand and manage the relationships between the strategic planning process and the other corporate processes such as budgeting, capital investment, performance evaluation and employee compensation.     

Rationality in policy making: Two concepts not one

The concept of rationality, central to any analysis of policy making, is shown to be dual. The qualitative concept of rationality, broadly equivalent to ‘appropriate’ directs the policy analyst to an examination of information flow (since it may be defective), of goals (since these may conflict), and of the momentum of decisions (since it can produce irrationality). The quantitative concept of rationality, broadly equivalent to ‘efficient’ is itself divisible into two models (‘ends–means’ and ‘alternative behaviour’). Either, however, directs the policy analyst to an exploration of alternatives (since ideally all should be known) and of evaluative techniques (since ideally these should indicate the best alternative). Quantitative, but not qualitative, rationality is frontally challenged by some theorists (notably Lindblom) and claimed to be insufficient by others (notably Dror).     

A decision support methodology for strategic planning in maritime transportation

This paper presents a decision support methodology for strategic planning in tramp and industrial shipping. The proposed methodology combines simulation and optimization, where a Monte Carlo simulation framework is built around an optimization-based decision support system for short-term routing and scheduling. The simulation proceeds by considering a series of short-term routing and scheduling problems using a rolling horizon principle where information is revealed as time goes by. The approach is flexible in the sense that it can easily be configured to provide decision support for a wide range of strategic planning problems, such as fleet size and mix problems, analysis of long-term contracts and contract terms. The methodology is tested on a real case for a major Norwegian shipping company. The methodology provided valuable decision support on important strategic planning problems for the shipping company.     

基于策略型消费者的最优动态定价与库存决策

随着互联网技术的发展,越来越多的厂商采用动态定价的策略,尤其是当厂商面临需求不确定性时.然而,随着这种策略的广泛应用,消费者变得越来越"聪明".他们会比较厂商在不同阶段实行的不同价格,愿意等待并选择最好的购买时机.通过运用经典的Stackelberg博弈模型和机制设计理论,讨论面对消费者的这种策略行为,厂商如何在确定性和不确定性需求情形下,决定自己的库存和相应的价格.结论表明,厂商可以根据市场上高价值和低价值消费者的构成,通过适当的库存数量和价格设定,增大消费者买不到产品的风险,从而减少消费者的等待行为.文中的理论方法值得相关行业的借鉴和应用.     

Top management team constellations and their implications for strategic decision making

Two major themes in the upper echelon decision making literature are the efficacy of the CEO and the composition of the top management team (TMT). Little research has examined their intersection. This study addresses the call to reveal the social processes within TMTs, by focusing on CEO-TMT member interaction in decision making. Drawing on video ethnographic data of two TMTs, we explore the patterns of interactions between CEOs and TMT members in their strategic decision making meetings. Through an analysis of 20 issue discussions, we identify five “constellations”, a team level construct capturing the core relational dynamics that are created through mutual CEO-TMT member influence during a team's discussion of a strategic issue. We explain how these constellations unfold and their implications for the processes and outcomes of TMT strategic decision making. We then elaborate how our findings contribute to the TMT and upper echelon literatures, as well as our understanding of team politics.     

Multiple criteria decision making for maritime investment policy in the developing countries

This model for multiple criteria decision making enables one to select an optimal investment policy for developing the marine industry in developing countries. The model is composed of: the mathematical model of national economy (LP model) for optimizing an investment scheme under economic and technological constraints; the model of I-O analysis for estimating the change of industrial structures induced by the investment; and the decision making model to which the results of the preceding models are fed back so as to enable the policy planner to select a feasible policy based on his own multiple criteria such as the value of GDP growth rate, international payments, unemployment rate, etc. Due consideration is paid in this study to the role of the marine industries, e.g. shipping and ports, which can be said to be the pivot of economic development in a developing country in connection with its foreign trade policy. A case study is carried out to verify this hypothesis.     

Measuring strategic decision making efficiency in different country contexts: A comparison of British and Turkish firms

This paper compares the relative efficiency of the strategic decision making (SDM) processes of British and Turkish firms. The technique of data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to measure the relative efficiency of these firms. The evidence obtained by the DEA analysis reveals that the Turkish firms tend to be superior to the British firms in terms of their SDM efficiency. There is a significant difference in scale returns with respect to the country of origin of the firms. The analysis of the improvement potential of inputs indicates that Turkish firms place more emphasis on managing environmental turbulence to enhance their SDM efficiency, while British firms tend to overly focus on the design of an appropriate organizational structure. However, no significant difference was noted between the two groups of firms with regard to the level of resources and effort exerted on formal strategic planning practices. The analysis of output deficits reveals that there is a significant difference between British and Turkish firms in the sources of inefficiency.     

An acyclic outranking model to support group decision making within organizations

A model to support group decision making within the board of any organization to select an alternative from a short list is proposed using a pairwise relation: consensus relation.This relation avoids elementary cyclicity which is a general shortcoming of previous models and satisfies transitivity under special conditions (weak transitivity). This relation is represented by a triangle-free graph and has important implications for Public Choice Theory such as the special relevance of the 2/3 majority rule and for Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) to improve outranking models.The proposed model can be easily applied as shown by the example presented.The contributions obtained from this model do not only include the selection of the recommended alternative(s) but also very useful representations and measures of the level of cultural consensus and dissent of the board members which can be used to improve their composition and behavior.     

A statistical framework for strategic decision making with AHP: Probability assessment and Bayesian revision

A probability assessment framework is outlined for an organizational decision involving a conditioning event (CE). The decision may, for example, involve a new-product launch (strategic decision) dependent on the outcome of market research (CE). The framework illustrates how Bayesian revision could be employed as related “news” arrives intermittently to revise current probabilities prior to decision implementation. A unique contribution of this paper is its utilization of the analytic hierarchy process to ascertain a set of consistent and coherent probabilities for the event/sample spaces at all stages of the decision process.     

How hot cognition can lead us astray: The effect of anger on strategic decision making

Anger is one of the most frequently experienced emotions. However, the extant research on the impact of anger has predominantly focused on its effect on decision making in simple decision tasks. Strategic decision making differs significantly from such tasks, as it is characterized by complexity, ambiguity, and a high information load. To better understand the impact of emotions on strategic decision making, we investigate the effect of anger on decision quality and decision speed. To do so, we carry out a strategy field experiment with 52 executives in which we use participants’ psychophysiological skin conductance response. In line with psychological research on non-strategic decisions, we find that anger negatively influences decision quality in strategic decision making. However, in contrast to predictions made by research on non-strategic decisions, we find no increase in decision speed among angry participants. We thus extend extant theory by suggesting that anger impacts the quality of strategic decisions but does not affect important process characteristics such as decision speed.     

A dual-processing view of three cognitive strategies in strategic decision making: Intuition,analytic reasoning,and reframing

In making strategic decisions, managers implicitly or explicitly come to choose a cognitive strategy, by which we refer to the choices made as regards what type of information processing to engage in and rely on as the basis for a decision. Dual-processing theories of cognition recognize two types of information processing: non-conscious and conscious. There are two cognitive strategies—relying on intuition and engaging in analytic reasoning—that have a straightforward connection to the two types of information processing. However, managers often engage in reframing, that is, they deliberately attempt to rethink the background assumptions concerning how one approaches a decision-making situation. Despite the strategic importance of reframing, the foundations of this cognitive strategy remain theoretically underdeveloped. We argue that reframing involves both Type 1 and Type 2 processing in a complementary fashion. Specifically, reframing can be induced through conscious reflection and non-conscious processing during an incubation period. Furthermore, we argue that while reframing is a robust cognitive strategy across varying levels of environmental dynamism, dedicating time to reframing incurs significant opportunity costs, and can thus be employed only sparingly.     

Voices and values: Linking values with participation in OR/MS in public policy making

It is now widely accepted that public policy development requires both an appreciation of public values and an ability to involve insights from local people. Operational research (OR) has made some contributions to public policy development, and there has been a call to use problem-structuring methods (PSM) in this environment. This growing need for greater use of OR/management science (MS) in policy making is due to its ability to work with insights that are sometimes hard to pin down. This paper presents some research about values and local people's voices in public policy making, which the authors believe present a challenge to OR/MS and to the use of PSM. The paper will describe a framework for understanding values and exploring insights into including local voices in policy making using PSMs. Key to the framework is in the emphasis on differences, rather than similarities, in value priorities. A case study in which local people as well as decisions makers and politicians were engaged in a process to decide the future of a local hospital will be described.     

Use of risk assessment and life cycle assessment in decision making: a common policy research agenda.

Quantitative risk assessment (RA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) are both analytical tools used to support decision making in environmental management. They have been developed and used by largely separate groups of specialists, and it is worth considering whether there is a common research agenda that may increase the relevance of these tools in decision-making processes. The validity of drawing comparisons between use of the tools is established through examining key aspects of the two approaches for their similarities and differences, including the nature of each approach and contextual and methodological aspects. Six case studies involving use of each approach in public decision making are described and used to draw out concerns about using RA and LCA in this context. The following categories of concern can be distinguished: philosophical approach of the tools; quantitative versus qualitative assessment; stakeholder participation; the nature of the results; and the usefulness of the results in relation to time and financial resource requirements. These can be distilled into a common policy research agenda focusing on: the legitimacy of using tools built on a particular perspective in decision making; recognition and role of value judgments in RA and LCA; treatment of uncertainty and variability; the influence of analytical tools in focusing attention on particular aspects of a decision-making situation; and understandability of the results for nonspecialists. It is concluded that it is time to bring together the experiences of RA and LCA specialists and benefit from cross-fertilization of ideas.     

National policy making in a global economy: The case for U.S. economic planning

In 1980 the Joint Economic Committee completed the Special Study on Economic Change. This 20 volume, 3-year project, was premised on the fact that: ‘fundamental economic, social, political, international and technical conditions have changed, and are still changing markedly’. This suggests that conventional wisdom and established economic tools may not be equal to meeting the challenge of making sound policies in the economic sphere. The so-called laws of economics have not been repealed, but all guiding principles presuppose a certain environment of conditions, customs and practices—and when these change, the implementation of new policies and the modes of adjustment have to change also. This paper examines the problem of devising policy instruments for economic management, identifying the facts of the changing economic environment and the main difficulties facing world economic development.     

Role of technology in strategic management

The accelerating pace of technological change has made technology a major strategic factor for many organizations. Some firms respond defensively, seeing technology as a problem, while others through strategic use of technology gain permanent advantage.The engineering function typically contains the bulk of the firm's technological expertise, yet engineers and engineering managers are seldom directly involved in strategic analysis. Strategy typically trickles down to engineering in the form of technological problems demanding solutions. This weak linkage between engineering activities and strategic thinking is far from optimal, and in the current turbulent technological environment it can even endanger the firm's survival.The linkage can be strengthened, but it requires behavioral and managerial changes at the top of the firm and at the engineering level. First, both levels must understand the concepts of strategic management and commit to implementing them. Then the strategic nature of technology must be understood, including the limitations and potential traps of technology-based strategies. Finally, creative opportunities for considering technology strategically must be made available at the engineering level, and both design engineers and engineering managers must be rewarded for their strategic contributions.