Valuing fatal risks to children and adults: Effects of disease,latency, and risk aversion

We examine heterogeneity of willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce risks of fatal disease and trauma to adults and children. Using a stated-preference survey fielded to a large, nationally representative internet panel, we find that WTP to reduce fatal-disease risks (caused by consuming pesticide residues on foods) are similar for several types of cancer and non-cancer diseases and similar to WTP to reduce motor-vehicle crashes. WTP to reduce risk to one’s child is uniformly larger than to reduce risk to another adult or to oneself. Estimated values per statistical life are $6–10 million for adults and $6–10 million for adults and 12–15 million for children.     

Risk Perceptions and Value of a Statistical Life for Air Pollution and Traffic Accidents: Evidence from Bangkok,Thailand

This paper presents results of two contingent valuation surveys conducted in Bangkok measuring individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce mortality risk arising from two risk contexts: air pollution traffic accidents Results from the risk perception survey disclose that respondents view the two risks differently. WTP to reduce air pollution risk is influenced by degrees of dread, severity, controllability and personal exposure, while WTP to reduce traffic accident risk is influenced by perceived immediate occurrence. Nevertheless, the value of a statistical life (VSL) for both air pollution and traffic accidents are comparable (US$0.74 to $1.32 million and US$0.87 to $1.48 million, respectively). This indicates that the risk perception factor alone has little impact on the VSL, a finding similar to previous studies using program choice indifferences.JEL Classification: I18, D61, J17, J28     

A reassessment of the association between social disorganization and youth violence in rural areas

Objective: To study the association between social disorganization and youth violence rates in rural communities. Method: We employed rural Missouri counties (N = 106) as units of analysis, measured serious violent victimization data via hospital records, and the same measures of social disorganization as Osgood and Chambers (2000). Controlling for spatial autocorrelation, the negative binomial estimator was used to estimate the effects of social disorganization on youth violence rates. Results: Unlike Osgood and Chambers, we found only one of five social disorganization measures, the proportion of female-headed households, to be associated with rural youth violent victimization rates. Conclusion: Although most research on social disorganization theory has been undertaken on urban areas, a highly cited Osgood and Chambers (2000) study appeared to extend the generalize ability of social disorganization as an explanation of the distribution of youth violence to rural areas. Our results suggest otherwise. We provide several methodological and theoretical reasons why it may be too early to draw strong conclusions about the generalize ability of social disorganization to crime rates in rural communities.     

Effects of Disease Type and Latency on the Value of Mortality Risk

We evaluate the effects of disease type and latency on willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce environmental risks of chronic, degenerative disease. Using contingent-valuation data collected from approximately 1,200 respondents in Taiwan, we find that WTP declines with latency between exposure to environmental contaminants and manifestation of any resulting disease, at a 1.5 percent annual rate for a 20 year latency period. WTP to reduce the risk of cancer is estimated to be about one-third larger than WTP to reduce risk of a similar chronic, degenerative disease. The value of risk reduction also depends on the affected organ, environmental pathway, or payment mechanism: estimated WTP to reduce the risk of lung disease due to industrial air pollution is twice as large as WTP to reduce the risk of liver disease due to contaminated drinking water.     

A multilevel analysis of the determinants of willingness to pay to prevent environmental pollution across countries

This paper discusses the extent to which individual and contextual level factors influence the likelihood of individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) to prevent environmental pollution. A multilevel probit regression framework was set up to explain WTP to prevent environmental pollution. We use data from the World Values Survey (WVS), which contains socio-economic and socio-demographic information, and merged it with country level covariates. Compared to many previous studies, our dataset encompasses a more indepth set of individual level covariates. We find that rich people, individuals with higher education, as well as those who possess post-materialist values are more likely to be concerned about environmental pollution. This study reveals that in developed countries, 90% of country variation in WTP to prevent environmental pollution can be explained by individual characteristics. This portion reduces to 80% in the case of developing countries. An interesting feature in our study is the ability to investigate the effect of contextual factors on individuals’ willingness to contribute for the environment. We observe that both democracy and government stability reduce individuals’ intention to donate to prevent environmental damage mainly in developed countries.     

Beyond Symptoms: Crime Prevention And Community Development

Crime and crime prevention are currently ‘hot’ political and social issues. Fuelled by public calls for ‘solutions’, the responses by politicians and planners are typically ‘quick‐fix’ with emphasis on management of particular problems as, and where, they arise. We argue for longer term strategies aimed at dealing with the political, social, economic and cultural factors associated with crime. In doing so, we explore the potential of community development to contribute to crime prevention, particularly ‘community’ or ‘street’ crime and violence. Theoretical and practice intersections between community development and certain crime prevention approaches are identified – notably those which link crime and violence with dis‐empowerment, poverty, inequality, exclusion, the learning of violence within families and communities, and lack of opportunity for children and young people to develop their potential. We conclude that there is plenty of evidence to support the view that community development processes should be used more frequently in crime prevention programmes.     

The value of mortality risk reductions in Delhi,India

We interviewed commuters in Delhi, India, to estimate their willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce their risk of dying in road traffic accidents in three scenarios that mirror the circumstances under which traffic fatalities occur in Delhi. The WTP responses are internally valid: WTP increases with the size of the risk reduction, income, and exposure to road traffic risks, as measured by length of commute and whether the respondent drives a motorcycle. As a result, the value of a statistical life (VSL) varies across groups of beneficiaries. For the most highly-exposed individuals the VSL is about 150,000 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) dollars.

Willingness to pay for mortality risk reductions: Does latency matter?

Using results from two contingent valuation surveys conducted in Canada and the U.S., we explore the effect of a latency period on willingness to pay (WTP) for reduced mortality risk using a structural model. We find that delaying the time at which the risk reduction occurs by 10 to 30 years reduces WTP by more than 60% for respondents in both samples aged 40 to 60 years. The implicit discount rates are equal to 3.0–8.6% for Canada and 1.3–5.6% for the U.S. JEL Classification Q51 · Q58 The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the USEPA or of the World Bank, its Executive Directors or the countries they represent.     

Age, Health and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Residents

We present the results of a contingent valuation survey eliciting willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reductions. The survey was self-administered using a computer by 930 persons in Hamilton Ontario aged 40 to 75. Visual and audio aides were used to enhance risk comprehension. Mean WTP figures for a contemporaneous risk reduction imply a value of a statistical life of approximately C$l.2 to C$3.8 million (1999 C$). Mean WTP is constant with age up to 70 years, and is about 30 percent lower for persons aged 70 and older. WTP is unaffected by physical health status, but is affected by mental health.     

Elicitation of health values from mortality risk reduction

There are concerns regarding uncertainty about the accuracy of applying available empirical willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates for reducing accidental deaths to value changes in risks of pollution-related deaths. In this study, we develop a theoretical model on defining WTP, and its determinants, and derive WTP estimates for changes in pollution-related mortality risks with varying morbidity and timing attributes. A survey is designed and conducted with 100 subjects. Each subject was to complete five choice sets and provided a range of implicit values of statistical life (VSL). The choices are estimated using the logit procedure. And, using the results of estimated multinomial logit model, the VSL is estimated to about $6.2 million.     

Poverty, Socioeconomic Change, Institutional Anomie, and Homicide

Objective. This study examined institutional anomie theory in the context of transitional Russia. Methods. We employed an index of negative socioeconomic change and measures of family, education, and polity to test the hypothesis that institutional strength conditions the effects of poverty and socioeconomic change on homicide rates. Results. As expected, the results of models estimated using negative binomial regression show direct positive effects of poverty and socioeconomic change and direct negative effects of family strength and polity on regional homicide rates. There was no support, however, for the hypothesis that stronger social institutions reduce the effects of poverty and socioeconomic change on violence. Conclusions. We interpret these results in the Russia-specific setting, concluding that Russia is a rich laboratory for examining the effects of social change on crime and that empirical research in other nations is important when assessing the generalizability of theories developed to explain crime and violence in the United States.     

Reference-dependent valuations of risk: Why willingness-to-accept exceeds willingness-to-pay

The gap between willingness-to-pay (WTP) and willingness-to-accept (WTA) benefit values typifies situations in which reference points—and direction of movement from reference points—are consequential. Why WTA-WTP discrepancies arise is not well understood. We generalize models of reference dependence to identify separate reference dependence effects for increases and decreases in environmental health risk probabilities, for increases and decreases in costs, and reference dependence effects embodying the interaction of two changes. We estimate separate reference dependence effects for the four possible cost and health risk change combinations using data from our choice-based experiment for a nationally representative sample of 4,745 households. The WTA-WTP gap is due largely to the reference dependence effects related to costs. Standard models of reference dependence are not consistent with the results, as there is an interactive effect. Estimated income effects are under a penny and thus cannot account for higher values of WTA relative to WTP.     

The effects of mass shootings on gun sales: Motivations,mechanisms, policies and regulations

Surges in firearm sales after mass shootings have been well documented in the United States. This study presents three main findings regarding the impact of mass shootings on firearm demand and the moderating roles played by political and regulatory climates. First, mass shootings led to an immediate but temporary increase in gun sales. This effect continued for approximately 3–6 months after the incidents and was larger for shootings with a greater number of fatalities. Second, the association between mass shootings and gun sales was significant only under Democratic presidents. The party affiliation of the state legislature and state-level gun control did not moderate this association. Third, the increased firearm sales after mass shootings did not result in a higher level of firearm ownership. It appeared most purchases were made by current gun owners stockpiling additional firearms, thus indicating the fear of stricter gun control as a likely motivation. This study offers the following policy implications: (a) the public debates concerning gun violence could have the unintended consequence of raising gun demand among current owners, (b) the message of tightening gun control could increase the total stock of firearms in circulation, and (c) the regulations to prevent future mass shootings may be better addressed by the state government as a state-level regulation does not trigger demand response among potential consumers.     

Responding to violence with guns: Mass shootings and gun acquisition

Although some sources have observed an increase in the number of gun purchases following mass shootings, empirical research investigating this pattern is limited. Appraisal Theory suggests that mass shootings contribute to fear of victimization through media exposure. Desire for self-protection is the primary reason many individuals own and purchase guns. This paper examines this link by assessing the effects of six mass shootings that took place in the 2000–2010 time period. This study examines effects for gun acquisition nationally and regionally as well as timing-specific patterns in gun acquisition following these events. Gun acquisition counts are approximated from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS). Results indicate a positive but delayed association between mass shootings and the number of NICS background checks. Implications of this finding for violence and possibilities for future research are discussed.     

A Tale of Two Border Cities: Community Context,Ethnicity, and Homicide*

Objective. Using Poisson‐based negative binomial regression, we estimate the effect of neighborhood factors on homicides in two cities (San Antonio, Texas and San Diego, California) that have large Mexican‐origin populations. Methods. Three independent data sources (official homicide police reports, medical examiner records, and the U.S. Census) are used to construct the dependent homicide, and independent neighborhood, variables. Census tracts represent the unit of analysis, which serve as a proxy for neighborhoods. Given the spatial nature of the data, spatial estimation procedures were also modeled. Results. Spatial proximity to violence, neighborhood disadvantage, and affluence (in San Antonio) consistently buffered homicide across neighborhoods, even in heavily populated Latino neighborhoods. Conclusions. Spatial embeddedness and neighborhood characteristics are important for improving our understanding about ethnic neighborhood variations in levels of violence. Comparative approaches across places, namely, Latino‐dominated cities, can yield considerable insight into how the local context intersects race/ethnicity and violent crime.     

Individual perceptions and the social construction of hate crimes: A factorial survey

Although the rapid diffusion of hate crime legislation since the 1980s indicates widespread success of the antiviolence movement at the policy level, effective responses to hate crimes – such as reporting incidents to authorities – are partly contingent on how individuals initially interpret potential incidents. This paper investigates the degree to which individuals’ perceptions of concrete events of harassment and violence mirror the interpretive frameworks offered by proponents of hate crime legislation. Specifically, the study examines the determinants of definitions of hate crime and perceptions of seriousness, focusing on both incident-level and respondent-level variables. Using data from a multilevel factorial survey gathered from a sample of undergraduates, I find a general alignment between the political construction of hate crimes and college student perceptions of incidents of harassment and violence, although sensitivity to hate crimes varies by witness demographic and attitudinal characteristic.     

暴力文化的社会危害性

文化是一个民族最核心最牢固的特质,它反映了社会大多数成员的价值观和行为方式。文化以各种方式渗透到社会生活的各个领域,对个体的生活及整个社会的运行产生着极大的影响。暴力文化背离了主文化方向成为违法犯罪的诱因。它对人们行为的影响特别是它与暴力型犯罪的相关性引起的社会危害受到了人们的关注。我们要正确认识暴力文化的社会危害性,提高广大群众认识和利用媒体的能力。加强优秀传统文化教育,加强文化市场管理。     

Valuing Mortality-Risk Reduction: Using Visual Aids to Improve the Validity of Contingent Valuation

We investigate the validity of contingent valuation (CV) estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL). We test for sensitivity of estimated willingness to pay (WTP) to the magnitude of mortality-risk reduction and for the theoretically predicted proportionality of WTP to risk reduction using alternative visual aids to communicate risk. We find that WTP is sensitive to the magnitude of risk reduction for independent subsamples of respondents presented with each of three alternative visual aids, but not for the subsample presented with no visual aid. Estimated WTP is consistent with proportionality to risk reduction for the subsamples presented with a logarithmic scale or an array of 25,000 dots, but not for the subsample receiving a linear scale. These results suggest that CV can provide valid estimates of WTP for mortality-risk reduction if appropriate methods are used to communicate the risk change to respondents.     

Precautionary behavior and willingness to pay for a mortality risk reduction: Searching for the expected relationship

This paper examines within-sample correlation between six different precautionary behaviors and stated willingness to pay for a mortality risk reduction. The paper also shows estimates of the value of a statistical life based on seat belt and bicycle helmet use as well as based on the stated willingness to pay for a risk reduction in traffic mortality. Contrary to the theoretical expectations, no correlation is found between precautionary behavior and stated willingness to pay. One major explanation is that females and the elderly take more precaution, but state a lower WTP for a risk reduction. The estimates of VSL from the different approaches are $11.0 million, $5.0 million and $2.8 million from stated WTP, bicycle helmet use and seat belt use, respectively.

Willingness to Pay for Health Protection: Inadequate Sensitivity to Probability?

Efficient investments in health protection require valid estimates of the public's willingness to forgo consumption for diminished probabilities of death, injury, and disease. Stated valuations of risk reduction are not valid measures of economic preference if the valuations are insensitive to probability variation. This article reviews the existing literature on CV studies of reductions in health risk and finds that most studies are poorly designed to assess the sensitivity of stated valuations to changes in risk magnitude. Replication of a recent study published in this journal by Johannesson et al. (1997) demonstrates how serious the problem of insensitivity can be, even for a study that reports plausible results. New empirical results are presented from telephone surveys designed to provide internal and external tests of how WTP responds to size of risk reduction. The effect of variations in instrument design on estimated sensitivity to magnitude is examined. Overall, estimated WTP for risk reduction is inadequately sensitive to the difference in probability, that is, the magnitude of the difference in WTP for different reductions in risk is typically smaller than suggested by standard economic theory. Additional research to improve methods for communicating changes in risk is needed, and future studies of stated WTP to reduce risk should include rigorous validity checks.