Economic Development,Gender Inequality,and Demographic Outcomes: Evidence from India

This article examines the determinants of fertility, child mortality, and female disadvantage in child survival in India, using a district‐level panel data set linking 1981 and 1991 censuses. The results question the dominant view that variables directly related to women's agency (specifically, the female literacy rate and the female labor force participation rate) have played the crucial roles here. Instead, variables reflecting the general level of development and modernization are shown to have had the greatest effect in reducing fertility and child mortality during the period of the study. Both economic development and women's agency are seen to have had significant effects in reducing the female disadvantage in child survival. The results suggest, however, that with continued economic development, the two women's agency variables lose their significance in influencing this disadvantage. The policy implications of these findings are considered.     

Linking Food Security with Household’s Adaptive Capacity and Drought Risk: Implications for Sustainable Rural Development

In spite of green revolution and rapid economic growth, India’s vast population still suffers from hunger and poverty, especially in the rural areas. Moreover, drought adversely affects India’s economy by declining agricultural production and purchasing power. It also escalates rural unemployment which ultimately affects household food security. Our study investigated the food security of drought prone rural households in a broader context by linking the dimensions of food security with dimensions of climate change vulnerability. We used the primary data of 157 drought prone rural households of Odisha state in India for analysis. This study employed polychoric principal component analysis to construct an aggregate food security index. An ordered probit model was used to estimate the determinants of food security. The FSI showed that three-fourth of the respondents were facing food security issues with varying degrees. The estimates of ordered probit model indicated that joint family, education, migration and health insurance are key variables that determine food security, whereas drought adversely affected food security of rural households. Overarching strategies are required to effectively address food security issues in the wake of increased drought risk. This study provides an insight for policy makers in India and in similar south Asian countries who must consider food security in the light of drought.

     

Population policy: Personal notes

Abstract These are the population years: throughout the world, in both developing and developed countries, there has been a growing debate on population policy. In this paper population policy refers to governmental actions that are designed to alter population events, or that do alter them. The concern with policy seems to center in the relationships between four demographic variables (size, rates, distribution, composition) and four 'quality of life' categories as both determinants and consequences (comprehended here as economic, political, ecological/environmental, social). As to policy means, they can be seen as being five in number (information, voluntary programmes, change in social institutions, incentives and disincentives, and coercion) with the potential of affecting the three factors of fertility, mortality, and migration. The relationships and effects of these conceptual cross tabulations are illustrated.     

Temporary vs. permanent migration: a decision theoretical approach

"The decision problem of the guest worker as a target saver is considered. He plans to accumulate capital in the host country for investment in the home country after return migration. As the worker is supposed to be incompletely informed about the economic variables in the host country he might prolong his stay unexpectedly provided the economic conditions in the host country are unfavourable. Explicit conditions for the economic variables are given such that temporary migration turns into permanent migration."     

Human Capital Outflow and Economic Misery: Fresh Evidence for Pakistan

This paper visits the impact of economic misery on human capital outflow using time series data over the period of 1975–2012. We have applied the combined cointegration tests and innovation accounting approach to examine long run and causal relationship between the variables. Our results affirm the presence of cointegration between the variables. We find that economic misery increases human capital outflow. Foreign remittances add in human capital outflow from Pakistan. The migration from Pakistan to rest of world is boosted by depreciation in local currency. Income inequality is also a major contributor to human capital outflow. The present study is comprehensive effort and may provide new insights to policy makers for handling the issue of human capital outflow by controlling economic misery in Pakistan.

     

人力资本区域迁移与经济增长理论模型—国际智力外流模型的拓展

本研究将国际智力外流模型拓展为两区域模型．综合考虑人力资本迁移对迁入地区和迁出地区的经济增长效应,并且进一步引入迁移成本,构建适用于中国人力资本区域迁移与经济增长的理论模型。基本启示是：中国人力资本区域迁移在理论上完全能够实现人力资本迁入地区和人力资本迁出地区双赢．同时迁移成本的降低将大大促进人力资本迁移的经济增长效应。模型暗含的政策建议是降低中国区域间人力资本迁移成本,加速区域间人力资本合理迁移以促进中国各区域经济增长。     

我国三大都市圈人口迁移态势与影响因素分析

三大都市圈是中国重要的经济承载区和人口承载区,对三大都市圈的人口迁移研究对于整个中国的人口迁移研究来说很具有代表性。本文运用空间统计中有关方向和距离的研究方法来研究三大都市圈人口迁移规律。研究结果表明,影响地区之间人口迁移量的主要因素有经济差距、人口规模、地理距离和气候差别。根据分析结果,参照吉佛的引力模型建立三大都市圈与全国其它各地州市的人口迁移量模型。     

Explaining son preference in rural India: the independent role of structural versus individual factors

Much research has been done on demographic manifestations of son preference, particularly girls’ excess mortality; however, there is less research that focuses on son preference itself. This paper analyzes the determinants of son preference in rural India. We separate the independent, relative effects of characteristics of individual women and their households, village opportunities for women and village development, and social norms. We look at both socioeconomic and sociocultural variables. Finally, we examine whether predictors of son preference differ by desired family size. Our data come from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) India, 1992–1993. We use an ordered logit model, with dummy variables for state of residence. Our analysis shows that women’s education, particularly at secondary and higher levels, is consistently and significantly associated with weaker son preference, regardless of desired family size. Once factors measuring social norms, such as marriage customs, caste and religion, are included, economic wealth and women’s employment at household or village levels are not significant. Media access remains significant, suggesting an influence of “modernizing” ideas. Among social factors, caste and religion are associated with son preference but, once state of residence is controlled for, marriage patterns and cultivation patterns are insignificant. The strength and significance for son preference of many determinants differs by desired family size. Our results suggest that policy makers seeking to influence son preference need to identify and target different policy levers to women in different fertility and social contexts, rather than try an approach of one size that fits all.     

Length of residence,social ties,and economic opportunities

This study examines length of residence for movers—that subsection of the population which accounts for the high mobility rates in the United States. The propensity for repeated migration is studied in relation to economic opportunities and previous familial and personal contacts. The results indicate no influence of economic opportunities on duration of residence. This finding is consistent with recent research that indicates economic conditions are not a general stimulus for out-migration, although they are for in-migration. On the other hand, length of residence is found to be longer where previous familial and personal contacts existed. Overall, the results provide additional evidence of the importance of social, as opposed to strictly economic, variables in the migration process.     

建国以来新疆人口的省际迁移状况分析

新疆人口总数中。省际迁移人口占有重要的地位。文章分析了建国以来新疆人口迁移特点,结果表明：新疆人口迁移活动主要表征为国家有计划的迁移和人口自发迁移。迁移过程具明显的时间阶段性;迁入人口以文化素质较低的农村男性青壮年为主：人口迁入地区主要为开发程度高、经济发展快、交通便利的地区;人口迁入主因是国家政策及大量土地资源的吸引．人口迁出主因是区域经济发展不平衡、产业结构调整,祖籍亲缘关系、户籍管制的放松;省际人口迁移促进了新疆的经济发展以及新疆与其他省区的交流,但同时也带来了一些不刺影响。     

经济增长、生育政策与生育率——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

文章基于不同发展水平、采取不同生育政策分布在不同地区的十个国家1970—2009年的面板数据对经济增长、生育政策与生育率之间的关系进行实证分析,对近年来部分学者提出的经济增长与生育率之间的U形关系,采取选择不同样本、加入政策变量和其他与生育率相关的重要经济指标如妇女的教育程度、城镇化率、工业化率等进行再检验,结果支持该假说,经济增长在经济发展程度整体较低的阶段与生育率呈现较高的负相关,但当经济增长达到一定程度时,收入效应取代替代效应对生育率起主要推动作用,如果再辅之以相关的激励政策和措施,生育率会出现轻微的反弹。因此,对于已采取生育控制政策的国家,可以结合经济社会发展指标权衡利弊,适时调整政策。     

Cash support vs. tax incentives: The differential impact of policy interventions on third births in contemporary Hungary

Following steep falls in birth rates in Central and Eastern European countries during the economic and institutional restructuring of the early 1990s, governments made substantial efforts to stop or at least reduce the fertility decline. In Hungary, parents with three or more children could benefit from specific new policy measures: the flat-rate child-rearing support paid from the youngest child's third to eighth birthdays (signalling recognition of stay-at-home motherhood) and a redesigned and upgraded tax relief system. However, the success of these policy measures, if any, is difficult to detect in aggregate statistics. Analysing data from the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey, we rely on event history methods to examine the policies’ effects on third birth risks, especially among different socio-economic groups. The results indicate that while the child-rearing support increased third birth risks among the least educated, the generous tax relief had a similar effect for parents with tertiary education.     

U.S. foreign economic policy and illegal immigration

It is often suggested that the most effective policy for the United States, if it wishes to curtail illegal immigration from nearby countries, is to manipulate foreign economic instruments to support their economic development. The Reagan administration's Caribbean Basin Initiative is responsive to this approach in its proposals for increased aid and trade and tax preferences for beneficiary countries. Analysis of U.S. trade, investment, and aid relations with migrant-sending countries leads to the conclusion that these preferences could have a marginal impact on job creation in these countries, but there is no assurance that a modest rise in economic opportunity will lead to a decrease in emigration in the foreseeable future. In addition, preferential trade and tax treatment for some countries involves a departure from U.S. policy and would lead to a clamor for equal treatment by other countries.     

Marriage Migration and Inequality in India, 1983–2008

Using National Sample Survey data from 1983 to 2007–08, we investigate rising rates of female marriage migration in India. We find little evidence to support the idea that marriage migration is a form of disguised economic migration by women. We hypothesise that it is instead a result of the changing patterns of marriage by socioeconomic status. Regression analysis indicates that poor families are increasingly more likely to have brides who in‐migrate, a finding that is robust across a sectoral disaggregation of marriage migration. We also find that urban inequality increases the likelihood of migration by intensifying class stratifications within urban India, increasing the need for poorer urban households to seek migrant brides. Marriage thus serves to reinforce rather than undermine larger patterns of class (and not just caste) inequality.     

移民是否鸠占鹊巢?——来自迁入地公共品供给的经验证据

20世纪80年代中期以来,劳动力跨地区迁移为中国经济增长做出了突出贡献,但移民进入可能"挤占"迁入地居民享有的公共品也令许多人深感忧虑.事实上,移民进入对迁入地公共品供给的影响同时存在负向的竞争效应和正向的财政效应,而移民进入对迁入地公共品供给的净影响取决于竞争效应和财政效应规模的相对大小.使用2000-2012年地级市数据的研究发现,移民进入显著增加了迁入地医疗卫生、基础教育、道路交通、人居环境等公共品的供给,说明移民进入影响迁入地公共品供给的财政效应大于竞争效应.进一步基于回归的财政效应估计显示,在控制了财政支出及其他变量之后,移民人口占比每增加10%,迁入地财政收入占GDP的比重将会提高约1.01个百分点.     

Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050

This research contributes to an understanding of the relationship between climate change, economic impacts and migration. We model the long-term relationship (up to 45 years of projection) between demographic dynamics—particularly migration—driven by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate changes in the Northeast region of Brazil. The region is of particular relevance to the study of climate change impacts given its large human population (28% of Brazil’s population) and high levels of impoverishment, having an extensive semi-dry area which will be severely impacted by growing temperatures. Ultimately, the integrated model generates state- and municipal-level migration scenarios based on climate change impacts on the primary economic sectors and their articulations with other sectors. Results suggest that the predicted climate changes will impact severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country. Finally, we discuss how the increased vulnerability of some groups, particularly migrants, can be factored into Brazilian public policy and planning.     

A brief for a tax-based U.S. immigration policy

This paper briefly reviews the present state of U.S. immigration policy from an economic perspective. It contends that the present system confounds two independent dimensions of immigration policy—residence and employment. It argues that far too much attention is paid to who is admitted to the U.S. and far too little to what people do once they enter. The proposed policy is a system of taxes and transfer payments designed to regulate the employment of foreign nationals and to compensate domestic workers who are adversely affected economically. The paper works out the economics of the tax and demonstrates that such a system could ideally remove all adverse economic effects of immigration.     

Regional Performance Trends in Providing Employment for Persons with Disabilities: Evidence from Italy

The aim of this work is to analyse the situation of persons with disabilities in the Italian labour market, with a view to providing guidelines to promote their inclusion both in the labour market and in society. For this purpose, we propose a two-step analysis focusing on Italian regions for the period 2006–2009. In the first phase, we use the Data Envelopment Analysis method to evaluate regional efficiency in providing employment for persons with disabilities. Cluster analysis is then applied to regional efficiency scores and economic policy variables in order to identify “policy clusters of regions”. Our results show that it is necessary both to focus on the residual work ability of persons with disabilities and to develop a social integration culture on the demand side of the labour market. Moreover, a structural reform of disability benefit systems is required in order to promote a culture of social inclusion.     

Work disability and migration in the early years of welfare reform

The inter- and intra-state migration of American families with work-disabled members is a neglected area of empirical study. Longitudinal migration and health status data from the 1996 Panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) are merged with state-level welfare policy indicators to investigate migration behavior under welfare reform’s emphasis on requiring work and encouraging reliance on social support networks. We use a nested discrete-choice event history model that incorporates the departure decision and interstate destination choice in a single model that tests the effects of state-level welfare policy and economic opportunity characteristics, with state fixed effects, plus family sociodemographic characteristics and social networks, as the basis for comparing migration of families with and without work disabilities. The results show that although families with disabilities and illnesses are less likely to migrate than other families generally, they are “pushed” to migrate if they live in states that do not exempt them from TANF activities requirements. Furthermore, in-migration is inhibited by stringent state welfare illness exemption rules and high state unemployment rates. Intrastate migration is more likely among families who received family and community social support, regardless of work-disability status.     

A stocks and flows approach to a theory of human migration with examples from past Irish migration

While scientists from many disciplines have contributed to the understanding of specific instances of human migration, there is need for a more general theory of voluntary migration. This paper presents and tests (using data on Irish migration) an economic model which could serve as the core of a multidisciplinary general theory. The economic model postulates earnings differentials between countries and regions as the proximate cause of the generation of a stock of migrants. As a result of institutional barriers, personal inertia, incomplete knowledge of earnings differentials, etc., not all of the existing stock becomes a flow of migrants in any year. Application of this model to migration between different countries or between the same countries at different time periods can be of value to scientists in many disciplines in isolating the underlying causes for differing rates of awareness of and response to earnings differentials by potential migrants.