Links Between Demographic and Kinship Transitions

The demographic transition is also a kinship transition. This insight is obvious for certain types of kin—as fertility falls, parents have fewer children, for instance—but its broader implications for communities remain unexplored. Prior work on this topic has focused on how the demographic transition reshapes the availability of living kin within a society over time to the neglect of how differences in the demographic transition lead to differences in kinship networks between communities. In this article, I examine survey data (for rural Thailand) and use microsimulation methods to test how different pathways through the demographic transition affect kinship networks in communities. My results show that different routes through the demographic transition can substantially alter kinship network size and, entirely through the mechanism of demographic change, have indirect effects on community integration. These effects persist long after the demographic transition has ended. I theorize reasons that community‐level differentiation in kinship networks owing to the demographic transition are an important mechanism linking the demographic transition to modernity.     

Kinship networks that cross racial lines: The exception or the rule?

I estimate the frequencies of interracial kin relations, an important indicator of the isolation of racial groups in the United States. I use two techniques to estimate the size and heterogeneity of extended families. First, I develop a simple model that takes account only of kinship network sizes and intermarriage levels by race. This model allows a crude estimation of the frequency of multiracial kinship networks. Second, I produce more precise empirical estimates using a new hot-deck imputation method for synthesizing kinship networks from household-level survey data (the June 1990 Current Population Survey and the 1994 General Social Survey). One in seven whites, one in three blacks, four in five Asians, and more than 19 in 20 American Indians are closely related to someone of a different racial group. Despite an intermarriage rate of about 1%, about 20% of Americans count someone from a different racial group among their kin.     

Agricultural policies and human fertility: Some emerging connections

Increasing agricultural output and slowing population growth are important policy goals of many developing nations. This article explores the idea that fertility of farm families may be influenced by the policies and programs introduced in rural areas to increase agricultural output. Specifically, the article provides an initial framework for identifying the links between agricultural policy and fertility, and reviews empirical studies regarding connections between human fertility and policies designed to influence agricultural production in rural areas.     

中国农村人口老龄化对农业产出影响的量化研究

文章定量测度了1978年以来中国农业产出的特征事实并分析相关要素的影响程度。结果表明,1978～2002年中国农业劳动力相对过剩;2002年以后农村老年人口比重升高与劳动力转移对农业产出产生显著负作用;1990～2009年农村老年人口比重提高与劳动力转移年均对农业劳动投入指数下拉2.262个百分点,尤其2003年以来劳动投入对农业产出的贡献度和贡献率均为负值。     

城乡困难家庭的求助网络及其政策启示

文章使用“城乡困难家庭调查”2014年跟踪数据,对我国城乡困难家庭的求助网络结构和家庭因素进行分析,发现：血缘和亲缘关系仍是我国城乡困难家庭最天然的帮扶网络,但官方社会救助系统的作用已超过民间系统,邻里朋友仅在血亲和官方系统失灵时起补充作用;基层治理结构对求助网络的城乡差异产生影响,流动人口家庭求助网络呈现多元均衡的特征,但面临官方救助系统的制度性缺失;人口规模、低保资格两个家庭因素对城乡困难家庭求助网络有显著影响。文章认为,应进一步发挥社会力量的作用,针对我国城乡困难家庭建立官民并举、多元协作的社会救助政策体系。     

The economic boundaries of kinship in Côte d'Ivoire

The purpose of this article is to explore the patterns of economicsupport between kin in Côte d'Ivoire. The nuclear family has been dismissed as a meaningful unit within the corporate extended kinship structure of West Africa. Furthermore, extended kinship has been seen as an important support for high fertility since the costs of childbearing are shared within a wider kinship group and not fully absorbed by the biological parents. Extended kinship patterns are also thought to greatly facilitate informal insurance markets. However, data on economic transfers between kin in Côte d'Ivoire show a surprising but clear picture: kinship support in Côte d'Ivoire is primarily focused on close kin (parents, children and siblings). This pattern of kinship nucleation appears to intensify for richer households, despite controls for education, residency, nationality, and household size. The limited, cross-sectional perspective suggests that development is not working so much within the existing family structure but rather is operating to transform the ties between kin.     

中国刘易斯转折点的验证：基于农业生产函数模型的分析

文章借鉴Minami准则的分析框架,选取小麦生产为研究对象．利用超越对数生产函数模型和1980—2011年间的中国21个样本省市数据,对刘易斯转折点进行实证检验。结果表明：（1）劳动产出弹性存在显著的区域性差异,其中东北地区最高,其次是西南、华东、华中和西北,华北地最低;（2）农业部门的劳动边际产值正在接近实际工资水平,两者的差距在逐渐缩小且趋于平稳。由此推断出：中国经济已经迎来刘易斯第一转折点。这一结论不但有助于厘清相关学术纷争曼能够辨析新型城镇化的窟展阶殷和政革方向     

中国城市化发展对粮食生产影响分析

1990年之后,我国粮食生产变动较大,同时我国城市化的两个主要方面——人口城市化和土地利用城市化继续迅速发展,分别表现为:粮食总产量波动很大,人均粮食产量呈减少趋势;人口城市化保持快速推进,导致农业劳动力数量减少、素质弱化;土地利用的城市化发展速度更快,造成耕地面积减少、质量不断降低。数据分析显示,我国目前粮食生产仍主要依靠劳动力和耕地两大基本要素的投入,因此城市化的上述发展特征,将对中国粮食生产造成不利影响。     

Cambodia's Fertility Transition: The Dynamics of Contemporary Childbearing

Cambodia is undergoing a fertility transition, with the total fertility rate falling from 6.7 before 1970 to 3.0 in 2010. This study is the first to examine the contemporary context of childbearing in Cambodia and the drivers of this transition, analyzing the articulations of men and women and the rationales behind their fertility intentions and behavior. Findings are derived from 21 months of ethnographic fieldwork in urban and rural settings in Siem Reap. The article explains how patterns of reproduction are shaped by the specific context and social organization, the political economy, gender relations, and kinship system. In Cambodia, changes in employment conditions, agricultural systems, and living arrangements create new motivations that in turn affect fertility decisions. In post‐conflict Cambodia rationales related to lineage continuation and the effects of the Khmer Rouge period also emerge as important influences.     

Implications of population growth and urbanization on agricultural risks in China

Growing population, rapid urbanization, rising incomes, and changing consumption preferences stimulate intensification of livestock production and excessive fertilization of crops in China. We present an innovative approach that sheds light on options to prevent negative environmental consequences of food production. Trends indicate that agricultural production expansion will take place in “profitable” locations around densely populated areas, where there are generally insufficient natural resources to recycle production wastes. This will likely lead to increased environmental impacts and risks to human health, with the largest impacts in close proximity to population hotspots. We identify trends in Chinese agricultural production and devise and compare feasible mitigation scenarios. We present a spatial allocation procedure that facilitates management of agricultural production expansion, accounting for environmental and health constraints. This procedure, based on behavioral principles, uses a spatial risk preference structure induced by local conditions, including environment, production, and demand, with important research and policy implications.     

Preliminary discussion on the current over-population in agriculture in China]

The population devoted to agriculture constitutes more than 80% of China's total population. This high percentage is not very common in today's world. In the last 30 years, the population devoted to agriculture has increased by 81.9%, but the area of arable land has decreased in the same period of time. This situation has created problems, such as a surplus of agricultural labor, an imbalance between the agricultural population growth and agricultural means of production, a serious contradiction between the agricultural population growth and mechanization of agriculture, an imbalance between the agricultural population growth and means of livelihood, and the current low standard of living for populations engaged in agricultural work. In order to solve the problems of overpopulation, various measures must be taken in different places. The economic structure of agriculture is to be reasonably arranged, and various operations in agriculture are to be carried out. In addition to the production of main agricultural crops, forestry, animal husbandry, the fishing industry, and family supplementary income are to be developed in order to provide more job opportunities. Communes and production teams should emphasize labor intensive plans for more profit with less investment. Agriculture should focus on intensive farming in order to increase productivity. Arable land can be expanded with reclamation projects, and water and soil conservation is necessary. The surplus agricultural population should be utilized for productive activities.     

Surrogacy Wars: Notes for a Radical Theory of the Politics of Reproduction

ABSTRACT

State regulation of reproductive practices secure the heterosexual infrastructure of kinship through means that include elitization, institutional hostility, and plain criminalization. This article draws on personal experiences of gay fathers through transnational gestational surrogacy in Spain to show the extent to which that is the case even in those contexts where some gay and lesbian kinship rights are available. Public and academic debates on the possible regulation of gestational surrogacy will be analyzed through the lens of Gayle Rubin’s intervention in the sex wars that divided feminism in the 1980s, with which contemporary anti-surrogacy movements show crucial genealogical links. In addition, in order to unearth some gendered assumptions on the ahistorical link between surrogacy and motherhood, the role of the gestational carrier will be read in relation to the figure of the “bad mother.”     

Kinship institutions and sex ratios in India

This article explores the relationship between kinship institutions and sex ratios in India at the turn of the twentieth century. Because kinship rules vary by caste, language, religion, and region, we construct sex ratios by these categories at the district level by using data from the 1901 Census of India for Punjab (North), Bengal (East), and Madras (South). We find that the male-to-female sex ratio varied positively with caste rank, fell as one moved from the North to the East and then to the South, was higher for Hindus than for Muslims, and was higher for northern Indo-Aryan speakers than for the southern Dravidian-speaking people. We argue that these systematic patterns in the data are consistent with variations in the institution of family, kinship, and inheritance.     

现阶段我国农业主产区的剩余劳动力转移特征探析

农业主产区是我国重要的农业生产区,农村剩余劳动力问题在农业主产区尤其突出,探讨我国农业主产区的剩余劳动力转移特征,意义重大.本文从剩余劳动力转移的规模和数量、转移的地域特征、产业特征及特移的效益特征等方面出发,探讨了现阶段我国农业主产区剩余劳动力的转移特征.     

Estimating the goodman,keyfitz, pullum kinship equations: An alternative procedure∗

As is often the case in demography, Goodman, Keyfitz and Pullum (1974) developed their theory of the interrelationships of fertility, mortality and kinship numbers by means of continuous mathematics [integrals], but resorted to ad hoc finite approximations for calculating results in concrete empirical cases. Their reason: ‘Ordinarily, we cannot evaluate the l(x) and m(x) functions for arbitrary values of x, since the data are usually collected for five‐year age intervals’ [p. 24]. Recent developments in computer software now provide an alternative, two‐step procedure that avoids extensive programming of finite approximation algorithms: 1) using a popular scientific curve‐fitting package, functions are found to represent particular sets of discrete data on fertility and mortality, 2) the resulting functions and parameter estimates are then inserted directly into the kinship equations, and the integrals evaluated numerically using readily available mathematics software. This procedure has potentially wide application in other areas of population mathematics where theory is given by integrals and other continuous expressions, but data are for discrete age groups.     

中国城镇化发展滞后原因与对策

中国城镇化滞后于工业化和非农化发展的原因 ,既有体制原因 ,又有内在的经济合理性。要促进农村城镇化加速发展 ,引导农村非农生产经营企业适当向城镇集中 ,必须从两个方面做起 ,一是降低它们在分散经营时由于不规范性和无偿利用外部收益而具有的种种比较优势 ,二是创造适宜环境 ,扩大非农企业在城镇生产经营所具有的优势     

农业移民开发效益实证分析——基于对宁夏红寺堡灌区的调查

本文以1998-2004年已搬迁安置的34个移民村、136户好、中、差三个等次移民户的调查数据为基础,对红寺堡灌区农业移民开发效益进行了实证研究。结论表明,新灌区粮食生产和移民收入逐年提高,农业产业结构调整初见成效,基础设施建设配套齐全,文教卫生事业生机勃勃,城镇建设日新月异,社会安定,民族团结,实现了工程建设的预期目标。     

Canadian small settlements and the uptake of agricultural land, 1966–1976

The total area of built-up land in Canada is estimated, for the first time, and divided into two categories: the extent of all large urban areas, and the extent of all small urban areas. The agricultural quality of land urbanized between 1966 and 1976 is also estimated. Contrary to expectations, this area is small compared with the entire stock of land with agricultural capability. Small settlements, however, are expanding rapidly and have relatively generous space standards. The aggregate effect of this rural urbanization on Canadian agricultural production is not currently monitored, and a redirection of policy and analytical attention towards the small settlements is suggested.     

Son preference, sex selection, and kinship in Vietnam

This article examines the recent rise in the sex ratio at birth in Vietnam and relates its emergence to kinship systems and ethnic composition using 2009 census micro-data. Presentation of the main socioeconomic and ethnic differentials in birth masculinity is followed by a review of the three intermediate factors leading to increases in the sex ratio at birth: prenatal technology, declining fertility, and gender bias. An indirect measurement of fertility behavior is used to demonstrate the close association between levels of the sex ratio at birth and the intensity of son preference. Data on household composition indicate that Vietnam is characterized by the co-existence of kinship patterns typical of East and Southeast Asia. Son preference in Vietnam is found to be related to the prevalence of more traditional patrilineal systems. The article concludes by considering the implications of the cultural dimensions of prenatal sex selection for policy responses and for the likely future change in the sex ratio at birth.     

The allocation of time and goods in household activities: A test of separability

In this paper, we test for the weak separability hypothesis imposed by the household production model between goods and time inputs used in the production of different commodities. Our data come from a French survey which reports both expenditures and time that households devote to some activities. The results allow us to show that the weak separability assumption cannot be rejected only when households are strongly time constrained. In the opposite case, home time uses are found to be nonseparable. Received: 24 November 1999/Accepted: 16 November 2000