Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?

Since 1950, most developed countries have exhibited structural changes in mortality decline. This complicates extrapolative forecasts, such as the commonly used Lee–Carter model, that require the presence of a steady long-term trend. This study tests whether the impact of the tobacco epidemic explains the structural changes in mortality decline, as it is presumed in earlier studies. For this purpose, the time index of the Lee-Carter model in males was investigated in 20 developed countries between 1950 and 2011 for possible structural changes. It was found that removing the impact of smoking from mortality trends took away more than half of the 12 detected trend breaks. For the remaining trend breaks, adjusting for smoking attenuated the degree of change in mortality decline. Taking the tobacco epidemic into account should become standard procedure in mortality forecasts to avoid a misleading extrapolation of trends. Nevertheless, more research is needed to identify additional factors, such as health-care policies and innovations in medical treatment, to explain the remaining structural changes.     

Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe

Cross-country differences in both the age at first birth and fertility are substantial in Europe. This paper uses distinct fluctuations in unemployment rates across European countries during the 1980s and the 1990s combined with broad differences in their labor market arrangements to analyze the associations between fertility timing and the changing economic environment with close to 50,000 women from 13 European countries. First, it employs time-varying measures of aggregate market conditions in each woman??s country as covariates and second, it adds micro-measures of each woman??s labor market history to the models. High and persistent unemployment in a country is associated with delays in childbearing (and second births). The association is robust to diverse measures of unemployment and to controls for family-friendly policies. Besides moderate unemployment, a large public employment sector (which provides security and benefits) is coupled with faster transitions to all births. Women with temporary contracts, mostly in Southern Europe, are the least likely to give birth to a second child.     

Are the Sick Left Behind at the Peripheries? Health Selection in Migration to Growing Urban Centres in Finland

We study health selection in rural–urban migration in Finland using register data. Specifically, we ask whether ‘movers’ differ from ‘stayers’ in their use of special health care services prior to moving. We focus on migration to twelve growing urban centres in different sub-groups of the population as well as in different regions, using multinomial logistic regression and multilevel modelling and by distinguishing between short- and long-distance moves. The results show that urban centres attract healthier individuals, while people with health problems are also prone to move, but not to urban centres. The results were similar when looking only at psychiatric diagnoses. The findings suggest that it is important to distinguish between different types of moves when studying health-selective migration. Studying the patterns of migration according to health enables us to understand drivers of regional health differences. Moreover, such evidence will help in projecting future demand for healthcare across the country.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s10680-020-09568-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Recent fertility trends in industrialized countries: Toward a fluctuating or a stable pattern?

By the mid-1980s, fertility in most of the world's developed countries had declined to unprecedentedly low levels. Since then, it has declined still further in some, increased slightly in others, and fluctuated in still others. Irrespective of cause, these changes could not have occurred in the absence of substantial control over childbearing.While future increases and decreases are both possible, it is argued that, contrary to the usual demographic expectations for populations exercising substantial control over fertility, fertility in most of these countries will increase to approximate replacement levels and then undergo only minor fluctuations around these levels thereafter.     

Differences in Gender Norms Between Countries: Are They Valid? The Issue of Measurement Invariance

The values and attitudes towards gender roles are often investigated and compared from a cross-country perspective without the proper statistical treatment of the measurement invariance (MI) assessment. This implies that the conclusions based on composite scales of gender norms, gender role attitudes or gender egalitarianism, to name only a few, may be questionable. In this study, we address this lack by investigating the cross-country MI properties of the Gender Equality Scale (GES) based on World Value Survey data. We use multi-group confirmatory factor analysis with and without alignment to determine the configural, weak, strong and strict MI. The results show that the concept of gender equality is not comparable across all countries involved in the survey. In particular, it seems to differ between Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe. We claim that only selected Central and Eastern European countries exhibit a configural MI but fail to show full weak MI and definitely fail to show full strong and full strict MI. However, under the aligned measurement framework, we succeeded in showing that for these countries, comparisons of the country rankings with respect to the GES are valid provided that a correction for non-invariance of certain factor loadings and/or intercepts is applied. Our study shows that the most egalitarian gender role attitudes measured by the GES are observed in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania and Croatia. They are significantly higher than the gender equality attitudes recorded in the lowest scoring countries Poland, Slovakia, Albania and Romania.     

Between ‘Pioneers’ of the Cardiovascular Revolution and Its ‘Late Followers’: Mortality Changes in the Czech Republic and Poland Since 1968

After several decades of stagnation, mortality in most Central European countries started to decrease after 1989. The Czech Republic and Poland were the first former Communist countries in this region to experience a rapid and sustained increase in life expectancy. This study focuses on the trends in cause-of-death mortality that have contributed to the recent progress in these two countries. The analysis is based on the cause-of-death time series (1968–2013) reconstructed in accordance with the 10th ICD revision, which makes the data fully comparable over the full period under study. Actual trends in cause-specific mortality are presented, and age, sex and causes of death components of life expectancy changes are disentangled. In both countries, the reduction in cardiovascular mortality at adult and old ages was crucial for the increase in life expectancy after 1991. Results are discussed in the context of institutional changes that occurred after the fall of Communism, such as the reorientation of health policies and the emergence of non-governmental organizations. Changes in health-related attitudes and behaviours as well as structural changes in societies, notably the rising share of persons with tertiary education, are also discussed.     

Subjective Versus Objective Definitions of Homelessness: Are there Differences in Risk Factors among Heavy-Drinking Women?

Investigations with homeless populations have focused on those living on the streets or in shelters; few have examined phenomena based on respondents’ self-definitions as homeless or not. This investigation examined similarities and differences among risk factors (including mental health, substance abuse, religion/spirituality, social support, and risky sexual behaviors) using two definitions of homelessness: one where place of residence defined individuals as homeless (the ‘objective’ or traditional, definition) and another where respondents defined themselves as homeless (the ‘subjective’ definition). Data come from the baseline survey of the NIAAA-funded “Sister-to-Sister” study (n = 339) of heavy-drinking women. Subjectively defined homelessness was associated with higher rates of mental health and substance use disorders, lower rates of condom use, higher rates of trading sex for food, and less social support. Objectively defined homelessness was associated with higher rates of drinking in abandoned buildings, on the streets, and in public restrooms, more new sexual partners, and higher rates of trading sex for heroin and speedballs. Investigations failing to ask for subjective information may misattribute some factors to homelessness which may overestimate the effect of various factors on homelessness. Investigators should ask respondents to define their homelessness, or they lose an important dimension of the concept of homelessness.

Entry to Marriage and Cohabitation in Russia, 1985–2000: Trends,Correlates, and Implications for the Second Demographic Transition

Recent decades have witnessed declining marriage rates and increasing cohabitation in Russia. Are these trends short-term responses to the economic and political crises accompanying the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991 or do they represent a longer-term shift driven by ideational changes like those shaping the “second demographic transition” in many developed countries since the 1960s? Our analyses of individual-level rates of entry to first marriage and cohabitation using 3,510 marital histories spanning 1985–2000 from the Survey of Stratification and Migration Dynamics in Russia show that the precise timing of these trends, the patterns of association between marriage and cohabitation rates and individual and contextual covariates, and the relationship between cohabitation and marriage entry mostly confirm the “transition” perspective. However, although Russia’s retreat from marriage, an especially radical departure from historically predominant patterns, involves ideational changes, the mechanisms driving these changes in Russia differ from those identified in accounts of the second demographic transition in other countries.     

Health Convergence Between East and West Germany as Reflected in Long-Term Cause-Specific Mortality Trends: To What Extent was it Due to Reunification?

The sizeable mortality gap between the German Democratic Republic (East Germany) and the pre-unified Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) narrowed rapidly after the two states were unified. Despite extensive research, the mechanisms underlying the convergence process are still not fully understood. Significant changes to coding practices and the system of data collection introduced in East Germany shortly after reunification have further complicated the ability of researchers to interpret mortality trends. Our aim is to assess the role of German reunification in the convergence process in light of the evolution of long-term mortality trends by causes of death. Compared to previous studies, we rely on much more detailed mortality data, which we first adjust for notable distortions. We propose an upward correction of cancer mortality, as well as corrections that account for obvious changes in the items selected within the ICD chapter of circulatory diseases. We identify three distinct processes that took place in East Germany around the time of reunification: (1) a sustained reduction in mortality that started before reunification; (2) a temporary increase in mortality in 1990–1991 that was related to the abrupt social transition, as reflected by socially sensitive causes such as accidents, alcohol-related diseases, and acute myocardial infarction; and (3) a reunification-driven process of convergence that was mostly caused by the accelerated decline in mortality from cerebrovascular and chronic heart diseases. Mortality improvements observed in the GDR starting in the 1980s might be interpreted as the first signs of a cardiovascular revolution. Shifts in individual behaviour likely started before reunification, whereas the real progress in medical care occurred later with the implementation of the Western system of health care. We therefore conclude that German reunification per se did not initiate the convergence process, but rather reinforced and accelerated trends that were already apparent.     

Marital and Reproductive Behavior in Italy After 1995: Bridging the Gap with Western Europe?

Despite a delay of 20–25 years, when it comes to cohabitation, Italy has now begun to resemble other Western countries. In addition, the increase in legal separations has accelerated since 1995, although their number still remains far from that observed in countries such as the USA, the UK, and France. Finally, Italy’s fertility decline has come to a halt: the cohort of women born in the early 1970s will likely have the same TFR as those born in the mid-1960s (around 1.55). Moreover, in the Centre–North areas, period TFR rose from 1.1 in 1995 to 1.35 children per woman 10 years later. The territorial diffusion of cohabitation, legal separation, out-of-wedlock births, and fertility recovery overlaps closely with that of the decline in births during the first half of the twentieth century. A similar geographical pattern has been observed for the diffusion of school enrolment, industrialization, secularization, and (during the last 20 years) foreign immigration.     

Are Head Coaches in Intercollegiate Athletics Perceived as Masculine? An Evaluation of Gender Stereotypes and the Effect of Sexism on Intercollegiate Coaches

This study focused on determining if gender stereotypes existed in intercollegiate athletics in relation to coaches, and if the discourse was enveloped within sexist beliefs. Specifically, we tested the relationship modern sexism had with traits ascribed to successful head coaches. Results indicated no gender differences in the traits ascribed to head coaches. Further, modern sexism did not moderate the relationship between gender and masculinity scores for the head coach. This research study bolsters previous research in that we found no gender differences in ascribed leadership traits, and expands the literature about sexism in sport.     

Gender identity,nationalism, and social action among Jewish and Arab women in Israel: redefining the social order?

In the study this article explores, the meaning of gender identity for religious and seclar Jewish and Arab women in Israeli society is examined. The study focuses on how Israeli women rank gender identity relative to other identities like being Jewish/Arab, being Israeli/Palestinian, religious or secular, of a certain ethnic group, and political identity. It examines the characteristics of gender identity and the attitudes that are associated with it. The analysis shows that the hierarchies of identities are different for religious and secular Jewish and Arab women, and that this is related to having different sociopolitical attitudes (e.g., Women’s social and political involvement, social obedience, social influence). Thus, the hierarchy of identities and the sociopolitical attitudes of religious women indicate a more consensual acceptance of the social order than the hierarchy of identities and the sociopolitical attitudes of secular women, especially among Arab women. Her main fields of interest are sociopolitical attitudes, perceptions of justice and gender issues. She is currently conducting a comparative research on the attitudes, beliefs and stereotypes of Jewish, Arabs, and Palestinian high school students. Dr. Moore is also an advisor to the Israeli Parliament (the Knesset) Committee for Women's Status. The research was financed by the Eshkol Institute for Social, Political, and Economic Research. We are grateful to Hanna Levinson and Majid al-Haj who managed data collection at the Guttman Institute of Applied Research.     

Marriage Migration Versus Family Reunification: How Does the Marriage and Migration History Affect the Timing of First and Second Childbirth Among Turkish Immigrants in Germany?

Our study focuses on the fertility of first-generation female and male Turkish migrants in Germany. To evaluate whether timing effects such as fertility disruption or an interrelation of marriage, migration and childbirth occur, we examine first and second births in the years before and after immigration to Germany. The Turkish sample of the Generations and Gender Survey which was conducted in 2006 offers the unique opportunity to examine Turkish immigrants as a single immigrant category. We question the common understanding that Turkish immigrants who arrived to Germany after 1973 mainly arrived for family reunification resulting in high birth intensities immediately after immigration. To distinguish different circumstances under which male and female immigrants have arrived to Germany, we include the combined marriage and migration history of the couple. We find that first birth probabilities are elevated during the years immediately following migration. But this effect is not universal among migrants with different marriage and migration histories. It appears that the arrival effect of high birth intensities is particularly high among female immigrants and is evident only among marriage migrants, that is Turks who married a partner who already lived in Germany at the time of the wedding. By contrast, among those who immigrated for family reunification, we do not find such an arrival effect.