Walking ATMs and the immigration spillover effect: The link between Latino immigration and robbery victimization

Media reports and prior research suggest that undocumented Latino migrants are disproportionately robbed because they rely on a cash-only economy and they are reluctant to report crimes to law-enforcement (the Walking ATM phenomenon). From this we generate two specific research questions. First, we probe for an immigration spillover effect – defined as increased native and documented Latino robbery victimization due to offenders’ inability to distinguish between the statuses of potential victims. Second, we examine the oft-repeated claim that Blacks robbers disproportionately target Latino victims. Using National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data from 282 counties, results show (1) support for an immigration spillover effect but, (2) no support for the claim that Latinos are disproportionately singled out by Black robbers. We discuss the implications of our findings.     

Racial similarity in the relationship between poverty and homicide rates: Comparing retransformed coefficients

Criminologists have shown great interest in comparing the strength of the relationship between poverty and violent crime for whites and blacks. The present paper argues that the standard approach of comparing race-specific coefficients from logarithmic metric OLS and/or Poisson-based regressions has led to erroneous conclusions in this literature. Unlike researchers in other disciplines (especially economics), criminologists have largely ignored the need to “retransform” coefficients to their linear-effect representations before making comparisons between groups. The current study illustrates the importance of this methodological issue for the substantive question of whether poverty’s relationship to homicide is racially invariant (N = 134 cities). Similar to previous studies, initial results indicated that poverty’s effect on the natural logarithm of the homicide rate was dramatically stronger for whites than blacks (nearly 300% stronger for whites). However, after applying a broadly useful retransformation formula, poverty’s effect on the homicide rate actually appeared somewhat stronger for blacks. Further application of bootstrap simulations necessary to calculate the standard error of the difference in coefficients suggested that this racial discrepancy was not statistically significant.     

Heterogeneity in the rise and decline of city-level homicide rates, 1976-2005: A latent trajectory analysis

This study applies latent trajectory methods to the analysis of temporal changes in homicide rates among large US cities across recent decades. Specifically, annual homicide rates for 157 large US cities are analyzed for the 30 years from 1976 to 2005. We address the fundamental questions: Did all of cities experience similar levels and patterns of rise and decline in homicide rates over these three decades? Or is there hidden or unobserved heterogeneity with respect to these temporal patterns, thus leading to the identification of more homogeneous groupings of the cities? And if latent homogeneous groupings surface, is membership due to specific structural characteristics found within those cities? Evidence is found for the existence of four latent homicide rate trajectories. After identifying and classifying the cities into these four groups, multivariate statistical techniques are used to determine which social and economic characteristics are significant predictors of these distinct homicide trends. Criminal justice measures are also included as controls. It is found that larger cities located in the South with higher levels of resource deprivation/concentrated poverty, higher income inequality, higher percentages of the adult male population that are divorced, higher unemployment rates, higher percentages of youth, higher percentages of the population who are Hispanic and higher numbers of police per capita are more likely to be in a higher than a lower homicide trajectory group. Higher percentages of the population enrolled in colleges and universities and locations in states with higher incarceration rates are characteristics of cities associated with membership in a lower homicide trajectory group.     

American crime drops: Investigating the breaks,dips and drops in temporal homicide

ObjectivesWhile a great deal of attention has been given to the 1990s crime drop, less is known about the more recent decline in homicide rates that occurred in several large U.S. cities. This paper aims to explore whether these represent two distinct drops via statistical evidence of structural breaks in longitudinal homicide trends and explore potentially differing explanations for the two declines. Methods: Using homicide data on a large sample of U.S. cities from 1990 to 2011, we test for structural breaks in temporal homicide rates. Combining census data and a time series approach, we also examine the role structural features, demographic shifts, and crime control strategies played in the changes in homicide rates over time. Results: Statistical evidence demonstrates two structural breaks in homicide trends, with one trend reflecting the 1990s crime drop (1994–2002) and another trend capturing a second decline (2007–2011). Time series analysis confirms previous research findings about the contributions of structural conditions (e.g., disadvantage) and crime control strategies (e.g., police force size) to the crime drop of the 1990s, but these factors cannot account for the more recent drop with the exception of police presence. Conclusions: Although both structural conditions and crime control strategies are critical to the longitudinal trends in homicide rates over the entire span from 1990 to 2011, different factors account for these two distinct temporal trends.     

The link between unemployment and crime rate fluctuations: An analysis at the county, state, and national levels

Cantor and Land (1985) developed a theoretical model that proposed two pathways through which economic activity - as indexed by the aggregate unemployment rate - could affect the rate of criminal activity. The first is by increasing levels of criminal motivation within the population as deteriorating economic conditions affect social strain and social control; the second is by influencing the availability and vulnerability of criminal targets and thus the number of criminal opportunities. Although much empirical research has applied this theoretical model, few analyses have done so at disaggregated units of analysis. We present the most comprehensive analysis to date by empirically evaluating this model with data on 400 of the largest US counties - and examine the effects of aggregation on results as these county data are combined to the state and national levels - for the years 1978-2005. For seven Index crimes at each of the three levels of analysis, and with or without controls for structural covariates at each level, the directional effects hypothesized by Cantor and Land are found for 78 out of 84 estimated relationships. Even after taking into account the lack of statistical independence of these estimates by drawing on recently developed statistical theory, this is a very unlikely outcome. In accordance with expectations based on theory and prior research, (a) some of these relationships are weak and not statistically significant, and (b) the strongest and most consistent patterns of relationships for both the crime opportunity and crime motivation effects are found for three property crimes: burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. Suggestions for further research on this topic are given.     

Intimate partner violence in neighborhood context: The roles of structural disadvantage,subjective disorder,and emotional distress

Most theoretical treatments of intimate partner violence (IPV) focus on individual-level processes. Some researchers have attempted to situate IPV within the larger neighborhood context, but few studies have sought to link structural- and individual-level factors. The current analyses fill a research gap by examining the role of anger and depression in the association between neighborhood disadvantage and IPV. Using data from the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS) and the 2000 Census, this study focuses on structural indicators of disadvantage as well as subjective disorder, and highlights the complex associations between neighborhood conditions, emotional distress, and IPV. Findings indicate that anger and depressive symptoms partially explain the association between neighborhood disadvantage and IPV. Additionally, the associations between disadvantage, disorder, and IPV depend on respondent’s level of anger. Results underscore the need to further consider the role of neighborhood factors (both objective and subjective) in relation to IPV, and also suggest the utility of introducing individual-level emotional measures to assess the circumstances under which neighborhoods matter most.     

经济搭台,文化唱戏——兼论文化与经济的关系

文化与经济密不可分已经成为人们的共识.然而对于文化与经济的关系,一直存在很多误区,典型的就是"文化搭台、经济唱戏"的理念,指导了中国二十世纪八九十年代许多城市的文化建设与经济发展工作.十七大以后,文化软实力在国家发展中地位的逐步确立,标志着社会发展理念的日趋成熟.与经济相比,文化更接近社会发展的价值与目的.文化与经济是相辅相成、相互促进的关系,只有"经济搭台、文化唱戏"才能实现文化繁荣、经济发展.     

记忆场所视角下居民地方文化认同的建构 ——基于黄山市"保徽、建徽、改徽"的个案分析

受全球化与现代化的影响,地方居民对于地方传统文化的认同普遍存在认同危机的现象,文化认同危机严重影响了地方传统文化的保护与传承。居民地方文化认同的建构对于地方文化的保护与传承具有重要的实际意义。基于记忆场所理论视角,结合黄山市“保徽、建徽、改徽”案例分析,研究表明“保徽”传承了徽州文化记忆场所;“建徽”创造了徽州文化记忆场所;“改徽”拓展了徽州文化记忆场所。研究认为通过对地方文化记忆场所的传承、创造与拓展能够有效地唤起居民对地方文化的记忆,强化居民对地方文化的认同,从而长效地促进地方文化的保护与传承。