基于模拟退火算法的动态联盟盟员的动态选择

为了顺应21世纪知识经济时代竞争的需要,在制造业出现了动态联盟的先进制造模式,从而使得对动态联盟的研究成为当前学术界热点问题之一。目前,国内外在研究动态联盟盟员选择主要集中于组盟时的盟员选择,是一种静态选择,与动态联盟“快捷变化”的特性不符。由于知识的形性、外溢性、无地域性、成员间的合作竞争性等,使得动态联盟不可避免会产生知识资产冲突,从而导致着盟员的动态更迭。为此,基于模拟退火算法的思想,本文设计了一种解决动态联盟中盟员动态选择的算法,该算法很好地解决了动态联盟中盟员如何被动态选择和淘汰的问题,实例也表明该算法是符合实际运做的。当然,本算法也存在着一些有待继续研究的问题。     

有时间窗车辆路径问题的模型及其改进模拟退火算法研究

论文在对有时间窗车辆路径问题进行描述的基础上,建立了该问题的基于直观描述的数学模型.论文还根据有时间窗车辆路径问题的特点构造了求解该问题的改进模拟退火算法,并进行了实验计算.计算结果表明,用本文设计的改进模拟退火算法求解有时间窗车辆路径问题,不仅可以取得很好的计算结果,而且算法的计算效率较高,收敛速度较快,计算结果也较稳定.     

基于社会网络分析方法的顾客口碑意见领袖研究

本文以社会网络分析方法为基本手段,以大学生群体为代表对顾客口碑传播中的意见领袖开展研究。研究从意见领袖的特征出发,提出综合考虑点度中心度、点入度与点出度和结构洞等指标,可以利用社会网络研究方法对意见领袖进行测量。从顾客口碑传播网络的密度、节点测地距离、网络成分规模等角度所进行的分析发现意见领袖对顾客口碑传播网络的信息传播速度和传播范围有较大的影响,而且对传播范围的影响要大于对传播速度的影响。研究发现顾客口碑传播网络是一个密度较低的稀疏的网络。     

基于遗传算法的三级逆向物流网络设计模型研究

建立初始回收点以方便客户、提高回收速度以及建立集中回收中心以负责产品的收回、分拣并统一运送到相应的生产商或分销商修理地点是一种节约、有效的多层次产品回收模式。本文在即存研究基础之上,加入了考虑初始点回收成本、回收产品中再销售品的收益和可再利用品的收益等变量,提出了能够优化连接客户、集中回收中心和生产商三级逆向物流网络数学模型,最后灵敏度分析表明遗传算法对于求解这类问题是一种有效的方法。     

基于二阶段随机规划的城市医疗废弃物回收网络设计

城市医疗废弃物日益增加,且回收需求量受诸多因素的影响,难以准确预测,假定回收需求为确定值的医疗废弃物网络优化设计不能与实际需求相匹配。本文考虑了离散随机参数环境下,医疗回收网络设计中选址规划、分配计划及运输规划的协同优化问题,建立了以选址成本、运输成本最小为目标,设施与车辆能力限制为约束的二阶段随机规划模型。根据模型特点,设计了基于Benders decomposition的求解算法,同时,设计了一系列加速技术用于提高算法的求解效率。最后,以国内某城市医疗回收网络为背景设计算例,检验本文模型和求解策略的可行性和有效性。结果表明：相比确定性规划,随机规划的解能够节约总成本,结合一系列加速技术的Benders decomposition方法比CPLEX与纯的Benders decomposition更有优势。     

具有遗憾值约束的鲁棒供应链网络设计模型研究

考虑不确定性环境,研究战略层次的供应链网络鲁棒设计问题,目标是设计参数发生摄动时,供应链性能能够保持稳健性。基于鲁棒解的定义,建立从上游供应商选择到下游设施选址-需求分配的供应链网络设计鲁棒优化模型;提出确定遗憾值限定系数上限和下限的方法,允许决策者调节鲁棒水平,选择多种供应链网络结构;通过模型分解与协调,设计了供应链节点配置的禁忌搜索算法。算例的计算结果表明了禁忌搜索算法具有良好的收敛特性,以及在处理大规模问题上的优越性;同时也反映了利用鲁棒优化模型进行供应链网络设计,可以有效规避投资风险。     

Why Rules for Risk Communication Are Not Enough: A Problem-Solving Approach to Risk Communication

Current work on risk communication offers practitioners helpful guidelines and rules such as "speak clearly" and "speak with compassion." While important, these guidelines have limitations. They offer practitioners and scholars little aid in determining why a communication encounter failed. Also, they do not help practitioners anticipate and overcome likely difficulties in future risk situations, nor can they help locate information about how to reduce these difficulties. To overcome the limitations of rule-based approaches to risk communication, this paper describes a diagnostic or problem-solving approach. This approach maintains that instead of rules, people need bases for anticipating likely obstacles to effective communication and selecting approaches that reduce these difficulties. Research on building trust, increasing awareness, deepening comprehension, gaining agreement, and motivating action is available in fields such as communication, educational psychology, science education, marketing, counseling, negotiation, and disaster response. This paper describes a framework that assists scholars and practitioners in: (a) identifying communication goals; (b) determining principal obstacles to those goals; and (c) selecting research-based methods for overcoming or minimizing these difficulties and achieving communication objectives.     

A Mechanism Design Approach to Ranking Asymmetric Auctions

I propose a new mechanism design approach to the problem of ranking standard auctions with two heterogeneous bidders. A key feature of the approach is that it may be possible to rank two auctions even if neither dominates the other for all combinations of types. The approach simplifies the analysis and unifies results in the existing literature. Roughly speaking, the first‐price auction is more profitable than the second‐price auction when the strong bidder's distribution is flatter and more disperse than the weak bidder's distribution. Applications include auctions with one‐sided externalities. Moreover, contrary to previous work, reserve prices are easily handled. Finally, the method can be extended to some environments with many bidders.     

随机多阶段分销网络设计模型

为了更合理的设计分销网络,本文提出了一种随机多阶段的联合选址-库存模型。在该模型中,不仅考虑了经济规模和分摊效益的影响。同时通过情景规划,考虑了在多阶段的分销网络设计中,对未来市场环境的不确定性。该模型的目标是使整个战略周期内的总期望成本(包括库存、运输、选址成本与损失的收益)最小。本文将该模型建立成为了一个非线性的整数规划模型,同时提出了一种基于拉格朗日松弛的求解算法。最后,本文使用该算法求解了三组不同规模的算例,得到的计算结果证明了拉格朗日算法是求解该模型的有效算法。     

我国邮政网络的优化设计方法

我国邮政网络是一个巨大复杂的系统。本文通过对省际转运网、市内转运网和特快邮件投递网进行优化设计,以求邮政网络在整体上实现优质服务和成本的优化。这三个网络的优化设计分别是带时间和容量限制的网络设计问题(CNDPTC)、带时间窗口的车辆路线问题(VRPTW)和带时间限制的K人旅行售货员问题(K＿TSPTC)。我们分别采用拉格朗日松弛法(LagrangianRelaxation)和列生成法(ColumnGeneration)求解,并给出了有效的算法     

基于地心天际球面坐标的低轨卫星通信网络簇结构协同工作机制设计

低轨LEO（Low earth orbit）卫星通信网络系统星间链路结构与链接关系十分复杂,如何实现该系统的高度可靠、高效工作是一件十分复杂和困难的工作。传统路由算法多选择分布式路由,忽略了卫星内部的分簇管理,在一定程度上,大大增加了算法的时间复杂度和空间复杂度。针对此问题,本文从LEO卫星通信网络的特征出发,运用空间通信技术,分簇规划技术与排队图示评审技术Q-GERT（Queuing graphic evaluation review technique）,首先构建LEO卫星通信网络的地心天际球面坐标体系,搭建具有分簇架构的多层次通信网络;其次基于网络综合效能最优化,设计能够实现高度分布式协同通信业务管理的路由模型与算法;最后通过案例研究,表明本文所提工作机制的实用性与有效性。     

Evaluating the Mental Models Approach to Developing a Risk Communication: A Scoping Review of the Evidence

Risk communication is fundamental in ensuring people are equipped with the knowledge needed to navigate varied risks. One generally well‐regarded framework for the development of such communications is the mental models approach to risk communication (MMARC). Developed during the 1990s, the MMARC has been applied to a range of health, technological, and environmental risks. However, as yet, we know of no attempt to collate and review articles that evaluated communications developed using the MMARC. This article took a first step at addressing this gap by conducting a scoping review that aimed to begin to explore the fidelity with which the approach has been applied, explore whether there appeared to be sufficient studies to warrant a future systematic review, and identify future research questions. Although the initial search found over 100 articles explicitly applying the MMARC, only 12 of these developed a risk‐related communication that was tested against a control (and thus included in the current review). All studies reported a positive effect of the MMARC versus control communication for at least some of the outcome measures (knowledge being the most prevalent). However, there was wide variation between studies including type of control, outcomes assessed, and only five studies reported adopting a randomized design. The review highlights both the need for greater fidelity in the way future studies operationalize the MMARC approach, and suggests that a full‐scale systematic review of the MMARC literature appears justified, especially given the possibility of a large gray literature in this area.     

A Mechanism‐Design Approach to Speculative Trade

When two parties have different prior beliefs about some future event, they can realize gains through speculative trade. Can these gains be realized when the parties' prior beliefs are not common knowledge? We examine a simple example in which two parties having heterogeneous prior beliefs, independently drawn from some distribution, bet on what future action one of them will choose. We define a notion of “constrained interim‐efficient” best and ask whether they can be implemented in Bayesian equilibrium by some mechanism. Our main result establishes that as the costs of unilaterally manipulating the bet's outcome become more symmetric across states, implementation becomes easier. In particular, when these costs are equal in both states, implementation is possible for any distribution.     

A Dynamic Disaggregation Approach to Approximate Linear Programs for Network Revenue Management

The linear programming approach to approximate dynamic programming has received considerable attention in the recent network revenue management (RM) literature. A major challenge of the approach lies in solving the resulting approximate linear programs (ALPs), which often have a huge number of constraints and/or variables. Starting from a recently developed compact affine ALP for network RM, we develop a novel dynamic disaggregation algorithm to solve the problem, which combines column and constraint generation and exploits the structure of the underlying problem. We show that the formulation can be further tightened by considering structural properties satisfied by an optimal solution. We prove that the sum of dynamic bid‐prices across resources is concave over time. We also give a counterexample to demonstrate that the dynamic bid‐prices of individual resources are not concave in general. Numerical experiments demonstrate that dynamic disaggregation is often orders of magnitude faster than existing algorithms in the literature for problem instances with and without choice. In addition, adding the concavity constraints can further speed up the algorithm, often by an order of magnitude, for problem instances with choice.     

具有批量折扣的供应物流网络优化遗传算法研究

针对具有批量折扣和转运的供应链优化问题的特征,提出供应物流网络概念及其优化参数:节点、线路和流量;根据包括采购和物流的供应总成本函数最小化,建立供应物流网络优化问题的数学模型;设计此类优化问题的遗传算法,通过仿真算例,说明和验证遗传算法对该问题具有很好的可行性和实用性.     

带中途脱挂的干/支线两级运输网络牵引车调度优化

甩挂运输因牵引车与半挂车并行作业的高效性,在快递运输企业中逐渐得到应用。基于两级运输网络,本文提出"可中途脱挂"的甩挂运输新模式,同时,允许干/支线任务由同一台牵引车混合执行,构建了混合整数规划模型,并开发了混合模拟退火算法进行求解。在干/支线任务比例变化和任务总数变化两类仿真算例下,将本文的甩挂运输模式与"不可中途脱挂、干/支线任务混合执行"及"不可中途脱挂、干/支线任务分开执行"两种模式的总成本进行对比,验证了模型的有效性,体现出本文模式的显著优势及鲁棒性,并为快递运输企业的现实运营提供决策支持。     

Dynamic Mechanism Design: A Myersonian Approach

We study mechanism design in dynamic quasilinear environments where private information arrives over time and decisions are made over multiple periods. We make three contributions. First, we provide a necessary condition for incentive compatibility that takes the form of an envelope formula for the derivative of an agent's equilibrium expected payoff with respect to his current type. It combines the familiar marginal effect of types on payoffs with novel marginal effects of the current type on future ones that are captured by “impulse response functions.” The formula yields an expression for dynamic virtual surplus that is instrumental to the design of optimal mechanisms and to the study of distortions under such mechanisms. Second, we characterize the transfers that satisfy the envelope formula and establish a sense in which they are pinned down by the allocation rule (“revenue equivalence”). Third, we characterize perfect Bayesian equilibrium‐implementable allocation rules in Markov environments, which yields tractable sufficient conditions that facilitate novel applications. We illustrate the results by applying them to the design of optimal mechanisms for the sale of experience goods (“bandit auctions”).     

不确定环境下考虑风险厌恶的生产-分销网络优化模型及试验设计

考虑上游生产和下游需求不确定性，研究了由工厂、分销中心及终端市场构成的生产-分销网络优化设计问题。针对上游生产不确定性，考虑产生故障和无故障两种状态；针对下游市场需求不确定性，考虑其具有低、中和高三种状态。由于生产发生故障可能导致不合格品的产生，进一步考虑了在上游生产环节是否实施产品监测问题。综合网络运作成本和由不确定性导致的绩效风险，建立了由风险厌恶水平和悲观系数刻画的基于均值-条件风险值（CVaR）准则的生产-分销网络两阶段随机规划模型。特别地，针对由网络潜在节点数众多所导致的不确定情景规模过大的问题，采用情景缩减技术进行了情景筛选，降低了所建模型的求解难度。最后，进行了数值计算，分析了相关参数对网络运作绩效的影响，并给出了期望成本和条件风险值两个目标权衡的帕累托有效前沿。进一步，通过回归试验设计检验了决策者风险厌恶水平和悲观系数对所设计的生产-分销网络绩效的影响程度。结果表明，相对于决策者的风险厌恶程度，悲观系数对网络运作绩效的影响更大。     

Risk Communication and Foodborne Illness: Message Sponsorship and Attempts to Stimulate Perceptions of Risk

Foodborne illness represents a serious health hazard in the United States. Since foodborne illness can often be prevented by an individual's behavior, messages aimed at promoting safe food-handling behaviors should be a major tool to reduce the incidence of foodborne illness. This article argues that to achieve adoption of safe food-handling practices in the home, food-safety messages should both stimulate risk perceptions and promote self-efficacy, feelings that one can successfully enact recommended behaviors. A content analysis of nationally distributed food-safety messages questioned if messages incorporated these features. Since food-safety communicators operate in complex environments with multiple and sometimes competing objectives, this study also questioned if sponsorship of foodborne illness prevention messages was related to the amount of content designed to alter risk perceptions associated with foodborne illness. Results of the quantitative content analysis found that copywriters generally included content designed to stimulate risk perception about foodborne illness but virtually ignored self-efficacy needs of the audience. A marked difference in tendencies to stimulate risk perceptions was found based on sponsorship. Both in volume and proportion, results show that governmentally sponsored messages more aggressively attempted to heighten risk perceptions associated with foodborne illness than did messages sponsored by privately funded communicators.     

逆向物流网络设计研究进展

随着环境资源压力的增大,政府法制要求以及社会环保要求的提升,研究者对逆向物流网络的研究日益关注。本文系统地对近几年的逆向物流网络设计研究进行回顾,讨论并对比研究了网络设计研究问题,研究方法,定量模型,求解算法以及逆向物流网络设计中不确定环境方面的研究。探讨了逆向物流网络研究中的不足,为研究者未来的研究方向提供了参考。