人口结构变迁、福利制度错配与主权债务适度规模

老龄化和高公共福利支出是影响希腊、意大利等欧洲国家债务持续性的重要因素。医疗保障与养老金支出作为刚性财政支出无法形成税收,债务融资成为政府弥补财政缺口的主要手段,同时脱离了经济发展约束的福利制度进一步恶化了政府的财政状况。基于三期世代交叠模型,理论研究发现人口老龄化、公共福利支出的增加将扩大政府债务规模。实证研究结果显示,老年抚养比、养老金替代率等指标对债务规模影响显著。此外,债务负担率高于《马斯特里赫特条约》的欧洲国家,人口与福利指标对负债的边际影响更为强烈,这种差异来自于不同阶段的老龄化成本和人口结构变化速度,印证了主权债务规模应适度。     

人口结构变迁背景下的中国经济增长——基于动态可计算一般均衡模型的模拟

人口老龄化和民工荒现象暗示着中国劳动力低成本的优势将消失,并会对中国未来的经济增长产生负面影响。采用可计算一般均衡模型,利用联合国最新的人口预测,模拟分析中国2010-2030年人口结构变化及其相关的人口措施产生的经济效应后发现,由于人口老龄化导致的劳动力人口的下降,中国经济增长呈现逐步放缓的趋势,2025-2030年中国的经济增速将下降到5513%。而相关的人口措施可以缓解人口老龄化对经济带来的负面效应。其中,提高教育水平、促进人力资本积累对经济的拉动作用最为明显。     

Exploring Relationships between Social Policy and Changing Family Forms within the European Union

This article examines critically the linkages posited between social policy and changing family forms in European Union member states since the 1960s. While lower fertility rates, changing family patterns, population ageing and the rapid growth in women's economic activity can be shown to provoke policy responses, evidence for a causal impact of policy on demographic behaviour and for the diffusion of policies between countries is inconclusive. The article argues that policy environments are shaped by a complex array of factors, which may appear, in certain configurations, to be conducive to family building or to the development of particular family forms.     

Population momentum as a measure of ageing

This paper aims to show that the concept of population momentum clarifies the nature of the process of population ageing and provides a basis for comparative research through time and between countries. The paper discusses the role of momentum in age-structure change during the demographic transition and examines trends in total and age-specific momentum in nine countries with contrasting patterns of transition. The utility of the concept of momentum in the demographic study of ageing arises from its focus on cohort flow, from the insight it provides into the causes and consequences of ageing and from its ability to identify variations in the process through time.L'objectif de cet article est de montrer que le concept de potentiel d'accroissement d'une population éclaire la nature du processus de vieillissement de cette population et fournit une base pour des recherches comparatives tant au cours du temps qu'entre divers pays. L'article discute du rôle du potentiel d'accroissement dans les changements de structure par âge durant la transition démographique et examine les tendances observées sur les potentiels d'accroissement par âge et total, dans neuf pays ayant connu des types de transition contrastés. L'utilité du concept de potentiel d'accroissement dans l'étude démographique du vieillissement vient du fait qu'il s'intéresse aux flux des cohortes selon l'âge, qu'il fournit un aperçu des causes et conséquences du vieillissement et qu'il permet d'identifier les variations du processus au cours du temps.     

Second and Third Births in Armenia and Moldova: An Economic Perspective of Recent Behaviour and Current Preferences

Little is known about fertility in Armenia and Moldova, the two countries that have both, according to national statistics, experienced very low levels of fertility during the dramatic economic, social and political restructuring in the last two decades. This article fills this gap and explores recent fertility behaviour and current fertility preferences using 2005 Demographic and Health Survey data. Educational differences in fertility decline and the association between socioeconomic indicators and fertility preferences are considered from an economic perspective. Special emphasis is given to determining whether and how diverging economic conditions in the two countries as well as crisis conditions may have influenced fertility. Second parity progression ratios (PPR) reveal a positive relationship between the degree of decline from 1990 to 2005 and education, whereas third PPR declines appear the greatest for women with both the lowest and highest education. In both countries, logistic regression results suggest that working women are more likely to want a second child, as well as want the child sooner university than later in Armenia, and the wealthiest women in Armenia have a higher odds of wanting a third child. Dual-jobless couples are less likely to want a second child in Moldova and more likely to postpone the next child in Armenia. These findings offer some insight into the shifts in fertility behaviour in these two post-Soviet countries and suggest that despite diverging economic trajectories and a lessening commitment to the two-child norm in Moldova, determinants of fertility behaviour and preferences have remained similar in both countries.     

The Demographic Consequences of Conflict, Exile and Repatriation: A Case Study of Malian Tuareg

A framework outlining the potential impacts of conflict on demographic behaviour is used to analyse the post-conflict demography of Malian Tuareg after substantial conflict-induced social, political and economic changes. A remarkable stability in both fertility and marriage leads to the conclusion that an important demographic consequence of persecution and conflict may be an entrenchment of demographic behaviour which reinforces the population’s demographic identity particularly with respect to reproduction. The importance of unique historical, political and cultural experiences of a population in responding to conflict precludes the development of a ‘demography of conflict’, suggesting we should be pursuing the ‘demography of conflicts’.     

Population growth,internal migration,and environmental degradation in rural areas of developing countries

This paper examines possible relationships between demographic processes and the environment in rural areas in developing countries. Evidence is reviewed on increasing degradation in the forms of deforestation (of highland forests as well as lowland forests), soil erosion and soil desiccation. The conceptual framework considers changes in demographics as well as economic behaviour being induced by population growth and increasing pressures upon the land, but the focus here is on economic changes in the form of land extensification—often involving internal migration—and land intenstification. Despite data problems, the expected relationships are observed: countries with higher rural population growth tend to have larger increases in the arable land area and associated deforestation, but the intensification effects appear stronger. The paper concludes with implications for policy and further research.     

论第四次全球产业转移的宏观背景与发展态势

区域经济发展和差异动态变化,形成全球产业跨国跨区转移一次又一次浪潮.当前,在成本增加、产业结构升级等压力下,中国沿海地区大量制造业、服务业企业已经发生和正在进行向内地以及周边国家转移,形成了全球第四次产业转移浪潮.产业的空间转移既是对产业、产品生命周期的一种主动调整,同时,也是针对影响产业发展经济社会要素和条件变化的反...     

中国人口新常态与新型人口红利研究

进入21世纪10年代以来,我国人口发生了结构性与趋势性的转变,主要表现为人口自然增长率持续走低、劳动年龄人口减少、少子化和老龄化并存、人口平均预期寿命延长和人口文化素质提高等为主要特征的人口新常态.在人口新常态背景下,我国曾经以充足劳动力和较低抚养比为主导的传统人口红利逐渐消失,以人口结构调整、人口素质提高和人口城镇化水平提高为主导的新型人口红利正在产生.对当前新型人口红利的开发与利用可成为支撑我国经济持续增长的动力来源和成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"的动力机制.     

河南省人口红利与经济增长关系研究

基于柯布道格拉斯生产函数的理论推导,建立人均收入、人均物质资本和总抚养比三者的计量模型,利用1987—2013年的时间序列数据,通过协整理论对计量模型进行检验,研究河南省人口红利与经济增长的关系。结果显示：三者之间存在长期稳定关系,在长期,总抚养比对人均收入具有负向影响,人均物质资本对经济增长具有正向影响,并且总抚养比变化对人均收入的影响比物质资本投入大;在短期,抚养比变化并未直接作用于经济增长,物质资本的投入对经济增长的影响具有滞后性。     

年龄结构变迁、消费结构优化与产业结构升级——基于中国省级面板数据的经验证据

理论分析以及转轨时期的中国经验事实均显示人口年龄结构通过消费结构对产业结构升级起作用。基于1995-2013年中国30个省（市、自治区）的面板数据的实证结果表明：消费结构确实是人口年龄结构影响产业结构的重要中间变量,消费结构与产业结构呈正向变动关系;少儿抚养比的下降和老年抚养比的提高均促进了消费结构升级,进而有利于产业结构升级。此外,人口年龄结构的需求效应及其对产业结构的作用机制和作用大小在东、中、西三大区域间呈现出明显的区际差异。     

人口结构转变、家庭教育投资与中国经济增长

从一个两期的世代交叠模型入手,分析并通过数据模拟验证了在家庭和社会两种养老模式共同作用下人口结构转变对家庭教育投资与经济增长的影响。研究发现:人口年龄结构变动与人均储蓄率正相关;而家庭赡养支出比例与人均储蓄率负相关;人口年龄结构变动与教育投资率负相关;而家庭赡养支出比例与教育投资率呈倒U型变化;人口年龄结构变化、家庭赡养支出比例对经济增长的影响不确定。数值模拟结果显示:在当前条件下,中国人口年龄结构变动促进经济增长,而家庭赡养支出比例增大抑制经济增长。     

中国应着力开发二次人口红利

中国劳动力无限供给格局已趋于终结,一次人口红利正逐步衰减,将来要想为经济高增长提供人的支撑,就必须转向二次人口红利开发,着力提高人力资本水平,在这一方面中国还有很大的挖掘空间。借鉴美欧日韩等国家二次人口红利的开发经验,我们发现,开发二次人口红利的关键是：延长义务教育,强化职业教育,矫正高等教育,优化在职培训,加强健康保护,打破劳动力流动障碍。     

A cross-national look at married women's earnings dependency

Using the Luxembourg Income Study data we examine married women's dependency on their husbands' earnings in nine Western industrialized countries: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. When we examine the level and degree of dependency, and the labor force participation of married women across countries, the nine countries fall into the three clusters delineated in Esping-Andersen's welfare states typology. But when we examine the determinants of the dependency within each country, the clustering disappears. Wives' dependency increases with age, the presence of young children, and the number of children. It is reduced when wives' labor force participation and education are high relative to their husbands' and in families that rely more on unearned sources of income. The similarity of patterns across countries suggests that gender differences in the work-family nexus are deeply entrenched in all countries and continue even in the face of very active social policy to minize their effects. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, August 1995, Washington DC. Her current research focuses on gender inequality and parents' time allocation between work and family. She conducts research on various aspects of family demography, including household and family characteristics, co-resident grandparent families, cohabitation, and child care. With Suzanne Bianchi, she is completing a research monograph on trends in the American family. Her research focuses on gender, work, and family issues.     

人口结构变化与城市竞争力提升的互动关系:理论基础与文献述评

系统梳理人口结构变化与城市竞争力关系的理论观点,辩证分析两者互动关系的内在规律具有重要的价值和意义。一方面,城市竞争力对人口结构的影响经历了从城市经济活动的物质决定论到非经济因素的引入;另一方面,人口发展对于城市经济活动的能动作用越发凸显,可以分为正向和负向影响,而人力资本一直被视为提升城市竞争力的核心要素。人口结构中的人口年龄结构、人口红利、人口文化结构、人口产业结构和人口迁移等五个方面与城市竞争力提升的关系紧密,现阶段的研究也主要集中在这几方面。     

我国人口转变中的老龄化问题探析——兼论云南省少数民族地区老龄化问题

人口老龄化是一个国家或地区经济和社会发展高低的重要体现和结果,它不应是个悲观或沉重的话题。与西方国家相比,我国人口老龄化在人口基数、转变时间、经济发展等三方面存在差异,具有“未富先老”的特征。与全国相比,云南省部分经济欠发达的农村地区和少数民族人口比重较高的地区,人口老龄化程度较低,具有滞后性和后发性特点。人口老龄化从人口的角度标志着我国已进入了一个全新的历史发展时期,充满着挑战与机遇。     

Sweeping Changes in Marriage, Cohabitation and Childbearing in Central and Eastern Europe: New Insights from the Developmental Idealism Framework

In Central and Eastern Europe following the political transformations of the late 1980s and early 1990s, there were dramatic declines in marriage and childbearing, significant increases in nonmarital cohabitation and childbearing, and a movement from reliance on abortion to a reliance on contraception for fertility limitation. Although many explanations have been offered for these trends, we offer new explanations based on ideational influences and the intersection of these ideational influences with structural factors. We focus on the political, economic, social, and cultural histories of the region, with particular emphasis on how countries in the region have interacted with and been influenced by Western European and North American countries. Our explanations emphasize the role of developmental models in guiding change in the region, suggesting that developmental idealism influenced family and demographic changes following the political transformations. Developmental idealism provides beliefs that modern family systems help to produce modern political and economic accomplishments, and it helps establish the importance of freedom and equality as human rights in both the public and private spheres. The disintegration of the governments and the fall of the iron curtain in the late 1980s and early 1990s brought new understanding about social, economic, and family circumstances in the West, increasing consumption aspirations and expectations which clashed with both old economic realities and the dramatic declines in economic circumstances. In addition, the dissolution of the former governments removed or weakened systems supporting the bearing and rearing of children; and the legitimacy of the former governments and their programs was largely destroyed, thereby removing government support for old norms and patterns of behavior. In addition, the attacks of previous decades on the religious institutions in the region had in many places left these institutions weak. During this period, many openly reached out to embrace the values, living standards, and economic, political, and familial systems of the West. And, the thirst for freedom—and its considerable expansion—operated in personal and familial as well as political and economic realms. These dramatic changes combined together to produce the many changes occurring in family and demographic behavior.     

Spatial Aspects of the Rise of Nonmarital Fertility Across Europe Since 1960: The Role of States and Regions in Shaping Patterns of Change

This article investigates the role of states and regions in shaping spatial patterns of nonmarital fertility in Europe since 1960 using a dataset of 497 European subnational regions and smaller countries. Almost all regions registered substantial nonmarital fertility increases over the last 50 years. Prior research has shown that in the first half of the twentieth century states played a dominant role in drawing the demographic map of Europe (Watkins, From provinces into nations: demographic integration in Western Europe 1870–1960. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1991). As a result, subnational regional variation decreased, while differences between countries increased. In this article, we investigate whether states continue to play such a dominant role in delineating patterns of nonmarital fertility between 1960 and 2007. We find that variation in nonmarital fertility levels increased as a whole across Europe, and states continued to be important for determining these patterns. However, the role of states relative to regions declined in the latest period examined (1990 and 2007). Possible explanations for the changes include increased supranational integration, for example, within the European Union, and decentralisation within states leading to increases in variation in subnational contextual conditions.     

人口结构变化与城市综合竞争力提升关系研究——以南京为例

我国正处于人口结构快速变动转型时期,人口与经济发展存在一定关联性,它们之间协调发展就能较好地提升一个城市的综合竞争力。在创新和转型经济发展时期,以人口资源、人力资本、人才资质为主要要素的人口结构变化会对城市综合竞争力产生深远的影响。南京是长三角地区重要的区域中心城市,近年来人口结构发生了较大的变化,由此引发了南京经济社会适应性的变革,它们对未来南京城市综合竞争力的提升提出新的要求。     

Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues

This paper contains thoughts on the process of imminent population decline under way in much of the developed world and quite possibly in other world regions as well. We are witnessing the beginnings of a vast trend change which promises to bring to a close a period of population growth that has lasted for several centuries. It can be shown that this great change is a byproduct of the demographic transition that unleashed a number of the forces leading to where we are today. The extent to which much of the developing world will follow the reproductive trends of the developed world, with their social and economic implications, is discussed. The decades ahead for much of the world will lead us into mostly uncharted territory that bears few similarities with past periods of population decline. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate reflection and debate on a subject that looms as perhaps the key social issue of the twenty-first century.