重大工程项目风险管理中的综合集成方法

随着我国计划经济体制向市场经济体制的逐步过渡,重大工程项目所面临的风险越来越大,加强对重大工程项目风险管理的理论研究和实际应用就显得非常重要。本文对重大工程项目中风险的特点进行了剖析,提出了以综合集成方法为指导对重大工程项目进行全寿命动态风险管理的观点,并对如何制订和实施项目风险管理计划作了具体分析。     

复杂决策问题求解的定性与定量综合集成方法

就复杂决策问题求解的定性与定量综合集成方法研究领域中如何实现复杂问题的表示、理解与求解等问题提出了看法 ,并针对复杂决策问题 ,建立了一个更加符合人类思维习惯的综合集成方法三层次理论框架 ,该框架由复杂问题定性简化处理层、复杂问题定量分析层及复杂问题定性定量综合集成求解层三个层次组成 ,同时研析了这三个组成层次的主要研究内容 .本文在运用综合集成方法解决问题过程 ,如何实现人机完美结合问题也作了有益的探索     

大型工程建设项目组织综合集成模式

针对大型工程项目组织现状,应用系统论和综合集成方法,提出了工程项目组织基本原理图。构建了项目组织的十元组模型和十纬度集成理论,并对维度进行分析和归约。在此基础上,建立了工程项目组织集成的逻辑框架、结构框架、运作机制和运作框架,以及集成的组织中人力资源的配置方案,进而提出了宜组织的概念。最后将其应用于工程项目实践中,验证证实取得较好效果。这一大型工程项目组织综合集成模式同样也适合特大型工程项目的组织构造,具有较强的理论先进性和使用价值。     

综合集成研讨厅的研制

为处理经济系统这类的复杂巨系统及与其有关的决策问题, 国内学者以“系统论”的观 点, 于1990 年提出从定性到定量的综合集成法. 1992 年又进一步把该方法加以拓广, 形成综 合集成研讨厅. 在上述工作的基础上, 就工程化的研讨厅的设计与实施中的体系结构、关键问 题、工作方式与研讨流程等进行详细讨论; 并结合当前Internet 技术群的发展, 一方面把参加 研讨厅的成员的条件适当放宽与调整, 听取与收集广大群众的意见; 另一方面把研讨厅扩展为 分布式的, 将综合集成研讨厅建立在因特网的基础上, 讨论了基于Internet 技术群构建研讨厅 的技术路线与思路. 上述工作使得综合集成研讨厅有可能成为决策科学化、民主化的综合集成 决策支持系统.     

泛综合评价信息集成框架求解算法及应用

针对多信息来源、多数据结构的复杂评价问题,对传统评价模式进行拓展并提出了泛综合评价的方法。泛综合评价理论主要为复杂评价信息的整合及求解提供支撑,具体而言主要采用构建信息融合框架的方式对不同类别与结构的多源信息进行整合,并通过随机模拟仿真的方法对信息融合框架的求解算法进行了探讨。由于信息融合框架中包含信息的复杂性增加了框架的求解成本,因而进一步分析了信息集成框架的简化求解算法,并通过算例的方式对信息集成框架简化求解算法的有效性进行了验证。简化求解算法的研究提升了泛综合评价在实际应用中的可操作性。"区域发展绩效的参与式评价"算例的构建,说明泛综合评价的理论为不同利益主体之间的民主决策提供了可能。本文的研究可为大数据背景下群体智慧的挖掘、民主决策的结果分析等实际应用问题提供理论和技术支撑。     

基于综合集成思想的区域人才聚集系统演化趋势预测方法研究

应用分析开放复杂巨系统的综合集成方法论思想,设计区域人才聚集系统演化趋势预测方法,包括定性分析、定量模型构建、定性结合定量确定模型参数和定量结合定性仿真运行四个阶段,并以曹妃甸新兴工业区为案例,预测了该地区人才聚集的未来趋势。     

制造业集成成本管理模式研究

随着经济环境的变化,传统成本管理方法在强化制造业成本管理方面显得乏力,迫使人们不得不从新的视角来审视制造业现行的成本管理系统,这为制造业成本管理创新带来机遇.本文运用集成管理理论,以系统、集成的思想,提出了集成成本管理的体系结构,并构建了集成成本控制模型.     

高校数字档案馆信息集成与应用研究

高校档案馆传统的档案服务模式是“我提供什么,用户接受什么”,而在信息时代,高校档案馆需要构建“用户需要什么,我提供什么”的个性化服务模式,使档案馆的信息服务从被动型服务向主动型服务转化.本文旨在按照从实践中来、上升到理论、再指导实践的思路,探讨信息技术环境下高校数字档案馆信息集成与应用的研究框架、研究路径,研究方法和应用前景.     

会计信息系统财务与业务集成分析

本文主要从软件应用、理论研究、信息系统集成角度分析会计信息系统发展各阶段会计信息系统的特征、财务与业务集成的程度,以及国内外学者的研究重点和亟待解决的问题,并介绍了协同商务环境下的会计信息系统的特征,发展现状和亟待解决的问题。     

初中语文教育创新方法刍议——试论"大课堂、大综合、大讨论"的大语文观

知识经济时代呼唤基础教育的创新.语文教育在创新教育中占有极其重要的地位.语文教育要打破常规的模式,需要创新为它注入活力,让语文教育向更加正确、健康、文明的方向发展.本文从语文大课堂、大综合、大讨论等几个方面分析如何建立"大语文"观,探讨语文教育创新方法.     

Comments on globalization, interdisciplinary research, myopia and parochialism, government, convergence, and culture

Globalization presents social scientists with a wide variety of issues and challenges that cut across disciplinary boundaries. Disciplinary boundaries encourage specialization and advances in understanding aspects of social behavior, but specialization also creates barriers to more comprehensive understanding of social behavior such as globalization. Successful interdisciplinary efforts entail gains from trade across disciplinary specializations. The papers in this volume help outline an agenda for interdisciplinary investigation of globalization to knock down disciplinary boundaries and encourage gains from trade that further our understanding of globalization. But much work remains before we see real fruits from such efforts.     

Complexity,simplicity, simplexity

“In the midst of order, there is chaos; but in the midst of chaos, there is order”, John Gribbin wrote in his book Deep Simplicity (p. 76). In this dialectical spirit, we discuss the generative tension between complexity and simplicity in the theory and practice of management and organization. Complexity theory suggests that the relationship between complex environments and complex organizations advanced by the well-known Ashby’s law, may be reconsidered: only simple organization provides enough space for individual agency to match environmental turbulence in the form of complex organizational responses. We suggest that complex organizing may be paradoxically facilitated by a simple infrastructure, and that the theory of organizations may be viewed as resulting from the dialectical interplay between simplicity and complexity.     

Flexibility, Hierarchy, Markets

The conclusion that organizations need to become more strategically flexible as a response to increasing environmental dynamism and uncertainty has been an important feature of recent contingency theories of organization design. In this literature organizations have been analysed from the perspective of the development of networks of organizations concentrating on their core competencies and contracting among themselves on a stable long-term basis. This model of inter-firm relationships provides an alternative mode of organizational structuring to that arising from vertical integration, which, by contrast, is seen as fostering strategic inflexibility. In the literature on corporate restructuring and changes in ownership form arising from the markets and hierarchies perspective, we see a similar emphasis on the dysfunctional consequences of large-scale bureaucratic organization. Changes in ownership form are seen as a major means of providing more effective managerial control. In this paper we argue that linking the literature on flexibility emanating from contingency theories of organizational design and the markets and hierarchies perspective provides important new insights into current and emerging forms of organization.     

GMM,GEL, Serial Correlation,and Asymptotic Bias

For stationary time series models with serial correlation, we consider generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators that use heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) positive definite weight matrices and generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) estimators based on smoothed moment conditions. Following the analysis of Newey and Smith (2004) for independent observations, we derive second order asymptotic biases of these estimators. The inspection of bias expressions reveals that the use of smoothed GEL, in contrast to GMM, removes the bias component associated with the correlation between the moment function and its derivative, while the bias component associated with third moments depends on the employed kernel function. We also analyze the case of no serial correlation, and find that the seemingly unnecessary smoothing and HAC estimation can reduce the bias for some of the estimators.     

Trust, confidence, procedural fairness, outcome fairness, moral conviction, and the acceptance of GM field experiments

In 2005, Swiss citizens endorsed a moratorium on gene technology, resulting in the prohibition of the commercial cultivation of genetically modified crops and the growth of genetically modified animals until 2013. However, scientific research was not affected by this moratorium, and in 2008, GMO field experiments were conducted that allowed us to examine the factors that influence their acceptance by the public. In this study, trust and confidence items were analyzed using principal component analysis. The analysis revealed the following three factors: "economy/health and environment" (value similarity based trust), "trust and honesty of industry and scientists" (value similarity based trust), and "competence" (confidence). The results of a regression analysis showed that all the three factors significantly influenced the acceptance of GM field experiments. Furthermore, risk communication scholars have suggested that fairness also plays an important role in the acceptance of environmental hazards. We, therefore, included measures for outcome fairness and procedural fairness in our model. However, the impact of fairness may be moderated by moral conviction. That is, fairness may be significant for people for whom GMO is not an important issue, but not for people for whom GMO is an important issue. The regression analysis showed that, in addition to the trust and confidence factors, moral conviction, outcome fairness, and procedural fairness were significant predictors. The results suggest that the influence of procedural fairness is even stronger for persons having high moral convictions compared with persons having low moral convictions.