On the Accuracy of Retrospective Attitudinal Data

Survey researchers usually assume that retrospective data becomeless accurate with the passage of time between event and interview.Available research focuses on retrospective behavioral data,although the findings may be assumed to generalize to retrospectiveattitudinal data. The present study tests the assumption thatattitudes in the past are recalled less accurately over timeand finds it unwarranted. Data from a national sample surveyshow that people who recall attitudinal information about abureaucratic encounter which occurred 10 or more years in thepast generally showed the same pattern of relationships amongaspects of the encounter as did people who had contacted a governmentagency only two or three months prior to the interview.     

Some aspects of prostitution

This study was based on data collected from 87 men during and immediately following participation in a counseling program aimed at assisting them to reduce sexual behaviors associated with high HIV risk. All the men reported having engaged in same‐gender anal or oral sex without condoms during the year prior to enrollment. Three‐month retrospective reports of sexual behavior, solicited just after participation, were compared with reports collected weekly during the same three‐month period. Accuracy of recall over an ensemble of 10 behavior items was quite low, with amount of error positively associated with behavior frequency. In general, exaggerated reports were associated with low‐frequency behavior and underreports with high‐frequency behavior. Because of observed differences in the average frequency of occurrence of the various specific types of sexual behavior, adjustment for event frequency was required to provide adequate analysis of between‐behavior differences in memory error. Estimated functional relationships between behavior frequency and average memory error illustrated that for sexual activity occurring between 1 and 20 times in the three‐month period, there was a significant association between the HTV‐risk level of a behavior and the average extent to which the behavior was forgotten (i.e., underreported). After event‐frequency adjustment, anal activity without condoms—the behavior believed to entail the highest level of risk for HIV transmission, and the behavior about which the counseling program provided the least ambiguous cues regarding risk—was associated with the greatest underreporting error, and the ensemble of unprotected behaviors (i.e., those unaccompanied by condom usage) involved significantly greater underreporting than did protected behaviors. Error rates over the ensemble of behaviors were strikingly low for zero‐frequency events, suggesting the utility of dichotomous ever/never measures in research evaluating activity levels and behavior change. Other analysis techniques for reducing potential recall bias, allowing finer evaluations of behavior frequency and change, were also discussed.     

ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF THE TIMING OF PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT FORMATIONS AND ENLARGEMENTS

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have proliferated over the past 60 years. While a small number of recent studies have examined empirically the economic determinants of the likelihood of a pair of countries having a PTA, this study explains empirically the timing of all PTA formations and enlargements from 1950 through 2006 using duration analysis. Our main and novel goal is to predict (in‐ and out‐of‐sample) a substantive share of these 1,560 PTA events using a parsimonious model with mainly economic variables, taking selection dynamics into account. Our analysis reveals that we can predict correctly in‐sample the actual year of entry into force for 26% of the 1,560 bilateral PTA formations/enlargements in the period 1950–2006 among 10,518 pairings of 146 countries using only a few economic and political variables. Moreover, we can predict correctly in‐sample 57% of these PTA events within a 10‐year window leading up to the event using this model. The model also performs well out‐of‐sample for the near term (82%), but not if the out‐of‐sample period is very long. We conclude with an evaluation of the model's ability to predict the timing of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the European Union's formation and enlargements, and the model's ten most likely post‐2006 PTA events. (JEL F14, F15)     

Predicting serial position effects and judgment errors in retrospective evaluations from memory recall

When forming global impressions in retrospect, the first, the last, and the most outstanding experience often have a lasting impact on the final evaluation of an event, as most prominently captured in the peak-end rule. Such serial position effects in impression formation provide indirect evidence that individuals reconstruct their evaluations by retrieving previous experiences from memory, instead of updating their impression online. Yet, latest work sheds doubt on the ability to predict global evaluations from memory retrieval on the individual level. In three experiments, we aim to quantify how much variability in retrospective evaluations can be attributed to memory retrieval by relating serial position effects in retrospective averaging judgments to serial recall curves from memory. The experiments revealed serial position effects in memory recall and corresponding, but less consistent effects in averaging judgments, demonstrating that individuals better recalled and more heavily weighted the first and last item. For long sequences, memory recall permitted to predict individuals’ averaging error to a moderate to strong degree, even if individuals were unaware of number recall as a potential averaging strategy (Experiment 2). Yet, shorter sequences fail to evidence the same relationship, possibly because individuals attempt to apply more optimal averaging strategies (Experiment 3). We discuss retrieval patterns as markers for distinct evaluation strategies.     

Stability of retrospective reports in depression: traumatic events,past depressive episodes,and parental psychopathology

Research findings based on the retrospective reports of depressed individuals have long been held suspect because of possible negative reporting biases associated with depression. In the present study we assess the stability of retrospective reports of past traumatic events, past depressive episodes, parental depression, and parental substance abuse in a sample of 234 adults whose depression status changed over two assessments conducted one year apart. Depression status was found to affect reporting of number of past depressive episodes and past traumatic events, but not reporting of parental psychopathology. Implications of these findings are discussed for research that relies on the retrospective self-reports of depressed participants.     

OUR NEW MONETARY STANDARD: THE MEASUREMENT AND EFFECTS OF PRICE UNCERTAINTY, 1880–1973*

U. S. annual inflation rates over the last century are analyzed in an attempt to compare price unpredictability in the recent period with that during the 1880–1915 gold standard period. The movement from negative price change autocorrelations in the earlier period to strongly positive price change autocorrelations in the recent period, is shown to imply an upward shift in the amount of long-term relative to short-term price uncertainty. Empirical evidence on the relationship between the demand for money and actual price change, on the adjustment of interest rates to price changes and on the change in the composition of new corporate debt issues is presented. Evidence suggests that only over the last decade has the public generally recognized the fundamental change from a commodity to a fiduciary standard that has occurred in the underlying monetary framework.     

Life Events and Sexual Risk Among HIV-Negative,Heterosexual, Methamphetamine Users

Identifying psychosocial factors associated with sexual risk behavior among methamphetamine users is essential to enhancing HIV and sexually transmitted infection prevention. This study examined the relationship between positive and negative life events and sexual risk behavior in a sample of 100 HIV-negative, heterosexually identified, methamphetamine-using men and women. Negative life event categories included death of a significant other, negative health event involving self or significant other, and child custody or visitation issues. Categories of positive life events included birth or pregnancy involving self or significant other, a positive relationship event, and a positive life change. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that negative life events were positively associated with total number of unprotected sex acts, whereas positive life events were not associated with sexual risk taking. Also, amount of methamphetamine used did not moderate the relationship between life events and sexual risk behavior. These data support future research to identify underlying mechanisms that link negative life events to sexual risk taking in this high-risk population.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT IN THE UNITED STATES, 1953–1978

Barro claims that since the public rationally forecasts and discounts future taxes, government debt does not represent net wealth to the public and therefore does not affect any real economic variables. Then why are there ever deficits? Barro has presented a theory of optimal deficits based on intertemporal tax smoothing. The theory predicts that nominal debt grows in proportion to anticipated inflation, varies contracyclically with respect to real income cycles, and varies procyclically with respect to war cycles. Barro tested his theory using annual American data for 1922-76 and found weak support for his theory. This paper reexamines Barro's tests, using quarterly American data for 1953:Q1 to 1978:Q4 and finds stronger support for Barro's theory than Barro found using annual data. This paper also concludes that state and local governments do not engage in tax-smoothing behavior–––probably due to considerations of migration–––and that the debt held by the central bank should be included in the definition of public debt.     

The reliability of recall measurement in assessing migrant reintegration: Evidence from Ethiopia,Somalia, and Sudan

This article asks whether and under what conditions the use of retrospective or “recall” measurement is reliable. Migration researchers are often forced to retrospectively measure baselines when evaluating the impact of interventions due to the transitory nature of migration, developing country contexts, and hastily assembled policy programmes, a situation exacerbated by Covid-19. This article first theoretically considers the extent to which this approach is reliable and likely to result in biased estimates, as well as its broader advantages, disadvantages, and recommendations for best practice. It then considers the case of the “IMPACT” evaluation of the EU-IOM Joint Initiative for Migrant Protection and Reintegration in which 1774 Ethiopian, Somalia, and Sudanese migrant returnees in 2021 were assessed on a range of reintegration measures, 1095 of whom were measured retrospectively. Regression analyses demonstrate that those measured retrospectively give more negative scores on several “Reintegration Sustainability Scores” in line with some theoretical expectations but contrary to others. However, this—mostly non-statistically significant—effect is largely diminished when the small minority who report finding it difficult to remember the baseline period are removed—suggesting that any retrospective measurement effect results from memory bias rather than, for example, consistency bias. No evidence is found to support several theoretically derived interaction effects. Determinants of self-reported memory are demonstrated and recommendations for usage of retrospective measurement are provided, based on these findings.     

THE EFFECTS OF AUTOMOBILE RECALLS ON THE SEVERITY OF ACCIDENTS

The number of automobile recalls in the United States has substantially increased over the last two decades, and after a record of over 30 million cars recalled in 2004, in the last few years it has consistently reached between 15 and 17 million, and in 2010 alone 20 million cars were recalled. Toyota's recall crisis in 2010 illustrates how recalls can affect a large number of American drivers and the defects connected to them can result in loss of life and serious accidents. However, in spite of the increase in public concern over recalls and the loss of property and life attached to them, there is no empirical evidence of the effect of vehicle recalls on safety. This paper investigates whether vehicle recalls reduce accidental harm measured by the severity of injuries in vehicle accidents. The results of our analysis show that if a recall for a new‐year model is issued, then the severity of injuries of accidents continuously diminishes during the first year after the recall, something we do not find among cars not subject to recalls. This is because defects are repaired over time but also because drivers react by driving more carefully until the defects are fixed. To minimize the losses attached to having dangerously defective cars on our roads, both quick and timely recall issuance are needed and more detailed information on defects should be delivered to owners of defective vehicles. The latter can be made possible through simple but important policy changes by the U.S. government regarding recall information sharing with drivers and insurance companies. (JEL L51, L62)     

Generations,Identities, and the Collective Memory of Che Guevara1

Has the image of Che Guevara lost its power to evoke radical politics in the face of pervasive commodification? The commercialization of this 1960s political icon has called into question the power of the market to shape collective memories. Meanwhile, antisystemic movements of the left continue to erect his image at protest events. In light of this contest over how Che Guevara is remembered, we investigate, using data from a survey of Spanish citizens, who is most likely to recall him. We find qualified support for the theory of generational imprinting—Che is more often recalled by those generations who saw him rise to prominence during their formative years, although prominent as a collective symbol rather than as a living person. Our results also corroborate the claim that historical figures or events are more salient for, and therefore more likely to be remembered by, some subgenerational units than others. Thus, although the younger generations are in general more likely than their elders to recall Che, he is most frequently remembered by the highly educated leftists who espouse postmaterialist and posttraditionalist values and identify more with their local regions than with the nation of Spain. These patterns suggest that, in contrast to the dire predictions of mass culture theorists, the memory of Che Guevara has become increasingly tied to markers of social, ethnic‐regional, and political identity.     

Nonmarital Relationships and Changing Perceptions of Marriage Among African American Young Adults

Cohabitation has become increasingly widespread over the past decade. Such trends have given rise to debates about the relation between cohabitation and marriage in terms of what cohabitation means for individual relationship trajectories and for the institution of marriage more generally. Using recent data from a sample of almost 800 African Americans and fixed effects modeling procedures, in the present study the authors shed some light on these debates by exploring the extent to which cohabitation, relative to both singlehood and dating, was associated with within‐individual changes in African Americans' marital beliefs during the transition to adulthood. The findings suggest that cohabitation is associated with changes in marital beliefs, generally in ways that repositioned partners toward marriage, not away from it. This was especially the case for women. These findings suggest that, for young African American women, cohabitation holds a distinct place relative to dating and, in principle if not practice, relative to marriage.     

Mixed‐Gender Groups,Dating, and Romantic Relationships in Early Adolescence

This study examined dating‐stage and developmental‐contextual models of romantic relationships during early adolescence. Same‐gender friendships, affiliation with mixed‐gender groups, dating, and romantic relationships were investigated in a sample of 1,284 young adolescents of diverse ethnocultural backgrounds. Data were collected cross‐sectionally in Grades 5 through 8, as well as longitudinally in the fall and spring of an academic year. Consistent with a stage model, affiliation with mixed‐gender groups and dating were qualitatively distinct activities that were sequentially organized and facilitated the progression from same‐gender friendships to dyadic romantic relationships. The results also provide insights on how the developmental context may alter stage pathways: Dating activities were incorporated with mixed‐gender affiliations, group‐based romantic stages showed more stability than other stages, and the ethnocultural context influenced romantic timing. Finally, results indicated that participation in romantic activities heightened adolescents' future interest in having a romantic relationship.     

Protest Records,Data Validity,and the Mexican Media: Development and Assessment of a Keyword Search Protocol

While considerable attention has been focused in recent years on questions of selection and coverage biases in media-derived protest data, little has been said about the procedures used to sample media records and scant attention has been paid to non-English-language news sources. This article outlines a Spanish-language keyword search protocol for finding protest event articles, and systematically evaluates it in terms of search validity and efficiency using a two-year dataset constructed from a full-text article search of the Mexican national news agency Noticias de Mexico. Results suggest that this protocol generates data with a high degree of search validity with respect to locating reports of conventional protest event forms, but is problematic with respect to the identification of unconventional protest forms. The significance of these findings for the broader investigation of media-derived protest data is discussed, and directions for future research are outlined.     

Innovations in the measurement of life stress: crisis theory and the significance of event resolution.

Further progress in understanding the significance of stress for psychological well-being requires improved strategies for controlling both inter- and intra-event variability across subjects studied. This paper reports on an innovation in stress measurement suggested by a proposition drawn from crisis theory that recognizes life events as representing opportunities as well as hazards. The crucial contingency is hypothesized to be the outcome of the event with respect to the extent of its resolution in emotional and practical terms. This paper examines the possibility that life events that have been resolved successfully may not contribute to individual stress. Data was gathered from community samples of physically limited individuals and of non-limited comparison subjects. Results from separate analyses of these data generally support this hypothesis.     

Consequences of Dating for Post‐divorce Maternal Well‐being

Repartnering has been linked to health benefits for mothers, yet few studies have examined relationship quality in this context. According to the divorce–stress–adaptation perspective, relationship quality may influence the relationship between maternal well‐being and dating after divorce. The current study examines the consequences of dating, relationship quality, and dating transitions (breaking up and dating new partners) on maternal well‐being (negative affect and life satisfaction). Using monthly surveys completed by mothers over a 2‐year period after filing for divorce, we examined changes in intercepts and slopes of dating status and transitions for maternal well‐being while also testing the effects of relationship quality. Mothers entering high‐quality relationships were likely to report boosts in well‐being at relationship initiation compared to single mothers and mothers entering low‐quality relationships. Mothers entering lower‐quality relationships were likely to report lower levels of well‐being than single mothers. Dating transitions were associated with increases in well‐being. Implications for maternal adjustment are discussed.     

Gambling and Adverse Life Events Among Urban Adolescents

This study explored the cross sectional association between adverse life events and gambling in a sample of 515 urban adolescents (average age 17, 55% male, 88% African American). Approximately half of the sample had gambled in the past year (51%); 78% of the gamblers gambled monthly and 39% had a gambling-related problem. On the other hand, 88% of the sample had experienced at least one life event in the past year, and those experiencing events tended to live in more disadvantaged neighborhoods. The mere acknowledgement of experiencing a stressful life event in the past year (yes/no) was not associated with an increase in odds of being a gambler, with gambling more frequently, or with having a gambling problem. However, when the context of the event was considered, an association was found between directly experiencing threatening and deviant/violent types of events and frequent gambling (OR > 2). Additionally, the probability of being a gambler increased as the number of events experienced increased (aOR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.13, P = 0.013), but problems among gamblers were not associated with the number of events experienced (aOR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.92, 1.11, P = 0.876). During adolescence, life events appear to be connected more with the frequency of gambling rather than with problems related to gambling.     

An Examination of Gender Role Attitude Change Patterns Among Continuously Married,Divorced, and Remarried Individuals

Gender role attitudes influence marital satisfaction and stability and are typically treated as stable traits in adulthood. Theory and retrospective studies suggest changes in the life course based on relationship histories; however, tests of these assumptions are virtually nonexistent. Analyses from a longitudinal, nationally representative U.S. sample of 590 married individuals who vary in their marital experiences revealed both period effects and distinct within-group change patterns. Over a 20-year time period all demonstrate a shift toward more egalitarian attitudes. However, contrary to retrospective accounts asserting a steep increase in egalitarian attitudes in remarriages, prospective data from men and women indicate a curvilinear pattern over time that is distinct from patterns observed for continuously married and divorced/not remarried individuals.