A state-based regression model for estimating substate life expectancy

Life expectancy is an important indicator of the level of mortality in a population. However, the conventional way of calculating life expectancy--constructing a life table--has rigorous data requirements. As a consequence, life expectancy data are not usually available for substate areas. In this article, a regression model for estimating life expectancy is constructed, using state-level data, and is tested against two sets of 1980 life expectancy data: (1) a nationwide sample of metropolitan areas and (2) selected cities, their suburbs, and rural counties in Ohio. An additional test shows the sensitivity of the model's accuracy to errors in one of its input data elements. The results suggest that the model should be given serious consideration for generating life expectancy estimates for substate areas.     

On the ratio-correlation and related methods of subnational population estimation

The ratio-correlation method is one of several methods currently being used in the United States for making postcensal estimates of subnational units such as states and counties. It seems to have been commonly presumed by those writing on the subject that the working of the ratiocorrelation method can be understood simply on the basis of the multiple regression theory. That this common notion may sometimes be untenable is demonstrated in this paper. It is pointed out that the ratio-correlation method of subnational population estimation has certain characteristic features that make its application fall sometimes outside the usual contexts in which the conventional multiple regression theory is applicable. A number of alternatives to the ratio-correlation method are suggested. Some of the alternatives suggested are shown to yield relatively more accurate results when used for estimating postcensal populations of North Carolina counties.     

Child Mortality in Beirut: Six Indirect Estimates Based on Data Collected at the Time of a Birth

Six indirect techniques for estimating child mortality were applied to information on survival status of all children ever born, provided by a sample of 1,252 women delivered at the Maternity Unit of the American University of Beirut Hospital. The results were compared, using as a reference the estimate derived from partial birth histories (ages of surviving children, ages at death of children who have died). Their dispersion is minimal for the probability of dying between birth and fifth birthday, estimated at 48 per thousand. For each mother, the ratio of the observed number of children who have died, to that expected given the lengths of exposure of the children to the risk of mortality, was used as a dependent variable in a multiple regression analysis. Educational level of mothers had a significant effect, but not occupational status of father, religion or consanguinuity.     

A method for combining sample survey data and symptomatic indicators to obtain population estimates for local areas

Past efforts of statistical demographers to compute postcensal population estimates for local units have been hampered by the fact that they have had to rely completely on symptomatic information. In this paper, a new method of postcensal estimation is presented in which the symptomatic information is combined with sample data by means of a regression format. Combining symptomatic information on births, deaths, and school enrollment with sample data from the Current Population Survey, county estimates of population growth were computed by means of the new method for the postcensal period after 1960. These estimates were tested for accuracy by comparison with a set of special censuses which were conducted between 1964 and 1967 in 75 counties. The results of this test are promising, but not conclusive. A more conclusive test is currently underway using 1970 data. While the method has been tested as a means for estimating population growth, it is to be emphasized that it can be used to compute postcensal estimates for any variable for which the necessary symptomatic information and sample data are available.     

Estimation of mortality from orphanhood in adulthood

This paper extends earlier research into methods for estimating adult mortality from information on the recent incidence of orphanhood. It presents a series of regression coefficients for estimating female and male mortality from synthetic cohort data on the subsequent orphanhood of those who had a living mother or father at exact age 20. Such information can be obtained either where questions about parental survival have been asked in two inquiries or by asking retrospectively about dates of orphanhood in a single survey. Although the method is somewhat sensitive to errors in the reporting of ages and dates, it is a promising source of up-to-date estimates of adult mortality that are free from bias due to the underreporting of the orphanhood of young children ("the adoption effect").     

Equality,economic resources,and structural diferentiation: Dimensions of development in the Northeast United States

This note describes a factor analysis of indicators of income equality, income, employment, and the diversity of commercial, transportation, organization, and other institutions in 300 counties and 94 substate planning and development districts in the Northeast. There were three factors at each level of analysis, representing income equality, economic resources, and structural differentiation. This finding underlines the need to consider the multidimensional character of development in planning and evaluating development programs. Moreover, comparative analysis of the dimensions of development in counties or districts may complement the traditional case study approach to industrialization.     

Improving the measurement of temporal change in regression models used for county population estimates

The ratio-correlation method of population estimation is shown to contain an inconsistent temporal relationship between the model's empirical structure and its actual application. A simple transformation of the model's variables is provided that eliminates the inconsistency. Two tests of the relative accuracy of the original and transformed models show that the transformed model achieves accuracy levels equal to or higher than the original. In one test, all nine years show a higher degree of accuracy, of which four are statistically significant. Several possible reasons are given for the increased accuracy shown by the transformed model. The transformation, termed the "rate-correlation" model, is recommended as a logical starting point in the examination of coefficient stability and spatial autocorrelation as well as a method for estimating small populations.     

The influence of social conditions on mortality rates

In this study the author examines the general problem of estimating the influence of social conditions on mortality rates and suggests that the methods of multiple regression analysis extensively used for this purpose cannot always be relied on to give the kind of results required. The argument is illustrated by reference to the work of Woolf and Waterhouse (J. Hyg., Camb., vol. XLIV, no. 2, 1945) on infant mortality in the county boroughs. The Confluence Analysis of Frisch, applied to their results suggests that the statistical series used by these authors are multicollinear, and use of Hotelling's method of Principal Components suggests that these five series represent not five but only two fundamental influences. One of these, almost equally strongly loaded in three of these series is identified with the ‘general social conditions'— a complex of bad housing and low money-incomes—which these and other writers have studied. This leads to the suggestion that the use of multiple regression analysis in attempts to estimate the separate influences of the individual constituents of this complex are likely to be unprofitable and misleading. It is suggested that the available information relating to social conditions in various districts can be most usefully employed in the form of a complex index which might be constructed by means of some form of Factor Analysis.     

Assessing post-census state poverty estimates

While the decennial census provides poverty figures for states and other subnational geographic units every ten years, their utility declines over the course of a decade. Consequently, there is growing interest in producing post-census estimates for a variety of indicators. This study extends recent efforts to estimate post-census poverty figures for states by producing such estimates using a multiple regression approach. The accuracy of the multiple regression estimates along with recently produced estimates from the Current Population Survey (CPS) are evaluated relative to the decennial census. The mean absolute percentage point error (MAPPE) using the ratio-correlation technique (1.56 percentage points) was somewhat higher than the MAPPE of 1989 CPS (1.37 percentage points) and an average of 1988–1990 CPS data (1.15 percentage points). However, a simple regression technique using data from 1979 to estimate poverty in 1989 produced a set of estimates where the MAPPE (1.37 percentage points) is nearly as accurate as the single-year CPS estimates. Estimates which average regression estimates and CPS-based estimates are more accurate than either regression or CPS estimates used alone. Several suggestions are offered for improving regression estimates.This article is a revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, 1–4 April 1993, Cincinnati, OH, USA.     

The estimation of the fitness function from two samples taken from a population

Summary The fitness of animals subjected to natural selection can be defined as the probability of surviving selection for a given interval of time, or some convenient multiple of this probability. If the fitness of animals is related to some quantitative variableX (such as size) then this relationship is expressed mathematically in the fitness functionw(x) and this function can be estimated by comparing the distribution ofX in samples taken before and after selection. In this note five methods for estimating the fitness function on the basis of samples from a large population are discussed. They are compared on three previously published sets of data and as a result estimation according to weighted multiple regression is recommended.     

Age-parity-specific birth rates and birth probabilities from census or survey data on own children

The ‘own-children’ method is a census- or survey-based reverse-survival technique for estimating age-specific birth rates for years previous to enumeration. In this paper it is extended to estimate birth rates and birth probabilities by parity as well as by age. The refined method is tested for accuracy by comparing ‘own-children’ estimates of age-parity-specific birth probabilities for the United States in 1969 with parallel estimates obtained by the method used in Vital Statistics of the United States. The ‘own-children’ estimates give relatively lower values at ages 15-19 and higher values at ages above 40, but compare well in between. The discrepancies are probably due mainly to adoption of illegitimate children of young mothers by older women. The ‘own-children’ estimate of the total fertility rate is very close to the published vital statistics estimate.     

老年健康数据质量评估问题探讨

评价老年健康数据的标准可分为效度、信度和准确度。效度就是用来测度老年健康的标识或变量是否正确恰当地度量了想要研究的内容。信度是指度量方法的一致性程度或排除随机误差的程度。准确度是效度和信度的统一和综合 ,是观察值与真值间的差距。在老年健康数据质量的评价中 ,我们可以应用诸如单变量描述统计、交叉表分析、均数分析、方差分析、敏感性分析、相关分析、多元回归分析、因子分析、内部一致性分析等众多统计分析方法和诸如条目应答理论等特殊模型对构成老年健康内容的各个变量和指标进行各种效度和信度评估     

Use of the regression of mean crowding on mean density for estimating sample size and the transformation of data for the analysis of variance

Summary An approximate method for estimating the sample size in simple random sampling and a systematic way of transformation of sample data are derived by using the parameters α and β of the regression of mean crowding on mean density in the spatial distribution per quadrat of animal populations (Iwao, 1968). If the values of α and β have been known for the species concerned, the sample size needed to attain a desired precision can be estimated by simply knowing the approximate level of mean density of the population to be sampled. Also, an appropriate variance stabilizing transformation of sample data can be obtained by the method given here without restrictions on the distribution pattern of the frequency counts. Contribution from the Entomological Laboratory, Kyoto University No. 418. Contributions from JIBP-PT No. 52. Aided in part by a grant from the Ministry of Education for the special project research, ‘Studies on the dynamic status of biosphere’.     

Estimating Cuban gross domestic product per capita in dollars using physical indicators

A methodology for estimating levels of gross domestic product per capita (GDP/capita) which obviates the need for estimating GDP/capita in domestic currency and converting to another currency is the physical indicators (PI) approach developed by Janossy-Ehrlich. Using this methodology, estimates of Cuban GDP/capita in dollars for four years (1965, 1970, 1975 and 1977) have been made. The estimates rely on the relationships between GDP/capita in dollars and levels of consumption or production of 24 physical indicators in 28 reference countries for each of the four years. The relationships are estimated using both univariate and multivariate regression techniques. The PI estimates of GDP/capita in dollars are compared with other measures of Cuban macroeconomic performance to test their reasonableness. The paper closes with some tentative conclusions regarding the applicability of the PI method to the estimation of GDP/capita in dollars for Cuba and for other developing countries.     

An Evaluation of Population Estimates in Florida: April 1, 2000

The housing unit (HU) method is the most commonly used method for making small-area population estimates in the United States. These estimates are used for a wide variety of budgeting, planning, and analytical purposes. Given their importance, periodic evaluations of their accuracy are essential. In this article, we evaluate the accuracy of a set of HU population estimates for counties and subcounty areas in Florida, as of April 1, 2000. We investigate the influence of differences in population size and growth rate on estimation errors; compare the accuracy of several alternative techniques for estimating each of the major components of the HU method; compare the accuracy of 2000 estimates with that of estimates produced in 1980 and 1990; compare the accuracy of HU population estimates with that of estimates derived from other estimation methods; consider the role of professional judgment and the use of averaging in the construction of population estimates; and explore the impact of controlling one set of estimates to another. Our results confirm a number of findings that have been reported before and provide empirical evidence on several issues that have received little attention in the literature. We conclude with several observations regarding future directions in population estimation research.     

Regression analysis of the relationship between the birth rate and proportion of first order births in 1981]

Generally speaking, various fertility indicators such as the birth rate, average fertility rate, and total fertility rate have a close relationship. Various regression analyses have also been made by using different data on population statistics to describe their internal relationships. A regression analysis of the relationship between the birth rate and proportion of first order births, however, has not been made. Data collected by family planning staff at various places show that the places with a high rate of first order births normally have a lower birth rate, and the places with a low rate of first order births very often have a high birth rate. From here we may find that the proportion of the first order births is moving in two opposite directions, and there is no determined relationship between them. It is impossible to use one indicator to calculate the other's indicator. Only a regression analysis can be made to study the relationship between the two. The birth rate and proportion of first order births in 1981 showed some negative relationship, but the use of a regression equation should still be restricted. The regression equation between the birth rate and proportion of first order births may reflect a correct relationship when the region and the number of first order births are fixed. Therefore, any factor which has an impact on the number of first order births also has an influence on the use of regression equation.     

New regression formula to estimate the whole population for recapture-addicted small mammals

Summary We have devised a census formula of curvilinear regression suitable for capture-recapture data of recapture-addicted populations of the Japanese field vole (Microtus montebelli) obtained under a grid-plan with single-catch traps in order to estimate the whole population. The equation is founded on the assumption that the trappable population on the initial day is increased in way of an exponential curve until it reaches to the whole during one trapping period. The effect of trap-preoccupation by marked and multiple collisions is considered in the formula. As a result of its application to field data of the vole, it has turned out that the equation is required for the data gained under the trapping plan with trap spacing 10m, but not for those under the plan with spacing 5m, to estimate the whole. A convenient method of analysis of the formula is offered here, but we have been yet unable to introduce assymptotic variance of estimates. Contributions from JIBP-PT No. 19, carried out by the grant from the expenditure of Education Department to the specific study on “Dynamics of Biosphere”.     

Methods of Estimation on New Born Baby and Construction of Monitoring System under the New Fertility Policy

Abstract： China＇s basic medical care system has achieved universal coverage, laced the system transformation with substance fair. Under the transformation background from universal coverage to integration on urban and rural areas, and the transformation direction from the ＂medical care＂ to ＂health for all＂, through the institutional transition path on system design, service delivery, financial support, this paper points out that how to improve quality of medical care and optimizing the level of health care services, match sustainable funding system and improving payment system, which in public health, medical services, medical care and medicine supply, realize the transtbrmation and the development from universal medical care to health care.     

Polygyny and African couple research

Fertility and family planning research has recently begun to focus on couples, rather than solely on women. High levels of polygyny in sub-Saharan Africa create two interesting problems for couple analyses. First, some men match with multiple wives in a given sample. Hence observations of a dependent variable that are a function of the responses from a polygynous man are not statistically independent. To correct for this, we propose that researchers use the method of generalized estimating equations. The second problem occurs when survey questions do not properly account for men having multiple partners. Variables constructed from such questions may contain error. Until better data are available, we propose that researchers randomly select a wife for each polygynous man to reduce the effects of this error. We illustrate these ideas by studying the determinants of couples having innovative family planning behaviors and attitudes in Niger.