The geography and demography of Indigenous temporary mobility: an analysis of the 2006 census snapshot

Local area population counts and estimates are crucial inputs into policy planning and processes. However, population mobility in general, as well as large numbers of visitors to particular areas, place additional demands on resources and those providing essential services. The literature identifies a pressing need for standardized quantitative measures of the volume, frequency and flows of Indigenous temporary mobility and comparable spatial scales. This paper presents an analysis of census data as it relates to Indigenous temporary mobility, and explores the spatial and demographic complexities involved. While the census remains the only consistent and nationally comprehensive data set on Indigenous temporary mobility that provides important insights, the overall findings from this analysis suggest that it remains a relatively blunt instrument in the task of identifying all the factors in Indigenous temporary movement. We conclude that researchers, policy makers and Indigenous populations must seek and develop additional data sources from which the drivers and dynamics of Indigenous temporary mobility and residency patterns may be identified.     

对2000年人口普查出生性别比的分层模型分析

本文对以往出生性别比研究中的若干观点进行了学术评论,并讨论了个别经验统计分析中的方法问题。在此基础上,本文应用非线性分层模型将2000年全国人口普查1‰数据和1999年的地区级生育政策数据结合起来对出生性别比失调的影响因素进行了初步分析。结果表明,育龄妇女现有子女数量及性别和一些社会特征对出生性别比存在单独的影响,并且肯定了生育政策既存在对出生性别比的直接影响,也通过其与妇女以往生育结果以及其他社会特征之间的交互效应来影响出生性别比。     

Wuxi's pilot population census has laid the foundation for carrying out the Third National Population Census]

In order to lay the foundation for the third national population census, a pilot population census was conducted in Wuxi city, Jiangsu Province in 1980. One goal of this pilot population census was to examine and revise the rules and regulations for the population census. The second goal was to collect practical experience in a population census at a local level, and the third goal was to train a group of working personnel for the national population census. Results from this local population census include information on characteristics of the population, households, and society in general, cultural and educational levels, the economic situation for the local population, marital status, child-bearing status, and the natural mobility of the population. Both the quality and quantity of this pilot population census are excellent. Success is due to an effective and healthy leadership, detailed and well-designed rules and regulations and working principles, support and cooperation from the general public, well-trained working personnel, and suitable use of modern scientific methods for the census.     

Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts

Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination of the two. In this article, we develop and test prediction intervals based on empirical analyses of past forecast errors for counties in the United States. Using decennial census data from 1900 to 2000, we apply trend extrapolation techniques to develop a set of county population forecasts; calculate forecast errors by comparing forecasts to subsequent census counts; and use the distribution of errors to construct empirical prediction intervals. We find that empirically-based prediction intervals provide reasonably accurate predictions of the precision of population forecasts, but provide little guidance regarding their tendency to be too high or too low. We believe the construction of empirically-based prediction intervals will help users of small-area population forecasts measure and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in population forecasts and plan more effectively for the future.     

An analysis of net immigration in census coverage evaluation

National surveys monitored growth in the foreign-born population for the 1980s, especially net undocumented migration's continuing role, but the 1990 census portrayed an even larger foreign-born population than these surveys. Undercoverage in 1990 could have been higher than initially presented because preliminary studies may have insufficiently accounted for decadal net immigration. Assumptions intended to maintain a high undocumented undercount performed poorly when census counts of foreign-born residents became known. Any point estimate for net undocumented migration, calculated as a residual, is likely to be biased by assumptions and data gaps for components of calculating net legal immigration, especially in the direction of underestimation. A reasonable statement is that at least 2.1–2.4 million undocumented residents were enumerated in the 1990 census. The number of unenumerated undocumented residents may easily have ranged between 0.5 million and 3.0 million, and a narrower range of 1 million to 2 million is plausible. Despite the importance of undocumented migration measurement for census evaluation and policy purposes, differences among various undocumented estimates are more likely to stem from discrepancies in universe, reference dates, or individual judgment, rather than analytic refinement. Better measurement of the foreignborn population or its census coverage would aid in setting upper limits on net undocumented migration.     

劳动力流动与地区经济增长差距研究

文章借鉴巴罗、萨拉伊马丁和德拉柯兹有关带移民的经济增长模型,并在此基础上对劳动力流动与地区内、地区间经济增长差距的内在关系进行理论推导发现,劳动力流动加快了中国发达地区经济增长收敛速度,而降低了欠发达地区的经济增长收敛速度。通过考察地区间因劳动力流动而导致的人力资本存量变动及相应的潜在产出外溢与滴漏效应冲击,印证了劳动力流动拉大地区差距的结论。作者还估算了近年来劳动力省际流动状况,并进行实证研究。     

中国人口终身迁移状况分析

“出生地”是用来收集人口迁移信息最常用的调查项目之一。中国以往的人口普查中一直缺少这一调查项目 ,这使得利用出生地资料对人口迁移状况进行分析在国内一直是个空白。中国第五次人口普查在中国人口普查史上首次调查了人口的出生地信息。本文主要根据第五次人口普查提供的出生地资料 ,对中国各省人口的终身迁移水平、流向以及不同年龄人口的终身迁移状况进行了初步分析。     

Demographic Changes in Myanmar since 1983: An Examination of Official Data

According to official estimate, the total population of Myanmar reached 59.8 million in 2010. Yet, serious doubt exists on the reliability of these data. From the body of empirical evidence, best estimates of mortality and fertility are derived and serve to reconstruct prospectively the population of the country from 1983 to 2010. Despite the uncertainty regarding the levels and trends in international migration, the results are unequivocal: given the observed development in mortality and fertility, the population of Myanmar could not have reached 59.8 million in 2010. In addition to encouraging reconsideration of current population estimates, this analysis should also prompt the government and the international community to redouble their efforts in preparing for the 2014 census; carrying out a high‐quality count of the entire population, ideally followed by a post‐enumeration survey; conducting a thorough analysis of the census data; and publicly releasing the census results and accompanying analytical volumes in a timely manner.     

Consensual partnering in Australia: A review and 1991 census profile

This paper is the second in a two-part examination of consensual partnering in Australia. The first part reviewed relevant literature and the deficiencies of census data for capturing the cohabiting population, and presented the basic demography of that population. This part extends the 1991 Census profile of the phenomenon. It traverses socio-demographic (religion and ethnicity), socio-economic (housing, labour force status, occupation and education) and geographic (residential mobility and residential location) attributes of those in consensual unions. It also briefly compares never-married and ever-married cohabitors as two distinct subgroups of the cohabiting population.     

Residential Mobility Across Local Areas in the United States and the Geographic Distribution of the Healthy Population

Determining whether population dynamics provide competing explanations to place effects for observed geographic patterns of population health is critical for understanding health inequality. We focus on the working-age population—the period of adulthood when health disparities are greatest—and analyze detailed data on residential mobility collected for the first time in the 2000 U.S. census. Residential mobility over a five-year period is frequent and selective, with some variation by race and gender. Even so, we found little evidence that mobility biases cross-sectional snapshots of local population health. Areas undergoing large or rapid population growth or decline may be exceptions. Overall, place of residence is an important health indicator; yet, the frequency of residential mobility raises questions of interpretation from etiological or policy perspectives, complicating simple understandings that residential exposures alone explain the association between place and health. Psychosocial stressors related to contingencies of social identity associated with being black, urban, or poor in the United States may also have adverse health impacts that track with structural location even with movement across residential areas.     

Characteristics of the statute of China's population census in 1982]

China's 1982 census is described. The purpose was to contribute to the modernization of socialism. It was based on current conditions in China and conducted under government supervision using the international experience of the US, Canada, the Philippines, and Japan and with UN assistance for census sampling methods and computer data processing techniques. The census was taken with a strong emphasis on procedural quality control. Its target was Chinese citizens living in China and its territories; each individual was to be registered in his own domicile. The 1982 census listed 19 category items, over twice as many as the 1953 and 1964 censuses. Added to the basic information items of name, relationship to head of household, sex, age, ethnic origin, and education, were new items including employment, marital status, total number of births, number of children still living, and number of births, deaths and age at death in the previous year. The new categories instituted progressive approaches such as recording children of unwed mothers; and in education, recognizing experience level of older workers having little formal education but considerable practical expertise, including temporary employees in employment categories. Major difficulties were encountered in the data collection process: wide differences in education level among residents of the various geographical locations; registration of permanent residents using the household registration; registration of the transient population and people living on boats; determining employment classifications; and rendering the data suitable for data processing. However, the census was performed scientifically; census-takers interviewed each family and individual, and data was meticulously collected, calculated, and processed twice.     

人口流动、老龄化对农村居民消费的影响

利用中国1%人口抽样调查和人口普查的省域数据,从四个截面考察人口外流、农村人口老龄化对农村居民消费的影响,研究结果发现,农村人口老龄化对农村居民消费倾向具有显著的正向影响,农村老年人口的生活来源与健康状况是其中的影响因素;人口流动通过直接与间接效应对农村居民消费也表现出显著的正向影响。人口外流与老龄化均不同程度刺激、助长了农村居民消费。完善农村的社会养老及医疗保障体系、适度发展老年产业、规范和鼓励农村人口流动为现时期应对农村人口老龄化和促进农村居民消费提供了重要切入点。     

从第五次人口普查看世纪之交的广东人口状况

1990年以来 ,广东人口状况发生了深刻的变化。这些变化有的符合全国普遍规律 ,有的因受广东特殊社会经济环境的影响表现出不同特点。本文利用第五次人口普查最新数据 ,分析广东人口在数量、分布、素质和结构等方面的现状和特点     

对第五次人口普查年龄结构数据的评估与调整

根据 1 982年、 1 990年人口普查资料和中国统计年鉴数据 ,运用人口存活分析方法、人口目标分析方法对我国第五次人口普查年龄结构数据进行分析、评估和调整 ,以期对深入研究“五普”数据提供参考。     

对近年来中国人口统计学学科发展状况的评述

本文对2002年下半年以来中国人口数据和人口统计分析方法的状况进行描述、归纳和评述,其中包括对普查数据质量的分析、生育率分析、死亡率分析、出生性别比分析、流动人口分析、人口老龄化研究和人口预测及其方法研究,以及对学科发展态势的评价。     

基于“六普”数据的我国人口流动与分布分析

第六次全国人口普查已顺利结束,相关快速汇总数据也已经公布。依据全国和各省最新发布的主要数据公报,对我国人口流动和人口分布状况进行了分析。分析表明:人口流动已成为我国人口普查关注的焦点,不仅首次及时地在全国人口普查公报中发布了人口流动数据,而且第一次披露了市内人户分离人口数据;人口流动对人口的地区分布和城乡分布产生重要影响,十年来我国人口流动方向与人口地区分布变化是一致的,人口迁移流动对我国城镇人口增长的贡献率达到65.36%,是我国城镇化发展最主要的驱动力。     

Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors

A number of studies in recent years have investigated empirical approaches to the production of confidence intervals for population projections. The critical assumption underlying these approaches is that the distribution of forecast errors remains stable over time. In this article, we evaluate this assumption by making population projections for states for a number of time periods during the 20th century, comparing these projections with census enumerations to determine forecast errors, and analyzing the stability of the resulting error distributions over time. These data are then used to construct and test empirical confidence limits. We find that in this sample the distribution of absolute percentage errors remained relatively stable over time and data on past forecast errors provided very useful predictions of future forecast errors.     

Housing Discrimination and Residential Mobility: Impacts for Blacks and Whites

We merge metropolitan-level measures of racial discrimination in housing markets derived from two national housing audit studies, along with tract-level 1980 census data, with the 1979-1985 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to examine the impact of housing discrimination on patterns of residential mobility between neighborhoods of varying racial composition. We find no evidence that housing discrimination in the metropolitan area impedes African Americans' mobility into whiter neighborhoods. Contrary to expectations, in multivariate analyses based on black movers, the level of housing discrimination is positively associated with the percentage of the population that is white in the tract of destination. Housing discrimination against African Americans is positively associated with the rate at which mobile white households move into whiter census tracts. These findings imply that eliminating racial discrimination by real estate and rental agents will fail to increase black residential mobility into racially-mixed and predominantly white neighborhoods. For both black and white households, life-cycle factors, such as age, children, and home ownership, impede mobility out of the current neighborhood. Conditional upon moving, socioeconomic resources, such as education and income, facilitate mobility into whiter neighborhoods.     

瑞士2000年人口普查的事后调查及其对我国的启示

瑞士首次在2000年人口普查后进行了事后调查。本文介绍这次事后调查样本的抽取、数据的采集、对人口普查时点人口数及其方差的估计。     

The function and significance of coding in the population census]

The importance and practicality of a nationally standardized census code for China's population are outlined in this paper. Due to the diversity and size of China's population, the tremendous cost of conducting a national census depends to a large extent on the development of an efficient, simple, comprehensive, and easily completed census form. Codifying information is regarded as a means for greatly simplifying computerized data processing of census forms, although past problems with misinterpretation of instructions by census takers in various parts of the country have caused massive backlogs, errors, and duplication of effort. A key problem discussed is the matter of converting Chinese characters (from census forms) into a computerized format for data processing. It is proposed that a nationally standardized code for reducing economic and technical information be established in order to streamline both national and local surveys.