Social programs and household size: evidence from New York city

What determines how many adults live in a house? How do people divide themselves up among households? Average household sizes vary substantially, both over time and in the cross-section. In this paper, we describe how a variety of government policies affect living arrangements, intentionally or not. Using data from a survey of households in New York City, we find that these incentives appear to have an impact. Specifically, households receiving these housing and income subsidies are smaller on average (measured by number of adults). The impacts appear to be considerably larger than those that would occur if the programs were lump-sum transfers. Small average household size can be extremely expensive in terms of physical and environmental resources, higher rents, and possibly homelessness. Thus, we encourage policymakers to pay greater heed to the provisions built into various social policies that favor smaller households.     

Projections of households and household populations by household size propensities

This paper describes a method for constructing projections of numbers of households of various types and the numbers of people in that structure. The method uses the concept ofhousehold size propensity, that is the probability that a person of given age and sex resides in a household of sizea, c, wherea is the number of adults per household andc is number of children per household. Using data from the 1981 and 1986 Censuses and population projections to the year 2011, the method produces projections of Australian households and household populations by size of household for five-year intervals from 1991 to 2011. The research reported in this paper arose out of the University of Melbourne’s research program to study the structure, economics and technology of households. This research began in 1986 at the Centre for Applied Research on the Future in the Department of Architecture and Building and from 1991 has been continued by the Households Research Unit in the Department of Economics. Reports of this work are contained in the collection of essaysHouseholds Work edited by Ironmonger (1989) and in discussion papers issued by the Centre for Applied Research on the Future by Ironmonger (1987), Jennings (1989) Sonius (1989) and Ironmonger and Richardson (1991). The authors wish to thank Roger Jones of the Social Sciences Data Archive for running some cross tabulations on the 1981 Census one per cent sample tape, Vic Jennings of the Households Research Unit for his valuable contributions in a number of discussions, and the referees to thisJournal for numerous helpful suggestions.     

American Indian household structure and income

We use the 1980 Public-Use Microdata Sample to consider the relationship between household structure and economic well-being among American Indians. We focus on the total U.S. Indian population and on the residents of 19 "Indian states" where there has been relatively little growth in the Indian population by means of changes in racial self-identification. Using Sweet's (1984) scheme of household types, we find that the prevalence among Indians of female-headed households with children is intermediate between that among blacks and whites, but the prevalence of couple-headed households with children is highest among Indians. Racial differences in the distribution of household types and differences in average household size are important determinants of black-white and Indian-white differences in average household income.     

Modelling household income dynamics

This paper is about income and poverty dynamics and their socioeconomic correlates. The first half of the paper aims to establish some of the salient facts for Britain, applying the pioneering methods of Bane and Ellwood (1986). Important for poverty dynamics are changes in labour earnings from persons other than the household head, changes in non-labour income (including benefits), and changes in household composition, in addition to changes in the heads' labour earnings. The second half of the paper is a review and critique of the multivariate modelling frameworks which might be used to explain and forecast these salient facts for Britain or elsewhere. Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 22 July 1999     

子女教育与家庭贫困的代际变动

子女教育是影响农村家庭贫困变动的一个重要因素。本文通过对14省区609户农村家庭调查结果分析,发现子女教育有加深父代家庭贫困状况的迹象,子女接受教育程度越高,自身一代家庭摆脱贫困的比例越高,并且能传承下代家庭使其免受贫困;家庭贫困代际变动的教育断裂点为15年(大专教育)。     

代际关系、价值观和家庭养老－－关于家庭养老的文化解释

本文从宏观的社会变迁的角度考察了家庭养老的变化问题,作者指出:代际关系、价值观和家庭养老内在一致。随着代际关系、价值观的变迁,家庭养老的内涵、形式、特点及功能都发生了变化。文章指出在做家庭养老的研究时应该将家庭养老视为一个不断变化的与传统的家庭养老不同的概念而不是相反。     

A problem in household composition

"Distinction made between household-persons and household-markers [the person who identifies the family or household as a unit] is formalized in the notion of nested populations. This leads to an extension of the Leslie model into a formulation of growth for both population and households. The extended model involves the matrix presentation of household composition where ratios of household-persons who are age 0, per household-marker, function as surrogate values for fertility rates. The extended model describes change over time in the distribution of population by age, and in the distribution of households by age of household-marker, or household-head. The model involves the inversion of a nonnegative matrix, and is feasible only if it yields, projected over time, nonnegative entries in vectors representing distribution of population by age, and distribution of household-heads by age. Conditions for the feasibility of the extended model are discussed, and a sufficient condition for feasibility over a single interval is identified." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Family growth,household density,and moving

Residential and family histories collected from a sample of 4,027 couples in their first marriage and living in the Philadelphia-Trenton metropolitan area in 1960 are analyzed to determine the effects of marriage duration and childbearing on moving within the “local area.” Rates of moving decline sharply during the early years of marriage and more slowly after the tenth year. At any given marriage duration, the birth of children is associated with higher rates of moving. If the persons-per-room ratio of non-movers represents an acceptable household density, moving can be shown to be an adjustment mechanism whereby housing space is brought in balance with family needs. When couples who moved during a given three-year period defined in terms of marriage duration are compared with couples who did not move during that period, the movers are found to have had higher initial densities, would have had substantially higher densities had they not moved, but have similar terminal (after move) densities.     

Influences of household structure and composition on breast-feeding

Researchers applied longitudinal data on 2884 women who were at least 6 months pregnant between May 1983-April 1984 and living in the Cebu metropolitan area, the Philippines to examine assumptions which may explain the association between lower breast feeding levels and dwindling social support for mothers who breast feed in urban areas. Extended family households were much more common in urban areas than rural areas (46.3% vs. 27.5%). This finding did not support the 3rd assumption of falling extended family patterns with urbanization. Further as the levels of complexity and extension of the household rose so did infant care support regardless of location. For example, the number of hours of help with infant care for mothers in nuclear families in urban areas was 1.23 which climbed from 2.53 for horizontal extended families to 2.9 for vertical extended families and to 3.09 for horizontal and vertical extended families. This result supported the 2nd assumption of much more social support in extended families than nuclear families. Yet social support did not translate into promotion of breast feeding--the 1st assumption. Mothers in horizontally extended families had a lower likelihood of breast feeding than those in nuclear families. Further only adult female relatives of the same generation as the mother has a negative influence on breast feeding in urban mothers, but not rural mothers. In fact, female children of at least 7 years old, female servants, and yayas all negatively affect breast feeding in urban mothers, but not rural mothers. In rural households, young female relatives (at least 7 years old) significantly increased the probability of breast feeding whereas young male relatives decreased the probability.     

Postcensal estimates of household income distributions

This article develops and evaluates a method for deriving postcensal estimates of household income distributions for counties. A modified lognormal probability curve is used as a model of income distribution. The function is closely related to the classical lognormal model, but it contains a nonlinear component in its derivation. Simulated postcensal estimates of household income distributions are compared with 1980 census data for the counties in California. The results indicate that the modified lognormal curve approximates observed income distributions well and produces reliable postcensal estimates for areas with a wide variety of median income levels and numbers of households.     

Consumer boycott, household heterogeneity, and child labor

Consumer boycott campaigns against goods that are produced using child labor are becoming increasingly popular. Yet there is still no consensus on which are the effects of such type of activism on child labor in developing countries. In fact, if some agreement is to be found in the recent economic literature, it is that the boycott does not reduce child labor. We contribute to this discussion presenting a simple model which shows that there are conditions under which a consumer boycott reduces child labor. We consider a small country two-factor economy populated by heterogeneous households. The boycott affects both the adult and the child labor markets. We show that the effects are heterogeneous and depend on household characteristics and on the income distribution. We derive the conditions under which the consumer boycott reduces child labor not only for nonpoor households but also for some of the households whose’ income is—before the boycott—under the subsistence level.     

Long-term dynamics of household size and their environmental implications

Little is known about the environmental implications of long-term historical trends in household size. This paper presents the first historical assessment of global shifts in average household size based on a variety of datasets covering the period 1600–2000. Findings reveal that developed nations reached a threshold in 1893 when average household size began to drop rapidly from approximately 5.0 to 2.5. A similar threshold was reached in developing nations in 1987. With the notable exceptions of Ireland, and England and Wales in the early 1800s, and India and the Seychelles in the late 1900s, the number of households grew faster than population size in every country and every time period. These findings suggest accommodating housing may continue to pose one of the greatest environmental challenges of the twenty-first century because the impacts of increased housing present a threat to sustainability even when population growth slows. Future research addressing environmental impacts of declining household size could use an adapted IPAT model, I = PHoG: where environmental impact (I) = population × personal goods (P) + households × household goods (HoG).     

The role of non-timber forest products in household coping strategies in South Africa: the influence of household wealth and gender

The prevalence and ranking of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) as safety-nets has been well discussed, but rarely quantified. We report on group discussions and household interviews in two South African villages to assess the frequency and nature of shocks and stresses over a 2-year period and the coping strategies employed, stratified by household wealth and gender of the de jure household head. Overall, kinship was the most widely adopted coping strategy, and NTFPs were the fifth most prevalent (employed by 70% of households). There were relatively few differences in the nature of shocks or responses between male- and female-headed households. Wealth influenced the experience of shocks or stresses as well as responses. Poorer households have fewer options with the increased use or sale of NTFPs being the second most commonly adopted strategy. Increased use and sale of NTFPs is a common manifestation of the safety-net function. To reconcile long-term economic development and biodiversity conservation, it is important to understand people??s use of natural resources and the factors that affect this use, including their responses to shocks and stresses.     

Aboriginal migration and labour market programs

Despite the potential for government employment policies both to encourage and preclude migration among the Aboriginal workforce, little is known about the impacts of such policies. This paper seeks to construct a base line for identifying these impacts by establishing the spatial structure of labour migration among the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. It makes use of 1986 Census data to describe the volume and pattern of net and gross flows of working-age Aborigines and Islanders through the national settlement system, distinguishing between movements in remote and closely settled parts of the country. Full determination of the links between policy and migration flows awaits comparison with 1991 Census results.     

New household projections for the united states

This paper reviews the methods used to prepare the new household projections for the United States that were recently issued by the Bureau of the Census and examines the effect on the resulting number of households of the assumptions made about future marriages and future proportions of household heads in the population.One population projection series was used, since all series are identical for the adult population. Marriage assumptions were generated by assuming various outcomes of the marriage squeeze (defined as the excess of females relative to the number of males in the main ages at marriage in the next few years). Assumptions about proportions of household heads were generated by assuming, in varying degrees, continuation of recent trends in these proportions.Projected changes in marriage and in the proportions of household heads in the population account for one-fourth to one-third of the projected increase in the number of households; the remaining increase is attributable to projected changes in the size and structure of the adult population. Varying the assumed proportions of household heads produces greater differences in the projected total number of households than does varying the marriage assumptions used here. Nevertheless, the various possible outcomes of the marriage squeeze, as represented by the assumptions used, produce significantly different projections of increases in the number of young husband-wife households.The most striking finding is that by 1985, proportions of household heads among the population not "married, spouse present" may well rise to such a level that over the long term, the smaller the number of persons who marry, the larger will be the number of households.     

A new technique for measuring household changes

Because many recent policy decisions have been aimed at effecting changes in the socioeconomic characteristics of families or households, it has become necessary to isolate policy-induced changes from demographic changes in households over time. To obtain such longitudinal data, the family records from three panels of the Current Population Survey that were interviewed both in March, 1964, and March, 1965, were used in a computer record-matching operation.The resulting data confirm that approximately 20 percera of all households are mobile in the period of a year as evidenced by the nonmatched households that were found in 1964 but not present in 1965. More important, the data indicate that S percent of the nonmobile family households became individual households, or the reverse, and 15 percent of all the remaining households changed in family size. These last two statistics represent the first national estimates of gross changes in the demographic characteristics of households.In addition to data on changes in households, this relatively inexpensive method can be used to match Current Population Survey persons' records and provide longitudinal data on the persons within households. Over all, this prototype technique offers policy planners an analytical tool with the necessary statistical controls for assessing the effects of policy decisions and predicting policy success.     

Uncontained subjects: Population and household in remote aboriginal Australia

The particular abstractions represented by the terms population and house-hold are central categories in modern demographic analysis. They form the organizing principles of national censuses in Western liberal democracies such as Australia, and profoundly influence both the collection methodology and the content of the collection instrument. This paper argues that these categories are founded on a particular metaphor, the ‘bounded container’, that broadly reflects the population and household structures of sedentary societies such as mainstream Australia. Bounded discrete categories are conducive to the collection of reliable census data in such societies, since unbounded behaviours can be controlled for by statistical means. However, remote Abprogoma; populations behave in radically unbounded ways. This paper proposes that the dominant metaphor underlying Yolngu (and much remote Aboriginal) sociality is, instead, the nodal network. It then explores the consequences of attempting to capture nodal network societies in terms of models based on the bounded container.     

Relational contracts for household formation,fertility choice and separation

This paper applies the theory of relational contracts to a model in which a couple decides upon fertility and subsequently on continuation of the relationship. We formalize the idea that within-household-cooperation can be supported by selfinterest. Since the costs of raising children—a household public good—are unequally distributed between partners, a conflict between individually optimal and efficient decisions exists. Side-payments can support cooperation but are not legally enforceable and thus have to be part of an equilibrium. This requires stable relationships and credible punishment threats.Within this framework, we analyze the effects of separation costs and post-separation alimony payments on couples’ fertility decisions. We derive the predictions that higher separation costs and higher alimony payments facilitate cooperation and hence increase fertility. We present empirical evidence based on a recent German reform that reduced rights to post-divorce alimony payments. We find that this reform reduced in-wedlock fertility.     

On the relationship between household composition and population age distribution

Summary Composition of households by age of head and by age of other household members has recently been presented in a convenient algebraic expression, the household composition matrix. It has been shown that this matrix operates as a linear transformation from the vector of household distribution by age of head to the vector of population age distribution. A further analysis will show that the first row of the matrix may be interpreted as representing a vector of average household fertility rates. If the linear relationship between household and population distributions is fully implemented, then a relationship between household fertility and the size of the youngest age group can be derived. If w is the population age distribution and w (1) is the number of persons in the youngest age group, then: where α is the first row of the household composition matrix with its first element eliminated, C is the household composition matrix with its first row and first column eliminated, and Ψ is the vector w with its first element, w (1) eliminated. Extension of this result will enable simultaneous projection of population and households, suitable for computer application to conventional five-year age groups.