Multi-Stage Model Estimates of Lung Cancer Risk from Exposure to Diesel Exhaust, Based on a U.S. Railroad Worker Cohort

A California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal/EPA) report concluded that a reasonable and likely explanation for the increased lung cancer rates in numerous epidemiological studies is a causal association between diesel exhaust exposure and lung cancer. A version of the present analysis, based on a retrospective study of a U.S. railroad worker cohort, provided the Cal/EPA report with some of its estimates of lung cancer risk associated with diesel exhaust. The individual data for that cohort study furnish information on age, employment, and mortality for 56,000 workers over 22 years. Related studies provide information on exposure concentrations. Other analyses of the original cohort data reported finding no relation between measures of diesel exhaust and lung cancer mortality, while a Health Effects Institute report found the data unsuitable for quantitative risk assessment. None of those three works used multistage models, which this article uses in finding a likely quantitative, positive relations between lung cancer and diesel exhaust. A seven-stage model that has the last or next-to-last stage sensitive to diesel exhaust provides best estimates of increase in annual mortality rate due to each unit of concentration, for bracketing assumptions on exposure. Using relative increases of risk and multiplying by the background lung cancer mortality rates for California, the 95% upper confidence limit of the 70-year unit risks for lung cancer is estimated to be in the range 2.1 x 10(-4) (microg/m3)(-1) to 5.5 x 10(-4) (microg/m3)(-1). These risks constitute the low end of those in the Cal/EPA report and are below those reported by previous investigators whose estimates were positive using human data.     

The Good,the Bad,and the Ugly of Corporate Personhood and Corporate Political Spending: Implications for Shareholders

In the Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010) decision, the Supreme Court rendered an opinion verifying the legality of unions and corporations to spend funds from their general treasuries to finance independent expenditures related to political and electioneering communications. Such speech and communications are constitutionally protected by the First Amendment, according to Justice Kennedy, who wrote the majority opinion (558 U.S. 22, 2010). The dissenting opinion questioned whether such rights should accrue to corporations, since corporations differ from constitutionally‐protected “natural persons” (dissent, 558 U.S. 50 at 2, 2010; Johnson 2011 ). The decision ignited a firestorm of controversy, which renewed interest in the legal concept of corporate personhood. This article reviews key findings in the Citizens United v. FEC case, then describes the historical, legal, and theoretical concepts of corporate personhood with the goal of unbundling the nuanced consequences of the majority and dissenting opinions of the Citizens United v. FEC case. The analysis then turns to a shareholder perspective, with particular emphasis on the implications for shareholders’ rights and responsibilities. It concludes with an exploration of options available to shareholders concerned about how to respond when a corporation uses its resources to communicate political opinions at odds with their own.     

A statistical framework for strategic decision making with AHP: Probability assessment and Bayesian revision

A probability assessment framework is outlined for an organizational decision involving a conditioning event (CE). The decision may, for example, involve a new-product launch (strategic decision) dependent on the outcome of market research (CE). The framework illustrates how Bayesian revision could be employed as related “news” arrives intermittently to revise current probabilities prior to decision implementation. A unique contribution of this paper is its utilization of the analytic hierarchy process to ascertain a set of consistent and coherent probabilities for the event/sample spaces at all stages of the decision process.     

Fundamentals of Health Risk Assessment. Use,Derivation, Validity and Limitations of Safety Indices

We investigated the way results of human health risk assessments are used, and the theory used to describe those methods, sometimes called the NAS paradigm. Contrary to a key tenet of that theory, current methods have strictly limited utility. The characterizations now considered standard, Safety Indices such as Acceptable Daily Intake, Reference Dose, and so on, usefully inform only decisions that require a choice between two policy alternatives (e.g., approve a food additive or not), decided solely on the basis of a finding of safety. Risk is characterized as the quotient of one of these Safety Indices divided by an estimate of exposure: a quotient greater than one implies that the situation may be considered safe. Such decisions are very widespread, both in the U. S. federal government and elsewhere. No current method is universal; different policies lead to different practices, for example, in California's Proposition 65, where statutory provisions specify some practices. Further, an important kind of human health risk assessment is not recognized by this theory: this kind characterizes risk as likelihood of harm, given estimates of exposure consequent to various decision choices. Likelihood estimates are necessary whenever decision makers have many possible decision choices and must weigh more than two societal values, such as in EPA's implementation of conventional air pollutants. These estimates can not be derived using current methods; different methods are needed. Our analysis suggests changes needed in both the theory and practice of human health risk assessment, and how what is done is depicted.     

Revisions of the Fish Invasiveness Screening Kit (FISK) for its Application in Warmer Climatic Zones,with Particular Reference to Peninsular Florida

The initial version (v1) of the Fish Invasiveness Scoring Kit (FISK) was adapted from the Weed Risk Assessment of Pheloung, Williams, and Halloy to assess the potential invasiveness of nonnative freshwater fishes in the United Kingdom. Published applications of FISK v1 have been primarily in temperate‐zone countries (Belgium, Belarus, and Japan), so the specificity of this screening tool to that climatic zone was not noted until attempts were made to apply it in peninsular Florida. To remedy this shortcoming, the questions and guidance notes of FISK v1 were reviewed and revised to improve clarity and extend its applicability to broader climatic regions, resulting in changes to 36 of the 49 questions. In addition, upgrades were made to the software architecture of FISK to improve overall computational speed as well as graphical user interface flexibility and friendliness. We demonstrate the process of screening a fish species using FISK v2 in a realistic management scenario by assessing the Barcoo grunter Scortum barcoo (Terapontidae), a species whose management concerns are related to its potential use for aquaponics in Florida. The FISK v2 screening of Barcoo grunter placed the species into the lower range of medium risk (score = 5), suggesting it is a permissible species for use in Florida under current nonnative species regulations. Screening of the Barcoo grunter illustrates the usefulness of FISK v2 as a proactive tool serving to inform risk management decisions, but the low level of confidence associated with the assessment highlighted a dearth of critical information on this species.     

1 network privatisation: The trend for the future

At the recent Financial Times Conference on Telecommunications and the European Business Market: the Perspectives for Change, two of the contributors examined the question of whether companies should “make” their own private telecommunications network, or “buy” a publicly-offered service.The topic is not only interesting as a case study of “make or buy”, but is especially timely in the specific field of telecommunications in Europe. In June 1987, the European Commission issued its Green Paper on telecommunications liberalisation and rationalisation of Europe's equipment manufacturers. Current difficulties include national regulatory powers, cross subsidies, lack of common standards, and lack of agreement on standards, frequencies and tariff principles. Not least, rapid changes in the technology itself has turned telecommunications into a Strategic competitive asset for companies.The two authors of these articles argue from slightly different perspectives; White as a major user developing into a provider, and Wilson as an adviser and provider. Both are convinced that the make or buy decision is an over-simplification; there are other, intermediate, options. Both agree that which ever decision is taken, it is likely to be the most important one in information technology that companies make in the next few years.     

Goal partitioning in a hierarchical organization

A mathematical model of the resource allocation decision process in a two level decentralized organization is presented. The model and solution procedure are capable of representing a wide range of behavioral situations. Some important aspects of the model are: (1) It allows for informational autonomy at both levels of the organization. (2) The structure of the organization can affect the final decision. (3) The goal setting behavior of the superordinate and the subordinates explicitly accounts for the decision maker's “bounded rationality”. (4) The model explicitly allows for both the superordinate and the subordinates to have their own set of goals. (5) A final decision is reached through an iterative information exchange between the superordinate and the subordinates. (6) The solution procedure leads to a resource allocation plan which reflects both the superordinate's goals and the subordinates' goals.     

Cacti with the smallest,second smallest,and third smallest Gutman index

The Gutman index (also known as Schultz index of the second kind) of a graph \(G\) is defined as \(Gut(G)=\sum \nolimits _{u,v\in V(G)}d(u)d(v)d(u, v)\). A graph \(G\) is called a cactus if each block of \(G\) is either an edge or a cycle. Denote by \(\mathcal {C}(n, k)\) the set of connected cacti possessing \(n\) vertices and \(k\) cycles. In this paper, we give the first three smallest Gutman indices among graphs in \(\mathcal {C}(n, k)\), the corresponding extremal graphs are characterized as well.     

Efficiency and productivity of the cement industry: Pakistani experience of deregulation and privatisation

This study evaluates the impact of privatisation on efficiency and productivity of the Pakistani cement industry. To address some of the serious concerns about the problem of dimension and outlier, we use a newly developed unconditional hyperbolic α-quantile estimator of Wheelock and Wilson to estimate efficiency (Wheelock DC, Wilson PW. Non-parametric, unconditional quantile estimation for efficiency analysis with an application to Federal Reserve check processing operations. Journal of Econometrics; 2008: 209–25). Subsequently, we use these efficiency estimates to calculate the Malmquist productivity growth and its components. The results show that deregulation and privatisation had the desired positive effect on productivity growth due to technological progress. We conclude that this improvement in the post reform period could be linked to political stability, improved economic conditions and a competitive industry.     

Work force scheduling with the search decision rule

This paper presents the results of a simulation study of the application of the search decision rule to work force scheduling for a manufacturing firm. The problem is of a mixed structure which includes fixed charge components (hiring and training costs), integer variables (work force size in each period), and interacting variables (work force changes, hiring and training costs, and overtime costs). With these elements present, the search decision rule produced lower total costs than the actual company decisions had over the simulated time period. The technique was found to be (1) flexible, (2) easily understood and implemented, and (3) computationally efficient, requiring only a few seconds of computer time per run.     

Managerial Use of Debt to Fund Municipal Government Risks*

In recent years, managers of municipalities have been forced to reevaluate the cost-effectiveness of their risk management strategy. In many cases, individual or groups of municipalities (pools) finance a self-insurance plan through the issuance of debt. However, no decision-making methodology for cost-effectively structuring the debt issue presently exists. Utilizing a math programming model, we examine a self-insurance alternative to conventional insurance that uses tax-exempt debt supplemented by taxable borrowing to finance a municipality's or pool's liability exposure. We implement our optimization model with actuarial and financial data from an intergovernmental risk pool (IRP) in the state of California, and simulate the effect of the trade-offs important to sound managerial decision making. We find that significant savings are realized by using a self-insurance plan rather than purchasing conventional insurance. We also find that managerial goals and risk preferences impact the decision when revenue flows are insufficient by themselves to reasonably fund expected losses.     

SOME OF THE UNDERLYING SELECTION CRITERIA FOR MIDDLE MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN FINANCIAL POSITIONS: A FACTOR ANALYTIC STUDY

A sample of middle managers were asked to make ratings regarding the importance of thirteen variables they considered when making decisions to select candidates into the ranks of middle management. These thirteen selection variables were developed based on previous research on managerial selection by Edwin Miller and on research conducted at General Electric by another investigator. The set of decision variables was then subjected to factor analysis in an effort to recover the fundamental structure of the decision space used to select middle managers. The analysis yielded encouraging results due to the distinctness with which certain factors were indicated. Three fundamental decision criteria were suggested: (1) a leadership-administrative skills factor, (2) a technical competence factor, and (3) a capability-willingness to work factor. These three factors were discussed in terms of their relevance to previous research on managerial selection.     

Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment: Information Tools for Community Adaptation to Changes in Climate or Land Use

To inform local and regional decisions about protecting short-term and long-term quality of life, the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) provides data and tools (for the northeastern United States) that can help decision makers understand how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by potential changes in both climate and land use. On an interactive, user-friendly website, CARA has amassed data on climate (historical records and future projections for seven global climate models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental variables, along with tools to help decision makers tailor the data for their own decision types and locations. CARA Advisory Council stakeholders help identify what information and tools stakeholders would find most useful and how to present these; they also provide in-depth feedback for subregion case studies. General lessons include: (1) decision makers want detailed local projections for periods short enough to account for extreme events, in contrast to the broader spatial and temporal observations and projections that are available or consistent at a regional level; (2) stakeholders will not use such a website unless it is visually appealing and easy to find the information they want; (3) some stakeholders need background while others want to go immediately to data, and some want maps while others want text or tables. This article also compares what has been learned across case studies of Cape May County, New Jersey, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Hampton Roads, Virginia, relating specifically to sea-level rise. Lessons include: (1) groups can be affected differently by physical dangers compared with economic dangers; (2) decisions will differ according to decision makers' preferences about waiting and risk tolerance; (3) future scenarios and maps can help assess the impacts of dangers to emergency evacuation routes, homes, and infrastructure, and the natural environment; (4) residents' and decision makers' perceptions are affected by information about potential local impacts from global climate change.     

Generalized Diameters and Rabin Numbers of Networks

Reliability and efficiency are important criteria in the design of interconnection networks. Recently, the w-wide diameter d_w(G), the (w – 1)-fault diameter D_w(G), and the w-Rabin number r_w(G) have been used to measure network reliability and efficiency. In this paper, we study d_w(G), D_w(G) and r_w(G) using the strong w-Rabin number r_w ^*(G) for 1 w k(G) and G is a circulant network G(d_n; {1, d,..., d^{n –1}}), a d-ary cube network C(d, n), a generalized hypercube GH(m_{n – 1},..., m0), a folded hypercube FH(n) or a WK-recursive network WK(d, t).     

高层管理团队内部社会资本、团队冲突和决策效果的关系——研究综述与理论分析框架

反映在结构因素、关系因素和认知因素三个维度上的高管团队内部社会资本为决策信息的交换和共享提供了机会、意愿和能力,有利于团队内部形成建设性的冲突模式,促进决策效果的提高.本文以团队冲突为中介变量,建立了高管团队内部社会资本与决策效果的关系的理论框架,提出了研究命题,并对企业高管团队内部社会资本的培育提出建议.     

A new sufficient condition for a tree T to have the (2, 1)-total number $$\Delta +1$$

A k-(2, 1)-total labelling of a graph G is a mapping \(f: V(G)\cup E(G)\rightarrow \{0,1,\ldots ,k\}\) such that adjacent vertices or adjacent edges receive distinct labels, and a vertex and its incident edges receive labels that differ in absolute value by at least 2. The (2, 1)-total number, denoted \(\lambda _2^t(G)\), is the minimum k such that G has a k-(2, 1)-total labelling. Let T be a tree with maximum degree \(\Delta \ge 7\). A vertex \(v\in V(T)\) is called major if \(d(v)=\Delta \), minor if \(d(v)<\Delta \), and saturated if v is major and is adjacent to exactly \(\Delta - 2\) major vertices. It is known that \(\Delta + 1 \le \lambda _2^t(T)\le \Delta + 2\). In this paper, we prove that if every major vertex is adjacent to at most \(\Delta -2\) major vertices, and every minor vertex is adjacent to at most three saturated vertices, then \(\lambda _2^t(T) = \Delta + 1\). The result is best possible with respect to these required conditions.     

A Case Study Comparing Static and Spatially Explicit Ecological Exposure Analysis Methods

Exposure to chemical contaminants must be estimated when performing ecological risk assessments. A previous article proposed a habitat area and quality conditioned population exposure estimator, E[HQ]P, and described an individual-based, random walk, Monte Carlo model (SE3M) to facilitate calculation of E[HQ]P. In this article, E[HQ]P was compared with exposure estimates from a baseline risk assessment that evaluated mink and great blue heron exposure to fluoride at a federal Superfund site. Calculation of E[HQ]P took into consideration a receptor's forage area, movement behavior, population size, and the areal extent and quality of suitable habitat. The baseline assessment used four methods that did (total and unit Tier 2) and did not (total and unit Tier 1) consider habitat area or quality; where "total" included all exposure units on site and "unit" only a given exposure unit. Total Tier 1 estimates were consistently higher than E[HQ]P (e.g., 169.1 mg/kg x d versus 21.6 mg/kg x d). Risk managers using total Tier 1 results for decision making would be unlikely to underestimate exposure; however, implementability of correspondingly lower remedial objectives could be challenging. Unit Tier 1 estimates were higher (e.g., 96.5 mg/kg x d versus 61.6 mg/kg x d) or lower (e.g., 3.5 mg/kg x d versus 51.1 mg/kg x d) than E[HQ]P depending on variations in landscape features. Total Tier 2 and E[HQ]P estimates were similar (e.g., 20.7 mg/kg x d versus 21.6 mg/kg x d) when an ecologically questionable average exposure was assumed. Unit Tier 2 estimates were consistently well below E[HQ]P (e.g., 17.8 mg/kg x d versus 61.6 mg/kg x d) when an average exposure was not assumed. Risk managers using unit Tier 1 or 2 results could be basing their decisions on potentially large underestimates of exposure. By forgoing average exposure assumptions, and explicitly addressing landscape heterogeneity, SE3M appears capable of yielding exposure estimates that are not as potentially misleading to risk managers as those produced with traditional averaging methods.     

期权定价理论的基本思路、方法及其在企业战略投资领域的应用

期权定价理论(OPT)在企业战略投资领域的应用代表近期西方管理决策研究方面的一大突破。该理论为决策者评价投资的战略价值并争取管理运作中的灵活度,提供了新的思路与量化工具。本文运作期权定价理论的基本思路方法,对一个简化的企业案例作具体分析,试探讨结合我国国情的应用性研究途径。     

Probabilistic dominance criteria for comparing uncertain alternatives: A tutorial

This paper is a tutorial which demonstrates the current state-of-the-art methods for incorporating risk into project selection decision making. The projects under consideration might be R&D, IT, or other capital expenditure programs. We will show six decision making methods: 1. mean-variance (MV), 2. mean-semivariance, 3. mean-critical probability, 4. stochastic dominance, 5. almost stochastic dominance (ASD), and 6. mean-Gini. We will also describe the assumptions about the risk attitudes of the decision maker which are associated with each of the techniques. While all these methods have been previously applied elsewhere, this is the first paper which shows all of their applications in the project selection context, together with their interrelationships, strengths and weaknesses. We have applied all six techniques to the same group of five hypothetical projects and evaluated the resulting nondominated sets. Among the methods reviewed here, stochastic dominance is recommended because it requires the least restrictive assumptions. ASD and mean-Gini are recommended when stochastic dominance is not practical or when it does not yield definitive choices. MV, mean-semivariance, and mean-critical probability are shown to be flawed.