搞好个体商业抽样调查的体会

1989年10月,我局在定南县全县范围内进行了一次个体商业抽样调查。这次调查达到了预期的目的。抽样推算的各项数据真实可信,调查工作是成功的,成功的原因主要是正确处理了以下几个问题。1．做好组织工作是做好个体商业抽样调查工作的     

论抽样调查在集体和个体商业的运用

论抽样调查在集体和个体商业的运用暨南大学林虹一、集体和个体商业统计方法改革的必要性商品流通体制改革以后，改变了市场上国营商业独家经营的状况。商业网点显著增多，特别是集体所有制商业和个体商业，如雨后春笋般的发展，使商业统计面对“汪洋大海”，工作难度明显...     

海宁试点个体经营户调查的做法及思考

海宁试点个体经营户调查的做法及思考海宁作为全国第一次经济普查四个试点省之一,个体经营户抽样调查采用了国家三套参考方案中的第三套方案,即多阶段抽样.根据我省试点的实际,与各专业现行的抽样调查方法比较,我们认为经济普查的个体户抽样调查方法还有待于进一步改进和完善.     

在全省范围内开展集体商业抽样调查的做法

从1986年6月至1988年1月,我们在全省范围内对集体商业进行了一次抽样调查试验。我们采用分阶段类型等距抽样方法,以集体商业职工人均营业额为排序标志,抽选出若干种样本配合群,在比较其代表性优劣之后,确定了1239个样本企业。这次抽样调查工作大体上可分为方案设计、前期准备、调整方案、试点和实施五个阶段。     

浅谈小型单位抽样框的编制

对大中型企业进行全面调查,对小型企业进行抽样调查已是目前我国统计调查制度改革的热点之一。小型企业进行抽样调查的关健在于抽样框的编制。全国基本单位普查资料为小型单位抽样框的建立提供了完备的基础资料。本文从抽样调查的要求出发,对利用普查资料建立抽样框提出一些看法。     

论社会经济调查抽样框的构建

就统计调查体系改革而言,需要解决两方面问题:一是普查、抽样调查和全面报表制度的衔接配套.二是抽样框的建设和抽样调查实际操作的管理和控制.抽样框的建设是解决上述问题的关键,不仅为抽样调查的应用和推广奠定基础,而且是普查、全面报表和抽样调查三种方法衔接配套的基点.     

试论个体商业抽样调查最优样本容量设计

随着商品经济的发展，个体商业在流通领域中的地位发生了显著的变化。对个体商业进行统计调查，尤其是按其特点进行抽样调查将具有日益重要的意义．本文就以此为出发点，推导个体商业户平均营业额的无编估计及估计样本方差公式，并对样本方差与相应调查费用的关系进行量化，以寻找最优样本客量设计方案．一、抽样方法的选择改革开放以来，个体商业就其总体而言，数量越来越多．在社会消费品零售额、商业机构总数、从业人员等几项重要指标中，个体商业所占比率在逐年提高；与此同时，由于经济、地理等客观条件的制约，各地区个体商业发展依旧…     

浙江个体工业抽样方法比较研究

个体工业在浙江工业经济中占有较大份额,有着重要地位。通过抽样调查推算个体工业经济总量的统计方法已被实践证明是科学、有效的。由于抽样调查方法较多,对不同区域、不同经济结构的个体工业采取不同的抽样方法是必要的。选择科学、合理的抽样调查方法能够提高抽样效率和数据质量,反之,事倍功半。本文根据浙江个体工业特点和抽样框的有关资料,采用不同抽样方法进行模拟应用,对各种抽样方法特点、样本数量和样本分布进行分析比较,得出几点结论供各地实施规模以下工业抽样调查工作参考。     

我国规模以下工业抽样框的问题与解决思路

我国 1996年出台了工业统计抽样调查试点方案 (分为企业与个体单位两部分 ) ,1997年进行了试点 ,1998年开始对年销售收入 5 0 0万元以下的非国有工业企业和全部个体工业单位实行抽样调查。经过几年的实践 ,积累了不少经验 ,但同时也发现了不少问题 ,其中难题之一就是抽样框不完善、不稳定和不规范。尽管我国每 5年进行一次基本单位普查 (到目前已进行了两次 ) ,但抽样框的问题仍然一直没有解决 ,严重影响了抽样估计数据的精确性。对于这一点 ,我国各级统计部门都已充分认识并正在进行研究解决。本项目研究也正是在这样的背景下进行的。　　…     

个体经营户经济普查抽样调查面临的难点及对策简

正在进行的第三次全国经济普查，是融第三产业、建筑业、工业以及基本单位等项内容于一体的一项综合性普查。难点则是搞好遍布城乡的个体经营户的普查工作。长期以来我国对个体经济的调查一直是一个薄弱环节。在正常年份的统计中，只对个体工业和个体批发零售贸易、餐饮业开展了抽样调查，而对个体交通运输业、建筑业、居民服务业、商务租赁业等没有开展统计调查。正是由于个体经济调查的特殊性和复杂性，更有必要对其调查方法、组织方式进行认真探讨，以期找到一种比较科学、规范的方法，为这次经济普查以及普查之后建立健全个体经济抽样调查提供一个借鉴。     

Measuring the degree of severity of heteroskedasticity and the choice between the ols estimator and the 2sae

This paper dwells on the choice between the ordinary least squares and the estimated generalized least squares estimators when the presence of heteroskedasticity is suspected. Since the estimated generalized least squares estimator does not dominate the ordinary least squares estimator completely over the whole parameter space, it is of interest to the researcher to know in advance whether the degree of severity of heteroskedasticity is such that OLS estimator outperforms the estimated generalized least squares (or 2SAE). Casting the problem in the non-spherical error mold and exploiting the principle underlying the Bayesian pretest estimator, an intuitive non-mathematical procedure is proposed to serve as an aid to the researcher in deciding when to use either the ordinary least squares (OLS) or the estimated generalized least squares (2SAE) estimators.     

我国经济社会协调发展的内涵及其测度研究

从我国经济社会协调发展的内涵来看,协调发展既应强调协调,也应强调发展,是协调和发展的综合体.已有文献中,有学者用离差系数来测度协调发展水平,事实上,离差系数只能测度一组数据的离散趋势,也就是说只能测度协调水平,而无法描述系统间的发展度,离差系数在测度协调发展水平时存在一定的局限.但不可否认,离差系数在测度协调度时有着先天的优势,在离差系数上加权发展度效应,则可以更加科学的测度我国经济社会协调发展水平.     

Statistics and the medicine of the future

New drugs that are effective and safe for all become harder and harder to find. Individuals react differently to different medications. Chris Harbron points to a future where drugs will be better targeted. With the help of statisticians we will each have our own designer drugs, no longer off-the-shelf but tailored exactly to suit our own individual genome.     

剖析消费量升降因素，完善节能量计算方法

能源是进行社会主义现代化建设和提高人民生活水平的重要物质基础。经济建设的增长速度和发展规模与人民生活水平的提高,与能源的生产数量、消费情况有密切的关系。我国要实现到本世纪末工农业年总产值翻两番的目标,能源是个重要的制约因素。如何在加强能源开发的同时,大力节约能源消费,是各级领导都很关心的问题。     

Optimal and Robust Designs for Estimating the Concentration Curve and the AUC

The problem of interest is to estimate the concentration curve and the area under the curve (AUC) by estimating the parameters of a linear regression model with an autocorrelated error process. We introduce a simple linear unbiased estimator of the concentration curve and the AUC. We show that this estimator constructed from a sampling design generated by an appropriate density is asymptotically optimal in the sense that it has exactly the same asymptotic performance as the best linear unbiased estimator. Moreover, we prove that the optimal design is robust with respect to a minimax criterion. When repeated observations are available, this estimator is consistent and has an asymptotic normal distribution. Finally, a simulated annealing algorithm is applied to a pharmacokinetic model with correlated errors.     

Modern statistics: the myth and the magic

Summary.  The paper is a personal exploration of the puzzling contradiction between the fundamental excitement of statistics and its poor public image. It begins with the historical foundations and proceeds through the role of applications and the dramatic impact of the computer in shaping the discipline. The mismatch between the reality of statistics and its public perception arises from a number of dichotomies, some of which are explored. In particular, although statistics is perhaps typically seen as an impersonal discipline, in some sense it is very personal, and many of its applications are aimed at providing unique benefit to individuals. This benefit depends on the creation of detailed data sets describing individuals, but the contrary view is that this represents an invasion of privacy. Some observations on statistical education are made, and issues which will affect the future health of the discipline are examined.     

Investigating the link between the Pill and cancer

Does the contraceptive pill increase the risk of cancer? The question has been asked ever since the pill was introduced, and is one that must worry almost every woman in the country. Small wonder that when the results of a long-term study, which began 40 years ago, came out in the autumn it made front-page headlines. As Phil Hannaford explains, answering the question was not straightforward.     

Exploring the relationship between gold and the dollar

It has often been argued that one of the reasons for holding gold is as a hedge against currency movements. An exploratory data analysis to examine the validity of this theory can be carried out quickly and simply, using some of the wide and varied range of nonparametric techniques now incorporated into statistical software—but, as Terence Mills shows, such a superficial investigation can lead to interpretations that deeper data analysis shows to be flawed.