Heterogeneity in returns to college education: selection bias in contemporary taiwan

The causal impact of higher education on earnings may be heterogeneous across different members of a population. Using a newly developed instrumental-variable method in economics, we illustrate heterogeneous treatment effects of higher education on earnings resulting from sorting mechanisms that select individuals with certain unobserved attributes into college education. The setting of our empirical work is contemporary Taiwan - a transitional economy that has recently experienced a rapid expansion in higher education. We find distinct patterns by gender, with selection bias most clearly shown among women but not among men: the college return to earnings is on average greater for women who actually attended college than women who did not attend college.     

The earnings payoff from attending a selective college

Studies relating the selectivity of colleges to the earnings of their graduates report inconsistent findings. Some find no effects; most report statistically significant but quite small earnings benefits from attending a more selective college; and a few studies report large effects. Analyzing two recent national longitudinal studies of college graduates, with models sensitive to selection bias, we find large earnings payoffs from attending a highly selective college both four and ten years after graduation. However, those returns are uneven: full-time working women graduates earn a lot less than their male counterparts from equivalent colleges, college majors pay differently, and family background also affects earnings over and above one’s college’s selectivity. Nevertheless, earnings differences attributable to college selectivity are striking.     

Leaving late: Understanding the extent and predictors of college late departure

Research on college dropout has largely addressed early exit from school, even though a large share of students who do not earn degrees leave after their second year. In this paper, we offer new evidence on the scope of college late departure. Using administrative data from Florida and Ohio, we conduct an event history analysis of the dropout process as a function of credit attainment. Our results indicate that late departure is widespread, particularly at two- and open-admission four-year institutions. We estimate that 14 percent of all entrants to college and one-third of all dropouts completed at least three-quarters of the credits that are typically required to graduate before leaving without a degree. Our results also indicate that the probability of departure spikes as students near the finish line. Amidst considerable policy attention towards improving student outcomes in college, our findings point to promising new avenues for intervention to increase postsecondary attainment.     

Broken promise of college? New educational sorting mechanisms for intergenerational association in the 21st century

Previous studies have shown that intergenerational socioeconomic association becomes weaker as children's education level increases and is negligible among college graduates. A college degree is known as the great equalizer for intergenerational socioeconomic mobility. Recent studies, however, reported that the strong intergenerational association reemerges among advanced degree holders although it stays weak among BA-only holders. Despite the substantial theoretical importance and policy implications, the mechanisms behind the reemergence of the intergenerational association at the post-baccalaureate level have been less studied. In this paper, we examine the association between parents' education and children's earnings using the 2010, 2013, 2015, and 2017 National Survey of College Graduates data. Our results show that the strong intergenerational socioeconomic immobility among advanced degree holders is fully attributable to three educational sorting mechanisms: children from high-SES families (1) obtain expensive and financially rewarding advanced degrees, (2) attend selective institutions and major in hyper-lucrative fields of study such as law and medicine in graduate school, and (3) complete their education at a younger age and enjoy income growth over more years in the labor market. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

Why does college education matter? Unveiling the contributions of selection factors

This study investigates the contributions of pre-college selection factors that may partially lead to the college degree – health link by using longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1979) cohort. Propensity score matching method finds that the effects of college degree on various health outcomes (self-rated health, physical component summary index, health limitations, CESD scale) are reduced by 51% on average (range: 37%–70%) in the matched sample. Among these observed factors, cognitive skill is the biggest confounder, followed by pre-college health and socioeconomic characteristics (marital aspiration, years of schooling, marriage, fertility, poverty status) and non-cognitive skills (e.g., self-esteem). Rotter Internal-External Locus of Control scale is not significantly associated with all four health measures. The effects of most indicators of family background (parental education, family stability, family size, religious background) on the health of adult children are not direct but through offspring's early adulthood health and socioeconomic status.     

Similarity in peer college preferences: New evidence from texas

In this paper, I use survey data from high school students in Texas to examine the magnitude of peer correlation in college preferences and choices. In this survey, respondents (and their classmates) recorded their preferences for attending specific colleges, and a follow up survey recorded their college enrollment decisions. This paper uses this information to present the first empirical examination of whether individuals who report preferences for “popular” colleges are more likely to attend their preferred college. The rich data set allows the use of often unavailable information such as distance to college, and the construction of the “popularity” variable allows the use of school-level fixed effects. Results indicate that individuals with 10 percentage points more classmates with matching college preferences are 3 percentage points more likely to enroll in their preferred college.     

Socioeconomic background and racial earnings inequality: A propensity score analysis

Does a racial earnings gap exist among individuals who come from similar childhood socioeconomic backgrounds? Is the racial earnings gap larger or smaller for those from higher or lower socioeconomic origins? This research addresses these questions by taking a counterfactual approach to estimating the residual racial pay gap between non-Hispanic black and white men from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The findings indicate that the racial earnings gap is larger among those from lower-middle class and working class childhood backgrounds than among those from upper-middle class backgrounds, for whom the racial pay gap is indistinguishable from zero. Compared to their more advantaged counterparts, black men from lower-middle and working class backgrounds have more difficulty rising above their socioeconomic origins relative to white men from similar social class backgrounds. Racial earnings equality among those from upper-middle class backgrounds suggests that the high levels of racial inequality often observed among those with college and professional degrees may in fact reflect heterogeneous childhood socioeconomic backgrounds among the college educated—backgrounds that continue to have an effect on earnings despite individual academic achievements.     

The declining earnings gap between young women and men in the United States, 1979–2018

We examine the dynamics of the gender earnings gap over the 1979 to 2018 period among full-time workers aged 25–29, focusing on the role of marital status and the presence of children. Using data from multiple years of the Current Population Survey, we find that the earnings gap declined among all groups of men and women, and by 2018 there was earnings parity among the those who were not married and without children. The share of people in this group also grew over the period, and comprised a majority of both men and women by 2018. We also find that while marriage was associated with lower earnings among women in 1979, by 2018 it was associated with higher earnings, suggesting greater positive selection of women with high earnings potential into marriage. The positive association between marriage and earnings among men remained stable. While we found a persistent earnings penalty for having children among women over the period, we found an emerging dampening effect of having children over time among men, which suggests that greater participation in childcare among men has led to lower earnings than in the past (i.e., a causal connection) and/or an emerging selection effect of young men more interested in childrearing over time, perhaps reflecting a cultural shift.     

Does it pay to attend a for-profit college? Vertical and horizontal stratification in higher education

Despite the recent growth of for-profit colleges, scholars are only beginning to understand the labor market consequences of attending these institutions. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, I find that for-profit associate’s degree holders encounter lower hourly earnings than associate’s degree holders educated at public or private, nonprofit colleges, and earnings that are not significantly different than high school graduates. However, individuals who complete a bachelor’s degree by attending college in either the for-profit or nonprofit sectors encounter positive returns. These findings, robust to model selection, suggest that the distinction between for-profit and nonprofit colleges constitutes an important axis in the horizontal dimension of education at the sub-baccalaureate level, and complicate notions of vertical stratification such that higher levels of educational attainment do not necessarily guarantee a wage premium.     

College for some to college for all: Social background, occupational expectations, and educational expectations over time

The educational expectations of 10th-graders have dramatically increased from 1980 to 2002. Their rise is attributable in part to the changing educational composition of students’ parents and related to the educational profiles of their expected occupations. Students whose parents have gone to college are more likely to attend college themselves, and students expect occupations that are more prestigious in 2002 than in 1980. The educational requirements of particular occupation categories have risen only slightly. These analyses also reveal that educational expectations in recent cohorts are more loosely linked to social background and occupational plans than they were in 1980. The declining importance of parents’ background and the decoupling of educational and occupational plans, in addition to a strong and significant effect of cohort on educational expectations, suggest that the expectation of four-year college attainment is indeed becoming the norm.     

Feeding the pipeline: Gender,occupational plans,and college major selection

In this article, we analyze gender differences in college major selection for respondents to the Education Longitudinal Study (2002–2006), focusing on educational pathways through college that lead to science, engineering, or doctoral-track medicine occupations and to non-doctoral track clinical and health sciences occupations. We show that gender differences in college major selection remain substantial, even for a cohort in which rates of enrollment in postsecondary education are more than ten percent higher for young women than for young men. Consistent with other recent research, we demonstrate that neither gender differences in work–family goals nor in academic preparation explain a substantial portion of these differences. However, the occupational plans of high school seniors are strong predictors of initial college major selection, a finding that is revealed only when occupational plans are measured with sufficient detail, here by using the verbatim responses of students. We also find that the association between occupational plans and college major selection is not attributable to work–family orientation or academic preparation. Finally, we find gender differences in the associations between occupational plans and college major selection that are consistent with prior research on STEM attrition, as well as with the claim that attrition also affects the selection of majors that are gateways into doctoral-track medicine. We discuss the implications of the predictive power of occupational plans formed in adolescence for understanding sex segregation and for policies intended to create a gender-balanced STEM and doctoral-level medical workforce.     

Exploring the spatial wage penalty for women: Does it matter where you live?

Inequality between men and women has decreased over the past four decades in the US, but wage inequality among groups of women has increased. As metropolitan women’s earnings grew by 25% over the past four decades, nonmetropolitan women’s earnings only grew by 15%. In the current study we draw on data from the Current Population Survey to analyze the spatial wage gap among women. We explore differences in the spatial wage gap by education, occupation, and industry. Regression models that control for marriage, motherhood, race, education, region, age, and work hours indicate that metropolitan women earn 17% more per hour than nonmetropolitan women. Nonmetropolitan women earn less than metropolitan women who live in central cities and outside central cities. The gap in metropolitan-nonmetropolitan wages is higher for more educated women than for less educated women. The wage gap is only 5% for women without a high school degree, but it is 15% for women with a college degree and 26% for women with an advanced degree. Nonmetropolitan college graduates are overrepresented in lower-paying occupations and industries. Metropolitan college graduates, however, are overrepresented in higher-paying occupations and industries, such as professional services and finance.     

Gender inequalities in the college pipeline

In this paper, we present a comprehensive framework for understanding gender inequality in baccalaureate degree attainment. Our “college pipeline” model addresses two main shortcomings in prior research. First, we examine multiple outcomes and stages in the pipeline that lead to four-year college entry and completion. Second, we examine multiple different pathways that students can pursue in attaining a four-year degree. Our findings indicate that females enjoy a cumulative advantage over males in the pursuit of a baccalaureate degree, but with two important exceptions. First, although females are more likely apply to college at the end of high school, they are also more likely to terminate their schooling in a two-year college than comparable males. Second, females who make an on-time transition into a four-year college experience the greatest advantages over males, and females who delay entering the college pipeline actually do no better than males in attaining a bachelor’s degree.     

The impact of the promise of scholarships and altering school structure on college plans, preparation, and enrollment

The Washington State Achiever (WSA) program was a large-scale educational intervention of scholarships, mentoring, and school redesign designed to encourage students from moderate and low income families to attend college in Washington State. Using a quasi-experimental design based on pre- and post-intervention surveys of high school seniors in program and non-program schools, we find a significant WSA effect on educational outcomes, net of the demographic and socioeconomic composition of students across schools. Across the three intervention high schools, the program is strongly significant in one school, significant after a lag in another school, and not significant in a third. We speculate about the potential reasons for the differential program effect across high schools.     

地票价格探析:基于耕地价格的思考

地票的价格是地票制度的核心问题之一,但目前由于地票定价理论的不成熟,实践中的地票定价除了力求农民不受损失外,缺乏真正让人信服的理论依据,且随意性比较大,难以说服公众。从地票的形成及交易过程可以看出,地票的价值是客观存在的,并最终通过征收转用过程实现。比较征收转用前后的土地价格,可以看出地票的实质是对征收转用耕地的国家粮食安全保障价值和生态价值的补偿,地票价格是农用地转为建设用地并产生土地增值收益的权益价格,该权益价格不是土地增值收益,而是耕地的国家粮食安全保障价格与生态价格之和。地票价格与土地增值收益此消彼长;不依成本定价,但必须制定最低保护价;呈上涨趋势,但上涨有限。     

General population estimates of the association between college experience and the odds of forced intercourse

Sexual assault on college campuses is a pervasive problem, recently receiving increased scientific and policy attention. However, the high focus on college student experience ignores general population prevalence, trends, and differences between those with college experience and those without. We analyze measures from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) to provide a general population view of experiences with forced intercourse. Forced intercourse is a common experience in the U.S. population, has remained stable in recent years, and varies greatly by gender, age and race. The odds of forced intercourse are also significantly higher among those with less than four years of college. This ubiquitous public health problem is not limited to college campuses. Measures from the NSFG are an important resource for understanding population rates of (and trends in) forced intercourse, providing information to guide interventions and better target scientific investigation.     

Applying to college: Do information deficits lower the likelihood of college-eligible students from less-privileged families to pursue their college intentions?: Evidence from a field experiment

Information deficits are considered an important source of why students from less-privileged families do not enroll in college, even when they are college-eligible and intend to go to college. In this paper, we examine whether correct and detailed information on the costs of and returns to higher education increases the likelihood of college applications of less-privileged high school graduates who expressed college intentions in their junior high school year. We employ an experimental design with a randomly assigned 25-minute information treatment about funding opportunities for, and returns to, higher education given at Berlin schools awarding university entrance qualifications. Our analyses show that our information treatment indeed substantially increases the likelihood of treated less-privileged students to apply to college. Our study indicates that our low-cost provision of financial information not only increased their college knowledge but also substantially changed their college application behavior, despite other existing barriers, like economic constraints.     

Religion as resource: Religion and immigrant economic incorporation

Much of the immigration literature in the United States points toward a positive association between religious activity and immigrant economic adaptation. Immigrant congregations serve as informal job fairs, build social capital for entrepreneurial activity, and provide a locale for leadership skill development. Using the New Immigrant Survey, this hypothesis of religion as economic resource is tested among immigrants receiving permanent residency within the United States in 2003. Somewhat surprisingly, most findings indicate a null relationship between religion and economic outcomes (i.e. employment, occupation status, and earnings). However, in instances where a significant relationship does exist, non-Protestant immigrants suffer the greatest economic penalty, particularly among non-Protestants who are not regularly participating in a religious organization. In contrast, non-Protestants who regularly participate have a higher likelihood of employment and higher earnings than their non-participating counterparts. Therefore, this paper extends previous literature in specifying that the religion as resource hypothesis operates best for non-Protestant immigrants who are actively involved in their religious organizations.     

College-bound friends and college application choices: Heterogeneous effects for Latino and White students

Friends are among the most influential social forces affecting adolescent behavior, yet little work has focused on the influence of friends on the decision to apply to college. Using data from the senior cohort of the Texas Higher Education Opportunity Project, we employed propensity score matching with sensitivity analyses to investigate links between having college-oriented friends and applying to college. We found that college-oriented friends increased the likelihood of applying to any college and to 4-year colleges, both for White and Latino students. However, Latino students benefited less from college-oriented friends compared to White students. Our findings suggest that college-choice models should more directly account for the influence of friends in applying to college, taking account of racial and ethnic differences, and future research should explore why Latino students benefit less.     

Educational expansion and educational wage premiums of young male employees: A long-term analysis for West Germany 1976–2010

For decades, Western societies have experienced educational expansion accompanied by an upgrading of skills. The literature provides competing hypotheses on the consequences for educational wage returns — among them are the positional value theory, routine-biased technological change, and the social closure theory. We test these theoretical perspectives empirically on young, male full-time workers in West Germany between 1976 and 2010 in two ideal-type occupational segments using 2.34 million administrative earnings records (Sample of Integrated Labor Market Biographies, SIAB). Our findings show no credential inflation across all levels of education. Instead, the picture in both segments — negative effects of educational expansion on the returns to medium- but not high-level skills — confirms the predictions of routine-biased technological change. Wage premiums for medium-skilled workers differ between segments: the premiums worsen over time in the general segment whereas social-closure mechanisms seem to weaken this negative trend for vocational graduates in the specific segment.