An expert system for statistical consulting

The authors have developed an expert system for the analysis of variance to provide guidance to the data analyst on preparing data, selecting statistical methods and choosing computer programs. This system queries the user on the type of data, sampling method and design considerations. It then suggests an appropriate analysis of variance routine and statistical package. The system provides help in understanding the computer output and with model evaluation. The primary user is a scientist with some knowledge of statistics. This system gives the user easy access to statistical expertise and frees the consultant from some important but routine tasks. It may also be a tool to train users and statistical consultants. A significant benefit of this exercise was an increased understanding of the statistical strategies used by consultants and the complexity of the statistical consulting process between humans. This paper will focus on the problem formulation, acquisition of the knowledge base, the model structure and educational benefits.     

Categorical data regression diagnostics for remote access servers

Owing to the growing concerns over data confidentiality, many national statistical agencies are considering remote access servers to disseminate data to the public. With remote servers, users submit requests for output from statistical models fit using the collected data, but they are not allowed access to the data. Remote servers also should enable users to check the fit of their models; however, standard diagnostics like residuals or influence statistics can disclose individual data values. In this article, we present diagnostics for categorical data regressions that can be safely and usefully employed in remote servers. We illustrate the diagnostics with simulation studies.     

Perturbed robust linear estimating equations for confidentiality protection in remote analysis

National statistical agencies and other data custodians collect and hold a vast amount of survey and census data, containing information vital for research and policy analysis. However, the problem of allowing analysis of these data, while protecting respondent confidentiality, has proved challenging to address. In this paper we will focus on the remote analysis approach, under which a confidential dataset is held in a secure environment under the direct control of the data custodian agency. A computer system within the secure environment accepts a query from an analyst, runs it on the data, then returns the results to the analyst. In particular, the analyst does not have direct access to the data at all, and cannot view any microdata records. We further focus on the fitting of linear regression models to confidential data in the presence of outliers and influential points, such as are often present in business data. We propose a new method for protecting confidentiality in linear regression via a remote analysis system, that provides additional confidentiality protection for outliers and influential points in the data. The method we describe in this paper was designed for the prototype DataAnalyser system developed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, however the method would be suitable for similar remote analysis systems.     

Model Diagnostics for Remote Access Regression Servers

To protect public-use microdata, one approach is not to allow users access to the microdata. Instead, users submit analyses to a remote computer that reports back basic output from the fitted model, such as coefficients and standard errors. To be most useful, this remote server also should provide some way for users to check the fit of their models, without disclosing actual data values. This paper discusses regression diagnostics for remote servers. The proposal is to release synthetic diagnostics—i.e. simulated values of residuals and dependent and independent variables–constructed to mimic the relationships among the real-data residuals and independent variables. Using simulations, it is shown that the proposed synthetic diagnostics can reveal model inadequacies without substantial increase in the risk of disclosures. This approach also can be used to develop remote server diagnostics for generalized linear models.     

政府统计部门实施用户满意度调查的若干构想——基于欧洲统计系统的实践经验

通过用户满意度调查来测量用户对统计数据质量水平的主观感知,为统计数据质量评估与控制提供了一条重要的信息渠道。基于对政府统计部门实施用户满意度调查的社会背景及其必要性的分析,借鉴在国际同领域实践中起步较早的、较具代表性的欧洲统计系统用户满意度调查的相关实践经验,对中国政府统计部门实施用户满意度调查的制度保障、目标定位与内容设计以及调查组织实施等方面的实践要领进行了探讨。     

Quality Management: Development of a Framework for a Statistical Agency

Over the last 20 years there has been an increasing focus on quality management (QM) as a distinct and necessary element of any competitive business organization. Although quality has always been a concern of national statistical agencies, quality improvements within such organizations have been achieved through a variety of different independent initiatives rather than through concerted effort under the umbrella of a formal “QM program.” This article addresses the application of QM to a national statistical agency. The essential elements of QM are reviewed from the perspective of a statistical agency. Ongoing quality initiatives at Statistics Canada and at other statistical agencies are described. The article concludes by identifying some of the major considerations in developing a QM strategy for Statistics Canada.     

A metadata approach to statistical query processing

Concerning the task of integrating census and survey data from different sources as it is carried out by supranational statistical agencies, a formal metadata approach is investigated which supports data integration and table processing simultaneously. To this end, a metadata model is devised such that statistical query processing is accomplished by means of symbolic reasoning on machine-readable, operative metadata. As in databases, statistical queries are stated as formal expressions specifying declaratively what the intended output is; the operations necessary to retrieve appropriate available source data and to aggregate source data into the requested macrodata are derived mechanically. Using simple mathematics, this paper focuses particularly on the metadata model devised to harmonize semantically related data sources as well as the table model providing the principal data structure of the proposed system. Only an outline of the general design of a statistical information system based on the proposed metadata model is given and the state of development is summarized briefly.     

二级统计体系在中国的可行性探讨

文章指出:中国政府统计体系的根本问题在于机构层层设置所导致的效率低下,而克服当前困境的根本出路在于减少机构层次。从长远看,由国家统计局和县级统计局构成的二级统计体系是中国政府统计体系改革的目标模式。     

Get Full Text Research and the Search for Appropriate Copies

Abstract

A group of the largest academic publishers has launched a new service to simplify access to full-text research for users of discovery services and scholarly collaboration platforms. While this service aims to provide easy access to full-text articles using article-level entitlement information linked to institutions through Seamlessaccess.org, it also introduces ambiguity. The service allows for publishers to direct users to alternative versions when a full-text entitlement is not found for the user, though users may already be entitled to full text through providers that do not participate in the service. Depending on specific implementations, this could lead to further confusion and make it more difficult for users to find an appropriate copy.     

国外微观数据发布的进展与启示

 实证研究离不开数据,当前,官方汇总数据日益成为一种公共产品,研究团体和社会公众有很多渠道获取。但是,由于技术、经济、法律、甚至是政治等种种因素的制约,微观统计数据共享和传播渠道缺失,迫使研究团体和个人自己去进行数据收集,造成大量的重复劳动和财力时间的浪费。同时,对于已有微观统计数据的开发不足,降低了数据收集的回报,严重制约了统计能力的提升。本文对微观数据发布的现状进行了中外比较,讨论了微观数据发布的效用与风险,指出最关键的问题是满足日益增长的数据需求和统计泄密风险的矛盾,并且介绍了当前国际上常用的控制泄密风险的方法,并最终结合实际情况对中国的微观数据发布提出相关的建议。     

互联网接入服务客户满意度实证研究——以陕西省为例

针对陕西省网站用户流失率超过80％反映出的陕西省互联网接入服务客户满意度指数很低的现实,构建互联网接入服务客户满意度模型,在对陕西省223家网站用户抽样问卷调查的基础上,运用结构方程模型,实证分析互联网接人服务客户满意度及其影响因素的关系,认定接人资费、客户沟通、硬件设施、服务质量及客户关怀对网站用户满意度都有显著影响,提出提升满意度的几点对策.     

Inference Tests for Gini-Based Tax Progressivity Indexes

Distribution-free statistical inference procedures for changes in Lorenz- and Gini-based indexes of tax progressivity are developed and applied. Related but distinct tests for the Reynolds–Smolensky index of residual progression and the Kakwani index of liability progression are provided. The inference procedures are illustrated by applying them to Luxembourg Income Study microdata for Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States before and after periods of tax reform. In each country a finding of significant change depends on the choice among progressivity indexes. No single index exhibits a consistent pattern of significant change in all countries across time.     

The Agree Consultant:more agreeable software?

This paper first describes a program AGREE calculating many variants of coefficients for interobserver agreement. A pilot program MOCK was written, aimed at helping unitiated users of AGREE to select the most appropriate coeflcient, given the data type and the research goal. It is a mock-up version of the data entrance and analysis sections of AGREE, to which are added some menus and a knowledge-based CONSULTANT system questioning the user. Results of a small experiment with four variants of the CONSULTANT are presented. This leads to a discussion of desirable features for this kind of help programs and preprocessors for specialized statistical software.     

Statistical Microcomputing—Like it is

A statistical software package is a collaborative effort between a program's authors and users. When statistical analysis took place exclusively on mainframe computers, the entire statistical community was served by some three to six major packages, which helped to ensure that program errors would be quickly uncovered and corrected. The current trend toward performing statistical analysis on microcomputers has resulted in an explosion of software of varying quality, with more than 200 packages for the IBM PC alone. Since all of these programs are competing for the same base of knowledgeable users, the number of sophisticated users per package is dramatically less than for mainframe packages; the net result is that problems in any particular package are more likely to go unnoticed and uncorrected. For example, the most widely used shareware package contains major errors that should cause it to be rejected out of hand, and three best-selling packages analyze unbalanced two-factor experiments using an approximate technique originally developed for hand calculation. Several strategies are offered to help author and user reveal any problems that might be present in their software.     

Analysis of co-operation for consultation systems

A prototype of a statistical consultation system was developed with an emerging methodology for the development of knowledge-based systems. Although the Statcons-1 prototype has a working problem solver and an advanced direct manipulation interface, it appears that the intended users cannot work with the system. This problem is due to a lacuna in the development of Statcons-1. Therefore the methodology was extended to support the analysis of co-operation between user and system. This analysis results in a model of co-operation that can be empirically tested in mock-up experiments with future users. This paper applies the analysis of co-operation to the StatCons domain. Mock-up experiments suggest that a redesigned system would be satisfactory.     

Tools of the Serials Trade

Abstract

The primary purpose of information services has always been and will always be to reduce to a minimum the amount of time required by local users to obtain access to that information they need to do their work.¹     

STENO:an expert system for medical diagnosis based on graphical models and model search

Causal probabilistic models have been suggested for representing diagnostic knowledge in expert systems. This paper describes the theoretical basis for and the implementation of an expert system based on causal probabilistic networks. The system includes model search for building the knowledge base, a shell for making the knowledge base available for users in consultation sessions, and a user interface. The system contains facilities for storing knowledge and propagating new knowledge, and mechanisms for building the knowledge base by semi-automated analysis of a large sparse contingency table. The contingency table contains data acquired for patients in the same diagnostic category as the intended application area of the expert system. The knowledge base of the expert system is created by combining expert knowledge and a statistical model search in a model conversion scheme based on a theory developed by Lauritzen & Spiegelhalter and using exact tests as suggested by Kreiner. The system is implemented on a PC and has been used to simulate the diagnostic value of additional clinical information for coronary artery disease patients under consideration for being referred to coronary arteriography.     

Acceptance of Koha Open Source System among Librarians in the Malaysian Academic Libraries: An Exploratory Qualitative Study

Abstract

This paper reports on a study that explores the requirements and level of acceptance for the Koha open source software implementation in Malaysian academic libraries. This is a qualitative study based on interviews with system librarians from library application and system divisions in 5 Malaysian universities. The interviews were conducted to understand the technology acceptance, system quality and system information, beliefs and attitude of librarians and to provide insight into a user and open system relations. These factors can be critical in order to understand what may hinder the acceptance of open source systems in Malaysia academic libraries. The findings disclose that the level of acceptance of the Koha open source system among Malaysian librarians is high as they are satisfied with the information quality, system quality and system platform. They have positive intentions to use this system and believe it meets their current and future information needs. The requirements of its implementation are focused on perceived usefulness (technology), attitude toward using (users), and perceived ease of use (system). The subsequent influencing factors are a reflection of Koha system stability and users’ acceptance of this system’s information quality, system quality, librarians’ awareness, satisfaction, user confidence level, support for library standards, highly integrated modules, a web-based solution, intention to use a system, and actual usage of an open-source system. Practical implications include cost savings, outsourced system maintenance, and accessibility of the system after office hours. The Koha open-source system is a new paradigm in system solutions for libraries in Malaysia. The results of the current study are applicable to other library settings.     

Formal Serials Education: A Problem We Can't Solve or a Solution We Can Live With?

Abstract

Serialists have long believed their field is underrepresented in the library and information science (LIS) curriculum. A recent review of Web sites of ALA-accredited LIS programs shows no significant change in the percentage of formal serials courses in those programs. The problem of adequate formal serials education is examined in the broader context of LIS education as a whole. Increasing traditional, formal serials education is an impractical goal. Instead, we should develop continuing education opportunities, and work to dispel some of the mystique of serials.