Randomly weighted sums of linearly wide quadrant-dependent random variables with heavy tails

This paper investigates tail behavior of the randomly weighted sum ∑ⁿ_{k = 1}θ_kX_k and reaches an asymptotic formula, where X_k, 1 ? k ? n, are real-valued linearly wide quadrant-dependent (LWQD) random variables with a common heavy-tailed distribution, and θ_k, 1 ? k ? n, independent of X_k, 1 ? k ? n, are n non-negative random variables without any dependence assumptions. The LWQD structure includes the linearly negative quadrant-dependent structure, the negatively associated structure, and hence the independence structure. On the other hand, it also includes some positively dependent random variables and some other random variables. The obtained result coincides with the existing ones.     

Precise large deviations for the difference of two sums of END random variables with heavy tails

Assume that there are two types of insurance contracts in an insurance company, and the ith related claims are denoted by {X_ij, j ? 1}, i = 1, 2. In this article, the asymptotic behaviors of precise large deviations for non random difference ∑^n₁(t)_{j = 1}X_1j ? ∑^n₂(t)_{j = 1}X_2j and random difference ∑^N₁(t)_{j = 1}X_1j ? ∑^N₂(t)_{j = 1}X_2j are investigated, and under several assumptions, some corresponding asymptotic formulas are obtained.     

Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with flexible tails

An alternative distributional assumption is proposed for the stochastic volatility model. This results in extremely flexible tail behaviour of the sampling distribution for the observables, as well as in the availability of a simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo strategy for posterior analysis. By allowing the tail behaviour to be determined by a separate parameter, we reserve the parameters of the volatility process to dictate the degree of volatility clustering. Treatment of a mean function is formally integrated in the analysis.

Some empirical examples on both stock prices and exchange rates clearly indicate the presence of fat tails, in combination with high levels of volatility clustering. In addition, predictive distributions indicate a good fit with these typical financial data sets.     

Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with flexible tails

An alternative distributional assumption is proposed for the stochastic volatility model. This results in extremely flexible tail behaviour of the sampling distribution for the observables, as well as in the availability of a simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo strategy for posterior analysis. By allowing the tail behaviour to be determined by a separate parameter, we reserve the parameters of the volatility process to dictate the degree of volatility clustering. Treatment of a mean function is formally integrated in the analysis.

Some empirical examples on both stock prices and exchange rates clearly indicate the presence of fat tails, in combination with high levels of volatility clustering. In addition, predictive distributions indicate a good fit with these typical financial data sets.     

Characterization of the Pearson system of distributions based on reliability measures

LetX be a random variable andX ^(w) be a weighted random variable corresponding toX. In this paper, we intend to characterize the Pearson system of distributions by a relationship between reliability measures ofX andX ^(w), for some weight functionw>0.     

Time series analysis of non-Gaussian observations based on state space models from both classical and Bayesian perspectives

The analysis of non-Gaussian time series by using state space models is considered from both classical and Bayesian perspectives. The treatment in both cases is based on simulation using importance sampling and antithetic variables; Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are not employed. Non-Gaussian disturbances for the state equation as well as for the observation equation are considered. Methods for estimating conditional and posterior means of functions of the state vector given the observations, and the mean-square errors of their estimates, are developed. These methods are extended to cover the estimation of conditional and posterior densities and distribution functions. The choice of importance sampling densities and antithetic variables is discussed. The techniques work well in practice and are computationally efficient. Their use is illustrated by applying them to a univariate discrete time series, a series with outliers and a volatility series.     

Estimation of an exponential quantile under pitman's measure of closeness

We consider the problem of estimating a quantile of an exponential distribution with unknown location and scale parameters under Pitman's measure of closeness (PMC). The loss function is required to satisfy some mild conditions but is otherwise arbitrary. An optimal estimator is obtained in the class of location-scale-equivariant estimators, and its admissibility in the sense of PMC is investigated.     

General composite quantile regression: Theory and methods

Abstract

In this article, we propose a new regression method called general composite quantile regression (GCQR) which releases the unrealistic finite error variance assumption being imposed by the traditional least squares (LS) method. Unlike the recently proposed composite quantile regression (CQR) method, our proposed GCQR allows any continuous non-uniform density/weight function. As a result, determination of the number of uniform quantile positions is not required. Most importantly, the proposed GCQR criterion can be readily transformed to a linear programing problem, which substantially reduces the computing time. Our theoretical and empirical results show that the GCQR is generally efficient than the CQR and LS if the weight function is appropriately chosen. The oracle properties of the penalized GCQR are also provided. Our simulation results are consistent with the derived theoretical findings. A real data example is analyzed to demonstrate our methodologies.     

Generalized weibull family: a structural analysis

A two shape parameter generalization of the well known family of the Weibull distributions is presented and its properties are studied. The properties examined include the skewness and kurtosis, density shapes and tail character, and relation of the members of the family to those of the Pear-sonian system. The members of the family are grouped in four classes in terms of these properties. Also studied are the extreme value distributions and the limiting distributions of the extreme spacings for the members of the family. It is seen that the generalized Weibull family contains distributions with a variety of density and tail shapes, and distributions which in terms of skewness and kurtosis approximate the main types of curves of the Pearson system. Furthermore, as shown by the extreme value and extreme spacings distributions the family contains short, medium and long tailed distributions. The quantile and density quantile functions are the principle tools used for the structural analysis of the family.     

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation and Model Comparison

In this paper we show that fully likelihood-based estimation and comparison of multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models can be easily performed via a freely available Bayesian software called WinBUGS. Moreover, we introduce to the literature several new specifications that are natural extensions to certain existing models, one of which allows for time-varying correlation coefficients. Ideas are illustrated by fitting, to a bivariate time series data of weekly exchange rates, nine multivariate SV models, including the specifications with Granger causality in volatility, time-varying correlations, heavy-tailed error distributions, additive factor structure, and multiplicative factor structure. Empirical results suggest that the best specifications are those that allow for time-varying correlation coefficients.     

Exact principal component influence measures applied to the analysis of spectroscopic data on rice

Exact influence measures are applied in the evaluation of a principal component decomposition for high dimensional data. Some data used for classifying samples of rice from their near infra-red transmission profiles, following a preliminary principal component analysis, are examined in detail. A normalization of eigenvalue influence statistics is proposed which ensures that measures reflect the relative orientations of observations, rather than their overall Euclidean distance from the sample mean. Thus, the analyst obtains more information from an analysis of eigenvalues than from approximate approaches to eigenvalue influence. This is particularly important for high dimensional data where a complete investigation of eigenvector perturbations may be cumbersome. The results are used to suggest a new class of influence measures based on ratios of Euclidean distances in orthogonal spaces.     

Properties of a class of inequality measures: A proposal for a resistant version

Summary This note explores the robustness properties of a general class of ineqyality measures which includes the Bonferroni and the Gini indexes as special cases and proposes some modifications in order to make them outlier resistant.     

On the Bayesian analysis of categorical data: the problem of nonresponse

It is demonstrated how a suitably chosen prior for the frequency parameters can streamline the Bayesian analysis of categorical data with missing entries due to nonresponse or other causes. The two cases where the data follow the Multinomial or the Hypergeometric model are treated separately. In the first case it is adequate to restrict the prior (for the cell probabilities) to the class of Dirichlet distributions. In the case of the Hypergeometric model it is convenient to select a prior from the class of Dirichlet-Multinomial (DM) distributions. The DM distributions are studied in some details.     

Rank-based analysis of repeated measures block designs

A rank-based inference is developed for repeated measures balanced incomplete block and randomized complete block designs using a suitable dispersion function. Asymptotic distributions of rank estimators are developed after establishing approximate linearity of the gradient vector of the dispersion function. Unlike available nonparametric procedures for those designs, estimation and testing are tied together. Three different test statistics are developed for testing the linear hypotheses. Friedman's (1937) statistic and Durbin's (1951) statistic are particular cases of one of the three proposed statistics. An estimate of a scale parameter which appears in the ARE expression as well as as in the variences and covariances of the rank estimators is discussed.     

An extension of the generalized exponential distribution

The two-parameter generalized exponential distribution has been used recently quite extensively to analyze lifetime data. In this paper the two-parameter generalized exponential distribution has been embedded in a larger class of distributions obtained by introducing another shape parameter. Because of the additional shape parameter, more flexibility has been introduced in the family. It is observed that the new family is positively skewed, and has increasing, decreasing, unimodal and bathtub shaped hazard functions. It can be observed as a proportional reversed hazard family of distributions. This new family of distributions is analytically quite tractable and it can be used quite effectively to analyze censored data also. Analyses of two data sets are performed and the results are quite satisfactory.     

Hijacking Planes to Cuba: An Up-Dated Version of the Birthday Problem

Modern desk calculators compute distribution functions for many of the standard tabled distributions. Two such machines and some of their capabilities are discussed. Generally more is available from the calculators than is found in voluminous tables. One of the biggest advantages of the machines over tables arises from their capacity to compute probabilities for the two parameter F distribution, a set of values that is cumbersome to tabulate.     

Bayesian analysis of outlier problems using divergence measures

A Bayesian approach is presented for detecting influential observations using general divergence measures on the posterior distributions. A sampling-based approach using a Gibbs or Metropolis-within-Gibbs method is used to compute the posterior divergence measures. Four specific measures are proposed, which convey the effects of a single observation or covariate on the posterior. The technique is applied to a generalized linear model with binary response data, an overdispersed model and a nonlinear model. An asymptotic approximation using Laplace method to obtain the posterior divergence is also briefly discussed.     

Nonlinear measures of association with kernel canonical correlation analysis and applications

Measures of association between two sets of random variables have long been of interest to statisticians. The classical canonical correlation analysis (LCCA) can characterize, but also is limited to, linear association. This article introduces a nonlinear and nonparametric kernel method for association study and proposes a new independence test for two sets of variables. This nonlinear kernel canonical correlation analysis (KCCA) can also be applied to the nonlinear discriminant analysis. Implementation issues are discussed. We place the implementation of KCCA in the framework of classical LCCA via a sequence of independent systems in the kernel associated Hilbert spaces. Such a placement provides an easy way to carry out the KCCA. Numerical experiments and comparison with other nonparametric methods are presented.