Sexual and Reproductive Strategies Among Serbian Gypsies

This paper deals with a full range of sexual and reproductive behaviors among different tribes of Gypsies in Serbia. The examined traits include rates of fertility, mortality, age distribution, education, crime rates, and parental care. In addition, Gypsy traditions of culturally prescribed sexual behavior are also studied. It is found that Gypsy tribes employ different reproductive strategies, ranging from an extreme, for humans, r (reproductive) strategy to a more typical K (parental) strategy. The reasons bringing about these differences come from the Gypsies' readiness to adjust their behavior and reproduction in order to create the most favorable strategy in a given environment. This paper elucidates and contrasts the more typical r-selected Gypsies with a group of K-selected Gypsies living in a Serbian village.     

Reflections on sustainability,population growth,and the environment

The related terms, sustainable and sustainability, have become popular and are used to describe a wide variety of activities which are generally ecologically laudable. At the same time, the term compromise is heard more frequently because the needs of the environment often are in conflict with the needs of humans. A brief examination of the question of compromise shows that a series of ten compromises, each of which saves 70% of the remaining environment, results in the saving of only 3% of the environment. Judging from the ways in which the terms sustainable and sustainability are used, their definitions are not very precise, especially when compromises are involved. An attempt is made here to give firm definition to these terms and to translate the definition into a series of laws and hypotheses which, it is hoped, will clarify the implications of their use. These are followed by a series of observations and predictions that relate to sustainability.     

Earth,the Business of the Future: From Ego Energy to Eco Energy

Just as we have a turn around manager to save a failing business organization, so it is held, we need a turn around perspective to retrieve the Earth from being in a deficit position. Hence the paradoxical emphasis upon the Earth as the business of the future. Two important distinctions are offered which together provide a new frame of reference for bonding the human and the Earth. The initiating event for the first distinction was a business conference whose purpose was to explore the emerging domain of ego energy. In a parallel way, it is proposed we explore the yet to be discovered domain of eco energy. With eco energy we open our narrowed human window to cosmic perception. With cosmic perception, the energy of the universe can flow through us. The second distinction is between looking at and seeing. Looking at refers to treating our world as a collection of objects. As a collection of objects the Earth can be processed as a series of business transactions. With seeing we relate to our world as a communion of subjects. Such seeing offers transforming power for the human and the Earth to engage in the dialogue of powerful listening and speaking on both individual and planetary scale. These two sets of distinctions are sounded like echo chambers against ten ecologically guiding statements. These ten guiding statements become a reality-testing, experiential framework. Such a turn around perspective offers a different vision to be operationalized in our individual, community, and business lives. Then we can see clearly and respond with eco energy to the Earth, the business of the future!     

Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessments of Societal Metabolism: Integrating Biophysical and Economic Representations Across Scales

The crucial challenge for integrated analyses of socioeconomic systems is keeping coherence in their multidimensional representation. Our approach describes the hierarchical structure of socioeconomic systems using the profile of allocation of human activity over a set of compartments defined at different hierarchical levels (e.g., whole countries, economic sectors, individual households). Compartments are characterized in terms of intensive variables (intensity of both exosomatic energy flows and added value flows per unit of human activity) and the extensive variable Total Human Activity population. In this way, relations of congruence across hierarchical levels can be used to link non-equivalent analyses. That is, changes in demographic variables, economic variables, technical coefficients, indices of environmental loading, institutional settings, and social aspirations are no longer independent of each-other even if described within different scientific disciplines.     

Community-Run Fisheries: Avoiding the “Tragedy of the Commons”

This paper discusses how fishing communities around the world avoid destructive overfishing through local and largely informal self-management. The paper offers many examples that undermine the widespread assumption that the tragedy of the commons is inevitable without government regulation.     

Do family caps reduce out-of-wedlock births? Evidence from Arkansas,Georgia, Indiana,New Jersey and Virginia

During the 1990s, 23 states implemented family cap policies as a means to reduce the incidence of out-of-wedlock births among welfare recipients. Using Current Population Survey data from 1989 to 1999, we examine the impact of family cap policies on the birth rates of single, less-educated women with children. We use the first five states that were granted waivers from the Department of Health and Human Services to implement family caps as natural experiments. Specifically, we compare trends in out-of-wedlock birth rates in Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, New Jersey and Virginia to trends in states that did not implement family caps or any other waivers prior to the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act. We employ several techniques to increase the credibility of results from our natural experiment, such as the inclusion of multiple comparison groups, controls for differential time trends, and difference-in-difference-in-differences estimators. Our regression estimates generally do not provide evidence that family cap policies reduce the incidence of out-of-wedlock births among single, less-educated women with children.     

On Exponential Growth and Half-Lives: A Comment on Bermingham

A recent paper (hereafter referred to as the Paper), Bermingham (2003), presented what appeared to be an analytical review of current situation of declining population growth rates in many parts of the world. The Paper suggested that the increasing growth rates before about 1970 constituted exponential growth, but that the currently declining growth rates were not exponential growth. Hence, the paper asserted that we should not use the terms exponential growth and doubling times in describing the current situation. Many of the suggestions in the paper are contrary to established mathematics. These suggestions are examined here in some detail.     

Multiple-Scale Integrated Analysis of Farming Systems: The Thuong Lo Commune (Vietnamese Uplands) Case Study

This paper presents an application of an innovative methodological tool for the integrated assessment of farming systems (Multi-Objective Multiple-Scale Integrated Representation). It describes the effect of rural development in parallel on economic and ecological reading at different levels: household, village, and the commune comprising 3 villages. Socio-economic and environmental indicators are organized into integrated packages across scales. This is an ex-post facto analysis of a program of rural development implemented in the Central Vietnamese uplands in 1995 by the central government with the collaboration of FAO. We conclude that two classic problems can only be faced by using an integrated analysis across levels: Large scale generalizations can miss important location-specific characteristics, and exclusive focus on location specific issues carries the risk of loosing the big picture.     

A simple method for projecting or estimating α and β: An extension of the Brass Relational Gompertz Fertility Model

This paper proposes a simple method that analytically links the parameters and , which are not demographically interpretableand measurable in the Brass Relational Gompertz Fertility Model, with demographic measures of median age and interquartile range. We also extend the Brass model that deals only with age-specific fertility to age-parity-specific fertility, first marriage, divorce, remarriage, and leaving the parental home. The method has been successfully tested by fittings to 180 reliable observed demographic schedules in various countries and periods, and to nearly 10,000simulated schedules with various combinations of possible values (including the extremes) of and . Our proposed method that uses median age and interquartile range instead of and as input is useful in the population and family household projections. It releases the traditionalunrealistic assumption in population projections that the curve of the fertility schedule moves to the right or left in a parallel way. Instead, using our proposed method, one can assume that the demographic events would be delayed or advanced, while the curve becomes more spread or more concentrated, or, more specifically, assume that young people delay the events more than the older persons do, or vice versa. Our proposed method is also useful to formulate assumptions on future demographic trends for purposes of policy analysisand planning. It can be used to indirectly estimate demographic schedules when the detailed age-specific data are not currently available, which is useful for developing countries and sub-region studies in developed countries. A crucial point for a successful application of the method is that the standard schedule chosen can capture the general pattern of the demographic process in the population under study.     

Three Centuries of Global Population Growth: A Spatial Referenced Population (Density) Database for 1700–2000

The Earths surface has changed considerably over the past centuries. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the early 1700s, humans from the Old World started to colonize the New World. The colonization processes lead to major changes in global land use and land cover. Large parts of the original land cover have been altered (e.g., deforestation), leading to extra emissions of GHGs to the atmosphere and enhancing global climate change. The spatial and temporal aspects are still not very well known. More and more global integrated environmental assessments concerning global sustainability require long time series of global change indicators, of which population is an important one. This study presents an update of the geo-referenced historical population maps for the period 1700–2000, part of the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE), which can be used in integrated models of global change and/or global sustainability.     

City Effect and Urban Overload as Program Indicators of the Regional Policy

The paper explores the constraints of an optimal regional policy, and itidentifies them through program indicators of city effect and overload.Based on a `programming approach to the regional analysis, and on the``optimal centrality' concept as meeting point of the city-effect andcity-overload curves, the paper outlines a core list of indicators ofcity-effect and overload, quantifying their dimensions (as findings ofresearch conducted for the European Commission, from 20 cities in 4countries of the EU: France, Germany, Italy and United Kingdom).Further, a ``strategy' for an appropriate urban-regionalreorganization, and for an appropriate `ambit of measuring urban lifequality, is outlined. And finally the misleading risks of comparisons inthe wrong spatial `ambit of data collecting about quality of life, arediscussed.     

Native wage impacts of foreign labor: a random effects panel analysis

Natives often fear labor market competition of foreigners, as they may induce declining wages and rising unemployment as in the case of natives and immigrants being substitutes. However, there is also the potential that they are complements, producing positive wage and employment effects. This issue is examined in a framework with two types of labor, such that low qualified native and immigrant workers (blue collar), although substitutes for one another, are potentially complements to high qualified native workers (white collar). This is thought to accurately reflect the past West German immigration experience. Examining the wage functions of white and blue collar natives in a random effects panel model using a vast sample of micro data, we actually find that foreigners negatively affect the wages of Germans on the whole. Relatively small gains are made by white collar employees with less than 20 years experience, but these are outweighed by the larger negative effects experienced by blue collar employees.We wish to thank Don DeVoretz, Riccardo Faini, Andrea Ichino, and participants at the following 1993 conferences for their valuable comments where drafts of this paper were presented: The Economics of International Migration: Econometric Evidence at the University of Konstanz, Internationale Migration und Arbeitsmarkt der Schweizerischen Gesellschaft fur Statistik und Volkswirtschaftslehre at the University of St. Gallen, Adjustment Policies in Previously Centrally Planned Economies: Which Lessons from Developing Countries Experiences at the University of Brescia, and Congress of the European Society for Population Economics in Budapest. Substantial revisions were made following the valuable suggestions of two anonymous referees and the special issue editor Wolfgang Franz, for which we are grateful.     

Environmental Migration and Sustainable Development in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River

This paper explores the demographic impacts of the implementation of the Grand Development in West China policies and environmental rehabilitation projects in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. It analyses the interaction between the environmental reconstruction and environment-related migration in this region. The intertwined nature of environmental, ethnic, and poverty problems not only bears negatively upon the alleviation of poverty conducing to the accruement of wealth of the poverty-stricken population, but also hinders the rehabilitation of the environment. It brings forth some opinions regarding improving the capacity of regional sustainable development through environmental migration.     

Macro-effects of changes in household preferences for children

The basic ideas underlying the analysis in this paper are that family size can be viewed as an economic life cycle decision and that there are decision trade-offs among fertility, consumption, and leisure. A micromodel of life cycle choice is developed and embedded in an economic-demographic macromodel. The macromodel is then used in a series of computer experiments to assess the effects on the population and the economy of changes in household preferences for children. The experiments include factual and counterfactual simulations of Canadian historical demographic experience and simulations of alternative future scenarios. The analysis and conclusions have general relevance for countries that have been through a fertility boom-and-bust sequence.We are grateful for the support received from Health and Welfare Canada's Review of Demography and Its Implications for Social and Economic Policy and from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. We are grateful also to Christine H. Feaver, who carried out the computer-related aspects of the work on which this paper is based.     

Managed growth and optimum population: Irreconcilable concepts

Managed growth is a politically popular rallying point which offends no faction by insisting upon nonnegotiable limits. Subscribers to this philosophy focus upon short-run accommodations to growth which apparently mitigate its physical consequences. Managed growthers react to longterm numerical projections with rejection, if not outright hostility. They may be more amenable to quality-of-life rationales for population limitation evolving from the biophilia hypothesis and ecopsychology. These theories claim that our species needs to exist in proximity to untrammelled wilderness and a natural environment for psychic health and creativity.     

The role of fertility and population in economic growth: empirical research from aggregate cross-national data

Two recently improved sets of cross-country panel data are combined in order to re-examine the effects of population growth and fertility on economic growth. Using a 107 country panel data set covering 1960-85, we find that high birth rates appear to reduce economic growth through investment effects and possibly through capital dilution, although classic resource dilution is not evident in the data. Most significantly, however, birth rate declines have a strong medium-term positive impact on per capita income growth through labour supply or dependency effects.We are very grateful to Allen Kelley for his careful and thoughtful comments on an earlier version of this paper (Brander and Dowrick 1991) which led to a complete re-estimation of our models using updated primary data and reconstructed secondary data sets. We are also grateful to three anonymous referees for very helpful comments. This research was begun while Brander was a Visiting Fellow at the Department of Economics, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. Revisions were carried out while Dowrick was visiting the Department of Economics, University of Warwick. Research assistance was provided by Tracy Tiong. Financial support from the Social Sciences Research Council of Canada and UBC Centre for International Business Studies is gratefully acknowledged.     

Subsidy policies with capital accumulation: Maintaining employment levels

We study a dual economy model of growth and unemployment in the presence of Harris-Todaro type labor migration. The model is a discrete time model of economic growth with given population but endogenous migration of labor. The economy tries to reach development in the quickest possible time while not allowing unemployment to rise above a socially acceptable level. We characterize situations under which maximizing the accumulation of capital in each period is optimal. We also study how particular taxes and subsidies affect unemployment and capital accumulation. Finally, we show that a higher initial capital stock does not necessarily mean a quicker attainment of self-sustained full employment.     

The welfare effects of labour force growth with internationally mobile capital

The effects of labour supply growth on the welfare of preexisting destination and non-emigrating source populations are analysed. This growth occurs in open economies where free trade in capital goods is possible. Traditional small economy arguments for population growth rely on the existence of priced though internationally immobile factors. When all factors are freely-traded and population grows naturally the case rests either on market distortions or common property within families. In an integrated world labour growth can lead to capital flight and increasing wage differentials. With international interactions, immigration increases preexisting welfare in destination countries but generally (not always) reduces it for non-emigrants in source countries. Immigration provides efficiency gains to all originally resident in source countries. Natural population growth anywhere promotes efficiency gains everywhere.     

Spillover Between Work Attitudes and Overall Life Attitudes: Myth or Reality?

It is widely believed that work attitudes influence attitudes toward life overall. We investigated a multivariate model of work attitudes and overall life attitudes using survey data from two nationally representative (U.S.) data sets, one cross-sectional and one longitudinal. Including a comprehensive set of control variables, we found only weak support for the attitudes spillover perspective, suggesting that employees often compartmentalize or segregate their work and nonwork lives. We consider theoretical and practical implications of these findings.     

Changing Industrial Metabolism: Methods for Analysis

Research in the field of industrial metabolism traditionally has been focused on measuring and describing physical flows of economic systems. The metabolism of economic systems, however, changes over time, and measuring material flows is insufficient to understand this process. Understanding the relation between economic activities and material flows can help to unravel the socio-economic causes of these physical flows. Three issues are addressed: The importance of spatial scales and trade flows, empirical analysis of relations between economic development and material flows, and treatment of behaviour of and interactions between stakeholders. For each of these issues, methods for analysis are suggested.