Men’s Migration and Women’s Fertility in Rural Mozambique

Labor migration profoundly affects households throughout rural Africa. This study looks at how men’s labor migration influences marital fertility in a context where such migration has been massive while its economic returns are increasingly uncertain. Using data from a survey of married women in southern Mozambique, we start with an event-history analysis of birth rates among women married to migrants and those married to nonmigrants. The model detects a lower birth rate among migrants’ wives, which tends to be partially compensated for by an increased birth rate upon cessation of migration. An analysis of women’s lifetime fertility shows that it decreases as the time spent in migration by their husbands accrues. When we compare reproductive intentions stated by respondents with migrant and nonmigrant husbands, we find that migrants’ wives are more likely to want another child regardless of the number of living children, but the difference is significant only for women who see migration as economically benefiting their households. Yet, such women are also significantly more likely to use modern contraception than other women. We interpret these results in light of the debate on enhancing versus disrupting effects of labor migration on families and households in contemporary developing settings.     

The Effect of Urbanization on China’s Fertility

The relationship between urbanization and fertility decline is known to be inverse in developed countries. However, the nature of this relationship in developing countries that already have relatively low fertilities is not well-understood. This study aims to illustrate how much urbanization contributed to China’s fertility decline between 1982 and 2008 and forecasts how much it can contribute to future reductions in fertility. The study examines changes in the total fertility rate (TFR) at both the national and provincial levels, given regional differences in the urbanization rate. The results show that changes in rural fertility behavior accounted for most of the decline in the national TFR between 1982 and 2008. This finding suggests that official birth control policies were instrumental in curbing China’s population growth. However, urbanization was responsible for about 22% of the decrease in TFR during this period, and its effect was especially important during the latter years (2001–2008). In most provinces, urbanization associated with a decline in provincial-level fertility. The forecasts indicate that urbanization will become the primary factor behind future declines in national fertility. Given the negative effect of urbanization on the TFR, it is possible to relax the one-child policy without having adverse implications for population growth.     

Young Women’s Dynamic Family Size Preferences in the Context of Transitioning Fertility

Dynamic theories of family size preferences posit that they are not a fixed and stable goal but rather are akin to a moving target that changes within individuals over time. Nonetheless, in high-fertility contexts, changes in family size preferences tend to be attributed to low construct validity and measurement error instead of genuine revisions in preferences. To address the appropriateness of this incongruity, the present study examines evidence for the sequential model of fertility among a sample of young Malawian women living in a context of transitioning fertility. Using eight waves of closely spaced data and fixed-effects models, we find that these women frequently change their reported family size preferences and that these changes are often associated with changes in their relationship and reproductive circumstances. The predictability of change gives credence to the argument that ideal family size is a meaningful construct, even in this higher-fertility setting. Changes are not equally predictable across all women, however, and gamma regression results demonstrate that women for whom reproduction is a more distant goal change their fertility preferences in less-predictable ways.     

The Dynamics of Social Indicator Research for California’s Central Valley in Transition

How can social indicator research improve understanding of community health as well as inform stakeholders about the assets disadvantaged communities have for coping with disparities? This paper describes the development and evolution of the Partnership for Assessment of Communities (PAC) and its best practices for social indicator research. The PAC will be of interest to researchers across multiple disciplines for a number of reasons. First, PAC is a working model of best practices for multidisciplinary scholarly inquiry. Second, it has developed an integrated model of quantitative and qualitative methodology to define and measure community health as compared to traditional quality-of-life indicators. Third, it serves as an example of “action research,” in that the findings have the potential to make an impact on community stakeholders and policy outcomes in the greater Central San Joaquin Valley of California, a region characterized by deep social and economic disparities.     

The Changing Impact of Family Size on Adolescents’ Schooling: Assessing the Exogenous Variation in Fertility Using Twins in Brazil

Researchers have long been interested in the influence of family size on children??s educational outcomes. Simply put, theories have suggested that resources are diluted within families that have more children. Although the empirical literature on developed countries has generally confirmed the theoretical prediction that family size is negatively related to children??s education, studies focusing on developing societies have reported heterogeneity in this association. Recent studies addressing the endogeneity between family size and children??s education have also cast doubt on the homogeneity of the negative role of family size on children??s education. The goal of this study is to examine the causal effect of family size on children??s education in Brazil over a 30-year period marked by important social and demographic change, and across extremely different regions within the country. We implement a twin birth instrumental variable approach to the nationally representative 1977?C2009 PNAD data. Our results suggest an effect of family size on education that is not uniform throughout a period of significant social, economic, and demographic change. Rather, the causal effect of family size on adolescents?? schooling resembles a gradient that ranges from positive to no effect, trending to negative.     

Patterns of Human Development Indicators Across Constitutional Analysis of Children’s Rights to Protection, Provision, and Participation

This study examines children’s images in constitutions and/or amendments as articulated in the Convention on the Rights of the Child while they intersect with the three dimensions of the Human Development Index (HDI) of 2008: life expectancy, educational index, and GDP. The connection between the images of the child and the fulfillment of the dimensions within countries represents the current childhood conditions and determines their future wellbeing. It is the interdependency of the elements of HDI and the premises of the CRC that potentially impact nation-state’s developmental outcome with the process of rights. This study highlights the strength of the connection among the dimensions, and emphasizes the importance of considering children as vital to dialogue around human rights and a human development agenda.     

Fertility Decline,Girls’ Well-being,and Gender Gaps in Children’s Well-being in Poor Countries

The influences of recent dramatic declines in fertility on girls’ and boys’ well-being in poorer countries are understudied. In panels of 67–75 poorer countries, using 152–185 Demographic and Health Surveys spanning 1985–2008, we examined how declining total fertility and women’s increasing median age at first birth were associated with changes in girls’ well-being and gender gaps in children’s well-being, as reflected in their survival, nutrition, and access to preventive healthcare. In adjusted random-effects models, these changes in fertility were associated with gains in girls’ survival at ages 1–4 years, vaccination coverage at ages 12–23 months, and nutrition at 0–36 months (for women’s later first childbearing). Declining total fertility was associated with similar gains for boys and girls with respect to vaccination coverage but intensified gender gaps in mortality at ages 1–4 years and malnutrition at ages 0–36 months, especially in higher-son-preference populations. Later increases in women’s median age at first birth—reflecting more equitable gender norms—were associated with declines in these gaps. Promoting equitable investments in children through family planning programs in higher-fertility societies is warranted.     

Neighborhood Priority or Desegregation Plans? A Spatial Analysis of Voting on San Francisco’s Student Assignment System

In 2011, San Francisco held an unprecedented citywide vote on its public schools’ student assignment policy. Proposition H provides a unique opportunity to learn more about the public’s desire for “neighborhood schools,” as compared to their interest in maintaining districtwide desegregation efforts. This paper takes the approach of applying geographic information system tools and regression analysis to understand the relationships between neighborhood, race, income, and attitudes toward student assignment systems. By comparing the election results with demographics and school quality data, we identify patterns of support for the narrowly defeated proposition. Support for a shift toward neighborhood-based schools was higher in census tracts with high-performing schools, more school age children, high median income, or a large fraction of foreign-born residents, and lower in tracts with a high percentage of Latinos. The shifting race- and class-based politics of the city foreshadow expected demographic shifts in the US.     

Perceptions of Quality Life in Hamilton’s Neighbourhood Hubs: A Qualitative Analysis

This paper examines perceptions of quality of life in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada from the perspective of residents and key community stakeholders. A series of eight focus groups were conducted. Six sessions were held with residents of neighbourhood ??hubs??, areas characterized by high levels of poverty. The following themes were highlighted as significant to neighbourhood quality of life: (1) housing quality and affordability (2) diversity and cultural integration; (3) crime and safety; (4) community engagement and recreation; (5) green space and the physical environment, and; (6) transportation. Two focus groups were then conducted with key informants who provided recommendations for improving quality of life and discussed relevant policy issues such as employment and income security. The findings of the focus groups resonate with local research and policy action in Hamilton, including a new Neighbourhood Development Strategy for the City. This research advocates for decision-makers to support and work alongside context-based, resident-led community development efforts. The hub model, as well as Hamilton??s broader neighbourhood-based research and community development approach may assist social researchers, civic leaders and various levels of government across Canada as they work to improve quality of life in their communities.     

Economic and Political Issues of Fertility Transition in the Arab World—Answers and Open Questions

Population and Environment -     

Does Global Fertility and Cultural Transition Affect Human Development? The Neglected Role of the Demographic Transition

This study approaches the potential influence of the demographic transition on outcomes of human development. By re-conceptualizing demographic transition as global fertility and cultural transition and combining all distal macro forces including modernization, techno-economic heritage, and economic dependency, an integrated model for explaining human development outcomes can be theoretically formulated and subjected to empirical test. A panel regression analysis of available data from all developing countries supports the influence of the distal macro forces and the intervening role played by global fertility and cultural transition in affecting human development. In particular, a four-indicator index of global fertility and cultural transition shows the strongest effect on human development index, even controlling for the lagged dependent variable and the latest most competing explanatory variables. Following the long continuing process of the demographic transition, the empirical implication of this newly constructed index of global fertility and cultural transition for exploring alternative measures of human development and policy implications for third world human development are discussed.     

The Decomposition of Economic Outcomes as a Result of Changes in Brazil’s Male Age–Education Structure

In Brazil, the age and education compositions of the male labor force is changing with great regional variation. Based on Demographic Census microdata, results indicate that cohort size has a negative impact on earnings, but this effect is decreasing over time. In this study we consider the impact on earnings by age and education, as well as estimated income inequality reduction and racial differentials. Fertility decline and improve regarding educational attainment had a significant influence on the decline of income inequality in the country. Moreover, the non-white population has been experiencing less success in relation to educational achievement, compared to the white population.     

Fertility in China: from the 1970s to the 1990s

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Structure and agency in development-induced forced migration: the case of Brazil’s Belo Monte Dam

This paper examines how structure and agency interact to shape forced migration outcomes. Specifically, I ask how structural factors such as compensation policies as well as social, financial, and human capital may either foster or constrain migration aspirations and capabilities. I use longitudinal, semi-structured interview data to study forced migration among farmers displaced by the Belo Monte Dam in the Brazilian Amazon. Results from baseline interviews indicate that nearly all community members aspired to purchase rural land in the region and maintain livelihoods as cacao farmers or cattle ranchers. Constraints limiting the ability to attain aspirations included strict requirements on land titles for properties, delays in receiving compensation, rising land prices, and the lack of power to negotiate for better compensation. Despite these constraints, most migrants succeeded in attaining aspirations, as they were able to mobilize resources such as social networks, financial capital, skills, and knowledge. These findings highlight the importance of considering the relationship between structure and agency within forced migration research. I conclude by discussing how the findings may inform resettlement policies for future cases of development- or environment-induced forced migration.     

Improvements in Life Expectancy: 1960–1995 an Exploratory Analysis

Human history observed significant changes in life expectancy over the last three and half decades (1960–1995). This study attempts to explore the determinant factors behind improvements in life expectancy in most of the countries in the Post World War II period. In this context the study estimates a double logarithmic convergence type model where the dependent variable is relative change of life over the period and the explanatory variables are initial per capita real gross domestic product, initial per capita calorie intake as percentage of requirement, adult literacy rate at the initial point of time, and initial physician per thousand of population. The study estimates different variants of the basic model. Female population has been treated separately. All estimates have been offered for three broad income groups low, middle and high. An attempt is also made to take into account the effects of some public health measures such as access to safe drinking water and access to sanitation.     

Cohort Differences in Women’s Educational Attainment and the Transition to First Marriage in Ghana

This study explores the effects of educational attainment on the transition to first marriage across successive generations of women in Ghana. Considering the significant improvements in women educational attainment and career opportunities in recent decades, the paper questions the tacit assumption of prior research on the time-invariant effect of women’s educational attainment on marriage timing. Using discrete time frailty models with pooled data from the 1988, 1993, 1998 and 2003 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, women with higher educational attainment were found to have longer transition to first marriage than their less educated counterparts. More importantly, the effect of higher education on the transition to first marriage was larger among younger women even after controlling for other factors. The stronger effect among contemporary women has been discussed in relation to ideational changes on family formation and the enhanced career opportunities for contemporary educated women.

An Apathetic Generation? Cohorts’ Patterns of Political Participation in Italy

This article assesses the patterns of political participation of different cohorts in two forms of conventional political participation, attending political parties meetings and donating money to political parties, and in two forms of unconventional political participation, attending meetings of environmental, peace and civil rights associations and attending demonstrations, in Italy. To test the claim that the younger cohorts are less politically involved the article uses Bayesian cross-classified mixed models and repeated survey data collected by the Italian National Institute of Statistics between 1993 and 2012. It is found that the conventional forms of participation are more widespread among “baby-boomers” than among the younger cohorts. Conversely, unconventional forms are increasingly popular in the cohorts born after the 1950s, particularly in the younger ones. The results show that the idea of the Italian younger cohorts as being apathetic and detached from the political sphere may be incorrect.     

Exploring New Life Course Patterns of Mother’s Continuing Secondary and College Education

Population Research and Policy Review - A mounting body of evidence suggests that the life course sequence that once defined contemporary US women’s lives is changing as an increasing number...     

Fertility Intentions of Childbearing Age Couples in Shanghai

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